Michael Hawkes

[Skip to Navigation] Figure 1. Susceptible (S) Infected (I) Recovered (R) Susceptible Epidemiological Model Flow Diagram The variables used in the model include births (Λ), natural deaths (μ), contact rate as an annual periodic function (β(t)), duration of infection (approximately 1/δ), and duration of immunity (approximately 1/γ). Figure 2.

On Aug 1, 2018, the Ministry of Health of the DR Congo declared an outbreak of Zaire Ebola virus in the North Kivu province—the country's tenth outbreak since the discovery of Ebola virus disease in 1976. Since then, the Ebola virus epidemic has spread to the Ituri province and, as of Aug 25, 2018, 83 cases (28 more probable cases) and 44 deaths (28 more probable deaths) have been confirmed. Ebola virus disease is a highly contagious and frequently lethal infection.

Oxygen is an essential medicine for life-threatening hypoxemic illnesses, including pneumonia, which is currently the leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide.1,2 However, oxygen is not available in many pediatric wards in low-income countries.