AbstractAn observed decline in the Eastern African Long Rains from the 1980s to late 2000s appears contrary to the projected increase under future climate change. This “Eastern African climate paradox” confounds use of climate projections for adaptation planning across Eastern Africa. Here we show the decline corresponds to a later onset and earlier cessation of the long rains, with a similar seasonal maximum in area-averaged daily rainfall.
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) describe narrow bands (around 300 km wide and 1000s of km in length) of intense moisture flux in the lower troposphere (around 1–2.5 km in altitude) which often deliver sustained and heavy rainfall to mid-latitude regions (e.g. western North America and western Europe), with associated flooding particularly in the winter half-year (October–March) [1–5].