Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

Election Update: Early Polls Suggest A Post-Debate Bounce For Clinton

fivethirtyeight.com — Want these election updates emailed to you right when they're published? Sign up here More Politics . Every scientific poll we've encountered so far suggests that voters thought Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in Monday night's debate.

What Could The Polls Be Missing?

fivethirtyeight.com — In this week's politics chat, we weighed reasons the polls could be underestimating Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. The transcript below has been lightly edited. More Politics micah ( Micah Cohen, politics editor): The first presidential debate is behind us, and by most metrics, Hillary Clinton had the better night.

Video: FiveThirtyEight’s Politics Crew Analyzes The Debate

fivethirtyeight.com — A few minutes after the debate ended Monday night, our Elections podcast crew gathered around the diet soda to discuss what they had just seen and what it might mean. You can download the Elections podcast on iTunes, in the ESPN App or on your favorite podcast platform. More Politics

Kentucky | 2016 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Clinton Won The Debate, Which Means She’s Likely To Gain In The Polls

fivethirtyeight.com — Democrats woke up on Monday to a spate of bad polls for Hillary Clinton, which brought Donald Trump to perhaps his closest position yet in the Electoral College. They had reason to go to bed feeling a lot better.

Oct. 3: Romney’s Electoral Challenge, and More on Debate Instant Polls

fivethirtyeight.com — It may be a bit fruitless to spend too much time worrying about the Wednesday afternoon FiveThirtyEight forecast when Wednesday night's debate had the potential to change the election landscape. But for the sake of continuity, here goes.

Election Update: Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate

abc11.com — Whatever arguments we've had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday's presidential debate. As a rough guide, I'd expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a clearer one by next Sunday or so, when an array of higher-quality polls will begin to report their post-debate results as well.

Election Update: Clinton Edge Gets Even Narrower

fivethirtyeight.com — Well, folks, this is getting tight. Donald Trump is in his strongest-ever position in FiveThirtyEight's polls-plus forecast, which gives him a 46 percent chance of winning the election. Trump's chances are about the same, 45 percent, according our polls-only forecast, his best standing since it showed him with a 50 percent chance in the midst of his convention bounce.

Updates | 2016 Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

Election Update: Where The Race Stands Heading Into The First Debate

abc7news.com — Whatever arguments we've had about the polls this week will soon be swamped by the reaction to Monday's presidential debate. As a rough guide, I'd expect us to have some initial sense of how the debate has moved the numbers by Thursday or Friday based on quick-turnaround polls, and a clearer one by next Sunday or so, when an array of higher-quality polls will begin to report their post-debate results as well.
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Sep 29, 2016

2004 also great for examples of Democrats "unskewing" polls.  http://bit.ly/2dbBMzE 

Sep 29, 2016

The @MysteryPollster archive from 2004 still has some pretty darned great info on polling fundamentals.  http://bit.ly/2cCZUbS 

Sep 29, 2016

RT @smod2016: BIG: @538politics now forecasting #SMOD will sweep the electoral college, blanketing the map w/the charred remains… https://t.co/Usx5butdv2

Sep 28, 2016

@pourmecoffee: That poll's unscientific, but we will add the RussiaToday/BullionVault.com nat'l tracking poll, which has Trump up 52.

Sep 28, 2016

First three fully post-debate national polls have Clinton +5, +4, +3. So I'll daringly assert she might settle into a 3-5 point nat'l lead.

Sep 28, 2016

Clinton up a tick in our forecast but only 2 post-debate polls. Will take more time for model to account for bounce.  http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn 

Sep 28, 2016

@SeanTrende: A 7-day tracking poll is sort of like in-flight WiFi. Nominally useful, but so slow that the frustration outweighs the benefit.


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