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Articles by Peter Winskill
Quasi-global, land-only, high-resolution and spatially averaged climate variables from downscaled CMIP6 models for climate impact research
Abstract Global climate models (GCMs) are essential tools for understanding the climate system and projecting its evolution under different scenarios. However, differences in model construction introduce uncertainties, and GCMs have coarse resolution and inherent biases, limiting their effectiveness for informing local or regional adaptation and mitigation planning.
Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic - Nature Communications
Abstract COVID-19 has underscored the need for more timely access to vaccines during future pandemics. This has motivated development of broad-spectrum vaccines providing protection against entire viral families, which could be stockpiled and deployed rapidly following detection.
The benefits of investments to combat HIV, tuberculosis and malaria for primary health care, 2000-23: an economic modeling analysis
Funding for this study was provided by the Global Fund. PW acknowledges support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-043624). TBH and PW acknowledge funding from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/X020258/1), funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC). This UK funded award is carried out in the frame of the Global Health EDCTP3 Joint Undertaking.
The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments - Nature Communications
Abstract Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression.
The potential of gene drive releases in malaria vector species to reduce the malaria burden in different African environments
Abstract Gene drive technologies are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause widespread and sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, gene drive impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of a gene drive that causes vector population suppression.
Estimating the burden of severe malarial anaemia and access to hospital care in East Africa - Nature Communications
Abstract Severe malarial anaemia can be fatal if not promptly treated. Hospital studies may under-represent the true burden because cases often occur in settings with poor access to healthcare. We estimate the relationship of community prevalence of malaria infection and severe malarial anaemia with the incidence of severe malarial anaemia cases in hospital, using survey data from 21 countries and hospital data from Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach - Nature Communications
Data We used empirical estimates of vaccine effectiveness against what we term mild disease (positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests including symptomatic cases and asymptomatic infections detected through screening in schools and workplaces), hospitalisations (defined as admission recorded in the Emergency Care Dataset within 14 days of a positive test) and death (within 28 days of a positive test) with the Delta and Omicron BA.1/BA.2 variants from England.
Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa - Nature Communications
Abstract Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0–5-year old children after hospitalised SMA.
Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study
Parameterisation and set-up of the malaria transmission model Transmission intensity Baseline PfPR2–10s are 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 35%, 45%, 55%, and 65%. We assume that PfPR2–10 reflects current rates of insecticide-treated beds, indoor residual spraying, and access to treatment, which remain static following vaccine introduction in all scenarios. Seasonality The highly seasonal archetype is based on seasonality patterns in Fatik, Senegal.
Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study
ArticlesVolume 22, Issue 9p1293-1302Open access MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK Publication History: Published June 23, 2022 DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6 External LinkAlso available on ScienceDirect External Link Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Estimating the COVID-19 infection fatality ratio accounting for seroreversion using statistical modelling - Communications Medicine
Abstract The infection fatality ratio (IFR) is a key statistic for estimating the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and has been continuously debated throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The age-specific IFR can be quantified using antibody surveys to estimate total infections, but requires consideration of delay-distributions from time from infection to seroconversion, time to death, and time to seroreversion (i.e. antibody waning) alongside serologic test sensitivity and specificity.
Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study
Summary Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide. Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions although it is unclear which controls should be used to combat the disease.
Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study
Loading metrics Open Access Peer-reviewed Research Article Alexandra B. Hogan , Peter Winskill, Azra C. Ghani Alexandra B. Hogan, Peter Winskill, Azra C. Ghani Published: November 30, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377 Figures Abstract Background The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months.
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
Global prospects for COVID-19 control Lower-income countries have recognized the potential impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from observing ongoing epidemics. Many have intervened quickly and early with measures to slow viral transmission, which may partly explain the low rates observed so far in these countries. Walker et al. calibrated a global model with country-specific data (see the Perspective by Metcalf et al.).
The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries
Abstract The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic poses a severe threat to public health worldwide. We combine data on demography, contact patterns, disease severity, and health care capacity and quality to understand its impact and inform strategies for its control. Younger populations in lower income countries may reduce overall risk but limited health system capacity coupled with closer inter-generational contact largely negates this benefit.
COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data - Authors' reply
which explore some important sensitivities in the data that were available early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Wood and colleagues' re-analysis puts more weight on the We are grateful for Simon Wood and colleagues' comments on our study,Diamond Princess outbreak data, arriving at an infection fatality ratio (IFR) in the range 0·23–0·65%, whereas our analysis used data from repatriation flights out of Wuhan, leading to an IFR in the range 0·39–1·33%.
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Robert Verity, Lucy C Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Natsuko Imai, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Hayley Thompson, Patrick Walker, Han Fu, Amy Dighe, Jamie Griffin, Anne Cori, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma M Cucunuba, Rich Fitzjohn, Katy A M Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van-Elsand, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang,...
Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic was the largest public health crisis the world has faced in over 100 years.
The US President's Malaria Initiative, Plasmodium falciparum transmission and mortality: A modelling study
Although significant progress has been made in reducing malaria transmission globally in recent years, a large number of people remain at risk and hence the gains made are fragile. Funding lags well behind amounts needed to protect all those at risk and ongoing contributions from major donors, such as the President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), are vital to maintain progress and pursue further reductions in burden.
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