Simon Jackman
Sydney
As seen in:
MSN Australia,
MSN UK,
HuffPost,
The Guardian,
Yahoo News Australia,
ABC News (Australia),
Stuff.co.nz,
Sydney Morning Herald,
The Conversation,
The Age
and
Is this you? As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.
Claim your profile
Articles by Simon Jackman
Decoding a voter’s poor handwriting is subjective – let’s enlist AI to help with the Bradfield recount
Microsoft Cares About Your Privacy Microsoft and our third-party vendors use cookies to store and access information such as unique IDs to deliver, maintain and improve our services and ads. If you agree, MSN and Microsoft Bing will personalise the content and ads that you see. You can select ‘I Accept’ to consent to these uses or click on ‘Manage preferences’ to review your options and exercise your right to object to Legitimate Interest where used.
Decoding a voter’s poor handwriting is subjective – let’s enlist AI to help with the Bradfield recount
Independent candidate Nicolette Boele (left) defeated Liberal Gisele Kapterian (right) in the Sydney seat of Bradfield in the 2025 federal election. The NSW Liberals are launching a court challenge. Composite: AAP Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has appealed her narrow loss to Nicolette Boele in Bradfield to the court of disputed returns. According to Professor Anne Twomey, no questions of law are raised in Kapterian’s challenge.
Why did the Voice referendum fail? We crunched the data and found 6 reasons
Since Australia’s First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum in October 2023, diverse commentaries have sought to explain why it failed. But what does an analysis of media and polling data tell us about the outcome six months on? Our expert team analysed over 3 million social and mainstream media posts and stories, thousands of online political ads, and scores of public opinion polls to address common misconceptions about the outcome. We identified key factors that contributed to the defeat.
The 'yes' campaign is generating the most media and social media content. Yet, it continues to trail in the polls Original
With almost a third of votes cast already in postal and pre-poll voting for the Voice to Parliament referendum, the “yes” campaign is ramping up its advertising and media efforts. Both campaigns are in the home straight ahead of Saturday’s crucial ballot. Recent polls indicate that in the closing weeks of the campaign, support for the “no” campaign has slowed somewhat, but “yes” still sits at around 42% nationally.
How might the First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum affect Australia's international reputation?
In late September, American rap legend MC Hammer made a spectacular intervention into Australia’s upcoming referendum to establish a Voice to Parliament for First Nations people. In a tweet, he urged Australians to “repair the breach”. Hammer’s tweet garnered some 1.1 million views, 1,300 retweets and 5,700 likes. It also triggered a wave of online criticisms from “no” supporters. Some accused him of being a “one-hit wonder” with no place in the debate.
We’re in the middle of an intense advertising blitz around The Voice. One side is clearly winning. Why?
This video can’t be displayed right now, sorry
We’re in the middle of an intense advertising blitz around The Voice. One side is clearly winning. Why?
If “yes” were to prevail on October 14, it would take a colossal reversal in public sentiment, or it would indicate there’s been a stupendously large, collective polling error. Or perhaps both. What’s happening in the news and social media? Using Meltwater data, we have seen a massive spike in Voice media coverage since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the referendum date at the end of August.
The 'yes' Voice campaign is far outspending 'no' in online advertising, but is the message getting through?
Andrea Carson receives funding from a La Trobe University Synergy grant for this project and from the ARC for a Discovery project on media and political trust. Max Grömping receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP220100050; DP230101777). He is an affiliate of the International Panel on the Information Environment (IPIE), and member of the Electoral Integrity Project‘s International Advisory Board.
The 'yes' Voice campaign is far outspending 'no' in online advertising, but is the message getting through?
With early voting set to open next week for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, this is a critical time for campaigners to win over voters. If the 2022 federal election is anything to go by, Australians have developed a taste for early voting, with fewer than half of all voters actually going to a polling station on election day.
The 'no' campaign is dominating the messaging on the Voice referendum on TikTok – here's why Original
In the first week after the prime minister revealed October 14 as the Voice to Parliament referendum date, the “yes” and “no” campaigns recast their messages, resulting in unprecedented news coverage and public engagement with the debate. Using data from Meltwater, a global media monitoring company, we are looking at the messaging and media coverage of the two campaigns.
「原住民之聲」公投：「Yes」和「No」目前形勢如何？
這是公投結果的關鍵時刻。隨著雙方開始進入由投票日起倒數的六星期內，「原住民之聲」的贊成「Yes」和反對「No」，兩大陣營宣傳活動即將變得更加激烈。 一組政治科學家合作，在網上學術媒體The Conversation，每兩周提供有關贊成及反對兩大陣營活動各種指標的最新情況，直至投票日。 這包括新聞報道、社交媒體、網上廣告和民意調查最受公眾關注的關鍵訊息。 贊成陣營如果要獲勝，需要獲得大多數州的多數選民支持。目前，我們收集全國民意調查的數據並估計，贊成票約為 46 ％，反對票約為 54 ％（誤差幅度為 2.9%）。 各州所做的民意調查太少，無法應用相同的分析，但早期的個別民意調查，例如YouGov顯示，維州和新州比其他州更支持「原住民之聲」。 根據全球媒體監測公司 Meltwater 有關主流媒體（報章、廣播和電視）和社交媒體數據，涉及關鍵詞的分析顯示，自 2023 年 1 月 1 日以來，公投辯論平均每天在所有媒體上約有 5,500 次被提及。 在本星期，平均被提及 7,184 次，這表明自今年年初以來，公眾對這場辯論的關注度正在緩慢上升。...
Voice referendum: Which camp is winning on social media, advertising and in the polls?
This is a critical moment in the referendum’s outcome. The Yes and No campaigns for a Voice to Parliament are about to be supercharged as both sides begin a six-week countdown to voting day. To give you an idea of what that might look like, a team of political scientists has come together at The Conversation to provide fortnightly updates on various indicators of the state of the two campaigns until polling day.
is the 'yes' or 'no' camp winning on social media, advertising spend and in the polls? Original
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the Voice to Parliament referendum will take place on Saturday October 14. This is a critical moment in the referendum’s outcome. The “yes” and “no” campaigns for a Voice to Parliament are about to be supercharged as both sides begin a six-week countdown to voting day.
The 2022 Australian federal election: results from the Australian Election Study
Description This report presents findings from the 2022 Australian Election Study (AES). The AES surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,508 voters after the 2022 Australian federal election to find out what shaped their choices in the election. The AES has fielded representative surveys after every federal election since 1987, which allows these results to be placed in a long-term context.
Millennials and Gen Z have deserted the Coalition – this could be dire for the opposition
The 2022 Australian Election Study adds a dramatic exclamation point to this longstanding truism of Australian politics. 2022 was a shocker for the Coalition, its vote share falling in almost every age group. But the Coalition’s standing among younger Australians has fallen to historic lows. Only about one in four people under the age of 40 reported voting for the Coalition in 2022.
Below the Line: How might our new, more diverse parliament change Australia and the Asia-Pacific? - podcast
Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.
Below the Line: Has Australia's political landscape changed forever? – podcast
Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”. 2022 was that breakthrough election.
Below the Line: A Facebook executive explains the last-minute election battle on social media - podcast
What do One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Labor’s Tanya Plibersek have in common? They are both winning the battle for eyeballs on social media, says a top Facebook official. In the final episode before polling day of our election podcast Below the Line, our regular panel talks to Mia Garlick, Facebook’s Director of Policy in Australia and New Zealand, about the ways politicians use the social media platform in election campaigns.
Below the Line: What might happen to the major party that loses the election? - podcast
An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government. Led by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, the panel talks through the potential configurations of the next federal parliament, including the possible balance of power in both chambers.
Below the Line: What issues are politicians ignoring this election? - podcast
Channel Nine’s leaders’ debate on Sunday night may have been a “shouty, unedifying spectacle”, but Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese will do it all again on Wednesday evening on Channel Seven. Why? In the latest episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our panel of experts explain that our political leaders are under pressure to persuade voters as quickly as possible, given early voting centres have now opened and Australians can cast their ballots.
Below the Line: How much are the parties spending on ads? And how come One Nation's Townsville candidate lives in Melbourne? – podcast
On Monday May 9, early voting centres will open and Australians can start casting their votes for the federal election. Increasing numbers of Australians are choosing not to line up for their democracy sausage on election day, opting instead to get it out of the way beforehand. So the next few days are crucial for parties’ and candidates’ campaigns – can they convince enough persuadable voters before they cast their ballots?
Below the Line: Will different cultural groups favour one side of politics this federal election? - podcast
Is there any such thing as the so-called “ethnic vote” in a country as multicultural as Australia? Do different cultural groups favour one side of politics over another? For instance, in Victoria’s most marginal seat of Chisholm, will the Hong Kong-born Liberal MP Gladys Liu be advantaged by the Chinese diaspora living in her electorate?
Below the Line: former independent Cathy McGowan hits back at John Howard’s ‘anti-Liberal groupies’ jibe - podcast
Former independent federal MP Cathy McGowan has hit back at John Howard’s description of independent candidates as “anti-Liberal groupies”. In this Below the Line exclusive, McGowan says the former Prime Minister’s use of the term was clearly meant to be derogatory. “I suspect someone has given it to him,” she said. “It doesn’t bring to mind the calibre of the people who are standing.
Below the Line: Albanese has COVID, but Morrison is 'blessed' with an even bigger problem – podcast
When tennis superstar Dylan Alcott’s post rebuking the Prime Minister for his clumsy “blessed” comment is outperforming election news stories on social media, you know the leaders’ debate didn’t go as hoped for the Coalition. Scott Morrison effectively lost a day of campaigning on Thursday, which he largely spent apologising to disability groups and families who were offended when he said he was “blessed” to have children without disability during Wednesday night’s leaders’ debate.
Below the Line: Will anyone watch the Morrison vs Albanese debate? And will a transphobia debate divide the Liberals? - podcast
Remember those classic lines that have come out of election debates? Recall 2013 when Tony Abbott asked the audience, “Does this guy [Kevin Rudd] ever shut up?” Or Bill Shorten in 2019 describing Scott Morrison as a “classic space invader?” Or back in 1993 when Paul Keating told John Hewson his costing of the proposed GST was like “a magic pudding?” In our fourth episode of the Below the Line podcast, host Jon Faine asks if election debates still matter.
Below the Line: Does George Christensen's defection spell a win for One Nation? And are Australian parties 'lazy'? – podcast
George Christensen, the maverick Liberal-National Party member from far north Queensland, dropped the pre-Easter bombshell that he is no longer heading for retirement but joining One Nation. Today, the Below the Line podcast team unpack what this means for the major parties’ prospects in that seat and for the election result.
Below the Line: what role will gender play in the federal election campaign? - podcast
When will Prime Minister Scott Morrison call the election? And could this be the long-awaited campaign when women take the driver’s seat? In the second episode of our new election podcast, Below the Line, our expert panel delve into the High Court’s involvement in the election’s timing and its likely impact on the Coalition vote. After we finished recording, the High Court confirmed the dismissal of the New South Wales Liberals’ challenge to Morrison’s hand-picked candidates.
introducing The Conversation's new election podcast, hosted by Jon Faine
SARAH RHODES/AAP We don’t yet know the election date, but the campaign has already begun. The Conversation Australia, CC BY-NC55.7 MB (download) From the polls to party spin to election promises, Below the Line is a limited-edition podcast unpacking party lines and policies during the 2022 Australian federal election campaign. Hosting the conversation is award-winning broadcaster and former ABC Melbourne mornings presenter, Jon Faine, now a Vice Chancellor’s Fellow at the University of Melbourne.
Politically Invisible in America | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge Core
Abstract Campaigns, parties, interest groups, pollsters, and political scientists rely on voter-registration lists and consumer files to identify people as targets for registration drives, persuasion, and mobilization and to be included in sampling frames for surveys. We introduce a new category of Americans: the politically invisible—that is, people who are unreachable using these voter and marketing lists.
Trump told his supporters: 'Our journey is just beginning'. The urgent question is, where will it end?
During the final presidential debate, Donald Trump told white supremacists and the notorious Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by". This week they stood up and embarrassed the United States before the eyes of the world. The images of MAGA rioters occupying the House of Representatives, ransacking Nancy Pelosi's office and flying Trump flags over a Capitol Building with inauguration bleachers at the ready and full of rioters, will endure.
Donald Trump wants the Supreme Court over the US election count - but he's a long way away from that
Long after midnight in the United States, President Trump declared he would ask the Supreme Court to intervene in the 2020 election. As far as he was concerned, he said, he had already won: "So we'll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop". Trump's remarks are not only absurd, but anti-democratic. Voting has stopped. It's the counting of votes Trump presumably wants to stop.
The U.S. presidential election might be closer than the polls suggest (if we can trust them this time)
In this combination photo, president Donald Trump, left, speaks at a news conference on Aug. 11, 2020, in Washington and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del. on Aug. 13, 2020. (AP Photo) With less than two months until the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads incumbent Donald Trump in the bulk of opinion polls. But poll-based election forecasts have proved problematic before.
Commentary: US presidential election will be closer than polls suggest
SYDNEY: With less than two months until the US presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads incumbent Donald Trump in the bulk of opinion polls. But poll-based election forecasts have proved problematic before. The polls were widely maligned after the 2016 election because Trump won the election when the majority of the polling said he would not. Advertisement Advertisement What went wrong with the polls in 2016?
Here’s why the US presidential election will probably be much closer than the polls suggest
With less than two months until the US presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads incumbent Donald Trump in the bulk of opinion polls. But poll-based election forecasts have proved problematic before. The polls were widely maligned after the 2016 election because Trump won the election when the majority of the polling said he would not. What went wrong with the polls in 2016?
The US presidential election might be closer than the polls suggest
With less than two months until the US presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads incumbent Donald Trump in the bulk of opinion polls. But poll-based election forecasts have proved problematic before. The polls were widely maligned after the 2016 election because Trump won the election when the majority of the polling said he would not. What went wrong with the polls in 2016?
Polls say Biden will beat Trump in the US election, but can we trust them this time?
With less than two months until the US presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads incumbent Donald Trump in the bulk of opinion polls. But poll-based election forecasts have proved problematic before. The polls were widely maligned after the 2016 election because Trump won the election when the majority of the polling said he would not. What went wrong with the polls in 2016?
Alien Abduction and Voter Impersonation in the 2012 U.S. General Election: Evidence from a Survey List Experiment
Abstract State legislatures around the United States have entertained—and passed—laws requiring voters to present various forms of state-issued identification in order to cast ballots. Proponents argue that such laws protect the integrity of the electoral process, sometimes claiming that fraudulent voting is widespread.
Impeachment is not a case of survival for Donald Trump. In fact, it may actually work in his favour
By Simon Jackman Posted December 18, 2019 12:54:38 US President Donald Trump's impeachment will pose no significant threat to his presidency. Despite never being impeached, Richard Nixon nonetheless remains the sole example of an American president being forced from office by impeachment proceedings, a distinction that will likely remain uniquely Nixon's after any impeachment or trial of President Donald J Trump. This says much about the current state of American politics and society.
Australian leaders have the political capital to take a look at our relationship with China
By Simon Jackman and Elliott Brennan Posted October 03, 2019 05:00:24 In light of a slew of stories about phone calls and presidential favours, Prime Minister Scott Morrison's sheening new Trump moniker — "man of titanium" — has led some quarters to task him to prove he is not a US "lapdog". These issues of motivations and optics, and the partisanship that accompanies them, have surged into Australia's debate about the relationship with its biggest trading partner, China.
We asked voters about the 'S' word and even if they support it, they don't all know what it is
Simon Jackman and Shaun Ratcliff Posted April 11, 2019 06:00:01 Red is the new black, right? Jeremy Corbyn leads the British Labour Party. Bernie Sanders came close to winning the Democratic Party's nomination for the US presidency describing himself as a "democratic socialist". And the 2018 US midterm elections saw a surge of enthusiasm for Democratic candidates running on policy platforms at least as leftist as Mr Sanders espoused in 2016.
Midterm election result far from certain as gerrymandering could lead to a Republican win
Virtually every politically relevant indicator points to the Democrats winning a majority of seats in the US House of Representatives at next week's midterm elections. Public opinion polls have long suggested an 8-to-9-point lead for a generic Democratic House candidate over a Republican candidate. President Trump's approval ratings, in the low 40s, are historically associated with about a 40-seat loss for Republicans, more than enough for Democrats to win a majority.
Personal Votes: the 2016 Australian Federal Election
brought to you by RStudio Hide Comments (–) Share Hide Toolbars
With John McCain's passing, a powerful voice for American global leadership has been silenced
Much turns in American politics with John McCain's passing. A US Senator since 1986, Senator McCain was the most senior and most trenchant Republican critic of President Donald Trump. He was his party's Presidential nominee in 2008, a naval veteran and war hero who chaired the Senate Armed Services Committee, one of the most powerful positions in the American Congress.
Donald Trump's presidency has exposed fault lines in our opinion of America
There were significant threats to the security of Australia and the United States before Donald Trump was elected US president. North Korea's nuclear ambitions are decades old, and China's militarisation of the South China Sea began several years ago. Russia's encroachments in Ukraine, the Syrian conflict and ISIS all predate Trump.
Race to the White House
This week on Race to the White House, Brendon O’Connor, Tom Switzer and Emma Lancaster are joined by Simon Jackman to track the history of public opinion polls and how they have come to shape the American political landscape. Polls have been labelled the “pulse of democracy”. But is measuring public opinion good for democracy or destroying it? Our experts also strategise about what red and blue states should be keeping the Clinton campaign up late at night.
The Predictive Power of Uniform Swing
Citation is provided in standard text and BibTeX formats below. Highlight all BibTeX Format @article{PSC:9235657,author = {Jackman,Simon},title = {The Predictive Power of Uniform Swing},journal = {PS: Political Science & Politics},volume = {47},issue = {02},month = {4},month = {4},year = {2014},issn = {1537-5935},pages = {317--321},numpages = {5},doi = {10.1017/S1049096514000109},URL = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article_S1049096514000109},} Click here for full citation export options.
Unlisted - Additional Descriptive Statistics
This document is a companion to Simon Jackman and Bradley Spahn’s working paper “Unlisted in America.” It provides additional information about respondents to the 2012 ANES, broken out by the citizenship categories discused in the paper. Some of the tables and graphs below do not represent statistically significant differences between the respondent categories (voter, registered, etc.).
Show More
loading
Actions
Is this you?
As a journalist, you can create a free Muck Rack account to customize your profile, list your contact preferences, and upload a portfolio of your best work.Get in touch with Simon
Contact Simon, search articles and posts on X, monitor coverage, and track replies from one place.
Learn more about Muck Rack