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Articles by Payton Knopf
There is already an answer to securing Sudan’s future
The writer was US deputy special envoy for the Horn of Africa from 2021 to 2022.
Stop the Next Ethiopia-Eritrea War Before It Begins
When the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition signed a cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, the deal ended one of the most lethal wars of the 21st century. The conflict involved land armies of tens of thousands of troops, mechanized units, and air power more evocative of the Battle of the Somme in 1916 (albeit with more advanced weaponry) than the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993. Credible estimates suggest that the death toll surpassed 600,000, which is likely an underestimate.
Ethiopia-Eritrea-Tigray War: UAE, Saudis, AU and the West Must Stop Conflict Before It Starts
Military Africa When the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition signed a cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, the deal ended one of the most lethal wars of the 21st century. The conflict involved land armies of tens of thousands of troops, mechanized units, and air power more evocative of the Battle of the Somme in 1916 (albeit with more advanced weaponry) than the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993.
Sudan’s last hope lies in external actors ending the war
The writer was deputy special envoy for the Horn of Africa in the Biden administration and is a former adviser to two US special envoys...
The Year(s) of Magical Thinking on Sudan
After 16 months of war, the scale of Sudan’s devastation, the human toll, and the geopolitical fallout are staggering. Sudan’s sovereignty has been dismantled; its state has collapsed. Genocidal violence abounds in multiple areas of the country. Islamist militia proliferate.
Why is Sudan so prone to civil war?
For the past month, two rival generals have been feuding for control of the capital Khartoum, raising fears of another major conflagration. "If you take Sudan, and you look at other large countries throughout the world, not just in Africa, they are almost always very difficult to govern," said Susan D. Page, a former U.S. diplomat who spent years working in the country.
Ethiopia’s Worsening Crisis Threatens Regional, Mideast Security
Payton Knopf & Jeffrey Feltman Al-Monitor January 13, 2021 (AP Photo/Nariman El-Mofty) With the Horn of Africa increasingly becoming an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, the fallout from Ethiopia's current crisis will have a significant impact on states of the region. Read Full Article » Show comments Hide Comments Related Articles
Ethiopia’s worsening crisis threatens regional, Mideast security
Jan 12, 2021 The Gulf Arabs recognize a strategic reality that has eluded the stove-piped US foreign and security policy bureaucracy for too long: The Horn of Africa is an integral part of the Middle East’s security landscape, and increasingly so. No country demonstrates this more clearly than Ethiopia.
Crisis in Ethiopia and its regional repercussions
Twitter Join the conversation on Twitter using #AfricaSecurity Nearly 30 years after the end of its 17-year civil war, Ethiopia is steps away from slipping into another disastrous conflict that could wipe out the gains of the past three decades.
Sudan: Normalizing Sudan-Israel Relations Now is a Dangerous Game
Washington, DC — As Sudan is mentioned among the next states to normalize relations with Israel, concerns about what that would do to the democratic transition arise. With the UAE and Bahrain having joined Egypt and Jordan in declaring peace with Israel, those asking “who’s next?” often look enthusiastically westward, toward Khartoum. Adding new chapters to the Abraham Accords is in the U.S. interest, but so is a successful transition in Sudan. And the sequence of these steps is critical.
Normalizing Sudan-Israel relations now is a dangerous game
With the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain having joined Egypt and Jordan in declaring peace with Israel, those asking “who’s next?” often look enthusiastically westward, toward Khartoum. Adding new chapters to the Abraham Accords is in the U.S. interest, but so is a successful transition in Sudan. And the sequence of these steps is critical.
Political, security, and public health dimensions in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa continues to face multiple challenges from persistent terrorism and militancy threats to significant global warming repercussions. A country of significant U.S. and international state-building and counterterrorism investments, Somalia continues to struggle with increasing al-Shabaab militancy, a security situation in which Ethiopia, Kenya, and other members of the African Union Mission in Somalia play important counterinsurgency roles.
Sudan, One Year After Bashir
Dictator Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan for nearly three decades, was overthrown in April 2019. After months of protests, negotiations led to a joint civilian-military transitional government to govern the country for a period of 39 months. However, Sudan’s political transition remains tenuous, and even before the coronavirus pandemic, the risks of failure were many.
Sudan faces an inflection point - and needs US leadership
When a military junta backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates deposed Sudanese president Omar al Bashir in April, the United States was seemingly on the sidelines.
Golden hour in the Horn of Africa
Political changes of a magnitude not seen since the immediate post-Cold War period are underway in the Horn of Africa, a region at the strategic crossroads of the Middle East, North Africa, and the Sahel. Yet the risks and opportunities for the United States posed by these tectonic shifts have been largely neglected. As the unfolding situation in Sudan suggests, however, the region is at an inflection point that will define its course for a generation.
Nikki Haley's visit to South Sudan can be the beginning of its civil war's end
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, arrived in South Sudan this week amidst a political, security, and humanitarian catastrophe of epic proportions: A country engulfed in civil war that is hemorrhaging more refugees than any African state since the Rwandan genocide and where two-thirds of the population is starving. To her great credit, Haley delivered an unequivocal message to the brutal regime led by President Salva Kiir: The U.S. has lost its trust in South Sudan’s government.
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