Ramez Naam
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Articles by Ramez Naam
Can a Million AI Agents Create Superintelligence
This is a crosspost of my post on Noah Smith’s blog. Thanks Noah for the lively discussions, debates, and encouragment to put my thoughts down in a concrete form. In my previous post on RSI, we asked whether AIs could improve themselves all the way to absurdly high levels of superintelligence. My conclusion: today’s feedback loop is probably too weak, because improving AI faces diminishing returns at every step.
Can a Million AI Agents Create Superintelligence?
Ramez Naam is, in my opinion, one of the best futurists alive. But although he has a Substack (which you should definitely follow), he doesn’t write nearly enough. So I’ve been encouraging him to write more by cross-posting his posts on my blog. Somewhat to my surprise, Ramez has turned out to be a lot more of an AI skeptic than I would have though.
So where’s the ‘intelligence explosion?’
One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, long before other people did. His earlier book More than Human is still a great guide to the kind of biological enhancements that AI might make possible.
Where’s the “intelligence explosion”?
One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, long before other people did. His earlier book More than Human is still a great guide to the kind of biological enhancements that AI might make possible.
Where’s the “intelligence explosion”?
Ramez Naam gives a skeptic’s take on Recursive Self-Improvement. Art by GPT-6 One of my fundamental beliefs about the world is that Ramez Naam ought to blog more. Ramez is one of the world’s greatest futurists — he predicted the solar and battery revolutions long before these were widely understood. If you were reading Ramez in 2011, you were able to understand the future of both energy technology and climate change, long before other people did.
Two AI Futures to Choose From
There are two contrasting visions of a safe future with powerful AI: Singleton and Plural. 1. Singleton: A single ultra-powerful ASI, designed and built by the most trustworthy people, who also happened to get there first. 2. Plural: A world of broad, democratized access to a multitude of AI models, where the very fact that almost everyone has access to powerful AIs creates a more secure and resilient world. This Substack is reader-supported.
Books
NPR Best Book of the Year - Winner of the Prometheus Award - Winner of the Endeavour Award In the near future, the experimental nano-drug Nexus can link humans together, mind to mind. There are some who want to improve it. There are some who want to eradicate it. And there are others who just want to exploit it. When a young scientist is caught improving Nexus, he’s thrust over his head into a world of danger and international espionage - for there is far more at stake than anyone realizes.
A faster way to get to a clean energy future
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Andrej Karpathy: Books
The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect by Roger Williams, 2006 A twisted, raw, curious portrayal of a future with an AGI gone... mixed. Nexus by Ramez Naam, 2012 Highly enjoyable world-building set in a Neuralink future. Stories of Your Life and Others by Ted Chiang, 2002 Short Story collection. Required reading. My top 3 favorites are Understand, Story of Your Life, and Division by Zero. The Martian by Andy Weir, 2011 Castaway but on Mars. Excellent story. Cool science. Highly entertaining.
Putin's Invasion of Ukraine Will Accelerate Climate, Energy, and Deep Technologies
By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is accelerating the deployment of the very technologies that the world needs to wean itself off of fossil fuels and address the challenge of climate change. He's also set off a chain reaction that will accelerate innovation and deployment of all sorts of deep science and deep technologies involved in clean energy, transportation, manufacturing, mining, and processing of critical materials, aviation, and space.
5 questions for Sebastian Mallaby on the importance of venture capital
By James Pethokoukis and Sebastian Mallaby When economists and politicians talk about creating new Silicon Valley-style tech hubs, they often focus on research universities, government R&D funding, and entrepreneur-friendly regulations. But what often gets left out is the role of venture capital financing, which supplies the means for new ideas and products to scale up and enter the marketplace.
Venture capital, Silicon Valley, and the future of startups: My long-read Q&A with Sebastian Mallaby
By James Pethokoukis and Sebastian Mallaby Venture capitalists are derided as incompetent gamblers whose mistakes prop up worthless startups and whose successes are more the result of luck and branding than any actual skill. But some of Silicon Valley’s most valuable companies were backed with early VC financing. So what market function does venture capital serve? And what can trends in VC financing tell us about the future for startups?
Sebastian Mallaby: How venture capital creates the future
Podcast Ep. 271 — Political Economy with James Pethokoukis February 23, 2022 Most highly ambitious business ventures fail, but the ones that succeed can make billionaires of their early investors. Just look at the most valuable companies in the world today, many of which began as tech startups just a few decades ago. Venture capital firms, by providing early-stage financing for startups, have been conspicuous players in the rise of Silicon Valley since the beginning.
Populism, neo-liberalism, and bridges to opportunity: My long-read Q&A with Glenn Hubbard
By James Pethokoukis and R. Glenn Hubbard Populism is in vogue on the right today, with Republican politicians arguing for restrictions on immigration, trade, and automation, and conservative intellectuals questioning the value of economic growth that leaves disruption in its wake. In today’s episode of “Political Economy,” I’m joined by Glenn Hubbard to discuss how we can create bridges of opportunity to support Americans through economic turbulence.
Astronomy, sci-fi, and the roots of the space economy: My long-read Q&A with Alex MacDonald
By James Pethokoukis and Alex MacDonald The invention of reusable rockets has reduced the costs to launch satellites to orbit, catalyzing the emerging space economy. But as we look forward to the exciting future in space, it’s worth considering the past to get a better sense of how we got here. What’s the history of government and private investments in space exploration? And what inspired the pioneers of the 20th century who put man on the Moon?
By James Pethokoukis and R. Glenn Hubbard Populism is in vogue on the right today, with Republican politicians arguing for restrictions on immigration, trade, and automation, and conservative intellectuals questioning the value of economic growth that leaves disruption in its wake. In today’s episode of “Political Economy,” I’m joined by Glenn Hubbard to discuss how we can create bridges of opportunity to support Americans through economic turbulence.
Alex MacDonald: The economic history of private space exploration
Podcast Ep. 270 — Political Economy with James Pethokoukis February 16, 2022 The conventional narrative of American space exploration traces government efforts during the Cold War, with today’s private efforts regarded as recent phenomena riding on the coattails of NASA’s achievements. But today’s guest argues that private funding for space exploration goes back more than a century before Apollo. To get a better context for what’s happening in space today, I’ve brought on Alex MacDonald.
5 questions for Ramez Naam and Christie Iacomini on the future startups are creating
By James Pethokoukis, Ramez Naam, and Christie Iacomini In the 20th century, economic growth powered by technological progress and higher innovation-driven productivity delivered longer, healthier lives with higher living standards. And that kind of progress is just as valuable going forward as it has been in the past. Looking ahead to the year 2050, venture capital firm Prime Movers Lab has put together a “Breakthrough Science Roadmap” of the advances to come.
Advancing the world of atoms: My long-read Q&A with Ramez Naam and Christie Iacomini
By James Pethokoukis, Ramez Naam, and Christie Iacomini Fusion energy plants and commercial hypersonic aviation in the 2030s, floating cities in the 2040s, and partial reversal of human aging by 2050 — this isn’t a hypothetical from the pages of science fiction or even the optimistic vision of postwar futurists like Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov. These are the predictions of Wyoming-based venture capital firm Prime Movers Lab, which funds breakthrough scientific startups.
Announcing the Prime Movers Lab Breakthrough Science Roadmap
At Prime Movers Lab, we believe that two of the most powerful tools humanity has to improve the state of the world are science and technology. We invest in companies using breakthrough science to improve the lives of billions — by solving some of the greatest challenges humanity faces, or by providing humanity new capabilities that we’ve never had before. As investors in deep technology startups, we constantly ask ourselves: What’s next?
5 questions for Jamie Beard on the potential of geothermal energy
Jamie Beard Founder and Executive Director, Geothermal Entrepreneurship Organization, University of Texas at Austin By James Pethokoukis and Jamie Beard Is the future of clean energy right beneath our feet? By tapping into the infrastructure and expertise of the oil and gas industry, geothermal energy could deliver a scalable fossil fuel alternative.
5 questions for Arthur Turrell on fusion energy
By James Pethokoukis and Arthur Turrell Fusion energy has been the promise of physicists for decades, but is it finally arriving? As we face a warming climate and increasing energy needs, fusion power may hold the potential to deliver an abundant, clean energy future.
5 questions for Azeem Azhar on the effects of future technology
By James Pethokoukis and Azeem Azhar High tech innovations are driving rapid changes in society. Internet video conferencing is revolutionizing work; a smartphone can be found in nearly every American’s hand; and social media platforms have created their own culture of memes, tweets, and posts. What will be the landscape of these technological changes going forward? And how should our political and economic institutions respond? To answer these questions and more Azeem Azhar joined a recent podcast.
How has the pandemic affected American entrepreneurship? My long-read Q&A with John Haltiwanger
By James Pethokoukis and John Haltiwanger Before the COVID-19 pandemic, American dynamism was in decline, with business creation and labor market fluidity consistently falling since the year 2000. How has the shock of COVID affected these trends? Has it accelerated them by encouraging further risk aversion? Or have entrepreneurs risen to the occasion and met Americans’ changing needs over the past 18 months? I recently discussed these questions, and more, with John Haltiwanger.
John Haltiwanger: American entrepreneurs during the pandemic
Podcast Ep. 245 — Political Economy with James Pethokoukis EconomicsPethokoukisPolitical EconomyUS EconomyUS Labor Market July 29, 2021 Health safety measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic have shaken the American economy. Long term staples like indoor dining have taken a hit, while new opportunities have emerged in contactless services, telecommunications, and ecommerce. Just how have America’s entrepreneurs responded to these challenges and opportunities?
Is the pandemic recession over? My long-read Q&A with Michael Strain
By James Pethokoukis and Michael Strain The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed an economic downturn on the United States, forcing workers and businesses to adapt. Now that Americans are getting vaccinated and the country is opening up, what is the state of the US economy? How has the pandemic — and our public policy responses to it — affected the labor market? In a recent episode of Political Economy, Michael Strain joined me to discuss these questions and more. Mike is the Arthur F.
Does Affordable Clean Energy Make Economic Growth and Environmentalism Compatible? My Long-read Q&A with Ramez Naam
For decades, solar and wind energy were seen as promising technologies that were not affordable enough to replace fossil fuels on a society-wide scale. This may be changing, however. On this week’s episode of Political Economy, Ramez Naam explains how technological innovations have dramatically improved the viability of wind and solar energy, and he explores the implications this has on environmentalism and the de-growth movement.
The Rhetoric of Extinction
When reading of the wonders being prepared for us by researchers in the fields of robotics, genetic engineering, artificial intelligence, and nanotechnology, it is hard not to conclude that invention has become the mother of necessity.
All Together, Now
Published in Jan. 2020 (Issue 116) | 5947 words © 2017 by Jason M. Hough and Ramez Naam. Originally published in Mech: Age of Steel, edited by Tim Marquitz and Melanie R. Meadors. Reprinted by permission of the authors. Open your mind to me, human. NEURAL INTERFACE ACTIVE CALIBRATING SEMANTIC MAP SUBJECT: NON-COOPERATIVE Cease your struggles. They only prolong your misery. The outcome will be the same. CONNECTION ESTABLISHED UPLINK INITIATED There. That’s better, isn’t it? Tell me, can you feel it?
#SingularityUSouthAfrica2019: What happens when the world becomes linked?
Before the Singularity, there's something called SYNCularity. Humans are special - we're clever but weak and that's not enough. Our unique ability lies in communication and coordination. Ramez Naam delivering this presentation at the SingularityU South Africa 2019 Summit. Image supplied. The printing press supercharged our ability to spread ideas across society and that changed everything.
Exile from Extinction
Published in Sep. 2019 (Issue 112) | 4068 words © 2016 by Ramaz Naam. Originally published in Meeting Infinity, edited by Jonathan Strahan. Reprinted by permission of the author. They almost catch you in orbit. They almost slaughter you like the others. The airwaves are full of screams. Friends are dying. Loved ones are being lobotomized, turned into slaves. You hunker in the tiny spacecraft, your improvised last ditch escape, the lifeboat for you and the precious cargo you carry.
How to Turn Science Fiction into Science Fact
George Church is a geneticist at Harvard Medical School, but that title undersells him. He is very much an engineer, having developed technologies for sequencing DNA, editing genes, and manipulating stem cells. He’s also a beguiling prophet of radical biological change who urges caution even as he reminds people how tantalizing it all might be. Where is all this stuff heading?
How to Turn Science Fiction into Science Fact
George Church is a geneticist at Harvard Medical School, but that title undersells him. He is very much an engineer, having developed technologies for sequencing DNA, editing genes, and manipulating stem cells. He’s also a beguiling prophet of radical biological change who urges caution even as he reminds people how tantalizing it all might be. Where is all this stuff heading?
How far can renewables go? Pretty darn far
This is part 4 of a series looking at the economic trends of new energy technologies by the famous author and thinker Ramez Naam. Part 1 looked at how cheap solar can get (very cheap indeed). Part 2 looked at the declining cost and rising reliability of wind power. Part 3 looked at how cheap energy storage can get (pretty darn cheap). Now Naam discusses how far renewables can go. Renewables like solar and wind are plunging in price.
How to decarbonize America — and the world – TechCrunch
Ramez Naam Contributor More posts by this contributor The Green New Deal has burst onto the American stage, spurring more conversation about – and aspiration for – ambitious climate policy than at any point in at least a decade. I’m glad to see it. Suddenly, climate is on the agenda, and ambitions for climate policy are higher than perhaps at any point in US history. The Green New Deal is a resolution right now. It’s a statement of intent.
Thread by @ramez: "Hey, it's Friday night. How about a twitter thread of unpopular opinions about climate policy generally, and the specifically. […]" #GreenNewDeal #GND
Hey, it's Friday night. How about a twitter thread of unpopular opinions about climate policy generally, and the #GreenNewDeal specifically. Ready? Here we go. 1/ First, there's much to like about the #GreenNewDeal. But also much that could be better. An ideal climate policy: a) Makes a meaningful impact. b) Addresses problems the market isn't addressing itself. c) Is cost-effective. d) Is actually passable. Let's start with impact. 2/ The common wisdom on how climate policies have impact is wrong.
New coal will cost us ... and it will kill us
New coal will cost us ... and it will kill us This year’s long-awaited draft Integrated Resources Plan (IRP) for South Africa, which revises the IRP put forward in 2011, outlines how government plans to tackle the country’s energy demands leading up to 2030. It draws the clear and obvious conclusion that clean energy, especially solar, is the cheapest possible energy source for South Africa.
"Why do carbon taxes fall short? Here's a quick tweet thread on their limitations. For context, I am a carbon tax advocate, was on the board [â¦]"
12,399 views Why do carbon taxes fall short? Here's a quick tweet thread on their limitations. For context, I am a carbon tax advocate, was on the board of WA's 2016 revenue-neutral carbon tax initiative, etc.. (for @amcafee & others) 1/ https://twitter.com/amcafee/status/1094369701478756352 First, let me say that I still love carbon taxes, particularly carbon taxes that are used to reduce other taxes or send direct dividends back to the populace.
Don’t Let the Terrorists Win - White Supremacy Edition
We said that a lot after 9/11, and have for the last 16 years. As air travel became absurdly cumbersome, as civil liberties were eroded, as people were arbitrarily blacklisted or detained without room for appeal – we said the terrorists were winning, causing us to undermine the underpinnings of our own society, to crack down on the freedoms that are central to the principles of the United States.
M@h*(pOet)?ica-Louis Zukofsky's Integral
Editor's note (11/7/13): Find the entry point and new posts of Bob Grumman's M@h*(pOet)?ica at http://poeticks.com/ #StorySaturday is a Guest Blog weekend experiment in which we invite people to write about science in a different, unusual format – fiction, science fiction, lablit, personal story, fable, fairy tale, poetry, or comic strip. We hope you like it.
6 Ways GMOs Make Agriculture More Environmentally Friendly
This post was originally published on GMO Answers' Medium Page. Contrary to common myths, GMOs and the sustainable farming practices often used with them, significantly help to reduce our environmental footprint and preserve our natural resources. Today, through advances in crop biotechnology, GMOs like drought-tolerant corn can help farmers minimize losses associated with extreme weather events.
Healthcare Improvements Republicans Could Make
Here are some things the GOP could productively do on healthcare, that have little or nothing to do with repealing the ACA: 1. Price transparency and consistency. Require all providers (hospitals, doctors, etc..) to clearly publish their prices by service and by diagnosis in advance, physically and electronically, in both human and machine-readable formats. 2. Stop gouging the uninsured.
We Can Push For Progress at the State Level
Donald Trump won. The GOP has the Senate and the House. They’re likely to retain the Senate in 2018. Trump will get to appoint at least one, and probably multiple Supreme Court justices, with a (presumably) friendly Senate. Yet we live in a republic. And many of the most important issues can be fought for at the state level. Here are 6 that come to mind: 90% or so of the over 2 million people locked up in the US are at the state or local level.
Guest Editorial: To Fight Climate Change and Poverty, Vote YES on Initiative 732 - Slog - The Stranger
Guest Editorial: To Fight Climate Change and Poverty, Vote YES on Initiative 732 Want to fight climate change? Want to make polluters pay for the damage they cause our air, water, trees, and health? Want to give that money back to the people of Washington, especially the poorest among us? Well, welcome to Initiative 732! Last week, The Stranger endorsed I-732, an initiative on your ballot that does all the things above. We’re glad they did. Climate change is here, now, and it’s urgent.
Ramez Naam: Radical planetary optimism
Climate change, ocean acidification, overfishing, air pollution. We’re up against huge threats. At VERGE 16, science fiction author and "futurist" Ramez Naam argues that despite all this, history and the trends of technology show that we can turn the corner.
2016 offers these tastes of hope for the future
This is part 3 in a three-part series. Read parts 1 and 2 here.After highlighting VERGE leaders' impressions of 2016 and visions for 2017, we present our third and final installment of this year's series focused on the role of technology and systems-thinking in accelerating sustainability solutions.Here are 15 responses from inspiring and provocative VERGE movers and shakers, answering our third question: "Imagine it's 2030.
These technologies promise an impact in 2017
This is part 2 of a 3-part series.
5 Incredible Ways Scientists Are Merging Our Brains With Machines
I've been reading Ramez Naam's fantastic book "Nexus," which is set in a near-future where a powerful nano-drug allows human minds to connect together. In the story, a group of enterprising neuroscientists and engineers discover they can use the drug in a new way — to run a computer operating system inside their brains.
Wind Power Blowing More Reliably Than Ever
New wind turbines produce power more steadily – with less up and down intermittency – than ever before. As I wrote in August of last year, NREL believes that next-generation wind turbines can reach a capacity factor of 60%. That is up from a capacity factor of 30% just a few years ago. And it means, roughly, that these turbines would be producing wind power around 60% of the time – making them more and more viable as a substitute for ‘baseload’ power from coal or natural gas plants.
Nexus: Choosing Sides In The Trans-Human Revolution
In this fictitious world, all it takes is just a small vial of silvery fluid. Its illegal: very, very illegal. But if you can find it, just one vial is enough. Drink that down and soon the nano-scale molecular machines will work their way past the blood-brain barrier and begin coating the surfaces of your neurons. As the programmable "nanites" map the connections of neural network, in Ramez Naam's Nexus, you'll enter the calibration phase and be tripping out like a high-tech Timothy Leary.
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