Nathaniel Rakich
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Managing editor @VotebeatUS. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst @FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org
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Articles by Nathaniel Rakich
Midterm nightmare revealed that election experts can’t shake
This article was originally published by Votebeat, a nonprofit news organization covering local election administration and voting access. Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest.
Experts say the midterms could face challenges, but are less concerned than in the spring
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric about voter fraud, attempts to reshape U.S. election law, and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election have left plenty of people worried that his administration will try to interfere with the 2026 midterm elections.
A field guide to 2026 election forecasts
There are lots of election predictions out there. Which ones should you trust? Who’s going to win the midterms? It might depend on who you ask. For years, FiveThirtyEight1 was THE place on the internet to check who was leading in the polls and who was favored to win elections. Now that it’s kaput, there are more websites than ever offering data-driven predictions of elections. While that’s good in some ways (competition keeps everyone on their toes), it’s unfortunate in others.
The Next Swing State, Debated Over Drinks
The full episode is available to paid subscribers. Once you become a paid subscriber, you can connect your account to your preferred podcast player here. What’s the next swing state: Texas, Kansas or Minnesota? And how much should we trust the polls pointing toward a big blue wave this November? Mary Radcliffe and Nathaniel Rakich joined me for our first GD POLITICS paid-subscriber happy hour to debate the changing electoral map and answer your questions about the midterms.
Supreme Court ends Missouri map uncertainty as election deadlines close in
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest. For two days this week, Missouri election officials faced an extraordinary problem: The state supreme court had ordered them to prepare November’s congressional election using one map, while a federal judge ordered them to use another.
‘The Whole Enchilada’: How the Supreme Court could remake the 2026 election ⚖️
On Sunday — while us normies were enjoying the long Labor Day weekend — the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to un-block its efforts to revamp the mail-in balloting process ahead of the midterms. This latest appeal is the final act — we believe — of President Trump’s long-runing efforts to restrict mail-in balloting, a quest that began following his 2020 loss.
Watchdog releases review of Michigan registered voters Original
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... This article was originally published by Votebeat, a nonprofit news organization covering local election administration and voting access. By Nathaniel Rakich, Votebeat With the high-stakes 2026 midterm election fast approaching, Michigan has conducted an independent review of its voter roll.
Watchdog releases review of Michigan registered voters
With the high-stakes 2026 midterm election fast approaching, Michigan has conducted an independent review of its voter roll. A report released Friday by the Office of the Auditor General found that the Michigan Department of State generally does a good job making sure only eligible people are registered to vote. But it also identified a small number of possible noncitizens, dead voters, and voters with inaccurate or ineligible birthdates.
Watchdog releases review of Michigan registered voters
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for Votebeat Michigan’s free newsletter here. With the high-stakes 2026 midterm election fast approaching, Michigan has conducted an independent review of its voter roll. A report released Friday by the Office of the Auditor General found that the Michigan Department of State generally does a good job making sure only eligible people are registered to vote.
Trump teases ‘very big announcement’ about elections, but it’s unclear what it will be
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest. Election watchers are buzzing about President Donald Trump’s speech to the nation on Thursday night — but so far, no one has any concrete idea what he’s going to say. The White House has scheduled a rare primetime address for Thursday at 9 p.m. Eastern.
Baseball fans complain about All-Star Game voting, but MLB gets a lot right
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest. “Vote early and often” is (hopefully) a joke when applied to American elections. But for Major League Baseball, it’s an earnest exhortation. Every summer, the biggest stars in baseball face off in a much-hyped, albeit just-for-fun, All-Star Game.
A Detailed Analysis of Missouri’s New Congressional Map
September 29, 2025 at 1:41PM EST The unprecedented redistricting arms race of 2025 continues apace. After Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional map with the goal of flipping from three to five House seats, California Democrats voted to place their own new congressional map before voters this November that would do the same thing. Now, Missouri Republicans are getting in on the act: This past weekend, Republican Gov.
A Detailed Analysis of North Carolina’s New Congressional Map
October 24, 2025 at 1:35PM EST If there’s one state that’s accustomed to mid-decade redistricting, it’s North Carolina. The Tar Heel State drew itself new congressional districts for the 2016, 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections — and so it’s not too surprising that it’s jumping on the bandwagon of the 2026 cycle’s gerrymandering wars as well.
A Detailed Analysis of Texas’ New Congressional Map
August 27, 2025 at 2:57PM EST Fearful of losing their majority in the House of Representatives, Republicans have embarked on a multi-state offensive to redraw congressional maps in their favor. This month, they won the first, and arguably biggest, battle of that campaign: The state legislature passed (and Gov. Greg Abbott will soon sign into law) a new Texas congressional map that will probably deliver at least three, and possibly as many as five, additional House seats to Republicans.
A Detailed Analysis of Ohio’s New Congressional Map
October 31, 2025 at 8:11PM EST In a major departure from normal redistricting practices, four states have now approved new congressional maps for the 2026 midterms. (A fifth, California, looks like it will enact a new map via ballot measure next week, and several other states are making moves to redraw as well.) But the latest to do so is not like the others.
A Detailed Analysis of Utah’s New Congressional Map
November 11, 2025 at 4:59PM EST Six states have now adopted new congressional lines for the 2026 midterms — a modern record for a cycle that doesn’t immediately follow a Census. On Monday night, Utah became the most recent member of that club after a judge approved a new map that will shake up the state’s congressional delegation.
Tennessee 7 Special: Upset in the Making?
September 30, 2025 at 7:04PM EST Throughout 2017 and into early 2018, election watchers kept seeing the same movie over and over: Special elections in heavily Republican areas were way closer than they had any right to be, as Donald Trump’s presidency galvanized Democratic voters and put several normally safe Republican districts into play.
A Detailed Analysis of California’s (Maybe) New Congressional Map
August 21, 2025 at 5:49PM EST If you thought the midterm elections wouldn’t start until 2026, think again. Control of multiple House seats will now effectively be decided this fall. The California Legislature is soon expected to advance a new congressional map for the Golden State that is heavily biased in Democrats’ favor.
What if Both Parties Gerrymandered to the Max?
Opinion & Analysis 1 day ago My State Was a ‘Democracy Desert.’ This Is How We Turned It Around. The New York Times - Ben Wikler • 1d President Trump and his allies are assaulting the shaky foundations of American democracy. In acts that reminded us of what he did after his loss in 2020, he called the recent California primary election “rigged,” and last week, his F.B.I. raided an Ohio voter registration group.
What if Both Parties Gerrymandered to the Max?
A cartogram of all 435 U.S. House districts, each drawn as a square and colored by party: Democratic (blue), Republican (red), or competitive (yellow). As the story scrolls, the squares recolor to show how aggressive redistricting could reshape the House, while a scoreboard tracks each party's seat count against the 218 needed for control.
Franklin Towne Charter student poll workers receive Governor’s Civic Engagement Awards
Kayla Marshall, a student from Franklin Towne Charter High School, stands for a portrait at the state capitol after winning one of the Governor’s Civic Engagement Awards. Jeannetta Dormil, a student from Franklin Towne Charter High School stands for a portrait at the state capitol after winning one of the Governor’s Civic Engagement Awards.
What Americans think about election policy and how the 2026 elections will go
Posted 6/1/26 Votebeat reports Americans are concerned about election fraud and voter disenfranchisement ahead of the 2026 midterms, supporting voter ID but opposing federal oversight. This item is available in full to subscribers. E-mail Password Print and web subscribers If you're a print and web subscriber, but do not yet have an online account, click here to create one. Non-subscribers Click here to see your options for becoming a subscriber.
What Americans think about election policy and how the 2026 elections will go
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A dispute over a congressional map could snowball into a legal and logistical elections crisis
This news analysis was originally distributed in Votebeat’s free weekly newsletter. Sign up to get future editions, including the latest reporting from Votebeat bureaus and curated news from other publications, delivered to your inbox every Saturday. It was another week of on-and-off redistricting drama: In case you missed it, it’s on in Florida and off in Alabama and South Carolina.
A dispute over a congressional map could snowball into a legal and logistical elections crisis
This news analysis was originally distributed in Votebeat’s free weekly newsletter. Sign up to get future editions, including the latest reporting from Votebeat bureaus and curated news from other publications, delivered to your inbox every Saturday. It was another week of on-and-off redistricting drama: In case you missed it, it’s on in Florida and off in Alabama and South Carolina.
What Americans think about election policy and how the 2026 elections will go
Earlier this year, Votebeatasked a group of election experts what worried them about the administration of the 2026 midterms. This article shares the results for a closer look at how the American people are feeling. Several polls in recent months have asked about people's confidence in the election, the likelihood of voter fraud, and how - if at all - election laws should be changed.
A dispute over Missouri’s congressional map could snowball into a legal and logistical elections crisis
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. This news analysis was originally distributed in Votebeat’s free weekly newsletter. Sign up to get future editions, including the latest reporting from Votebeat bureaus and curated news from other publications, delivered to your inbox every Saturday. It was another week of on-and-off redistricting drama: In case you missed it, it’s on in Florida and off in Alabama and South Carolina.
A dispute over Missouri’s congressional map could snowball into a legal and logistical elections crisis
Opinion & Analysis Now How Long Can Marco Rubio Keep This Up? The New York Times - Manuel Roig-Franzia • 1m Nine days before Christmas in 1987, federal drug agents descended on a modest one-acre property in West Miami. Their target was a drug dealer named Orlando Cicilia, whom they arrested and charged with selling and distributing millions of dollars of Colombian cocaine.
A deeply divided America is united on one thing
Earlier this year, we asked a group of election experts about what worries they had about the administration of the 2026 midterms. Now, let’s check in on how the American people are feeling. This article was originally published by Votebeat, a nonprofit news organization covering local election administration and voting access. Several polls in recent months have asked about people’s confidence in the election, the likelihood of voter fraud, and how — if at all — election laws should be changed.
What Americans think about election policy and how the 2026 elections will go
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. This news analysis was originally distributed in Votebeat’s free weekly newsletter. Sign up to get future editions, including the latest reporting from Votebeat bureaus and curated news from other publications, delivered to your inbox every Saturday. Earlier this year, we asked a group of election experts about what worries they had about the administration of the 2026 midterms.
Here’s where redistricting stands after Florida’s new congressional map and the Supreme Court’s Callais decision
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Here’s where redistricting stands after Florida’s new congressional map and the Supreme Court’s Callais decision
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. This news analysis was originally distributed in Votebeat’s free weekly newsletter. Sign up to get future editions, including the latest reporting from Votebeat bureaus and curated news from other publications, delivered to your inbox every Saturday. If you love redistricting, boy, was it the week for you.
What 37 election experts say could disrupt the midterms
A voter arrives at a polling location at Washington-Liberty High School in Arlington, Virginia, on April 21. Votebeat asked 37 experts in the field of election administration - academics, lawyers, former election officials, etc. - to answer 26 questions about the likelihood of various scenarios coming to pass in the 2026 midterms. There are always unanswered questions heading into any election.
Supreme Court weakens Voting Rights Act, making it harder to challenge political maps for being racially discriminatory
Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization reporting on voting access and election administration across the U.S. Sign up for our free weekly newsletter to get the latest. The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday issued a landmark decision significantly weakening the Voting Rights Act, the Civil Rights Era law designed to limit racial discrimination in voting. While the ruling’s long-term impacts could be profound, it probably won’t change much for the 2026 midterms.
What 37 election experts say could disrupt the 2026 elections
Posted 4/21/26 Votebeat reports that 37 election experts anticipate the 2026 elections may face disruptions, including potential government interference and challenges to results. This item is available in full to subscribers. E-mail Password Print and web subscribers If you're a print and web subscriber, but do not yet have an online account, click here to create one. Non-subscribers Click here to see your options for becoming a subscriber.
What 37 election experts say could disrupt the 2026 elections
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What 37 election experts say could disrupt the 2026 elections
Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-WY) speaks at a press conference on March 21, 2026 in Washington, DC. - Tasos Katopodis // Getty Images What 37 election experts say could disrupt the 2026 elections There are always unanswered questions heading into any election.
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