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Articles by Robert Carlson
Question regarding double closings...
@Christopher Bohar I believe I know which transactional funding company you are referring to :) Here is an objective way to look at it (if you don't believe me, you can throw it out): If you can assign the contract, you don't need to double close. However, if you must double close, you have to have separate good funds for the AB transaction vs. the BC transaction. One cannot use the C buyer's money to purchase the AB transaction. Those days are long gone (8-9 years ago).
HODL & STCE: Two Ways to Profit from Cryptocurrency Rally
ETFs are a good way for most investors to hold Bitcoin, and the available ETFs are very similar. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) is one that gained 9.9% in the last four weeks. The Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF (STCE) is another ETF that holds a diversified portfolio of companies with exposure to digital assets, notes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. We added a small position in Bitcoin after the price fell earlier this year. The price declined again after the Liberation Day announcement.
RING: A Global Mining Fund to Help You Ride the Rally in Gold
Gold continues to deliver higher returns than stocks. Mining companies have built-in leverage. So, their stocks typically move in the same direction as gold, but by greater percentages. I like the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING), says Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Long-time readers know that I believe gold’s significant run to record highs primarily is the result of some central banks gradually moving a portion of their reserves out of dollar-based assets into gold.
Amid Important Anniversaries, Focus on Flexibility, Diversi
March 2025 contained significant anniversaries of major events. All these anniversaries show that improbable and unexpected events not only can happen but DO happen with some frequency. That’s why I always recommend having some diversification and balance in your investment portfolio and flexibility in your financial plans, writes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Patrick Henry delivered his “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death” speech 250 years ago.
HON: What its Breakup Announcement Says About Conglomerates
Is the Era of Conglomerates Over? When I was making my way through college, business conglomerates were the big thing and continued to be well-regarded for a long time. But some high-profile changes have cast doubt on conglomerates. Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is an example, remarks Rob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. A conglomerate is a company composed of several different businesses that operate more or less independently.
Why “Block and Tackling” is the Key to a Better Retirement
Many people make mistakes with their retirement finances because they pay too much attention to the financial media, especially cable television shows. The goal of most financial media isn’t to educate. It’s to attract and retain viewers, which they generally do by stimulating emotions, especially fear and excitement, advises Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
What It Is, What It’s Saying
The yield curve is about to turn positive, and that could mean a widely followed recession indicator gave a false signal for most of the last two years. The yield curve is a plot of the yields on Treasury debt of different durations. A normal yield curve is positively sloped, explains Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Typically, the debts with the lowest durations (such as Treasury bills) have the lowest interest rates.
PIN: Use this ETF to Profit from Gains in Indian Stocks
A margin of safety policy pays off. Most of our investments handled early August’s market meltdown better than the major stock market indexes. In market drops, they’ll hold up better than the major indexes while earning solid returns during high-spirited markets. Meanwhile, I recommend the Invesco India ETF (PIN), advises Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
FLJP: A Fund for Capitalizing on Stronger Returns in Japan
The investment world remains focused on that small number of US-based growth stocks that have outperformed the rest of the market by substantial margins and pushed the major indexes higher. That’s why many investors are missing some profitable events. I like a Japanese equity ETF that doesn’t hedge the yen currency, Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP), highlights Robert Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
RSP: An ETF to Profit from a Broader Rally
US growth companies with the largest capitalizations continued to rise relentlessly, pulling the S&P 500 with them. Money continues to flow into these stocks. That increases their returns, but also raises their valuations and reduces their margins of safety. I like one ETF to capture a potential broadening of the bull market, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), writes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
With Nasdaq Hitting New Highs, Some Historical Perspective Helps
The Nasdaq Composite Index exceeded 17,000 for the first time on May 28. But it has been a long climb for the index. And while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has been good in general for investors, timing does matter, notes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. After its inception in 1971, the Nasdaq didn’t break 1,000 until July 1995. It took another 1,095 trading days for it to break 2,000. By then, the tech stock bubble was beginning.
A Long/Short Fund That’s Attractive in this Uncertain Mar
Most of the stock market’s 2023 gains were concentrated in a few stocks dubbed the Magnificent Seven. Those stocks now are highly valued. But the rest of the market is moderately priced and it lagged well behind the indexes the last couple of years. So, I think more stocks will see solid gains in 2024 and like Boston Partners Global Long/Short Fund (BGRSX), says Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
(03/15/24) Bitcoin ETFs Help Boost Bitcoin Price...But What’s Next?
The new Exchange Traded Funds have been good for the price of Bitcoin. After a multi-year legal fight, ETF providers prevailed in 2023. A federal appeals court said the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) didn’t have a good reason to prohibit proposed ETFs that owned Bitcoin. A new development could fuel further gains, notes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. The SEC had already permitted ETFs that own Bitcoin futures contracts. Then on Jan.
It's Time to Look Beyond the Magnificent 7
Over the last couple of years, a few stocks, known generally as the Magnificent Seven, were responsible for most of the appreciation in the major stock market indexes. There’s too much risk in these stocks and the major indexes, observes fund expert Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Lower inflation, stable interest rates, and solid economic growth should boost prices in the broader stock market as the year progresses.
Hidden Tax Trap in New RMD Rules
New rules postpone the start of required minimum distributions (RMDs) until age 73—but not withdrawing money from traditional IRAs and 401(k)s until then could create a costly tax trap. Here’s why… Tax rates might rise in coming years. Unless Congress takes action, rates will rise after 2025—and it’s hard to imagine Washington politicians working together to lower taxes.
Can This Narrow Market Hold Up? Or Does Disappointment Loom?
After a sluggish start to 2024, the major stock indexes resumed moving upward. By Jan. 19, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average established new record highs. The S&P 500 continued to gain in five of the next six trading sessions. But the broad stock market isn’t doing as well as the major indexes and it won’t take a big disappointment or surprise to cause investors to move some money out of stocks, writes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
Don’t Count Out a Hedged Market Approach Yet
Investment markets bounced sharply higher in early November, reversing trends and relative returns in different investments. I don’t expect the new trend to be sustained – and that’s why I still recommend the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund (HSGFX), counsels Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. HSGFX has been struggling since the market bottom in October 2022.
IAU: An Insurance Play Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Turmoil
As interest rates increased the last few years, we gradually adopted what I call the barbell portfolio. It is going to be a good strategy for some time. Meanwhile, the Israel-Hamas war and other international conflicts should keep a floor under gold, so I recommend holding the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), explains Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
DLELX: An Emerging Market Bond Fund that Offers Good Value
Emerging market bonds provide good value now, especially when denominated in local currencies instead of the dollar. We’ve owned DoubleLine Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond (DLELX), which is positive for the year but has had ups and downs, notes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. A couple of key principles should be considered before taking any retirement or financial action. The first principle is: Take no one’s word for it.
Navigating Retirement in the 2020s
For the past four decades, retirees have enjoyed low prices on goods and services and long bull markets in both stocks and bonds. But retirement expert Robert Carlson warns that those halcyon days are over. Emerging long-term economic trends in the post-pandemic era will mean higher costs to borrow money, higher prices and a waning central bank influence on stock and bond markets. Investment returns will be lower…and lifetime taxes will be higher.
An Attractive, Actively Managed Fund that Bucks this Negative T
A minority of actively managed stock mutual funds beat the indexes or index funds. That’s well-known. Most people say the difference is due to the higher fees and expenses of actively managed funds. But it’s not the only reason for the performance difference, and it might not be the most important factor. One successful active fund I like is Oakmark Fund (OAKMX), writes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. A key reason for underperformance is the behavior of individual investors.
FLJH: As Japan Steps Back Into the Sun, this ETF Will Shine
The media seem to be dominated more than usual by negative takes on recent events and trends. But to expect the worst outcomes and be a long-term pessimist, you must ignore a lot of history and recent positive developments – including better market performance in Japan. Among the many quality ETFs that invest there, I recommend Franklin FTSE Japan Hedged ETF (FLJH), writes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch.
EWJV: Profit from Outperformance in Global Markets (for a Change)
Most US-based investors think primarily of US stocks when they consider stock investments. That home-country bias cost them so far in 2023 and is likely to cost them more over the next few years. Instead, consider the Japanese stock market and funds like the iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF (EWJV), suggests Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. US stocks dominated investment returns the last couple of decades, and US growth stocks delivered far higher returns than other investments.
Four Flexible Funds for a Cautious Market
Markets are at or approaching another turning point, and your portfolio needs to be prepared, cautions, Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Premature investor optimism triggered what is likely another bear market rally; here, I explained why I believe we’ve been in a bear market rally and stock prices are likely to work their way lower, probably below the lows of October 2022. Our portfolios are prepared for what comes next, no matter when it starts, with a tweak or two to make this month.
LCORX: A Flexible Fund for This Bearish Market Environment
Leuthold Core Investment (LCORX) uses measures of market trends and technical factors to shift positions among all the major investment assets based on valuations and momentum. It’s a solid play in this bearish market environment, says Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Stock investors should be concerned about profit margins and earnings here. Slower economic growth should lead to further declines in the revenues and earnings of most publicly traded companies.
Interest Rate Optimism Fades as Debt, Inflation Concerns Build
Many investors believed interest rates peaked in late 2022. The optimism about rates (and inflation) was probably wrong, warns Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. First, a little history: The yield on the 10-year treasury note reached 4.25% in October 2022 and began falling. By late January 2023, the yield was below 3.50%. Throughout that period, futures market prices indicated investors believed interest rates would decline steadily for the next few years.
CD Alternative | Bottom Line Inc
In today’s chaotic financial markets, cash is king. If you’re looking for safe, guaranteed income from your cash, nothing is as attractive as multiyear guaranteed annuities (MYGAs)—the annuity industry’s version of bank CDs. For comparison, the best five-year FDIC-insured bank CD carried a recent 4.42% annual yield…a comparable MYGA from a top-rated insurer yielded 5.2%. MYGAs are insurance contracts purchased through a licensed insurance agent in your state of residence.
Flexible Funds for Retirement Planning
Inflation probably peaked for this cycle, but the Federal Reserve still has a lot of work to do, suggests retirement strategist Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. Investors already fooled themselves a couple of times in 2022 by concluding prematurely that the Fed was done tightening monetary policy and soon would adopt a looser one. The expectation of easier monetary policy is premature.
Retirement Expert Eyes Managed Futures
In our Sector, Balanced and Income Growth portfolios, we are initiating a strategy that does well in bear markets: managed futures, explains Bob Carlson, a retirement investing expert and editor of Retirement Watch. In this strategy, the investment manager buys and sells futures contracts following a predetermined process. Managed futures weren’t available to individual investors on reasonable terms until fairly recently.
MoneyShow Orlando Preview: Bob Carlson
We’re likely entering a period of stagflation, observes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch — and a participant in The MoneyShow Orlando, October 30 to November 1. Register here. Earnings and profit margins will have to decline for the Fed to achieve its goals. Current stock market prices and most analysts’ forecasts don’t reflect the likelihood of lower earnings and margins. Financial assets, especially stock prices, have performed better than the economy for many years now.
Favorite Flexible Funds for Retirees
Our portfolios hold several mutual funds that can respond to changing market conditions by investing in a wide range of assets and selling short stocks or indexes. Those features are important in today’s environment, observes Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. A two-pronged approach is in place at Hussman Strategic Growth (HSGFX). First, the fund owns a diversified portfolio of more than 270 stocks that have above-average growth but sell at reasonable valuations.
Successful Strategies with Hussman and Leuthold
Don’t expect the Fed to put a floor under stock prices and rescue investors, cautions Bob Carlson, fund and ETF expert and editor of Retirement Watch. There will be bear market rallies in stocks and other assets and occasional declines in interest rates. But those will be temporary trends until high inflation expectations are diminished. There won’t be sustained rallies in stocks and many other investments until it is clear the Fed will loosen monetary policy.
Time for a Hedge Fund?
Most stock funds have suffered sharp losses this year because they can make money only one way—the stocks they own must rise in price. But some mutual funds employ hedging strategies such as shorting (betting against) stocks and buying and selling options and futures, which can deliver decent returns, or at least moderate losses.
Retirement Watch Bets on Cambria
This is not a good time for investors seeking income to reach for higher yields. Rising interest rates and the possibility the Fed might trigger a recession increase the risk of many high-yielding investments, explains Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. In our Retirement Paycheck portfolio, we seek above-average yields while maintaining a margin of safety and the potential for capital gains.
A Trio of Flexible Funds
At this point in the investment cycle, we want to retain exposure to stocks — but with flexible managers who can focus on pockets of the markets, reduce stock exposure and even sell short or hedge at their discretion, suggests Bob Carlson, editor of Retirement Watch. One such holding is Cromwell Marketfield (MFADX), which has the ultimate flexibility. It can invest in almost any asset. It also can use derivatives and sell short.
Retirement Picks for a Margin of Safety
It is time to reduce the risk in our portfolios and increase the margin of safety, cautions Bob Carlson, ETF and mutual fund expert and editor of Retirement Watch. The Fed fell behind the curve on inflation. It won’t be supporting stock prices again until inflation is near its target,As such, we're selling some great long-term funds that were doing well — but don’t have the margins of safety I want now and will be hurt as economic growth slows.
If You're In Retirement, It's Time To Emphasize Safety
By Robert Carlson We need to focus primarily on preserving capital. We’ll take the income the markets give and won’t stretch for higher yields. Interest rates are likely to continue rising. More importantly, slower growth will continue to raise concerns about the safety of many income sources investors flocked to in recent years. Emphasizing safety now is easier, because interest rates on safer investments are well above their levels of just a couple of years ago.
United States needs to lead again
The United States is withdrawing from world leadership and abandoning a position we have held since WWII. The last 75 years of our leadership led to unparalleled prosperity and progress for America, our allies and friends.But in recent months, the U.S. is pulling out of institutions and agreements that we helped create. The Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement was designed to counter China’s trade and political power in the Pacific.
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