Ryan Newman
Chicago
Director of Football Analytics at LFC FB, Founder of FPS and writer at Betting Pros
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Articles by Ryan Newman
Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient Introduces Seamless Continuum of Care Model Original
DELRAY BEACH, FL, Sept. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DELRAY BEACH, FL - September 29, 2026 - Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient in Delray Beach, Florida has introduced a continuum of care model designed to address one of the most persistent challenges in addiction treatment: the gap that often occurs when patients transition out of residential care.
Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient Introduces Seamless Continuum of Care Model
DELRAY BEACH, FL, Sept. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DELRAY BEACH, FL - September 29, 2026 - Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient in Delray Beach, Florida has introduced a continuum of care model designed to address one of the most persistent challenges in addiction treatment: the gap that often occurs when patients transition out of residential care.
Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient Introduces Seamless Continuum of Care Model
DELRAY BEACH, FL, Sept. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- DELRAY BEACH, FL - September 29, 2026 - Guardian Recovery - Immersion Outpatient in Delray Beach, Florida has introduced a continuum of care model designed to address one of the most persistent challenges in addiction treatment: the gap that often occurs when patients transition out of residential care.
The Senate's choice is clear: Confirm Todd Blanche or ignore the voters
The Senate Judiciary Committee is taking up Todd Blanche 's nomination to be attorney general of the United States. Having served as lawyers on that committee as well as for two different attorneys general appointed by President Donald Trump , we agree that he is exceptionally well-qualified to lead the Department of Justice. Blanche should be voted favorably out of the committee, allowing the Senate to promptly confirm him as attorney general.
The Senate’s choice is clear: Confirm Todd Blanche or ignore the voters
The Senate Judiciary Committee is taking up Todd Blanche‘s nomination to be attorney general of the United States. Having served as lawyers on that committee as well as for two different attorneys general appointed by President Donald Trump, we agree that he is exceptionally well-qualified to lead the Department of Justice. Blanche should be voted favorably out of the committee, allowing the Senate to promptly confirm him as attorney general.
Ryan Newman Talks 2024 Plans
Podcast: Play in new window | Download Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Podcasts | Spotify | RSS | More On this episode with Bringing the Heat with Bryan Nolen, Frontstretch‘s Trenton Worsham talks with NASCAR Cup Series driver and defending Camping World SRX Series champion Ryan Newman. They discuss his return to the Cup Series (and what’s in store for 2024), winning the SRX title and his hobbies off the track.
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Google Images Creative Commons Licenses If you are a sports fan and gamer, you’ll know there’s nothing better than combining your interests. Soccer has FIFA and Pro Evo. Athletics has the usual Olympic Gold games that proceed each Olympic Games every four years. If boxing is more your thing, you have some classics to look back on, including Knockout Kings.
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For those in the industry, be it analysts employed by third parties (PFF, Football Outsiders, etc) or coaches trying to gain an edge, the offseason is really the “regular season”. That is, when we have the time, data and models ready to answer questions that handicappers, coaching staffs and talking heads have been (or should be) asking last fall.
TikTok on the Clock, but the Party’s Gonna Stop | JD Supra
[co-author: Emmy Edwards]* TikTok out at all state agencies, including institutions of higher education On December 7, Governor Greg Abbott ordered “aggressive action against TikTok” on government-issued devices in the state of Texas in response to reports of the application’s substantial data harvesting. This directive came as part of a wave of state and federal government action aimed at curbing risks TikTok’s dangers on government devices.
WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 17 (2022 Fantasy Football)
If you’re reading this, congrats! I assume you’ve reached your league’s championship/at least something to play for this weekend. For those unfamiliar, this weekly article is a depiction of our models that leverage advanced data to hone in on player matchups AND defensive tendencies to predict what WRs are more or less likely to “boom” in a given week.
WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 16 (2022 Fantasy Football)
Hopefully, if you’re reading this, you’re in your fantasy league playoffs and are inches away from that ring. For those unfamiliar, this weekly article depicts our models that leverage advanced data to hone in on player matchups AND defensive tendencies to predict what WRs are more or less likely to “boom” in a given week.
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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football) If you haven’t started your league’s fantasy playoffs in week 14, you’re definitely in the thick of it now. If you’re new to the series, the purpose of this piece is to help you navigate a tricky landscape, ignore the noise from talking heads and hone in on PREDICTIVE variables to help you determine your WR lineup. Let’s jump right in.
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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 13 (2022 Fantasy Football) Another crazy week in the NFL, and here we go at another attempt trying to predict the NEARLY unpredictable.
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When using data to predict outcomes, the larger the sample the better. With that, season long futures bets allow for more data to be considered than any game-by-game position. And of all stat futures you can bet in football, sacks COULD be the easiest to leverage advanced data to gain an edge: Use of a “absent” Strength of Schedule (so far vs.
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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 9 (2022 Fantasy Football) We are officially at the halfway point of the season. As we have noted before between the extreme levels of parity across the board, and offensive production being on a downswing, it’s more important than ever to find value in our WR selections for the week. The hope is the models below will help you get there. Let’s jump right in. Week 8 Results: After a very strong week 7, we came back to earth with our first losing week on the season.
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Managing bye weeks is a part of fantasy football, yet this week is especially tough on star WRs. Yes, last week Davante Adams’ owners were down their key man, but this week with the Bills, Rams, Vikings and Eagles off on bye. This means that the top 3 WRs in Fantasy Football are out of this week’s lineups, and navigating DFS/starting lineups at the position is especially important. Hopefully, this piece gives you the info you need to make the right decisions.
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We will get to the matchups in a minute, but have been wondering to yourself, “wow, the league sure seems like its full of parity this season” you are not alone. According to Football Outsiders: “the standard deviation of total DVOA after Week 5 is 17.4%.
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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football) With 3 weeks under our belt, this NFL season has been as whacky as ever. Beyond teams like the Jaguars sitting at #2 by DVOA, we’re having countless priors challenged, particularly in the passing game.
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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 3 (2022 Fantasy Football) We’re only a couple weeks into the NFL season and we have already had The “Least Likely Loser” in PGWE (postgame winning expectation) since Football Outsiders started tracking it A Super Bowl Loser that has lost 2 straight games to start the season as a 7-point or better favorite for the first time ever Of course a WR1 Ranking Table that includes: Amon-Ra St Brown, Jahan Dotson and Devin Duvernay.
WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 3 (2022 Fantasy Football)
We’re only a couple of weeks into the NFL season, and we have already had: The “Least Likely Loser” in PGWE (post-game winning expectation) since Football Outsiders started tracking it A Super Bowl Loser that has lost two straight games to start the season as a seven-point or better favorite for the first time ever Of course, a WR1 ranking table that includes: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahan Dotson and Devin Duvernay. And that’s really what brings you here today.
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Although I made every attempt to deflate my own model’s efforts last week, hopefully, you tuned in. Besides the fact that I stand by “Coverage Predicting Models” are barely causal, AND the sheer notion we are using last year’s data for most of this for the first few weeks, we managed a pretty solid week to kick off this series. I’ll save you from the rest of the self-deprecating preamble, and allow you to simply check on the previous week’s WR vs.
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It’s no secret that QBs are the most critical position to winning football games. However, HOW a QB operates, HOW he wins (or loses) games come in all “shapes and sizes”. And I’m not referring to obvious differentiators like running QB vs dropback passer. Instead, now equipped with cutting-edge tracking data, we can identify and “bucket” certain TYPES of passers in the NFL. That is the handful of most telling characteristics that add up to define WHO A QB IS, or better yet, his QB Archetype.
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I must share a major disclaimer before jumping into to this: Pass Coverage performance as a whole, regardless of what metric you use, is by far the most volatile of datapoints. Hence, ANY model built to predict outcomes based on coverage ability (using the past to predict the future) must be taken with a hefty appetite for variance. This is said in the most macro of senses. That is, compared to other advanced statistics coverage data tend to be more elastic.
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Using variance from 2021, compared to the change in (priced) win total in 2022 we find profitable opportunities among NFL Win Totals in 2022. Between our 3 different publications, over the last 6 years, we have published a painfully accurate, “NFL Going Up/Down” article every season. And with each passing year we have improved the model to really hone in on the relevant variables we’re trying to capture.
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You have likely seen the series highlighting both NFL and NCAA team’s identities from the lens a coach would (base) scout an opponent. This week we finish up with the NCAA Defense, which I greatly simplified per popular feedback. Again, I have every data point listed as a rank (as wordpress is very goofy with charts, and needed a quick depiction of relative magnitude).
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As we described the past couple weeks, notably in the NFL Offensive Identities we offered a basic breakdown of what a team REALLY does (from a coach’s perspective). Mind you the purpose of this piece is to give you a “totem” of sorts when setting your models, predictions, etc to properly understand what a team does and doesn’t do. PERSONNEL / Pass vs.
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*Updated from a series in Spring You can read more about this series in the 2021 NFL Offensive Identities. House cleaning: 1. All data ONLY considers moments in game where the difference in score is 16 points 2. Unless specified, does NOT include 4th downs or the 4th quarter 3.
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*Updated from a series in Spring “They want to establish the run”. “They are a team that lives and dies by the pass” “You know one thing when you play the _______, you are going to get blitzed” ^ These and many other “points” you probably hear from so-called experts on the TV/Radio/Podcast all the time, but have you ever asked: What does this team REALLY DO?
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Skip to content Knowing how NFL operate, particularly from the context a coach would do so preparing for an opponent is critical for long-term profits. You can read more about the purpose of this information, along with citations and legends to the abbreviations in the previous piece about 2021 NFL Defensive Identities.
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This marketing content will be shown in place of your protected content to anyone who is not allowed to read the post… Post navigation Never Miss a Post Again Enter your email address to subscribe to FPS and receive notifications of new posts by email. Join 242 other subscribers Email Address FPS on Facebook
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 37-25-2, Up 1558% It’s been two weeks since we got you your weekly “Best Bets”, but we’re excited to be back for this special edition, focusing on the second most popular Super Bowl prop bet: Who will win the MVP. Given the unique nature of this piece, we are going to approach this a bit different.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 37-23-1, Up 1758% 3-0 last week, looks even better when you consider the reasoning behind the plays hit as well as Josh Allen graded out at 92.3 when NOT blitzed, yet 68.6 when blitzed! Best Bet #1: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (buy the ½ point to -130) OVER Cincinnati BengalsAnyone that watched the Chiefs game last week (or really the last 3 years) knows how hard it is to beat QB Pat Mahomes in the playoffs.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 34-23-1, Up 1458% Strong week for us to kick off playoff betting, crushing the Derek Carr UNDER 35.5 yards longest completion prop (26 was his long) and the OVER 43 points for the Patriots/Bills game (64, almost winning by 50% more points). So we’re hoping to capitalize on that momentum in this week’s picks.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 32-23-1, Up 1258% Just like the T.S. Eliot poem, our regular season ended with a whimper, instead of a bang. We went 2-2, buoyed mainly by our Falcons WR prop bets. Nevertheless, we come in with a strong +13 unit (ish) resume, heading into one of our favorite betting periods of the year: the NFL playoffs.
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Both teams come into the last game of the regular NFL Season with no chance to win the division, but roughly a coin flip’s chance to clinch a wildcard spot with a victory. This is essentially a playoff game. Oddly, despite having the same record, and being in the same division, they come in with very different scenarios, with the Chargers NEEDING to win, while the Raiders are in if they win, but could still qualify with a loss if the Colts AND Steelers lose.
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The Seahawks come into this week the same way they have for the past few weeks: with no playoff opportunity to play for, nor a first round draft pick to tank for. The Cardinals on the other hand, have locked in their ticket to the playoffs, but their seeding is still up in the air. Based on Football Outsiders projections the Cardinals could end up in the 2nd, 3rd or 5th seed, based on the weekend’s outcomes.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 30-21-1, Up 1258% Here we are, the end of a profitable season. Yet all I can think of is: What a frustrating Week 17. We pushed on our Under/Over play, and missed our first bet by half of a point. Or as we are calling it, .6 points from a winning week. Anyway, we move on, focusing on finishing strong.
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These two heralded squads come into this game with playoff spots clinched, yet in very different situations as far as seeding goes. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East, and earned a guaranteed home playoff game. On the other hand the Cardinals with only a 11.8% chance of winning a division crown, are all but locked in to the 5 seed, with an 80.9% of landing there according to Football Outsiders Models.
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Both the Browns and the Steelers enter this week as long shots to make the playoffs, grasping at 13.5% (Browns) and 11% (Steelers) chances to make the postseason. And beyond both having equal motivation in this game, the Brown’s rest advantage (1 extra day) is likely negated by the strong home field advantage the Steelers have enjoyed (we noted this long term trend in a week 9 matchup vs. the Bears), buoyed by Brad Allen’s staff and his 20% MORE penalties called on road teams this season.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 29-17, Up 1458% After our 10th winning week, let’s get into this week’s selections. Best Bet #1: Washington Football Team +3.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles (-115)This selection is rooted in 2-3 key tactics that frankly have little to do with objective data. I know, very atypical of me, but it’s too strong to pass up. I will add that if you have the appetite, the Straight Up play at +155 is just as strong here, and technically has a better EV.
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Both teams are in the very unique position where they are officially OUT of the playoffs, yet have no incentive to lose/tank, as neither have their first round draft pick (The Bears traded theirs to the Giants, and the Seahawks traded theirs to the Jets). From a situational standpoint you can point at the Bears having a marginal rest advantage, given the Seahawks were forced to play on a Tuesday.
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Although both teams come into this matchup with identical 7-7 records, they are in very different playoff situations. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins have less than a 8% chance of making the playoffs, whereas the Saints have a 49% chance. Much of this disparity between the teams has to do with the Dolphins record being propped up by the 32nd ranked strength of schedule through 14 games.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 27-16, Up 1358% Another winning week, yet I have to say it still stung knowing we were .5 points away from a 3-0 week! Either way, let’s look at this week’s picks: Best Bet #1: Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-105)This play starts in one of our favorite places: Large disparity between betting slip volume and betting money wagered.
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Although they’re divisional rivals, and both coming off winning weeks, these two teams are in very different situations. The Rams have all but clinched the playoffs sitting at a 98% chance to make it into the postseason (based on Football Outsiders’ odds). While the Seahawks sit at 1.2% chance, meaning they are playing without much motivation.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Best Bets: 25-15, Up 1228% Another winning week, going 2-1 in Week 14. Despite all the line movement, covid issues and coach changes that typically lend to more uncertainty, we still have 3 picks we like this week. Let’s jump right into this week’s picks. Best Bet #1: Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills UNDER 44.5 (-105)We like this play because it “checks a lot of boxes”.This play starts with one of our favorite “checks”: Heavy Cash siding, inverse to the Market siding.
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Both teams come into this game virtually in the same spot: 3rd place in their division, with about a 25% chance of making the playoffs according to Football Outsiders. However, they’re coming off very different results from last week. The Broncos are off a win that was never in question vs. the Lions, whereas the Bengals are off a close loss to the 49ers.
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The Detroit Lions finally got off the schneid last week, with a roller coaster win over the Vikings. Yet still holding the worst record in the NFL, Football Outsiders projects the Lions have a 49.4% chance to get the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. As for Denver, their playoff hopes are still alive, but took a significant hit last week (dropping 11% points) and sit at 18%.
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The Packers come into this matchup off their BYE week, and have a strong rest advantage. Chicago is coming off a loss to the Cardinals that was actually worse than the final score depicted. Outside of the motivation of beating your rivals (which players really don’t care about in the NFL), this game means nothing for the Bears, who essentially are out of the playoffs. Whereas, the Packers are fighting for a better seed in the NFC Playoffs.
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Ryan’s Season Totals Assigned Games: 16-16-1 Best Bets: 23-14, Up 1098% Let’s jump right in. Best Bet #1: Los Angeles Rams +2.5 OVER Arizona CardinalsThis is our favorite play: a Myriad of reasons and models agreeing with each other.
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With a solid win over a strong Vikings team last week, the 49ers added 24% points to their playoff chances, sitting now at 83.8% according to the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds. The Seahawks, as predicted, didn’t have a lot of fight left vs Washington and now have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, essentially ending their season.
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