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Articles by Nate Silver
What is Gavin Newsom doing?
Newsom campaigning for the Biden-Harris ticket in Michigan in 2024. Getty Images. Following the successful passage of his redistricting referendum in California last November, California Gov. Gavin Newsom began the year as the frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination. But polls suggest that he’s slumping. According to Race to the White House, Newsom’s support among prospective Democratic voters in 2028 has fallen from 25 percent in January to 15 percent today.
Spectacular Scoring! Political Intrigue! Heroic Defending! The World Cup Has It All.
Spectacular Scoring! Political Intrigue! Heroic Defending! The World Cup Has It All. June 19, 2026, 5:02 a.m. ET CreditCredit...Harriet Lenneman Ms. Barbara is the editor of the literary website A Hortaliça and wrote from São Paulo, Brazil. Mr. Jacobs writes about soccer at Eleven Named People. Mr. Silver’s World Cup predictions (with Joseph George) can be found at Silver Bulletin. Mr. Guida and Mr. Schneider are editors in Times Opinion.
Central Air Live with Nate Silver
Dear listeners, As I noted last week, we don’t have a regular episode this week, due to the Memorial Day holiday. We’ll be back with two episodes next week — one with Reihan Salam, president of the Manhattan Institute, and one with content from our on-scene interviews at Welcomefest, including a conversation I’ll be having with Mark Cuban.
Disney erased FiveThirtyEight Original
Last Thursday night, I was working late, trying to put some of the finishing touches on our forthcoming World Cup model — and actually looking up an article I’d written for FiveThirtyEight in 2014 about my previous soccer model, SPI. Although the quality of the archive has gradually deteriorated since Disney shut down the site in 2025 (I left two years earlier in 2023), at least our text-based articles were mostly still there, or so I thought.
Nate Silver (@natesilver)
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The Fifth Column (A Podcast)
Your weekly rhetorical assault on the on the news cycle, the people who make it, and occasionally ourselves. Kmele Foster (Freethink), Michael Moynihan (Vice), and Matt Welch (Reason) talk and laugh and drink their way to at least quasi-sanity in a world gone mad, often with the aid of clean and articulate guests. Weekly Members Only subscription edition often comes with listener mail and professional-quality (if inappropriate) singing. Analysis. Commentary. Sedition.
The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver
2 hours ago Last year, I left California to start my first full-time job elsewhere. At the time, I thought my move was temporary. Now, though, I’m sure: Aside from a miraculous piece of divine intervention, I’m not moving back. Of course, I’m not the only one. Young professionals like me are fleeing the state …
Opinion | The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver Credit...Damon Winter/The New York Times Mr. Silver is the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” Mr. Guida is an editor in Times Opinion. Voting has started in the 2026 midterms — in Texas, ahead of a big primary on March 3.
The sad and self-inflicted decline of the Washington Post, in one chart
It’s a busy week here. I wrote over the weekend about public opinion on immigration, which has turned against Trump after Minneapolis. I also have some big-picture thoughts that I’m trying to pull together that might strike a more optimistic note than you’re probably seeing elsewhere, especially given how much Trump has had to backtrack. We updated ELWAY and QBERT and will have a Super Bowl preview soon.
Nate Silver (@natesilver)
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Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot? Original
🕒 The latest on the generic ballot Updated October 5, 2026 Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September still hasn’t stopped. As of today, they’re up to D +8.9 on the generic congressional ballot. That’s a high point for the party this cycle. They also recently broke 50 percent support for the first time in our average. We post a different version of our generic ballot average on our midterm election forecast page.
One (or maybe five) years of Trump
I was still semi-addled with an MLK Weekend case of the flu this afternoon when I recorded with Nate Silver about what has and hasn’t surprised us so far in the Trump administration. So it’s possible that my points do not make any sense. But I think I was reasonably cogent, and I definitely agree with where Nate left us at the end which is that Trump seems to be doing more potentially irreparable harm than I’d have felt comfortable predicting.
Opinion | 2 Polling Experts on How the ICE Shooting Is More Trouble for Trump
SKIP ADVERTISEMENT You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. The year has barely started and already American politics has been thrown into a frenzy. What are voters thinking?
Psychologia ryzyka: co naprawdę wyróżnia ludzi grających na najwyższych stawkach? [fragment książki]
Skuteczni ryzykanci nie liczą na szczęście W artykule przedstawiamy fragment książki "Na krawędzi. Największym ryzykiem jest niepodejmowanie ryzyka", której autorem jest Nate Silver. 1. Skuteczni ryzykanci pod presją zachowują zimną krew. Nie próbują być bohaterami, ale potrafią działać, gdy stawka jest wysoka. Zachowanie spokoju, gdy inni tracą panowanie nad sobą, to rzadka cecha — a jednocześnie kluczowa dla zwycięskiego hazardzisty.
Is Trump a lame duck?
The school of thought that President Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn’t move his numbers with his base isn’t quite right. For instance, Trump’s approval ratings suffered in April after a series of tariff announcements triggered voter anxiety about the economy. More recently, they fell amid the shutdown after Trump and Republicans threatened SNAP benefits.
Shutdown Fold 'Em, with Nate Silver
Dear listeners, We’re back and we have a guest this week: Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin. Nate joins us for the full episode. We start with shutdown recriminations: I think Democrats had unreasonable expectations for what they could get out of a shutdown and, as I wrote for The New York Times, the much-maligned Chuck Schumer got them the best outcome that was available to them.
‘Nothing Is Forever in Politics’: 3 Writers on the Collapse of the Trump Coalition
These millionaires have a suggestion for the FAA: Cancel all private jet flights during the shutdown Private jets make up one in six flights handled by the FAA, and taxpayers already foot the bill for their ‘jet setting,’ says Patriotic Millionaires. As the longest government shutdown in U.S. history continues, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered flight reductions at 40 major …
Opinion | ‘Nothing Is Forever in Politics’: 3 Writers on the Collapse of the Trump Coalition
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. ‘Nothing Is Forever in Politics’: 3 Writers on the Collapse of the Trump Coalition Credit...Photo illustration by The New York Times Mr. Bruni and Ms. Anderson are contributing Opinion writers.
Opinion | 3 Writers Try to Make Sense of the Government Shutdown Original
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Guest Essay Oct. 10, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET Credit...Illustration by Shoshana Schultz/The New York Times By Frank BruniKristen Soltis Anderson and Nate Silver Mr. Bruni and Ms. Anderson are contributing Opinion writers.
Kto dziś rozdaje karty: pokerzyści, miliarderzy od kryptowalut czy AI? [fragment książki]
Kto dziś rozdaje karty: pokerzyści, miliarderzy od kryptowalut czy AI? W artykule przedstawiamy fragment książki Na krawędzi. Największym ryzykiem jest niepodejmowanie ryzyka, której autorem jest Nate Silver. Jestem jedną z tych osób, które mają słabą pamięć do imion — nie obstawiaj, że za pierwszym razem przypomnę sobie imię twojego szczeniaka — ale mam za to dobrą pamięć do miejsc. Kiedy utknę nad jakimś problemem, muszę wstać i pójść na spacer.
Is America ready for a gay president?
In her new campaign memoir, Kamala Harris wrote that Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary and mayor of South Bend, Indiana, “would have been an ideal [running mate] — if I were a straight white man”. But, Harris wrote, “We were already asking a lot of America: to accept a woman, a Black woman, a Black woman married to a Jewish man. Part of me wanted to say, Screw it, let’s just do it. But knowing what was at stake, it was too big of a risk.” Oh, boy.
Opinion | Democrats Are Picking the Wrong Shutdown Fight
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Guest Essay Sept. 22, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET Credit...Illustration by Sam Whitney/The New York Times Listen to this article · 6:37 min Learn more By Nate Silver Mr. Silver writes the newsletter Silver Bulletin. In March, I urged Democrats to shut down the government over possibly illegal budget cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency.
Na krawędzi. Największym ryzykiem jest niepodejmowanie ryzyka
Czy jesteś gotowy rozpocząć grę o nowy porządek świata i podjąć ryzyko? Na krawędzi to przewodnik po świecie, w którym postęp ludzkości zawsze opierał się na ryzyku. Od stolików pokerowych po kasyna Las Vegas, od zakładów giełdowych po eksperymenty Doliny Krzemowej. Autor poprowadzi cię przez miejsca, w których ryzyko potrafi wynieść cię na szczyt albo pchnąć na samo dno.
Blueskyism Isn’t Dead, But It’s Close
Even on a logarithmic scale — on a linear scale, the graph is boring, because everything but Twitter would pretty much just be a flat line — the gulf between X and the other platforms is clear. And since the election, Bluesky has lost ground. More precise data based on the number of unique “likers”, “posters” and “followers” at Bluesky tracks a similar curve, with an initial peak around the election and a secondary peak after Trump’s inauguration but persistent erosion since then.
On the Edge - Nate Silver - 📕 книга - store.bg
Поръчай през телефона си сега. Лесно е! Цена: 35.00 лв. / 17.90 € Доставка: Доставка за СофияИзбери друго населено място Цена за доставка До автомат на  BOX NOW : 2.99 лв. / 1.53 € До офис на Еконт: 5.49 лв. / 2.81 € До адрес: 4.99 лв. / 2.55 € Опция преглед Да, при всяка доставка до адрес или офис. Дати за доставка 21‑11‑2025 г. или 24‑11‑2025 г.
Is Epstein the new Russiagate?
A review of this newsletter’s search function will reveal that I’ve never before written the words “Jeffrey Epstein” in a Silver Bulletin post. In fact, I’ve referenced Epstein’s surname just once in passing, quoting from an Elon Musk tweet that claimed President Trump “is in the Epstein files” — a conclusion that’s now reportedly been shared with Trump. Part of that is about the sort of newsletter I’m trying to run here.
Opinion | ‘Morally Offensive and Fiscally Reckless’: 3 Writers on Trump’s Big Gamble Original
Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation with Nate Silver, the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, and Lis Smith, a Democratic communications strategist and author of the memoir “Any Given Tuesday: A Political Love Story,” to discuss the aftermath of the passage of President Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill.
Why young men don't like Democrats
Free Republic Browse · Search News/Activism Topics · Post Article Skip to comments. SBSQ #21: Why young men don't like Democrats Nate Silver ^ | 06 02 2025 | Nate Silver Posted on by yesthatjallen Risk tolerance, the River, and why Democrats struggle with young men Carrie Levande asks: "SBSQ submission: as you noted in Risky Business, the Democrats’ groupthink around protecting Biden is emblematic of their Village tendencies.
'This Is Less Like Governing and More Like a Really Nauseating Amusement Park Ride': 3 Writers on Trump 2.0 Original
Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster, and Nate Silver, the author of " On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything" and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, to explore what polls say about the opening months of President Trump's action-filled second term.
How popular is Donald Trump?
🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating Updated August 14, 2026 The Silver Bulletin 2026 midterm election forecast launched today! Check out the new landing page to see our predictions for every Senate, House and gubernatorial race this cycle. The forecast does incorporate Donald Trump’s approval rating. With a current net approval of -20.4, the president isn’t doing Republicans any favors.
My Book is Getting Published
As the title to this post says, I’m publishing a book. This hasn’t been a secret in the last week, but I wanted to announce it formally because part of the reason that Rowman & Littlefield agreed to publish it is because of this wonderful community that has cropped up around this newsletter. The book will be called Uncharted Territory. It’s an off-beat, data-driven history of popular music from 1958 to 2025. It should be out this fall.
DeepSeek: Frequently Asked Questions
It's strange - and rare - for me to write long-form pieces about the same company two weeks in a row. But here's the thing - I am astounded at how big of a splash DeepSeek is making. It's on the front page of The New York Times, CNN, CNBC, Fox: you name it. It hit #1 in the US App Store over the weekend and is still there. It's reportedly causing panic within Meta, and has drawn a response from OpenAI's Sam Altman.
It's time to come to grips with AI
We live in interesting times. On Monday morning, tech stocks plunged on investor shock and awe over DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company that has built — I’m leaving out a lot of details — an open-source large language model (LLM) that performs competitively with name brands like ChatGPT at a fraction of the computing cost. Meanwhile, two stories got buried in the avalanche of activity by President Trump last week. Trump rescinded a Biden executive order on AI safety.
113 predictions for Trump's second term
The next edition of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions is coming soon! Paid subscribers can submit questions in last month’s thread. Borrowing a feature that’s been popular at other Substacks, I’m here to give you some predictions for what Trump’s second term will bring. A lot of them, in fact: 113. Just how likely are tail risk outcomes like the U.S. undergoing a severe constitutional crisis or Trump remaining in office for a third term? What about more ordinary things like a recession?
Are we entering a Conservative Golden Age?
In his inaugural address on Monday, President Trump asserted that we have just entered the “golden age of America,” one in which the United States will “flourish and be respected again all over the world.” And make no mistake: Trump envisions this as a Conservative Golden Age. In a series of executive orders announced by the White House, Trump has already swung policy far to the right on immigration, the environment, transgender rights and other issues.
Why Biden failed
Donald Trump, the 45th President, will also become the 47th President at noon on Monday, and we have you covered with a trio of long politics newsletters that we think you’ll really like. This is a final reflection on the outgoing 46th president, Joe Biden. Then, we’ll have two forward-looking pieces to run during the week. One (paywalled) is a set of probabilistic predictions on what will happen during Trump’s second term. The other (free) is a story placing the moment in a historical context.
Who I’d pick for the Baseball Hall of Fame
I’m gradually making my way back home after spending essentially all of the past month on the road. That should lead to an increase in newsletter volume: travel tends to produce a lot of half-finished ideas and drafts, and it’s been a long while since I’ve felt like I had an open stretch of runway without looming deadlines or commitments. Today, though, let’s close the loop on my 2-part series on the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The rise and fall of "fact-checking"
On Tuesday, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a series of changes to Facebook and Instagram that will considerably dial down the level of content moderation on those platforms. As someone who tries to be non-hypocritically pro-free speech, my inclination is to welcome the changes. But Zuck’s motivations are questionable: there’s no doubt that Meta and other media companies are under explicit and intense political pressure from the incoming Trump administration.
The Hall of Fame is about more than WAR Original
In this interim post-election period — I say “interim” because once I get back from Asia next week, it’ll finally be time to focus more on developing our long-term plans — I’ve felt it’s been valuable to take mostly deeper dives. This is another of those: the first of a two-part series on the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Nobody goes to New York City anymore. It’s too crowded. Original
On Thursday, December 12, there were 4,527,607 million rides recorded in the New York City subway system, setting a new daily high since the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, there were 1.4 million rides on buses, 269,000 on the LIRR (which connects Long Island to Manhattan) and 236,000 thousand on Metro-North (connecting the northern suburbs with the city). But just focus on that subway number for a second.
Part II: The failed rebrand of Kamala Harris
This is part 2 of our 3-part autopsy on Kamala Harris’s campaign. It consists of me going through literally every line of an interview that four senior Harris staffers conducted with Pod Save America’s Dan Pfeiffer last week. I won’t waste your time by repeating their names and roles; see Part I for that.
Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump
Silver Bulletin is part of a group of Substacks proudly participating in a fundraiser for GiveDirectly, an organization that puts money directly into the hands of the world’s poorest people. I’m not much of a joiner or a “group project” guy, but I’m convinced that this is one of the most effective means of charitable giving. You can read much more about GiveDirectly in this post from friend-of-the-newsletter Matt Yglesias at Slow Boring.
The expert class is failing, and so is Biden’s presidency
As Sean Trende pointed out on X, it hasn’t exactly been the best century for the expert class. Begin with the response to September 11 — the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, which were supported . Then the financial crisis and the bank bailouts. Then Brexit and the election of Trump.
SBSQ #15: Democrats have a "fool me twice" problem
Welcome to a special edition of Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions. We’re using it to tie up loose ends on various reader questions about the election and the model. We’ll run another SBSQ (#16) that avoids election-related questions in a couple of weeks; you can leave questions for that edition in the comments below. Ideally, then, we’ll get back to the regular schedule in which SBSQs run toward the end of the month.
Don't Blame Polling for Our Infuriating Politics Original
The polls just can't win in the court of public opinion - the very thing they're designed to study. They are either maddening in finding a race too close to call (in the final month before the presidential election, nearly 80 percent of swing-state polls showed a lead of no more than two and a half percentage points) or they break from the pack, only to be wrong.
Kamala Harris was a replacement-level candidate
I have a lot of sympathy for Kamala Harris’s position, maybe more than I have for any losing candidate in some time. Obviously, this was a position of her choosing. Harris is ambitious: She sought the Democratic nomination in 2020 and then the vice presidency and quickly moved to consolidate support within the party once Joe Biden was finally shoved aside. But Biden did her no favors.
I got six texts last night about Substack's fundraise.
Good morning everyone. Last night I hosted a dinner with my friend Paul Needham in the beautiful private dining room at Le Veau d'Or. The dinner was mostly off the record so I can’t tell you much, but I can say the food was fantastic, the gingham tablecloths are beautiful, the space is perfectly lit, and I went downstairs at one point and saw people I knew at three different tables in the restaurant.
It's 2004 all over again
I wish I could give you a crystal-clear sense of what Democrats felt like in 2004 after George W. Bush was elected to a second term. But the truth is, my memories of that time are hazy.
The model exactly predicted the most likely election map
Before we get into the meat of today’s newsletter, just a quick update on our plans. Silver Bulletin, we hope, will have a long future. But I’m thinking about things in a few different stages: Short term: We’re treating next week (and the remainder of this week) as “election wind-down mode.” You’ll almost certainly get a few more newsletters covering what happened and why.
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