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Padhraic Garvey on Muck Rack

Padhraic Garvey

Verified
New York
As seen in: ING Think, AU Investing, Flipboard, Investing Canada, Investing.com, Seeking Alpha, MENAFN, bne IntelliNews, Asia Financial, TalkMarkets, Markets Media and
ING's Regional Head of Research, Americas
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Articles

To What Extent Is The Rise In Long-Dated Rates Attributable To AI?

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By Padhraic Garvey Verified, Jan Frederik Slijkerman, Timothy Rahill
| TalkMarkets Verified
Probably 20% of the total influences. And of that, 70% reflects productivity and 25% is AI issuance. It's a view based absolutely on what the numbers say, but in the end it's a judgement call (as objective as doable, overlaid with a large dollop of subjectivity). The spending piece has a small, but not an inconsequential impact There are three basic AI components to account for, namely: The spending piece is relatively straightforward, as it's a straight accounting in GDP.
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Here’s How US Treasury Secretary Bessent Could Tempt The 10yr Yield Back Down

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By Padhraic Garvey Verified
| TalkMarkets Verified
Most of the rise in long-dated rates reflects traditional printed inflation, reactive rate hikes, and a persistence of higher real rates. So, we've actually not had a US fiscal-related selling tantrum. If we did, and it was severe, the US Treasury could feel forced to take more extreme action. We examine how that might look A quick snapshot of what's to come Here we examine a scenario where the US Treasury chooses to take material action on the back end of the curve, targeting lower yields.
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US Money Markets: Value in extensions given the aggressive Fed discount

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By Padhraic Garvey Verified
| ING Think
Since the Fed recommenced T-bill buying in mid-December 2025, it has bought a cumulative $360bn. Overall, the Fed's holdings of all securities (including bills) are up $235bn, to almost $6.4tr. Chair Warsh came into the job in the wake of various suggestions that the Fed should reduce the size of its balance sheet. We covered the issue here, and noted that at the end of 2005, the Fed’s balance sheet was about 5.5% of GDP.
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