At about 11:15 this morning, an hour or so after Leeann Tweeden published an allegation that Democratic Sen. Al Franken of Minnesota had groped and kissed her without her consent in 2006, I assumed that Franken was headed toward resignation. I didn’t necessarily expect Franken to resign immediately or without putting up a fight. But barring some highly exculpatory evidence, I expected Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other prominent Democrats to be pushing Franken out the door.
“If I were in Alabama, I would run to the polling place to vote for the Democrat,” said Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake on Monday. He was referring to next month’s special U.S. Senate election in Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones is running against Republican Roy Moore, who has been accused of initiating unwanted sexual contact with two teenage girls. We don’t necessarily expect a lot of other Republicans to endorse Jones.
Do Democrats Need To Win In Alabama To Take The Senate In 2018? Welcome to FiveThirtyEightâ€™s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): Greetings, colleagues! For your consideration today: Do Democrats need to win the special election for Alabama’s Senate seat in order to have a chance to win control of the chamber in 2018? Implicit in that question, obviously, is: Can Democrats win the Senate in 2018?
@PhilBirnbaum I guess my overall view is that Elo does "surprisingly well" despite somewhat obvious flaws, i.e. as well as more complex methods like Sagarin/Massey.
I think allowing for intra-season variation in talent/form is a part of that—it's sort of both a bug and a feature of Elo.
@PhilBirnbaum In theory, you could vary K based on the point in the season. Also, the optimal K for predicting game n may be different than for game n+10.
But in general, when I've experimented with adding wrinkles to Elo, it doesn't help w/prediction too much & detracts from its simplicity.
@tangotiger@PhilBirnbaum In Elo math, that's basically the k-factor. And the k-factor varies a lot from sport to sport. The value we chose for the NBA optimizes predictive power for the team's next NBA *game* (not necessarily the next *segment*, which may be different).
Muck Rack makes it simple to find people, tweets, or articles that mention any name, keyword, company, hashtag etc. We've compiled this guide to help you make the most of your search.
Selecting a term
Start searching tweets, articles from media outlets, articles mentioned in tweets, journalists'
names, titles and bios with some suggested searches:
Companies or Topics (e.g. iPhone, Microsoft)
Phrases (e.g. "cloud computing") — use quotes to keep the terms together
Twitter handles (e.g. @username) — returns those who have mentioned or replied to
Names (e.g. "David Pogue")
Hashtags (e.g. #sxsw, #london2012)
Bio details (e.g. vegan, Olympics, father)
Muck Rack's Advanced Search allows for many boolean operators.
Find results that mention multiple specified terms, use AND or
+. For example, ensure each result contains both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg by
searching Musk AND Zuckerberg or Musk + Zuckerberg.
Use the operators OR or , to broaden your search when you'd like either of
multiple terms to appear in results. (This is the default behavior of our search when no operators
are used). For example, results will contain either cake or cookie by searching cake OR cookie or cake,cookie
Use NOT or - to subtract results from your search. For
example, searching Disney will yield results about the Walt Disney Company as well as Walt Disney
World Resort. To exclude mentions of Disney World, search for Disney -World or Disney
When using one of these operators with a phrase, enclose it in quotation marks. For example, you can
find results about smartphones excluding Apple's iPhone 4S by searching smartphone -"iPhone
Exact case matching or punctuation
If you're searching for a brand name or keyword that relies on specific punctuation marks or capitalization, you can
find results that match your exact query by adding matchcase: before the keyword you're searching for, like matchcase:E*TRADE .
Use parentheses to separate multiple
boolean phrases. For example, to find journalists talking about having fun in Disney World or
Disneyland, search for ("disney world" OR disneyland) AND fun.
An asterisk can be used to search for any variation of a root word truncated by the asterisk. For example, searching for admin* will return results for administrator, administration, administer, administered, etc.
A near operator is an AND operator where you can control the distance between the words. You can vary the distance the near operation uses by adding a forward slash and number (between 0-99) such as strawberries NEAR/10 "whipped cream", which means the strawberries must exist within 10 words of "whipped cream".