Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.

Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters?

fivethirtyeight.com — Every new poll seems to provide support for one of two impressions of the race: one in which Hillary Clinton is pulling away toward a historic landslide, and another in which Clinton holds a lead but Donald Trump remains on the fringes of contention.

Are Democrats Headed For A Split Even If Clinton Wins?

fivethirtyeight.com — In this week's politics chat, we examine the cracks in the Democratic Party's coalition. The transcript below has been lightly edited. More Politics micah ( Micah Cohen, politics editor): The WikiLeaks dumps of hacked Hillary Clinton campaign emails have mostly been :zzz:. "Clinton Campaign Found To Be Doing Things Campaigns Do" does not a good headline make.

Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump

fivethirtyeight.com — Want these election updates emailed to you right when they're published? Sign up here More Politics . As I wrote last week, Hillary Clinton is probably going to become the next president. But there's an awful lot of room to debate what "probably" means.

Schwab Live: Answers

schwab.com — 0 DAYS : 00 HOURS : 00 MINUTES : 00 SECONDS Join a live stream of Schwab's Trading Services specialists as they share their perspectives on current events, emerging market trends, and timely trade ideas. They'll even take time to answer questions submitted directly by traders like you.

An inventory of big data books – the self-driving company

medium.com — I've been asked to recommend a good book on big data that's not Big Data, which I coauthored with Viktor Mayer-Schönberger (images below). It's a hard question for several reasons. First, though I'm usually brutally critical of my work, it's not a bad book.

Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP

fivethirtyeight.com — Instead of a poll, let's start today's Election Update with some actual votes. According to the esteemable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 26-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno).

Election Update: There Are 4 Ways This Election Can End - And 3 Involve Clinton Winning

fivethirtyeight.com — It's tempting to say that voters have made up their minds and that the presidential vote is set. Hillary Clinton has a 6.6-percentage-point lead in the popular vote and an 87 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, according to our polls-only forecast.

The Signal and the Noise: the art and science of prediction

lse.ac.uk — Browser does not support script. Browser does not support script. Browser does not support script. Browser does not support script. Speaker(s): Nate Silver Chair: Professor Craig Calhoun Recorded on 29 April 2013 at Old Theatre, Old Building In this age of information-overload, Silver argues it is more difficult than ever to distinguish a true "signal" from the noisy universe of data.

Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump at the Debate | RealClearPolitics

Election Update: ‘Likely Voters’ Aren’t Helping Trump Much

fivethirtyeight.com — Want these election updates emailed to you right when they're published? Sign up here More Politics . FiveThirtyEight's highest traffic often comes on the day just after major events, like debates or key presidential primaries. Everyone wants to know how those events are going to move the polls.
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Oct 25, 2016

Cubs WS chances fall from 62% --> 45% after Game 1 loss.  http://53eig.ht/29Kh4HX 

Oct 25, 2016

@TheStalwart: Not many but depends on if it was caused by some "shock" in the news (homeland security crisis on Nov. 3) or was more organic.

Oct 25, 2016

@TheStalwart: It could also be Michigan, where the polls historically kind of suck and there are a lot of undecided voters.

Oct 25, 2016

@TheStalwart: Yeah. I think people/models are overconfident that like PA or NH exactly will be 270. Could very easily be FL or even NC.

Oct 25, 2016

Also, I get worried about herding when polling forms this tight a range. Although FL a state where polls historically have been accurate.

Oct 25, 2016

Florida a bit underrated this cycle. Especially with early voting it's a great Plan B for Clinton in the event of late problems elsewhere.

Oct 25, 2016

There are states where it's about turnout, and otherd where it's about persuasion. Here's a clue to which is which:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-where-are-the-undecided-voters/ 

Oct 25, 2016

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Nearly all of Silicon Valley's political $'s are going to Hillary Clinton:  http://53eig.ht/2eLIpsI  https://t.co/FKOV65M40j

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