Key Risk: A sudden supply shock in the US (unexpected outages, refinery disruptions, or a sharp drop in production) tightens WTI faster than Hormuz risk can offset. Sell NYMEX WTI futures (or buy WTI puts). WTI is forecast at $80 (Q3) and $76 (Q4) on smoother shipping and a modest recovery in Iranian exports. If Brent softens on easing Hormuz risk, WTI should follow with even more downside as supply tightness fades and US production keeps adding barrels.