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Articles by Pratha Sah
Return on Investment of the COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign in New York City
[Skip to Navigation] Figure 1. Estimated Total Direct Health Care Costs and Value of a Statistical Life Lost Associated With COVID-19 in New York City in Scenarios With and Without Vaccination Whiskers represent 95% credible intervals. Figure 2. Return on Investment by Costs of Health Outcomes Averted for Every $1 Invested in New York City Vaccination From a Societal Perspective The shading represents the density of data distribution, and the error bar represents the range of data.
Impact of accelerating booster vaccination amidst Omicron surge in the United States
Abstract COVID-19 infections driven by the Omicron variant are sweeping across the United States. Although early evidence suggests that the Omicron variant may cause less severe disease than previous variants, the explosive spread of infections threatens to drive hospitalizations and deaths to unprecedented high levels, swamping already overburdened hospitals. Booster vaccination appears to be effective at preventing severe illness and hospitalization.
Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study
Summary Background Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. Methods We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC.
Population Immunity Against COVID-19 in the United States
Visual Abstract. Population Immunity Against COVID-19 in the United States. Much attention has been given to vaccination as a path to achieving herd immunity against COVID-19, but immunity in the population is gained from both natural infection and vaccination. In this study, the authors used statistical and simulation modeling as well as data on reported deaths to estimate overall and age-specific levels of population immunity against COVID-19 in the United States.
Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis
Significance Asymptomatic infections have been widely reported for COVID-19. However, many studies do not distinguish between the presymptomatic stage and truly asymptomatic infections. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of COVID-19 literature reporting laboratory-confirmed infections to determine the burden of asymptomatic infections and removed index cases from our calculations to avoid conflation.
Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City
Abstract Despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants, the number of cases in NYC has fallen from over 5,500 average daily cases in January, 2020 to less than 350 average daily cases in July, 2021. The impact of vaccination in saving lives and averting hospitalizations in NYC has not been formally investigated yet.
Can the USA return to pre-COVID-19 normal by July 4?
1 The New York Times See how the vaccine rollout is going in your county and state. President Joe Biden has set a goal of vaccinating 70% of adults by July 4 for the nation to return closer to pre-pandemic normal. However, at the current vaccination pace of fewer than 2·5 million doses per day, at least 50 million adults will still not be fully vaccinated by that date, along with more than 48 million unvaccinated children younger than 12 years.
Accelerated vaccine rollout is imperative to mitigate highly transmissible COVID-19 variants
Abstract Background More contagious variants of SARS-CoV-2 have emerged around the world, sparking concerns about impending surge in cases and severe outcomes. Despite the development of effective vaccines, rollout has been slow. We evaluated the impact of accelerated vaccine distribution on curbing the disease burden of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Buyer beware: inflated claims of sensitivity for rapid COVID-19 tests
Widespread COVID-19 testing is paramount for the receipt of timely medical care and for curtailing transmission. The USA continues to face formidable challenges in making testing accessible for all because efforts to scale up COVID-19 testing have fallen short. 1 Tromberg BJ Schwetz TA Pérez-Stable EJ et al. Rapid scaling up of COVID-19 diagnostic testing in the United States—the NIH RADx Initiative. N Engl J Med.
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks
Abstract Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission.
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks
Abstract Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission.
Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States
Significance Our results highlight that the growing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the United States could gravely challenge the critical care capacity, thereby exacerbating case fatality rates. In the absence of a preventive vaccine, efforts to contain the outbreak, such as improving self-isolation rates and encouraging better hygiene practices, can alleviate some of the pressures faced by the healthcare system during an outbreak.
Projecting the demand for ventilators at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been straining health-care systems worldwide. For countries still in the early phase of an outbreak, there is concern regarding insufficient supply of intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators to handle the impending surge in critically ill patients. To inform pandemic preparations, we projected the number of ventilators that will be required in the USA at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. 1 Moghadas SM Shoukat A Fitzpatrick MC et al.
Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States
Significance Our results highlight that the growing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the United States could gravely challenge the critical care capacity, thereby exacerbating case fatality rates. In the absence of a preventive vaccine, efforts to contain the outbreak, such as improving self-isolation rates and encouraging better hygiene practices, can alleviate some of the pressures faced by the healthcare system during an outbreak.
Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak
Significance To contain the global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19), border control measures, such as airport screening and travel restrictions, have been implemented in several countries. Our results show that these measures likely slowed the rate of exportation from mainland China to other countries, but are insufficient to contain the global spread of COVID-19.
Optimizing the impact of low-efficacy influenza vaccines
Significance The efficacy of the influenza vaccine against the predominant influenza strain appears to be relatively low during this 2017–2018 season. Our analyses demonstrate the substantial effect of even low-efficacy vaccines in averting infections, hospitalizations, and particularly deaths. Our results also demonstrate that the health burden resulting from influenza is more sensitive to changes to vaccination coverage than to changes to vaccine efficacy.
Unraveling the disease consequences and mechanisms of modular structure in animal social networks
Disease risk is a potential cost of group living. Although modular organization is thought to reduce this cost in animal societies, empirical evidence toward this hypothesis has been conflicting. We analyzed empirical social networks from 43 animal species to motivate our study of the epidemiological consequences of modular structure in animal societies.
Inferring social structure and its drivers from refuge use in the desert tortoise, a relatively solitary species
For several species, refuges (such as burrows, dens, roosts, nests) are an essential resource for protection from predators and extreme environmental conditions. Refuges also serve as focal sites for social interactions including mating, courtship and aggression.
Host contact and shedding patterns clarify variation in pathogen exposure and transmission in threatened tortoise
1. Most directly transmitted infections require some form of close contact between infectious and susceptible hosts to spread. Often disease models assume contacts are equal and use mean field estimates of transmission probability for all interactions with infectious hosts. 2. Such methods may inaccurately describe transmission when interactions differ substantially in their ability to cause infection.
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