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Articles by Peter A. Petri
Peak China: Why do China's growth projections differ so much?
The expected summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco in November will feature an unusual backdrop: a Chinese economy in trouble and a U.S. economy that’s surprisingly resilient. But are China’s problems merely a slump, or signs of lasting decline? A wave of publications has already emerged on “Peak China” (here, here, and here) predicting that China will never overtake U.S. GDP, and may even stop growing altogether.
The UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt and the CPTPP’s prospects
China’s accession would generate the greatest benefits among the five scenarios given its deep trade linkages with the CPTPP region. They would be the largest not only for China but also for the world, the U.K., and current CPTPP members. Non-members would lose, including especially the EU and the United States. However, together the EU and United States would generate more gains than China while also imposing significant costs on China.
Discussion on Trade Promotion Authority and the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Discussion on Trade Promotion Authority and the Trans-Pacific Partnership PIIE experts discuss impending Trade Promotion Authority legislation and the status of the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. Steven R. Weisman led the call and was joined by Adam S. Posen, Peter A. Petri, Jeffrey J. Schott, and Caroline Freund.
The state of Asian trade and trade agreements in 2022
Peter Petri, a professor at Brandeis International Business School and a nonresident senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings, joins David Dollar to discuss recent developments in Asian trade agreements and to look at regional trade issues in 2022.
The state of Asian trade and trade agreements in 2022
The state of Asian trade and trade agreements in 2022 Skip to main content Peter Petri, professor at Brandeis International Business School and non-resident principal investigator at the John L. Thornton China Center in Brookings, joins David Dollar to discuss recent developments in Asian trade agreements and to examine regional trade issues in 2022.
Why South Korea should join the CPTPP
With surprising applications from the United Kingdom, China, and Taiwan, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has moved to the center stage of East Asian geopolitics. But why is South Korea — long expected to be the first new member of the CPTPP — still missing from this list? The case for South Korean membership was already strong in 2013 when Seoul first considered joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the predecessor of the CPTPP.
China’s CPTPP bid puts Biden on the spot
China's application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) was not a surprise to those following the signals out of Beijing. For two years, President Xi Jinping has delivered speeches indicating his intentions to join the trade pact that President Donald Trump walked away from in the beginning of his administration in 2017. But don't expect trade negotiations to progress anytime soon.
BW Men’s Soccer Ready to Take the Pitch for 2021 Spring Season
Posted: Mar 12, 2021 By: Athletic Communications Student Intern Jason Hughes '21 BEREA, Ohio - Led by veteran head coach Reid Ayers, the Baldwin Wallace University men's soccer team is ready to take the pitch for its 2021 Ohio Athletic Conference spring season. During its last season of play in 2019, BW finished with an overall record of 11-9, including a 4-5 record in Ohio Athletic Conference play. Ayers is returning 15 letterwinners, which includes five seniors, eight juniors and 12 sophomores.
RCEP: A New Trade Agreement That Will Shape Global Economics and Politics
Geopolitics December 2, 2020 Peter A. Petri Carl J. Shapiro Professor of International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School Michael Plummer Director of SAIS Europe at John Hopkins Representatives of signatory countries are pictured on screen during the signing ceremony for the RCEP trade pact at the ASEAN summit that is being held online in Hanoi.
Rebuild the Trans-Pacific Partnership back better
Faced with so many tough decisions on reviving the US economy, why would President-elect Joseph Biden want to invest scarce political capital in a new initiative to rebuild a trade agreement between the United States and Asia-Pacific nations that was never popular in the first place? The reason is that developments in the region have changed dramatically since the United States signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2016, which President Donald Trump later abandoned upon taking office.
What you should know about RCEP, Asia’s new trade agreement
This week, 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is arguably the largest free trade agreement in history. To explain the origins of the agreement and how it will affect economic integration across Asia, David Dollar is joined by Peter Petri, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and professor of International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School.
What to know about RCEP, Asia’s new trade agreement
This week, 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is arguably the largest free trade agreement in history. To explain the origins of the agreement and how it will affect economic integration across Asia, David Dollar is joined by Peter Petri, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and professor of International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School.
Vietnam faces a double-barreled challenge on currency policy
Vietnam has benefited from the US-China trade war, stepping in with exports to the United States as sales of Chinese goods have declined because of the Trump administration’s tariffs. But now the administration is invoking two separate US trade laws against Vietnam, charging it with currency manipulation and threatening to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from Vietnam. Whether Vietnam is actually manipulating its currency value to gain unfair trade advantages is debatable.
Commentary: The RCEP will change the economics and politics of the region
WALTHAM, Massachusetts: On Nov 15, 15 countries — members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five regional partners — signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), arguably the largest free trade agreement in history. RCEP and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which concluded in 2018 and is also dominated by East Asian members, are the only major multilateral free trade agreements signed in the Trump era.
RCEP: A new trade agreement that will shape global economics and politics
On November 15, 2020, 15 countries — members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five regional partners — signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), arguably the largest free trade agreement in history. RCEP and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which concluded in 2018 and is also dominated by East Asian members, are the only major multilateral free trade agreements signed in the Trump era.
What leaders overseas will want to ask of the Biden administration
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The U.S. election was watched closely around the world, with foreign leaders acutely aware that in some ways, the result of the presidential campaign could have major impacts on their future relations with the United States. As Joe Biden prepares to enter the White House in January, what questions or concerns is he likely to hear from his counterparts in Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America, as well as officials from international institutions?
By Madiha Afzal, Ranj Alaaldin, Pavel K. Baev, Carlo Bastasin, Richard Bush Verified, Sam Denney, Robert Einhorn, Federica Saini Fasanotti, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Jeffrey Feltman, Sadie Frank, Courtney Freer, Kemal Kirisci, Giovanna De Maio, Ryan McElveen, Michael O'Hanlon, Peter A. Petri, Bruce Riedel, Frank Rose, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Angela Stent, Torrey Taussig, David G Victor, Robert Williams, Daniel Wright
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Brookings Institution
The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates
Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center) January 2016 The authors estimate the economic effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) using a comprehensive, quantitative trade model, updating results reported in Petri, Plummer, and Zhai (2012) with recent data and information from the agreement.
Commentary: China has an opportunity to resurrect global economic cooperation
WALTHAM, Massachusetts: The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on China, including sending additional troops and two aircraft carriers to East Asia. But it is also retreating from the East Asian economy. In late June, 15 East Asian countries, representing nearly 30 per cent of world output and population, met by videoconference to commit to signing the Regional Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) in November 2020.
China could help stop the freefall in global economic cooperation
The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on China, including sending additional troops and two aircraft carriers to East Asia. But it is also retreating from the East Asian economy. In late June, 15 East Asian countries, representing nearly 30% of world output and population, met by videoconference to commit to signing the Regional Comprehensive Partnership (RCEP) in November 2020.
New East Asian trade blocs create tough choices for China
The US-China trade war has negatively affected global growth and trade prospects, redirecting supply chains and leading to inefficiencies. However, this column suggests that emerging mega-regional trade agreements, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, have the potential to compensate for the trade war by reducing regional costs.
China and the Trans-Pacific Partnership: In or out?
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was designed in 2016 to be almost China-proof, with stringent obligations requiring transparency and trade liberalization. As former US Trade Representative Michael Froman put it, Chinese participation would be welcomed only when China could meet TPP’s terms, which it was far from doing. The United States was not keeping China out; China was just not ready to come in. President Donald Trump then pulled the United States out of the TPP in January 2017.
East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs
Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center) June 2020 Photo Credit: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido The deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships.
The US retreat from East Asia is costly
Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center) When President Donald Trump said in his inaugural address that trade “protection would lead to great prosperity and strength” and withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, many East Asians were unfazed. Trump was a businessman. He might bargain for better trade deals but would not abandon America’s lucrative partnerships with the world’s most dynamic region.
The US-China tech rivalry shapes the economic relationship
China’s technological rise has led to anxiety in the United States over the possibility that China will dominate technologies of the future – but is there any merit to those concerns? Peter Petri, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and professor of International Finance at the Brandeis International Business School, joins David Dollar to provide an overview of technology competition between China and the United States.
Mega‐Regional Agreements and Their Impact on Australia
Policy Forum: Economic Relationships between Australia and the EU Michael G. Plummer Petri: Carl J. Shapiro Professor of International Finance, Brandeis International Business School, Waltham, MA, United States; Plummer: Director of SAIS Europe and Eni Professor, International Economics at the Johns Hopkins University, Bologna 4016, Italy.
Why the CPTPP Could Be the Answer to the US-China Trade War
Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center) Alexander Graham Bell once said that when one door closes, another opens. So it is now: 2018 saw the beginning of a trade war between the United States and China, but also gave birth to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), an 11-member, cutting-edge trade agreement fashioned for the 21st century that came into force on December 30.
China Should Join the New Trans-Pacific Partnership
Peter A. Petri (PIIE) and Michael G. Plummer (Johns Hopkins University and East-West Center) January 2019 Photo Credit: REUTERS/Rodrigo Garrido A year after President Donald Trump’s ill-advised pullout from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement in early 2017, the remaining 11 Asian and Pacific countries agreed on a deal in spite of the absence of the United States.
The case for RCEP as Asia’s next trade agreement
Six years in the making, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is slated to become an ASEAN-centric, comprehensive free trade area. Its 16 negotiating parties are racing to reach a “substantial conclusion” by the ASEAN summit of mid-November 2018. But even if this deadline is not met, RCEP is poised to make large contributions to Asian and global economic cooperation.
Why it’s time to end the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war
Fresh from reworking U.S. trade agreements with North American partners, the European Union, and South Korea, the Trump administration is focusing on its biggest trade irritant, China. In confronting China, President Trump enjoys support from a policy community worried about China’s military assertiveness and willingness to flout global norms in fields ranging from international investments to intellectual property.
Asia Leads the World's Response to Protectionism
As US President Donald Trump's risky world trade war escalates, a global response has become urgent. The best proposals so far are coming from Asian economies in the form of three significant trade policy projects. These reaffirm international trade rules and are creating new coalitions to fight for a rules-based trading system. The Asian approach is especially noteworthy because it takes the high road: It answers conflict with cooperation.
US Must Get Back into the Game in the Asia Pacific
President Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his first day in office and called it a "ridiculous" trade deal that deserved to die. But when Trump travels to Asia in early November, visits five countries and meets 20 regional leaders at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, he will find the pact alive and well. The remaining members are working to conclude the agreement on their own.
US must get back into the game in the Asia Pacific
President Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his first day in office and called it a “ridiculous” trade deal that deserved to die. But when Trump travels to Asia in early November, visits five countries and meets 20 regional leaders at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit, he will find the pact alive and well. The remaining members are working to conclude the agreement on their own.
The International Trade Commission Report on the TPP: Solid but Too Cautious?
The International Trade Commission Report on the TPP: Solid but Too Cautious? The massive new International Trade Commission (ITC) report on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a deep and high-quality study. The report describes the key economic gains to be achieved by the TPP, while acknowledging certain inevitable costs.
Economics of TPP: Winners and losers
The Trans-Pacific Partnership faces serious a political challenge in the US, with some viewing it as primarily benefitting the wealthy. This column argues that it will slightly favour middle- and low-income US households, while also generating substantial benefits for poorer developing countries. As with any trade agreement, the gains and losses will be asymmetrically distributed, but the gains should permit ample support for individuals adversely affected.
What Economic Models Tell Us about the TPP
As Congress prepares to take up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the debate is reviving old misunderstandings about how trade agreements affect the US and other economies.
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