Michael R. Lowry
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Hurricane Specialist & Storm Surge Expert @WPLGLocal10 Miami. Alum @NWSNHC, @FEMA, @weatherchannel, @UCAR_CPAESS, @DeptofDefense, @FLSERT. Posts my own.
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Articles by Michael R. Lowry
La temporada de huracanes del Atlántico pierde fuerza y entra en su último mes
Históricamente, para el 26 de octubre ya ha transcurrido el 92% de la actividad de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico. Para finales de octubre, la mayoría de las tormentas con nombre ya se han formado y casi todos los huracanes de gran intensidad ya han pasado. Los huracanes en noviembre no son precisamente poco comunes, ya que se han registrado, en promedio, aproximadamente uno cada dos años durante la era satelital (desde 1966).
Atlantic hurricane season throttles down, heads into final month
Historically speaking, the Atlantic hurricane season is through 92% of seasonal activity by Oct. 26. By the end of October most named storms have formed and nearly all major hurricanes have passed. November hurricanes aren’t exactly uncommon – they’ve happened on average about once every other year in the satellite era (since 1966) – but when they form, they tend to do so away from the U.S. and stay out to sea.
¿Qué tan frecuentes son las amenazas de ciclones tropicales en noviembre en el territorio continental de Estados Unidos?
Luego de que la tormenta subtropical Josephine fuera declarada extratropical el jueves por la tarde, apenas 24 horas después de recibir su nombre, el mapa de la cuenca del Atlántico quedó despejado y deberÃa permanecer asà durante el resto de octubre. Ninguno de nuestros modelos de pronóstico a largo plazo muestra posibles sistemas en desarrollo hasta principios de noviembre.
How common are mainland US tropical threats in November?
With Subtropical Storm Josephine being declared extratropical Thursday afternoon â only 24 hours after it was named â the Atlantic basin map is cleared and should stay clear through the remainder of October. None of our long-range models show any development contenders into early November. <b>How common are tropical threats in November?</b> The hurricane season runs through the end of November, and November hits have happened on the U.S. mainland.
Se forma Josephine y pronostican que se transformará en una poderosa tormenta extratropical para el viernes
La tormenta del noreste que ha permanecido frente a la costa este de Estados Unidos esta semana, provocando fuertes ráfagas de viento de más de 40 mph desde los Outer Banks de Carolina del Norte hasta la costa de Massachusetts, una grave erosión de las playas y episodios repetidos de inundaciones costeras de leves a moderadas, adquirió suficientes caracterÃsticas tropicales para ser clasificada como la tormenta subtropical Josephine, la décima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de...
Josephine forms, forecast to morph into a powerful extratropical storm by Friday
The norâeaster thatâs been loitering off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard this week, bringing widespread gusty winds above 40 mph from North Carolinaâs Outer Banks to coastal Massachusetts, serious beach erosion, and repeated rounds of minor to moderate coastal flooding, took on enough tropical characteristics to be classified Subtropical Storm Josephine â the 10<sup>th</sup> named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season â by Wednesday afternoon.
Tormenta del noreste podría convertirse en Josephine esta semana
Una tormenta del noreste de lento desplazamiento, centrada a unas 300 millas al este de los Outer Banks de Carolina del Norte, siguió fortaleciéndose la madrugada del martes. Aunque los frentes asociados al sistema de baja presión, que el Centro Nacional de Huracanes ya designó como Invest 93L, comenzaban a enrollarse y debilitarse, el sistema todavÃa no se habÃa desprendido de su origen no tropical.
National Hurricane Center gives slow-moving nor’easter a medium chance of becoming Josephine this week
A slow-moving norâeaster centered about 300 miles east of North Carolinaâs Outer Banks continued to strengthen early Tuesday. Although the fronts connected to the low-pressure system â now designated Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center â were beginning to wrap up and weaken, it hadnât yet shed its non-tropical origins.
Tormenta costera en desarrollo frente a la costa del Atlántico medio podría convertirse en tropical a finales de esta semana
Una tormenta costera no tropical en desarrollo frente a la costa del Atlántico medio tiene una probabilidad media de adquirir caracterÃsticas tropicales a finales de esta semana y convertirse en la próxima tormenta con nombre de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico. El próximo nombre en la lista es Josephine.
Developing coastal storm off the mid-Atlantic could turn tropical later this week
A developing non-tropical coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic has a medium chance of taking on tropical characteristics by later this week and becoming the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The next name on the list is Josephine.
Nuevos análisis posteriores a Isaias muestran que no todos los modelos de inteligencia artificial para huracanes son iguales
A estas alturas, para los lectores habituales de este boletÃn ya no es ninguna novedad que el modelo de inteligencia artificial DeepMind de Google es el rival a vencer cuando se trata de pronósticos de huracanes.
New post-Isaias analyses show not all AI hurricane models are created equal
By now, itâs old news to regular readers of this newsletter that Googleâs DeepMind AI model is the one to beat when it comes to hurricane forecasting. We were first to report on DeepMindâs mind-boggling performance as it happened in real time during its inaugural run last hurricane season and have written extensively about its performance and upgrades since, including most recently a full analysis of its blockbuster performance so far in 2026.
Vigilan las Carolinas de cara a la próxima semana
El silencio de los modelos de pronóstico tras el paso de IsaÃas podrÃa estar comenzando a romperse.
Keeping an eye on the Carolinas for next week
The post-Isaias radio silence of forecast models may be starting to crackle.
El Atlántico sigue tranquilo en plena temporada de huracanes
La temporada de huracanes del Atlántico parece encaminarse a buena parte de octubre sin sistemas con posibilidades reales de desarrollarse. Los modelos de pronóstico están prácticamente vacÃos para las próximas semanas. Eso podrÃa permitirnos llegar casi a finales de octubre sin ningún sistema importante.
Atlantic basin snoozing deep into October
The Atlantic hurricane season looks to head deep into October without any noteworthy development contenders. Forecast models are mostly blank for the next few weeks, which could get us through most of the remainder of October without any significant systems.
When do we usually see the last US hurricane landfall?
Atlantic basin hurricanes have happened in most months of the year. Though uncommon, weâve had January hurricanes before (see Hurricane Alex in 2016), December hurricanes (see Hurricane Epsilon in 2005), and nearly every month in between except for February and April (officially March recorded a hurricane back in 1908 north of the Caribbean Islands). But mainland U.S. hurricane strikes tend to have harder bookends that fall within the prescribed June to November season.
No se esperan amenazas tropicales esta semana tras el paso de Isaias
La temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico está comenzando a acercarse a su fin. Históricamente, alrededor del 90% de los huracanes que han tocado tierra lo han hecho antes del 12 de octubre, mientras que aproximadamente el 85% de la actividad de la temporada ya ha quedado atrás. En unas pocas semanas más, habremos superado el 99% de todos los huracanes que históricamente han tocado tierra, según el calendario.
No tropical threats this week in the wake of Isaias
The Atlantic hurricane season is beginning to get a little long in the tooth. Historically, about 90% of landfalls have happened by October 12<sup>th</sup>, with about 85% of seasonal activity behind us. Give us another few weeks and weâll be 99% through all historical hurricane landfalls by calendar day.
Isaias azota el oeste del Panhandle de Florida el viernes; fuertes lluvias y vientos se extienden por el sureste hoy
<i>Nota del autor: Esta es una edición especial del sábado del boletÃn Talking Tropics que cubre la llegada a tierra del huracán Isaias el viernes por la noche en el extremo occidental de Florida y sus impactos generalizados que continúan en el sureste de los Estados Unidos.</i> El huracán Isaias, de categorÃa 3, esperó hasta el último minuto para desintegrarse en una cortina de cizalladura del viento impulsada por la corriente en chorro el viernes por la noche, mientras su núcleo...
Isaias slams western Florida Panhandle Friday; heavy rain, winds spread across Southeast today
<i>Authorâs note: This is a special Saturday edition of the Talking Tropics newsletter covering Hurricane Isaiasâs late Friday landfall in the western Florida panhandle and its widespread impacts ongoing across the southeastern U.S.</i> Category 3 Hurricane Isaias waited until the last minute to crumble to a curtain of jet-stream-driven wind shear Friday evening as its core was quickly eviscerated from the southwest, turning it into a half-cane near the time of landfall.
Hurricane Isaias weakens to a Category 1 storm after Category 2 landfall near Destin
Hurricane Isaias weakened to a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph after making landfall on Friday night near Destin as a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph.
Huracán Isaias, el primero en dos años que se dispone a azotar el norte de la costa del Golfo
Los cazahuracanes de la Reserva de la Fuerza Aérea que volaban sobre Isaias la madrugada del viernes, a unas 200 millas al sur del oeste del Panhandle de Florida, encontraron un huracán que se estaba fortaleciendo, con presiones en descenso y vientos superiores a 120 mph, lo que elevó a Isaias a un huracán mayor de categorÃa 3 (vientos de al menos 111 mph), el primero de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico de 2026.
Hurricane Isaias poised to strike northern Gulf Coast as first hurricane in 2 years
Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters flying Isaias early Friday about 200 miles south of the western Florida panhandle found a strengthening hurricane, with falling pressures and winds topping 120 mph, lifting Isaias to a major Category 3 hurricane (winds of at least 111 mph), the first of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Isaias se convierte en el primer huracán de la temporada; emiten alertas desde la costa de Mississippi hasta el oeste del Panhandle de Florida
Isaias se fue fortaleciendo progresivamente sobre el sur del Golfo el miércoles y se convirtió en el primer huracán de la temporada de huracanes del Atlántico a última hora de la noche del miércoles.
Isaias becomes the season’s first hurricane; Hurricane Warnings issued from coastal Mississippi to the western Florida Panhandle
Isaias steadily strengthened over the southern Gulf on Wednesday and became the Atlantic hurricane seasonâs first hurricane by late Wednesday night.
Isaias to rapidly strengthen to a near-major hurricane, forecast to strike the northern gulf coast late Friday into Saturday
The area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche â formerly designated Invest 92L â wasted no time capitalizing on record warm waters and a conducive upper-level environment Tuesday, organizing into a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon and strengthening into Tropical Storm Isaias before sunrise Wednesday.
Crece amenaza tropical para la costa norte del Golfo
Una zona de baja presión en el suroeste del Golfo gana organización. El Centro Nacional de Huracanes la designó Invest 92L y prevé que se desarrolle y se fortalezca en los próximos dÃas, cuando acelere hacia el norte a finales de esta semana. Para el sábado podrÃa amenazar como tormenta tropical o huracán la costa centro-norte y noreste del Golfo, entre Luisiana y el Panhandle de Florida. El próximo nombre de la lista es Isaias.
Growing tropical threat to the northern Gulf Coast for late week into the weekend
An organizing area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf â designated Invest 92L by the National Hurricane Center â is expected to develop and strengthen over the coming days as it accelerates northward later this week, posing a growing threat to the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast â from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle â as a tropical storm or hurricane by Saturday. The next name on the list is Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs).
Aumentan las probabilidades de desarrollo en el Golfo esta semana
El área sobre el suroeste del Golfo que comenzamos a analizar en este boletÃn el martes pasado fue incorporada por el Centro Nacional de Huracanes a su perspectiva tropical el sábado por la noche, inicialmente con una baja probabilidad (20%) de desarrollo en siete dÃas.
Odds increase for Gulf development this week
The area over the southwestern Gulf that we first started discussing in this newsletter last Tuesday was added by the National Hurricane Center to its tropical outlook late Saturday, initially with low (20%) 7-day development odds. Forecast models continued to ramp up interest in the system on Sunday, and by early Monday the NHC had dialed up their development chances to 70% (high) of a tropical depression or named storm by later this week over the southern or central Gulf.
Golfo complicado la próxima semana, aunque los modelos aún son inciertos.
Como comentamos en detalle en el boletÃn del jueves, la baja presión persistirá a lo largo de la cola de un frente estancado en la parte baja del sur del Golfo y la BahÃa de Campeche la próxima semana. — Como comentamos en detalle en el boletÃn del jueves, la baja presión persistirá a lo largo de la cola de un frente estancado en la parte baja del sur del Golfo y la BahÃa de Campeche la próxima semana.
Messy Gulf next week, but models not yet sold on development
As we discussed in detail in Thursdayâs newsletter, low pressure will fester along the tail of a stalled front in the lower reaches of the southern Gulf and Bay of Campeche next week. Our forecast models have been lukewarm on the low pressure trying to organize into something tropical or subtropical by late next week into the holiday weekend (weekend of October 10<sup>th</sup>) but like virtually every would-be Atlantic system this season, it wonât have an easy road to development.
Keeping an eye to the southern Gulf for late next week
As the calendar turns to October, we turn our attention back to the waters closer to home â over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf â where water temperatures are still near their annual highs and fall fronts can linger, helping to spawn tropical mischief. Right on cue, weâll be watching a strong fall front swing into the Gulf early next week before stalling out from Florida down into the lower stretches of the southwestern Gulf for later next week.
Temporada ciclónica llega a octubre sin huracanes, algo nunca visto
La temporada de huracanes del Atlántico cerrará septiembre sin un solo huracán desde su inicio, algo que no habÃa ocurrido nunca en los registros confiables. También es la primera vez en más de 30 años, desde 1994, que no se registra ningún huracán durante el mes de septiembre. Aun asÃ, el mes logró reunir cuatro tormentas con nombre: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo y Hanna.
Mostly quiet start to October for the Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season will end September without a single hurricane since the start of the season, a first in the reliable records. Itâs also the first time in over 30 years (since 1994) that no hurricane was recorded during the month of September. The month did manage to scrounge up four named storms â Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna.
Un septiembre inédito rompe récords históricos al terminar sin un solo huracán en el Atlántico
Una marcada calma tropical marca un hito sin precedentes en los registros meteorológicos modernos de la región. El mes habitualmente más activo de la temporada de huracanes está por concluir sin que se haya formado un solo huracán en el Atlántico, un fenómeno sin precedentes en los registros meteorológicos modernos y confiables.
A September like no other for the Atlantic hurricane season
Itâs an eerie sight to look out across the tropical Atlantic on September 29<sup>th</sup> and see nothing in the way of consequential activity.
Pacífico oriental alcanza nuevo máximo de la temporada mientras actividad en el Atlántico se estanca en mínimos históricos
Ha sido un año excepcional para la temporada de huracanes del PacÃfico Oriental, culminado por un extraordinario mes de septiembre que contó con 3 huracanes simultáneos dos veces en un perÃodo de 3 semanas, la primera vez desde la exitosa temporada de huracanes de 2015, y el segundo huracán más fuerte registrado hasta la fecha, el huracán Polo de categorÃa 5, la semana pasada.
Eastern Pacific soars to new seasonal high while Atlantic activity stagnates at record lows
Itâs been a banner year for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season capped by a remarkable September that featured 3 simultaneous hurricanes twice in a 3-week period â the first time since the blockbuster 2015 hurricane season â and the second strongest hurricane on record with Category 5 Hurricane Polo last week.
Huracán Nolo provoca inundaciones catastróficas y potencialmente mortales en la Isla Grande de Hawái este fin de semana
Nolo se intensificó hasta convertirse en huracán el jueves a varios cientos de millas al sur de Hawái y se prevé que pase a unas 150 millas de la Isla Grande como huracán en intensificación el viernes, antes de girar bruscamente hacia la izquierda al sur del estado este fin de semana.
Hurricane Nolo brings catastrophic, life-threatening flooding to Hawaii’s Big Island this weekend
Nolo strengthened into a hurricane on Thursday several hundred miles south of Hawaii and is on track to pass to within about 150 miles of the Big Island as an intensifying hurricane on Friday before hanging a hard left south of the state this weekend.
Hawái bajo una inédita tercera vigilancia de huracán este año ante la llegada de Nolo.
Los residentes y visitantes de Hawái se preparan para otro impacto de huracán este fin de semana, ya que Nolo se fortalece hoy a lo largo de varios cientos de millas de la Isla Grande.
Hawaii under unprecedented 3rd hurricane watch this year ahead of Nolo
Residents and visitors to Hawaii are bracing for yet another hurricane impact this weekend as Nolo strengthens several hundred miles of the Big Island today. The tropical storm is expected to become the eastern Pacific’s ninth hurricane of the season on Thursday as it heads northward and hooks left near or to the south of the Big Island of Hawaiʻi as a major Category 3 hurricane (peak winds of at least 111 mph) this weekend. Photo Nolo track.
Polo puts on a show over the eastern Pacific
Hurricane Polo topped the scales as a showstopper Category 5 hurricane over the eastern Pacific about 200 miles south of Mexico Tuesday. The hurricane tore through records, strengthening from a disorganized tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane in a remarkable 42 hours, the fastest of any system on record in the western hemisphere.
Polo Undergoes Extreme Rapid Intensification Over the Eastern Pacific, Becomes Basin’s Record-Tying 3rd Category 5 Hurricane
Hurricane Polo – currently paralleling Mexico’s Pacific coastline about 200 miles southwest of Acapulco – was a fledgling 45-50 mph tropical storm early Monday but underwent an extreme bout of rapid intensification over the past 24 hours, strengthening to a monstrous 160 mph Category 5 hurricane by Tuesday morning.
Fay se forma rápidamente y casi pone fin a sequía récord de huracanes en el Atlántico, ahora se debilita rápidamente
La tormenta tropical Fay, la sexta tormenta con nombre de la históricamente inactiva temporada de huracanes del Atlántico de 2026, se formó rápidamente durante el fin de semana en el extremo noreste del Atlántico y, para la noche del domingo, se había convertido inesperadamente en el primer huracán de la temporada.
Fast-forming Fay nearly ends record Atlantic hurricane drought, now quickly fading
Tropical Storm Fay – the 6th named storm of the historically inactive 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – formed quickly over the weekend over the far northeastern Atlantic and made an unexpected run as the season’s first hurricane by Sunday evening. Ultimately Fay fell just short of the 74 mph hurricane threshold, topping out as a 70 mph tropical storm Sunday night before quickly crumbling to a curtain of wind shear early Monday.
Recuerdan el peor huracán de Miami un siglo después
Sign up for our Newsletters El Gran Huracán de Miami de 1926 azotó la vibrante ciudad hace 100 años hoy, poniendo fin al auge inmobiliario de Florida y transformando para siempre el sur de Florida Miami Beach submerged by storm surge at the height of the Great 1926 Miami Hurricane. Credit: State Library and Archives of Florida.
Remembering Miami’s worst hurricane a century later
One hundred years ago this morning, residents and newcomers to America’s Playground in Miami Beach awoke to what early Miami transplant, journalist, and famed conservationist Marjory Stoneman Douglas described as “a sea of raving white water.” Nearly 11 feet of whitewater was hoisted from the Atlantic Ocean and heaved in waves across the entirety of newly filled Miami Beach.
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