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Articles by Simon Natale
Met wraps up partygate inquiry - enter Sue Gray
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. The Partygate scandal melodrama has entered its final innings, with the Metropolitan Police announcing it has wound up its criminal investigation, having dished out over a hundred fines.
PMQs: Johnson waffles on windfall tax
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. Boris Johnson has refused to give into Labour’s proposal for a windfall tax on energy firms, as the PM jumped on the culture war bandwagon to attack Sir Keir Starmer during Prime Minister’s Questions.
The West has gone AWOL
The West is currently suffering from collective geopolitical hyperfocus. It has become unable to concentrate on more than one issue at a time. This international malaise puts the established world order under threat, preventing the West from acting as the front-line defender of liberal values, national self-determination, and the rule of law. One need only look at several notable and recent examples of the West’s dereliction of duty in Sri Lanka, Ethiopia, the Caucasus, and Bolivia.
Can Turkey hold NATO to ransom?
New details of our past are coming to light, hiding in the nooks and crannies of the world, as we refine our techniques to go looking for them.
Enough dithering - the Northern Ireland Protocol must be abolished
Here we go again, round and round the mulberry bush of Brexit negotiations – in May, 2022, more than two years after Britain’s departure from the European Union. If that seems startling, it is also safe to predict that, after another two years – conceivably even after 20 years – we shall be embarking on yet another round of negotiations to fine-tune the previous “fix” designed to make the Northern Ireland Protocol bearable.
Cakeism and sabre-rattling: Johnson and Truss tag-team on the NI Protocol
Are we any further forward on the Northern Ireland Protocol following Boris Johnson’s visit this week to “Royal” Hillsborough? Probably not, is the answer. All we know is that, in Johnson’s absence, Liz Truss has talked up legislation – we know not what it is, only that it shall be the terror of the EU – that would remove from the Protocol all the provisions Unionists don’t like, leaving it as pale and lifeless as a private members bill on the last afternoon before the summer recess.
MP arrest: Tory politician detained by Scotland Yard on sex charges
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. Westminster is buzzing with rumours over the identity of a Conservative MP who has been arrested on suspicion of sexual offences in the latest shocking development in the Pestminster scandal.
North Korea: army enlisted to help deal with over a million Covid cases
North Korea has mobilised its military to distribute Covid-19 medications and has deployed over 10,000 health workers to trace potential patients, the state media KCNA revealed today. More than a million people are estimated to have Covid-19, or what Pyongyang is labelling a “fever”. It’s feared that 56 people have died, but it is unclear how many of those suspected cases have tested positive due to North Korea’s limited testing capacity.
Cost-of-living misery is cutting through society like a knife through butter
A political obsessive who spends far too much time scrolling through Twitter can easily lose sight of what topics cut through with the public. Most people don’t have the time or headspace to care about issues that are making no meaningful impact on them. They have lives to live, after all. The cost-of-living crisis is different. It’s an issue pertinent to everyone except the wealthy.
France's new prime minister is a Macron true-believer
President Macron took his time but has now done exactly what was predicted. By appointing 61-year-old Elisabeth Borne to the post of prime minister, he has not only struck a modest blow for the status of women in French politics, but assured himself of the services of a true believer, capable of pushing through his tough and controversial legislative programme.
Northern Ireland Protocol: Liz Truss outlines plan to change post-Brexit trade
In an address to the House of Commons, the Foreign Secretary called for a “negotiated outcome” with the European Commission’s Vice President Maroš Šefčovič, but said that both parties “cannot afford to delay any further”. She told MPs that legislation will be tabled in the “coming weeks” to make changes to the current trading arrangement between Britain and the EU that is “free of unnecessary bureaucracy”, whilst also respecting the Good Friday Agreement.
Protocol is a disaster for Northern Irish farmers - and cow festivals
In July, livestock farmers from across the UK will begin gathering in Carlisle, Cumbria, along with their cattle, to celebrate the (delayed) 50th anniversary of the British Limousin Cattle Society, and 50 years since the Limousin breed first arrived in the UK from France in 1971.
In the new Europe of Russia’s making, there’s no room for neutrality
Military neutrality works when potential adversaries respect it. After the invasion of Ukraine, two of the most serious and respected neutral states in the world have decided that Russia may no longer respect their neutrality. Neither Sweden nor Finland has ever used rose-tinted spectacles when looking at Russia and both countries have long had credible defensive military forces as deterrents to Russian adventurism. But the war in Ukraine is a tipping point for Stockholm and Helsinki.
Scholz's dream of a Social Democrat decade is already petering out
Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is reeling from a disappointing set of election results in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia on Sunday in which voting for his Social Democrat Party fell below 30 per cent. This was the first time since the end of the First World War that the SDP has done so badly, losing nearly 5 per cent to come in with a 26.7 per cent share of the vote for the state which it ran continuously from 1966 to 2005.
Rachel Maclean, the working poor and a typical Twitter firestorm based on modern media misrepresentation
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. Have you heard the one about the heartless Tory minister ordering the poor to get a better job or work longer hours? There was an outpouring of outrage on social media following Rachel Maclean’s interview on Sky News Breakfast this morning.
NATO: here are the latest updates on Finland and Sweden's decision to join
Russia claims Finland and Sweden’s application for NATO membership is a “grave mistake.” Jens Stoltenberg, director-general of NATO, announced yesterday that the security bloc would fast-track the membership of Sweden and Finland. In applying for membership, Finland and Sweden are reversing their traditional and longstanding policies of military non-alignment to expand the alliance’s maritime and aerial surveillance coverage of the region.
Germany: an export powerhouse in trouble
A personal view from Ian Stewart, Deloitte’s Chief Economist in the UK. Energy costs, supply disruptions and the war in Ukraine are weighing on global growth. Among major industrial nations, Germany has been the hardest hit. Its manufacturing and export-focussed economy has generated ever-larger trade surpluses for each of the last 20 years. Now, this model is being tested by spiralling commodity prices and slowing global demand.
Abortion: only a third way on Roe v Wade will prevent violence in America
It may sound like a distant glimpse of the obvious, but we cannot understand current events in the US without recognising that abortion is a complex question and that America is a deeply divided society. The latter point helps to explain one problem with the abortion debate: the refusal of partisans on either side to acknowledge that the other lot have cogent views, sincerely held.
Why can't the Bank of England predict inflation?
In February 2021 the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report predicted an inflation peak of 2.1%. In May 2021 the forecast peak was raised to 2.3%. In August 2021, acknowledging that inflation was already 2.5% and above the previously forecast peak, the new forecast peak was raised to 4.0%. In November 2021, noting that inflation in August had already reached 3.2%, the Bank raised its forecast of peak inflation to 4.3%.
The EU has got itself into a terrible mess on Northern Ireland and should compromise
In November 1985 Margaret Thatcher signed the Anglo-Irish Agreement. Today, this development is usually presented as a natural part of a continuum leading logically to greater cross border cooperation and then to the IRA cease-fire and the subsequent Good Friday deal introducing power-sharing. At the time the treaty signed between the UK and Irish governments was viewed quite differently. It was a thunderbolt. Unionists, the DUP in particular, were furious.
What to Watch This Week
Welcome to our weekly What To Watch television and streaming guide. This week features Red Pitch, Conversations with Friends, Elon Musk: Superhero or Villain?, Death of England and more. Red Pitch Bush Theatre online, Saturday 14 May at 7:45 pm Set in Red Pitch, South London, three lifelong friends, Omz, Bilal, and Joey, are playing football, like they always have. But beyond their football pitch, local shops are closing, and old flats are being demolished as new flats shoot up.
Manon Lescaut review - Puccini up close and personal
To watch opera in Monte Carlo is to enter a different world. Two nights before Puccini’s Manon Lescaut by the Med, Paris’ Opéra Bastille had hosted an audience of 2,700 for Massenet’s Cendrillon. One week later, New York’s Met was to pack in 3,700 for a stunning Turandot. Opera on a scale we have grown to expect. Now, I was in Prince Albert’s Salle Garnier, seating 524. This would be opera close-up and personal. Back to Baroque court theatre intimacy. A totally different experience.
Greg Norman and the dirty age of sportswashing
Greg Norman had a great sporting career. Anyone making a list of the best Australian golfers might conclude that only Peter Thomson, who won The Open five times but never triumphed in America, rivals him for the top place. Now aged sixty-seven, he is making a sad spectacle of himself. As the organizer, or at least figurehead, of the Saudi breakaway tour, he is clearly a man out of his depth or, to put it mildly, a bloody fool.
Sanctions are about as disciplinarian as the naughty step
Now that physical punishment has been banned, options for disciplining children are limited to shaming on the naughty step, loud denunciation or denial of privileges — no treats for the youngsters and grounding for teenagers. So it is in international relations. NATO nations are reluctant to be drawn militarily into a conflict in Ukraine, so in spite of the existential stakes for that European nation, the Russian aggressor faces from us merely denunciation and punishment by sanctions.
Books Digest - On Agoraphobia, Commando and Fix the System
Welcome to our weekly Books Digest where we round-up the new books you should, and shouldn’t, be reading. This week features On Agoraphobia by Graham Caveney, Commando: The Inside Story of Britain’s Royal Marines by Monty Halls and Fix the System, Not the Women by Laura Bates For more books take a look through our Books Digest Archive.
Stop and Look - The Month of May by the Limbourg brothers
A Book of Hours was a common possession among the very well-to-do in the late Middle Ages. The “Hours” in question were those of the offices of the Church: a book such as this was a kind of devotional almanac giving the texts of the services, and sometimes, as in this case, informing the owner of the events, social and agricultural, of the different seasons, and the progress of the constellations with the signs of the Zodiac.
Benjamin Appl - Favourite Things
Benjamin Appl is a multi-award winning German baritone renowned for his international concert performances and song recitals. He has performed at Carnegie Hall, Wigmore Hall, Concertgebouw Amsterdam and other top performance venues over the last few years and recently appeared on the BBC in a televised film of Schubert’s A Winter Journey which was filmed in the Swiss Alps. The film is available to stream on BBC iPlayer now. These are a few of Benjamin Appl’s favourite things…
French Letter: Partygate in sun-kissed Locarn
My wife and I were invited to an impromptu drinks party this week. No lockdown rules were broken because there aren’t any and, needless to say, we all went back to work immediately afterwards, or at any rate, home to have dinner and watch television. It was a hot day — we haven’t had rain for weeks — and the talk was of a desultory kind. When would the pub re-open after the owner put up the shutters the day his wife tested positive for Covid?
Britain has a key role to play in the defence of Europe
The Defence of Europe conference, co-hosted by Reaction and King’s College London on 9 May, attracted an attendance of eminent geopolitical thinkers and defence strategists, resulting in many useful insights into the requirements for European and wider-world security, and the best strategies for creating a reliable defence structure.
Northern Ireland Protocol: how did we get here, and what happens next?
There is probably no one, Lord Frost and Liz Truss included, who truly understands the Northern Ireland Protocol, agreed – if that is the word – between the UK and the EU as the only way to get the post-Brexit withdrawal treaty over the finishing line.
Eurovision 2022: could Britain pip Ukraine?
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. On Saturday night, Italy will host the carnival of camp that is the Eurovision Song Contest – and it’s set to be one of the most politically-charged events of the year.
Andrew Bailey's job is to tame inflation
Of all the places that beleaguered Andrew Bailey can have expected to receive a poke with a sharp stick, the church in New Romney, Kent, cannot have been high on his list. However, the source of the wound, Mervyn King, would have been less of a surprise. Lord King is hardly the only one unhappy with the direction the Bank of England has been travelling recently, but as a renowned former governor, he is by far the most authoritative.
Watch: Iain Martin and Dr Brian Klaas on Corruptible
Does power corrupt, or are corrupt people drawn to power? Are entrepreneurs who embezzle and cops who kill the outgrowths of bad systems or are they just bad people? Are tyrants made or born? If you were thrust into a position of power, would new temptations to line your pockets or torture your enemies gnaw away at you until you gave in?
Taxing the oil giants is a rotten idea
In September 2020, at the height of the pandemic, the Zoom video conferencing group had a bigger market value than Exxon, one of the world’s giant oil and gas companies. Today, Exxon is back in favour and valued at $358bn on the New York Stock Exchange, making it worth some 13 times the value of Zoom.
Ukraine has united the West - but many nations are still hedging their bets
“Don’t you know there’s a war on?” A question, in relation to the Ukraine crisis, which could have been put to many countries recently. The response from some has been: “And?” But for others it has been a shocking moment requiring a reassessment of the future. I argued recently that India’s fence-sitting was quite understandable.
Creases increase as ironing board shortage bites
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, Maggie Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE. Rejoice! No longer do we need to come up with wild excuses for our un-ironed clothes – a national shortage of ironing boards will save us the effort. For weeks, Homebase has reported a shortage of boards across multiple stores.
Recession on the horizon as UK growth slumps
New details of our past are coming to light, hiding in the nooks and crannies of the world, as we refine our techniques to go looking for them.
Rishi Sunak must respond to growing risk of recession
The UK economy ground to a halt in March under the weight of the cost of living crisis. The quarterly growth rate of 0.8 per cent over the first three months was better than the rest of Europe, but was flattered by the earlier lifting of Covid restrictions and the way in which the Ofgem energy cap protected UK households. Everything now points to a much tougher second quarter. This is bound to encourage fears that the economy is heading into recession and strengthen calls for an emergency Budget.
Why has Sri Lanka descended into chaos?
At least eight people have died and 200 have been wounded in Sri Lanka after security forces and anti-government protesters clashed amid the country’s worst economic downturn since independence in 1948. The country’s Prime Minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has resigned, with his younger brother, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, trying to find a way out of the chaos. But how did one of the wealthiest nations in South Asia reach this devastating situation? Here’s what you need to know.
Why Wes Streeting should be Labour’s next leader
A shambolic, scandal-ridden Conservative government is presiding over a cost-of-living crisis and things are set to get worse. The economic outlook is bleak, and the government seems devoid of ideas. The time is ripe for Labour to sweep it aside and take power for the first time since 2010.
Is AI-generated art really creative? It depends on the presentation
Ai-Da sits behind a desk, paintbrush in hand. She looks up at the person posing for her, and then back down as she dabs another blob of paint onto the canvas. A lifelike portrait is taking shape. If you didn’t know a robot produced it, this portrait could pass as the work of a human artist. Ai-Da is touted as the “first robot to paint like an artist”, and an exhibition of her work called Leaping into the Metaverse opened at the Venice Biennale.
Watch: The Defence of Europe conference
You’re reading Reaction. To get Iain Martin’s weekly newsletter, columnists including Tim Marshall, A single-day conference on 9 May 2022, which will be co-hosted by the School of Security Studies at King’s College London and Reaction Pagano and Adam Boulton, full access to the site and invitations to member-exclusive events, become a member HERE.
Stop and Look - Cecil Gordon Lawson: The Hop Gardens of England
Cecil Gordon Lawson is a little-known painter who belonged to a little-known Victorian group – the Idyllists. His only slightly more famous colleagues were Fred Walker, George Heming Mason, Matthew Ridley Corbett, George Pinwell and John William North.
Pop and pyrotechnics: Why lockdown is the ideal time to discover Eurovision
After two months of lockdown, I finally understand how the sports fans feel. Because tonight, the highlight of my entertainment calendar, the event around which my friends and I plan our spring social schedule, the night of intense competition and the battle of physical and mental strength that I have spent 364 days gearing up for, has become the latest victim of coronavirus. I am talking, of course, of the Eurovision Song Contest.
So, what next?
Now Britain has chosen to leave the EU, the next big question we need to address is: what shall we seek to do instead? There are three basic options for us. – We could seek new geopolitical partners outside Europe. – We could seek to create a new European group. – We could seek to operate by ourselves without any geopolitical partners to replace the EU ones. Each of these three options has strong attractions. The first makes us most powerful. The third makes us richest.
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