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Articles by Peter Santilli
Warsh's old forecasts show how he formed his views on inflation
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's reluctance to signal where interest rates are headed has left the world unsure just how he thinks about the economy or inflation. Fortunately, there is a trove of evidence on exactly how he thinks, if you know where to look. As a Federal Reserve governor from 2007 through 2011, Warsh submitted projections every quarter for growth, unemployment and inflation, alongside his colleagues on the committee that sets interest rates.
Warsh’s Old Forecasts Show How He Formed His Views on Inflation
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to signal where interest rates are headed has left the world unsure just how he thinks about the economy or inflation. Fortunately, there is a trove of evidence on exactly how he thinks, if you know where to look. As a Federal Reserve governor from 2007 through 2011, Warsh submitted projections every quarter for growth, unemployment and inflation, alongside his colleagues on the committee that sets interest rates.
Why Big Tech’s AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems Original
Each quarter, big tech companies disclose their massive capital expenditures on artificial-intelligence infrastructure, from data centers to chips. But those figures don’t come close to expressing the full extent of future spending to which Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and many others have committed. That is because a huge swath of their coming financial obligations aren’t reflected on their balance sheets. Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Why big tech's AI spending is $3 trillion higher than it seems
Each quarter, big tech companies disclose their massive capital expenditures on artificial-intelligence infrastructure, from data centers to chips. But those figures don't come close to expressing the full extent of future spending to which Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and many others have committed. That is because a huge swath of their coming financial obligations aren't reflected on their balance sheets.
Why Big Tech's AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems — WSJ
By Peter Rudegeair and Peter Santilli Each quarter, big tech companies disclose their massive capital expenditures on artificial-intelligence infrastructure, from data centers to chips. But those figures don't come close to expressing the full extent of future spending to which Google parent Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Oracle and many others have committed. That is because a huge swath of their coming financial obligations aren't reflected on their balance sheets.
Why Big Tech’s AI Spending Is $3 Trillion Higher Than It Seems
1 hour ago The Pixel 11 is tempting, but these alternatives might still be better. Follow us on Google DiscoverAdd us as preferred source Google’s new lineup of flagship phones is officially here, and the base Pixel 11 is the most affordable of the bunch. It’s more expensive than last year’s model, starting at …
How the Big Premium Credit Cards Stack Up Against Each Other
July 27, 2026 10:19 am ET The high-end credit card market is more crowded than ever. With new entries from Citigroup and Robinhood Markets, and updated cards from American Express and JPMorgan Chase, companies have upped the ante on perks—and raised the price of admission. Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8 Continue reading your article with a WSJ subscription Subscribe Now Already a subscriber? Sign In
How the big premium credit cards stack up against each other
The high-end credit card market is more crowded than ever. With new entries from Citigroup and Robinhood Markets, and updated cards from American Express and JPMorgan Chase, companies have upped the ante on perks—and raised the price of admission. Here's a look at how some of the premium plastics stack up against each other: This explanatory article may be periodically updated.
Stubborn inflation, better growth: Economists weigh in
Anthony DeBarros, Peter Santilli The road ahead for the U.S. economy looks like a two-lane highway: stubbornly elevated inflation in one lane, strengthened growth and employment in the other. That is the consensus from 72 forecasters surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal. The panel sees the Iran War's effects on the economy contributing to a 3.4% rise in the consumer-price index in the 12 months through December even as economic growth remains just above 2% this year.
Stubborn Inflation, Better Growth: Economists Weigh In
Inflation forecasts for year-end 2026 Each pair of dots is an economist’s prediction in the latest survey and in April. Note: Chart shows forecasts for year-over-year change in the core personal-consumption expenditures price index as of the fourth quarter of 2026. Limited to respondents who provided core PCE forecasts in both April and July. Source: Wall Street Journal survey of economists
Silicon Valley Is Obsessed With ‘Trust Stacking,’ and the IRS Doesn’t Like It
June 29, 2026 12:00 pm ET A hot tax break beloved by company founders and angel investors is expanding so rapidly that it is drawing the ire of the Trump administration. At issue is what is known as trust stacking, which multiplies the benefits of a tax break for investors in small companies by two, three, four or even more times. The Qualified Small Business Stock tax break, or QSBS, allows founders to exclude up to $15 million in capital gains from their taxable income.
暗号資産取引所がイラン不正資金の「温床」になった経緯
暗号資産（仮想通貨）取引を追跡している調査員らは今年、イラン中央銀行が管理する二つのデジタルウォレットに結びついた、一連の不審な取引を発見した。 調査員らが資金の流れをさかのぼったところ、そのウォレットの資金が、北朝鮮のハッカーが暗号資産交換業者（取引所）バイビットから盗んだ15億ドル（約2430億円）と関連していることが判明した。この資金はイランのウォレットに到達した後、複雑な取引の迷路をたどった。その行き先の一つが暗号資産取引所だった。同取引所は、イランが米国の広範な経済制裁を回避するために暗号資産を利用する上で重要な役割を果たすようになった。 Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
How a Crypto Exchange Became a Major Hub for Illicit Iranian Cash
Earlier this year, crypto sleuths found an alarming series of transactions tied to two digital wallets controlled by the Central Bank of Iran. Tracing backward, investigators discovered the wallet’s funds were linked to $1.5 billion that North Korean hackers stole from the crypto exchange Bybit. After reaching the Iranian wallets, the money flowed through a complex maze of transactions.
How a crypto exchange became a major hub for illicit Iranian cash
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How a Crypto Exchange Became a Major Hub for Illicit Iranian Cash
Iranian entities have moved more than $3.84 billion in transactions through the crypto exchange CoinEx, according to an analysis of public blockchain data
米大企業CEOの最高報酬額、10人近くが2億ドルを突破
「ムーンショット」型報酬で最高経営責任者の報酬が過去最高に WSJ年次CEO報酬ランキング 1億ドル以上の報酬パッケージを得た経営幹部の数 70人 60 50 40 30 S&P500以外の企業 CEO以外の幹部 20 CEO S&P500構成企業 10 CEO以外の幹部 CEO 0 2015 ’20 ’25 出所：マイログIQ 1億ドル以上の報酬パッケージを得た経営幹部の数 70人 60 50 40 30 S&P500以外の企業 CEO以外の幹部 20 CEO 10 CEO以外の幹部 CEO 0 2015 ’20 ’25 出所：マイログIQ 1億ドル以上の報酬パッケージを得た経営幹部の数 70人 60 50 40 30 S&P500以外の企業 CEO以外の幹部 20 CEO S&P500構成企業 10 CEO以外の幹部 CEO 0 2015 ’20 ’25 出所：マイログIQ 1億ドル以上の報酬パッケージを得た経営幹部の数 70人 S&P500以外の企業 60 CEO以外の幹部 CEO 50 S&P500構成企業 40 CEO以外の幹部 CEO 30 20 10 0 2015...
Top-Paid CEOs Smash the $200 Million Payday
The $100-million-plus CEO is back with a bang, just a year after nine-figure pay packages seemed to be fading. More U.S. CEOs last year crossed the once-rare pay threshold than in any year since 2021—and nearly a dozen topped $200 million.
The Investment Accounts You Should Prioritize When You Have a Baby
By Joe Pinsker and Peter Santilli May 25, 2026 A step-by-step guide for where to put your money for your child’s future iStock image Parents who want to start investing for their young children have a growing array of options, including 529s, custodial accounts and, soon, Trump accounts. The rules and features of each are a lot for sleep-starved parents to untangle, but financial advisers have a general framework to help parents determine which accounts they should give priority to.
The Investment Accounts You Should Prioritize When You Have a Baby
Parents who want to start investing for their young children have a growing array of options, including 529s, custodial accounts and, soon, Trump accounts. The rules and features of each are a lot for sleep-starved parents to untangle, but financial advisers have a general framework to help parents determine which accounts they should give priority to. Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
See how the global government debt binge is rippling through markets
Peter Santilli, Sam Goldfarb Recent strains in the global bond market are demonstrating a key problem confronting G-7 leaders at their meeting in Paris this week: how to manage a growing pile of government debt, accelerated by war and the pandemic. Tumbling bond prices have pushed yields on government debt higher, lifting borrowing costs for governments, businesses and consumers alike.
See How the Global Government Debt Binge Is Rippling Through Markets
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The Economy Kevin Warsh Is Inheriting Is Not the One He Wanted
What markets are predicting for Fed rates Federal-funds rate projection for December 2026 3.9% ONE RATE INCREASE EXPECTED NO CHANGE 3.6 Expectation changed from two cuts to none ONE RATE CUT 3.3 Warsh nominated TWO RATE CUTS Iran war begins 3.0 Feb. March April May Note: Data show implied rate projection based on trading in December fed-funds futures.
Microsoft Cares About Your Privacy The economy Kevin Warsh is inheriting is not the one he wanted
Matt Grossman, Peter Santilli Kevin Warsh won the Fed chair nomination with a double-barreled policy agenda for the central bank: lower interest rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet. As he takes the reins, economic conditions will make it tough for him to achieve either of those goals. A troubling rise in inflation over the past two months has left Fed policymakers in no mood to deliver the rate cuts that President Trump has demanded.
Stock gains without all the taxes? How the hottest trade on Wall Street works
Miriam Gottfried, Peter Santilli With the stock market near record highs, it isn't enough to be winning anymore. Wealthy investors are now obsessed with losing, too. The hottest investment on Wall Street promises a magical-sounding mix of both: Index-beating performance that also comes with losses to offset capital-gains taxes.
Stock Gains Without All the Taxes? How the Hottest Trade on Wall Street Works
With the stock market near record highs, it isn’t enough to be winning anymore. Wealthy investors are now obsessed with losing, too. The hottest investment on Wall Street promises a magical-sounding mix of both: Index-beating performance that also comes with losses to offset capital-gains taxes. Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Stock gains without all the taxes? How the hottest trade on Wall Street works
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How the U.S. Became the World’s Greatest Energy Exporter
Value of U.S. exports, monthly $15 billion Crude oil 10 5 Propane 0 2010 ’15 ’20 ’25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of U.S. exports, monthly $15 billion Crude oil 10 5 Propane 0 2010 ’15 ’20 ’25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of U.S. exports, monthly $15 billion Crude oil 10 5 Propane 0 2010 ’15 ’20 ’25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of U.S. exports, monthly $15 billion Crude oil 10 5 Propane 0 2010 ’15 ’20 ’25 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of U.S. exports, monthly $15 billion Crude...
How the US became the world's greatest energy exporter Microsoft Cares About Your Privacy
Max Rust, Peter Santilli, Ryan Dezember The shale-drilling boom that began two decades ago not only flooded U.S. markets with oil and gas, it transformed the country into the world's largest energy exporter. From crude oil and liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to other products such as propane and wood pellets , the flow of fuel from U.S. ports has put a big dent in the national trade deficit and helped to stabilize overseas markets during war and other periods of scarcity.
tovima.com - Breaking News, Analysis and Opinion from To Vima’s International Edition
The shale boom and wars in Ukraine and Iran have transformed the U.S. into a global energy powerhouse Μake us preferred on Google The shale-drilling boom that began two decades ago not only flooded U.S. markets with oil and gas, it transformed the country into the world’s largest energy exporter.
How the US became the world’s greatest energy exporter
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tovima.com - Breaking News, Analysis and Opinion from To Vima’s International Edition
A city program offers new incentives for buildings with less than 100 units—and developers have gotten creative to squeeze in bigger projects Ninety-nine is suddenly the magic number for New York City apartment developers. A city government program enacted in 2024 offers a tax exemption to developers of most apartment buildings that have fewer than 100 units and include some affordable housing. Anyone building bigger than that has to abide by stricter requirements to get the same tax break.
战争的代价：经济学家如何预测经济形势
伊朗战事令经济学家们下调了对今年剩余时间的展望。《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)最新的季度调查显示，经济学家预计通胀将上升，短期增长将放缓，新增就业将趋于疲弱。 以下图表详细列出了经济学家们对关键指标的预测，并展示了这些经济学家对2025年的平均预期与实际结果的对比情况。这项最新调查于4月3日至9日进行，反映了68位经济学家的平均预测。并非所有受访者都回答了所有问题。 Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
How Economists Fared in Their 2025 Projections
In January 2025, as President Trump was about to start his second term, a group of economists regularly surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast an uptick in inflation and modest growth for the year, with the Fed keeping interest rates higher than previously thought. Here’s how their predictions turned out: The 73 economists largely nailed growth and unemployment. Elsewhere, their consensus was close but slightly off—core inflation came in hotter than expected, while interest rates were lower.
The Cost of War: How Economists Predict the Economy Will Fare
Each pair of dots is an economist’s prediction in the latest survey and in January . The war in Iran has economists downshifting their outlook for the rest of the year, with the consensus in The Wall Street Journal’s latest quarterly survey pointing to higher inflation, slower near-term growth and weaker job creation. The following charts break down economists’ forecasts for key indicators and show how the panel’s 2025 consensus compares with actual outcomes.
Why Developers in NYC Are Suddenly Obsessed With the Number 99
Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Ninety-nine is suddenly the magic number for New York City apartment developers. A city government program enacted in 2024 offers a tax exemption to developers of most apartment buildings that have fewer than 100 units and include some affordable housing.
Why developers in NYC are suddenly obsessed with the number 99
Rebecca Picciotto, Peter Santilli Ninety-nine is suddenly the magic number for New York City apartment developers. A city government program enacted in 2024 offers a tax exemption to developers of most apartment buildings that have fewer than 100 units and include some affordable housing. Anyone building bigger than that has to abide by stricter requirements to get the same tax break. They have to pay construction workers at least $40 an hour, or more than double the standard minimum wage.
With a New Tax Break, NYC Developers Suddenly All Want Buildings With 99 Units
Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Proposed new residential buildings in NYC with 50-99 units Ninety-nine is suddenly the magic number for New York City apartment developers. A city government program enacted in 2024 offers a tax exemption to developers of most apartment buildings that have fewer than 100 units and include some affordable housing.
株式をもっと保有せよ イエール大教授の投資モデル
あなたは株式に投資しすぎているだろうか、それとも十分ではないだろうか。その問いに答える新たな手法がある。 イエール大学のジェームズ・チョイ教授（金融学）は最近、年齢や所得、貯蓄、リスク許容度などに基づいて資産配分を推奨する投資モデルを考案した。ここで紹介するモデルは、同氏が昨年に共同執筆した論文をベースに、ウォール・ストリート・ジャーナル（WSJ）向けに調整されたものだ。 Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
A Yale Professor’s Investment Formula Says You Need More Stocks. See How It Works.
Are you invested too much in stocks or not enough? There is a new way to answer that question. Yale University finance professor James Choi recently developed a formula that recommends an asset allocation based in part on your age, income, savings and risk tolerance. The formula is drawn from a paper he co-authored last year and was adapted for The Wall Street Journal. Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
A Yale professor's investment formula says you need more stocks. See how it works.
Joe Pinsker, Peter Santilli Are you invested too much in stocks or not enough? There is a new way to answer that question. Yale University finance professor James Choi recently developed a formula that recommends an asset allocation based in part on your age, income, savings and risk tolerance. The formula is drawn from a paper he co-authored last year and was adapted for The Wall Street Journal.
Weak Jobs, Solid Growth and a Fraught Fed Future: The Outlook, Visualized
Economists have two views on the nation’s economy—stronger-than-expected growth and weaker employment prospects. The split boils down to the forces driving the economy: a boom in investment in artificial intelligence alongside tariffs, deportations and political uncertainty. Spending on data centers and AI infrastructure has boosted growth and spurred the stock market, which buoys consumers’ attitudes toward spending.
What We Know About America’s Billionaires: 1,135 and Counting
By Inti Pacheco and Theo Francis | Graphics by Drew An-Pham and Peter Santilli Sept. 3, 2025 Billionaires are everywhere. In the U.S., they own more than 3,000 homes and other properties. Their primary businesses are in every state, except Wyoming and Alaska. Together, they’re worth about $5.7 trillion.
What we know about America’s billionaires: 1,135 and counting
Summary An exclusive, up-close look at the richest people in the U.S. from celebrities like Taylor Swift and Elon Musk to the founder of a roofing supplier in Wisconsin. This is a Mint Premium article gifted to you. Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. “Billionaire" evokes tech founders such as Jeff Bezos or Bill Gates, but there is a large and growing group of people worth at least $1 billion in small towns and big cities that rarely make the headlines.
Chinese Imports Fell During Trump’s First Term. It’s Happening Again.
President Trump recently delayed for 90 days raising tariffs on China to give the two sides more time to negotiate a trade deal. Where the sides ultimately end up is an open question: The president hasn’t said how much more he will impose on China beyond the 30% currently in place if a deal isn’t reached. But this much is clear: The U.S.’s reliance on Chinese goods has fallen off since Trump first put tariffs on China in 2018.
U.S. Recession Fears Ease: Economists Cut Odds to 33%, but Trump Trade Policy Worries Persist Original
Each pair of dots is an economist’s prediction in the latest survey and in April. ← SURVEY RESPONDENTS → Likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months 0255075100% Note: Limited to respondents who provided recession forecasts in both April and July. Source: Wall Street Journal survey of economists Economists this month dialed back their earlier pessimism that U.S. trade policies would lead to slower growth and higher inflation this year—at least for the near term.
Wednesday’s CPI: Peanut Butter Prices Up, Airfare Down
Wednesday's CPI report for May brought a host of new information about where prices fell and where they rose. The bad news for parents of young children: Peanut butter, bananas and ice cream got more expensive. The good news for travelers: Airfare got cheaper.
Warren Buffett’s Unparalleled Investing Record-in Charts
Value of $100 invested in 1965 1965196520242024S&P 500Berkshire Hathaway$100$100$39,054$5.5 million Note: 2024 values are as of year-end. Berkshire’s return is based on class A shares. S&P 500 return includes dividends. Source: Berkshire Hathaway
The Starkly Different Look of Trump’s First 100 Days
April 24, 2025 9:00 pm ET The first nearly 100 days of President Trump’s term have played out far differently from those of any other recent administration—including his own eight years ago. Here’s a glimpse by the numbers as he nears completion of his 100th day on April 30. Executive orders Trump signed 26 executive orders at the start of his second term—the first batch of 137 implemented as of Thursday.
What Economists See Ahead-and How They Fared Last Year
Each pair of dots is an economist’s prediction in the latest survey and in January. ← SURVEY RESPONDENTS → Likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months 0255075100% Note: Limited to respondents who provided recession forecasts in both January and April. Source: Wall Street Journal survey of economists In the past three months, economists have changed their outlook for the U.S. to slower growth, higher inflation and greater risk of recession.
The Companies and Markets Hit Hardest by Trump’s Tariffs
S&P 500, change since April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ Trump posts: ‘THIS IS A GREAT S&P 500, change since April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ Trump posts: ‘THIS IS A GREAT S&P 500, change since April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ Trump posts: ‘THIS IS A GREAT S&P 500, change since April 2 ‘Liberation Day’
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