Researching Ukraine

Ivan works at the Shahed plant in Tatarstan. With his new wages, he buys a new Xiaomi phone. He quickly loads it with his favorite apps, including a popular game already compromised by U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence. (He is likely also compromised by Chinese intel.) Ivan had already been identified as a possible access point by HUMINT assets in the area. The phone gives analysts a second stream of data.

Signs of Kremlin Coup. How close? I have been seeing a lot of war commentators argue that Putin is close to some kind of palace coup. While the signals are increasing, the most important indicators are not flashing red. Yet. For Putin to the inglorious club of Hussein, Ceaușescu, Qaddafi, and so many others, there first needs to be serious political infighting between the power factions of the Kremlin. Loyalty is clearly in short supply.

The AI Race Is Moving Faster Than AI Companies Like Anthropic recently argued that AI may soon reach a point where it meaningfully accelerates its own development, and in doing so outpaces all guardrails put on it. If that happens, governments will face difficult questions about control, oversight, and whether some form of coordinated slowdown becomes necessary. The problem is that every proposal for a pause eventually runs into the same obstacle: enforcement.