Teach: @CtrRelPol | Research: @myfaithcounts | Books: The Nones, Great Dechurching, Vanishing Church | Former Pastor: @AmericanBaptist | Graphs about Religion
Articles by Ryan Burge
You Can’t Move a Church to the Suburbs
One time I was listening to this podcast (remember podcasts?) about how “creators” think about their craft. The host was interviewing this young guy who made short videos for TikTok and Facebook Reels and all that. He asked the guy how much he thought about failure. And he basically responded, “not that much because people will quickly forget a video that doesn’t catch on.
Are 'Real' Catholics as Conservative as Evangelicals? Still no.
I know I have written this before, but my “perch” in the discourse is a very odd one. When I post a graph on social media, I can get hundreds of comments. A lot of them on Twitter are just anonymous weirdos. I try not to read too many of them, but I actually do find some of them kind of valuable because they can offer me insights into how random people on the internet understand my corner of the world.
The Math On Orthodox Christian Growth Doesn’t Add Up (Yet)
(ANALYSIS) On my public Facebook page I receive (and this is not an exaggeration) about 900 comments a day. That’s a lot to process, and honestly only a small fraction feel truly instructive or insightful — maybe less than 10%. A good chunk are people using the comments to air grievances about politics or religion, and another sizable group is asking for the data source, which is always listed in the bottom right of the graph. But there’s one category of comment that’s become its own genre.
The Surprising Role Of Churches On Election Day
(ANALYSIS) Where do you go to vote on Election Day? I am assuming that all you readers are actually voting. If you don’t, it’s my solemn duty as a classically trained political scientist to tell you that your vote matters and all that. I’ve voted in a bunch of different places in my life, especially when I was in college and graduate school. One was at a strip mall that had an empty storefront. But thinking back on it now, I think I’ve probably voted in churches more than any other location.
The Math on Orthodox Christian Growth Doesn't Add Up (Yet)
On my public Facebook page I receive (and this is not an exaggeration) about 900 comments a day. That’s a lot to process, and honestly only a small fraction feel truly instructive or insightful — maybe less than 10%. A good chunk are people using the comments to air grievances about politics or religion, and another sizable group is asking for the data source, which is always listed in the bottom right of the graph. But there’s one category of comment that’s become its own genre.
Why Don’t Religious “Nones” Want Kids?
I was looking at my high school yearbook the other day. Don’t judge me. It’s something that people who grew up in small towns do on a regular basis when they see something on Facebook about someone roughly their age who is being arrested or has died. Sometimes I can’t remember if I went to school with that person, so off to the yearbook I go. I started thumbing through the first couple of pages and found a layout that featured my graduation from Salem Community High School.
Where Do Americans Vote? The Surprising Role of Churches in Election Day
Where do you go to vote on Election Day? I am assuming that all you readers are actually voting. If you don’t, it’s my solemn duty as a classically trained political scientist to tell you that your vote matters and all that. I’ve voted in a bunch of different places in my life, especially when I was in college and graduate school. One was at a strip mall that had an empty storefront. But thinking back on it now, I think I’ve probably voted in churches more than any other location.
Catholic Schools And Weekly Mass Aren’t Solving The Retention Crisis
(ANALYSIS) A couple of months ago, I wrote a post about the retention crisis facing the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The headline finding is pretty straightforward: nearly half the kids who are raised as LDS no longer identify that way as adults.
Catholic Schools And Weekly Mass Aren’t Solving The Retention Crisis
AI Might Be Conscious. If So, God Help Us. (ANALYSIS) AI is everywhere. But while it’s undeniably omnipresent, is anyone actually home upstairs?According to a researcher, the answer is yes. …
Catholic Schools and Weekly Mass Aren’t Solving the Retention Crisis
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. A couple of months ago, I wrote a post about the retention crisis facing the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
Canada’s Religious Revival That Never Came
(ANALYSIS) Graduate school taught me plenty of technical skills: how to think carefully about causality, how to measure abstract concepts, and how to build statistical models that could separate signal from noise. It also taught me something less tangible. If you want to become truly good at scholarship, it has to be your primary obsession — at least for a while. There isn’t much room for hobbies when you’re trying to master a craft.
Canada's Religious Revival That Never Came
Graduate school taught me plenty of technical skills: how to think carefully about causality, how to measure abstract concepts, and how to build statistical models that could separate signal from noise. It also taught me something less tangible. If you want to become truly good at scholarship, it has to be your primary obsession—at least for a while. There isn’t much room for hobbies when you’re trying to master a craft.
What Can We Learn From The 100 Largest United Methodist Churches?
(ANALYSIS) Whenever you think about the very largest churches in the United States, what denominations come to mind? I think that most of you, if you’ve been following along with this newsletter for any amount of time, would think of non-denominationalism. Maybe a Southern Baptist church. And the data says that this is largely the case. I’ve written about the Outreach 100 list before – it’s the best dataset of the largest churches in the United States.
What Can We Learn from the 100 Largest United Methodist Churches?
Whenever you think about the very largest churches in the United States, what denominations come to mind? I think that most of you, if you’ve been following along with this newsletter for any amount of time, would think of non-denominationalism. Maybe a Southern Baptist church. And the data says that this is largely the case. I’ve written about the Outreach 100 list before – it’s the best dataset of the largest churches in the United States.
Why Do American Protestants Own So Many Bibles?
(ANALYSIS) I grew up very evangelical in a very evangelical time. A Southern Baptist born in 1982 and raised in a family where going to church wasn’t just something you did a couple of times per year, it was a regular rhythm of the week. It just so happened that evangelicalism hit its numerical peak in the United States in the mid-1990s, right when young, impressionable Ryan was entering a youth group for the first time.
Why Do You Have SO MANY BIBLES?
I grew up very evangelical in a very evangelical time. A Southern Baptist born in 1982 and raised in a family where going to church wasn’t just something you did a couple of times per year, it was a regular rhythm of the week. It just so happened that evangelicalism hit its numerical peak in the United States in the mid-1990s, right when young, impressionable Ryan was entering a youth group for the first time.
Are Evangelicals Holding the Line Against Secularization?
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. Let’s say we did a random sample of the adult population of Ohio in 1985.
Are Black Protestants and White Evangelicals Actually the Same?
Classifying American religion is hard. It’s nearly impossible, really. There are hundreds of denominations, and that doesn’t even include all the variations of non-denominational churches that are popping up all over the United States. But part of the role of social science is to try and bring some order and structure to such a messy landscape. And there’s no way to do it in a way that makes everyone happy.
Why Private Religion and Public Religion Tell Different Stories
Religious behavior is almost always assessed through one simple measure - frequency of religious attendance. And there’s a good reason for that: it’s included in basically every survey of American adults. So it’s easy to just copy and paste it from another long running instrument and know that it’s already gone through multiple rounds of critical assessment by other folks in the field. The problem with that, as you can probably guess, is that it’s overly reductive.
Why Do Educated People Attend Church More?
(ANALYSIS) What do we do with the time that we have? That’s one of the most important questions we face, in my estimation. It’s certainly something I struggle with on a day-to-day basis. I have a really hard time taking a vacation that lasts more than four or five days because I feel a deep sense of guilt that I’m not doing enough with my life. It’s that pesky Protestant work ethic that I will never be able to shake. And don’t try to lecture me about it in the comments, either.
Why Do Educated People Go to Church More?
Are you a social scientist who wants to do an experiment related to religion and politics and need some funding to make that possible? I have partnered with the team who is organizing Survey Experiments for the Scientific Study of Religion to help publicize this program. You can read about it below, along with a link to apply for funding. And expect some of the posts on Graphs about Religion in 2027 to use data collected through this research initiative.
Parents and Adult Children Aren't Fighting as Much as TikTok Thinks
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. I don’t listen to podcasts that much anymore, but I still have a couple that I check out on a regular basis. One that’s still in my queue is from the New York Times and it’s called The Interview.
The Religious Behavior Index: How Engaged Are Americans, Really?
In 1972, 41% of Americans in the General Social Survey reported that they attended religious services nearly every week or more. In 2024, that share had declined to just about 25%. At the same time, the share of those who never attend religious services rose from 9% to 30%. If I include people who attend more than never but less than once a year, those percentages become 17.5% and 40.5%, respectively.
Who Do You Talk To When You’re Struggling?
(ANALYSIS) Who do you talk to when you’re struggling? When it feels like you’re carrying the weight of the world and there’s no way out of the mess you’re in — who can you turn to for an honest conversation? I’d bet that for a lot of us, the answer is “no one.” Many Americans are suffering in silence, without a spouse, a close friend, or even a co-worker they can lean on when times get tough. The loneliness epidemic has real casualties. Of that, I am absolutely sure.
Who Do You Talk to When You’re Struggling?
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. Who do you talk to when you’re struggling? When it feels like you’re carrying the weight of the world and there’s no way out of the mess you’re in—who can you turn to for an honest conversation?
Freedom for the Thought That We Hate
There’s a quote out there that’s often attributed to the French philosopher Voltaire, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” But like a lot of quotes, it doesn’t appear that Voltaire ever uttered that phrase. Instead, it emerged from the writing of biographer Evelyn Beatrice Hall in a book she published in 1906 which tried to summarize Voltaire’s views on freedom of speech.
Freedom for the Thought That We Hate
There’s a quote out there that’s often attributed to the French philosopher Voltaire, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.” But like a lot of quotes, it doesn’t appear that Voltaire ever uttered that phrase. Instead, it emerged from the writing of biographer Evelyn Beatrice Hall in a book she published in 1906 which tried to summarize Voltaire’s views on freedom of speech.
The Two Dimensions of Religious Belief in America
I’ve always been under the impression that people have a very different approach to belief. Some can listen to a sermon where the pastor speaks with certainty and conviction about salvation through Jesus alone and feel completely compelled by that message. Folks like this tend to lean toward black and white thinking. They like structure and order and believe that the Bible provides them with a perfect guidebook for how to live their lives in almost every circumstance.
When Do We Become the Person We Ought to Be?
About a year ago, I got an email from an undergraduate at Notre Dame University. Anna Bohlen wanted to know if she could work with me on this newsletter. I am always trying to find ways to collaborate with some aspiring data analysts, so I was intrigued. After a couple of emails and a Zoom meeting, we developed a plan of action. Anna would apply for a few small grants at Notre Dame and, if she won one of them, we would field a survey together and write up some of the results.
Why We Don’t Really Know What America Believes
(ANALYSIS) Let’s get nerdy. For those of you who sit around and wonder about the intricacies of polling about religion, this is the post for you. Let me start by stating a fact that seems incomprehensible to even type out, but it undergirds almost every single graph that I produce: we don’t actually know the religious composition of the United States with any real precision. I know that sounds bizarre.
How Well Do We Actually Know American Religion?
Let’s get nerdy. For those of you who sit around and wonder about the intricacies of polling about religion, this is the post for you. Let me start by stating a fact that seems incomprehensible to even type out, but it undergirds almost every single graph that I produce: we don’t actually know the religious composition of the United States with any real precision. I know that sounds bizarre.
Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?
(ANALYSIS) Confession time: My wife and I watch a lot of reality TV. I’ve always loved it, really. Even back to “The Osbornes” and “Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica” on MTV. When I was in college, we had “Survivor” night. It was always Thursday. We would gather around in someone’s apartment, watch the show, complain about who got eliminated, then walk to the Vespers service across campus. Those were great memories.
Do Religious Families Actually Have More Kids?
Confession time – my wife and I watch a lot of reality TV. I’ve always loved it, really. Even back to The Osbornes and Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica on MTV. When I was in college, we had Survivor night. It was always Thursday. We would gather around in someone’s apartment, watch the show, complain about who got eliminated, then walk to the Vespers service across campus. Those were great memories.
Belief Isn't Dying, It's Just Getting Less Certain
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. One of the most common critiques I hear about survey research on religion is that it flattens something that is deeply personal and profoundly complex. Questions about belief certainly fall into this trap.
Belief And Belonging: Which US Racial Group Is The Most Religious?
(ANALYSIS) Every once in a while, an academic book gets published with a title that’s hard for me to forget. I mean, “Bowling Alone” is just an all-timer, right? What most people don’t know is that Putnam’s first book about Italy is assigned much more frequently in graduate schools. I know I read it in the Comparative Politics ProSeminar, but I couldn’t remember the name — it’s “Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy.” Not nearly as catchy.
Which Racial Group Is the Most Religious?
Every once in a while, an academic book gets published with a title that’s hard for me to forget. I mean, Bowling Alone is just an all-timer, right? What most people don’t know is that Putnam’s first book about Italy is assigned much more frequently in graduate schools. I know I read it in the Comparative Politics ProSeminar, but I couldn’t remember the name — it’s Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Not nearly as catchy.
The LDS Church Has A Retention Problem
(ANALYSIS) I often think of religious traditions as a styrofoam cup. Each of them has a different level of water in them at any given time. However, that volume of water never stays fixed for long, because religious groups operate in a volatile environment with constant pressure to rise or fall. The most unavoidable pressure is generational replacement. People will die and new people will be born every single day.
So You Want Your Child to Keep the Faith?
Here’s one of the things that I have become more and more convinced of the longer I look at trends in American religion – you can’t convert your way out of a shrinking congregation. There are traditions who make this a point of emphasis, of course. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has, in my mind, the most robust missionary network of any religious group in the history of the world. They send young men and women out across the globe to try and convert new people to the LDS church.
Finance Majors Go to Church. English Majors Don't
If you hang around a college campus long enough, you quickly begin to realize that a lot of the stereotypes are true, especially on the faculty side of things. Every college has a whole bunch of “deadwood.” These are professors who got to full professor about ten years ago and just stopped doing anything more than the bare minimum. They are just counting down the days until they retire.
Finance Majors Go to Church. English Majors Don’t.
If you hang around a college campus long enough, you quickly begin to realize that a lot of the stereotypes are true, especially on the faculty side of things. For example, every college has a whole bunch of “deadwood.” These are professors who got to full professor about ten years ago and just stopped doing anything more than the bare minimum. They are just counting down the days until they retire.
The LDS Church Has a Retention Problem
This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). The graphs you see here use data that is publicly available for download and analysis through link(s) provided in the text below. I often think of religious traditions as a styrofoam cup. Each of them has a different level of water in them at any given time.
Where Does Alcoholics Anonymous Go When the Churches Close?
Every once in a while I will get interviewed for a story about a church closure or the decline of religion or something similar and this question will come up, “Why should non-believers really pay attention to this downward trend?
The Mainline Political Divide: Does Education Change the Story?
(ANALYSIS) Back in November, I wrote a post that I knew was going to cause a stir because it answered one of the most burning questions in my mind: “How Big is the Political Divide Between Mainline Clergy and Laity?” The Public Religion Research Institute had done a wonderful survey of pastors in the mainline Protestant tradition, and it allowed me to actually document, with as much accuracy as possible, the political differences between those who stand in the pulpit and those who sit in the...
3 Things You’re Getting Wrong About Religion Data
(ANALYSIS) Today’s post is going to be a bit different than the usual stuff you get on my newsletter. Instead of just focusing on a single question and making a bunch of graphs that try to figure out that causal puzzle, I am going to share a few things that I’ve learned after doing this kind of work for the last 10 years. I see people make assumptions about data and statistical analysis that just make me scratch my head. So, this is a rant of sorts.
3 Things You’re Getting Wrong About Religion Data
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Mainline Clergy Are Different — And It's Not Because of Who They Are
Back in November, I wrote a post that I knew was going to cause a stir because it answered one of the most burning questions in my mind: “How Big is the Political Divide Between Mainline Clergy and Laity?” The Public Religion Research Institute had done a wonderful survey of pastors in the mainline Protestant tradition, and it allowed me to actually document, with as much accuracy as possible, the political differences between those who stand in the pulpit and those who sit in the pews of the...
Three Things You're Getting Wrong About Religion Data
Today’s post is going to be a bit different than the usual stuff you get on my newsletter. Instead of just focusing on a single question and making a bunch of graphs that try to figure out that causal puzzle, I am going to share a few things that I’ve learned after doing this kind of work for the last ten years. I see people make assumptions about data and statistical analysis that just make me scratch my head. So, this is a rant of sorts.
Half of Gen Z says Trump support keeps them out of church
No matter how many Americans say they don’t want to see politics and religion mix, it’s inevitable those two forces will collide in one way or another. For instance, when the average American thinks about President Donald Trump’s supporters, there’s a high likelihood that they will conjure images of white evangelicals who have cast ballots for him in huge majorities over the past three election cycles.
The Socializing Power of the Pew: How Church Closes the Education Gap
If you’ve been around my work at all, you know very well that the relationship between education and religious attendance cuts against the prevailing view. If you walked up to the average American and asked them, “Who is more likely to go to church this weekend — a person who earned no more than a high school diploma or someone with a graduate degree?” I bet that the vast majority of those being quizzed would choose the person with less education.
Half of Gen Z says Christian support for Trump keeps them out of church
(RNS) — No matter how many Americans say they don’t want to see politics and religion mix, it’s inevitable those two forces will collide in one way or another. For instance, when the average American thinks about Donald Trump’s supporters, there’s a high likelihood that they will conjure images of white evangelicals who have cast ballots for him in huge majorities over the last three election cycles.
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