Michael Cowden

SMU released May service center inventories on Monday. And if you’re a premium subscriber, I recommend reading the report (here) if you haven’t already. If you’re on the bullish side, you might emphasize that sheet inventories fell yet again, continuing a trend we’ve seen every month in 2026. You might also note that inventories remain at their lowest point since May 2021, another time when the flat-rolled steel market really boomed.

There will be a lot to talk about. Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices are above $1,100 per short ton (st), and many think it’s only a matter of time before they breach $1,200/st. Meanwhile, lead times are stretched and inventories are lean. And so a 2026 rally that has defied nearly all expectations should keep going in the short-term. But what happens as lead times stretch into Q4? (That’s not far away as you’d think with lead times into September at some mills.) Will we see import volumes rebound?

Summer doldrums? Not this year! SMU’s latest steel market survey indicates that an increasing number of steel buyers think prices will continue to rise along with the mercury. What’s more, more survey respondents now think prices will remain on an upswing even as temperatures begin to cool in the fall. That’s a significant change compared to our last survey at the end of May. Before we dive into things, a few quick notes: SMU surveys the steel market every other week.