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Articles by Stephen Bartos
Are Australians really overtaxed? It depends what you think government should do
When the federal government released its final budget figures for 2025–26 this week, it prompted a flurry of front-page articles in the conservative press arguing for lower taxes. The budget figures showed tax revenue in 2025–26 was equivalent to 24.1% of the economy, above the May budget forecast of 23.6%. Whether we pay too much tax is in essence a judgement about what we think government should do. Our taxes pay for government services Taxes pay for government services.
Intergenerational Report: Three implications for the public sector
The Charter of Budget Honesty requires the treasurer to publish an intergenerational report (IGR) every five years to “assess the long-term sustainability of current government policies over the 40 years following the release of the report”. The first IGR was published in 2002; the latest is the seventh in the series. See here for Melissa Coade’s great summary of the report and Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ accompanying speech.
Australia in the 2060s: an optimistic outlook dominates budget forecasts in the Intergenerational Report Original
This year’s Intergenerational Report (IGR) highlights AI, population ageing and geopolitical fragmentation. It is a tribute to optimistic forecasts. Things will turn out for the best if artificial intelligence (AI) improves productivity, promised budget savings are actually achieved, global turmoil creates new opportunities and global warming is limited. But it is a more political IGR than many have been since they first began in 2002.
Australia’s economy grows by 2.1%, but people’s living standards aren’t keeping pace Original
Australia’s economy expanded by 0.4% in the June quarter, with spending growth driven by record sales of imported electric vehicles. For the year to June, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.1%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, slightly stronger than market expectations. The bureau noted overall growth remained subdued, with spending growth and business investment only in “pockets” of the economy.
Why the budget is a human hamster wheel for public servants
Now the budget has come and gone, spare a thought for the people who worked extraordinarily hard to bring it all together. That was mostly public servants. Yes, ministers — especially the treasurer, finance minister, and members of the expenditure review committee — put in long hours and work hard on the budget. They consider hundreds of different policy options for new spending, savings, or taxes. They weigh up detailed evidence to help them decide which option is best for the country.
A budget with a bundle of reforms in a time of ‘extreme uncertainty’
This year’s budget combines fiscal policy – taxes and spending – with a heavy focus on better regulation. The budget deficit has fallen slightly from the mid-year update in December, to A$31.5 billion, but the budget remains firmly in deficit for the foreseeable future. Tax reform There are important reforms to capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts. While the reforms are significant, the timing is cautious.
Microsoft Cares About Your Privacy A budget with a bundle of reforms in a time of 'extreme uncertainty'
Stephen Bartos, University of Canberra This year's budget combines fiscal policy – taxes and spending – with a heavy focus on better regulation. The budget deficit has fallen slightly from the mid-year update in December, to A$31.5 billion, but the budget remains firmly in deficit for the foreseeable future. TAX REFORM There are important reforms to capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts. While the reforms are significant, the timing is cautious.
Budget 2026: An overview of public service numbers
Federal Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, in her budget lockup press conference, said that the government thought the Australian Public Service was “about the right size”. That claim is borne out by the budget numbers. APS total average staffing levels grew by a mere 1,315 between 2025-26 and the budget year, 2026-27 (from 215,941 to 217,256). Defence saw growth in staffing, paralleling the large increase in the national Defence budget announced previously.
In this year’s budget, Chalmers has to keep a lid on spending – or risk stoking inflation Original
Crafting a federal budget is never easy. Tonight’s budget is harder than most. The government faces irreconcilable pressures: spend more to meet community demands, spend less to keep inflation down. The Reserve Bank is concerned about inflation. Governor Michele Bullock has signalled a preparedness to drive Australia into recession rather than let inflation get out of control. Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his advisers are well aware that increased government spending will push up inflation.
In this year’s budget, Chalmers has to keep a lid on spending – or risk stoking inflation
© 2026 Tolerance.ca ® Inc. All reproduction rights reserved. All information reproduced on the Web pages of www.tolerance.ca (including articles, images, photographs, and logos) is protected by intellectual property rights owned by Tolerance.ca ® Inc. or, in certain cases, by its author. Any reproduction of the information for use other than personal use is prohibited.
Events upend plans as fuel crisis forces Albanese government off script
When former British prime minister Harold McMillan was asked what could throw a government off course, he allegedly replied: “Events, dear boy, events”. The quote is likely apocryphal. Sources give conflicting accounts of when he said it to whom, if he even said it at all. Despite this, it’s frequently requoted because it captures a basic feature of government. No matter how well a government plans, events happen. We’re seeing that in the Australian national government today.
Robodebt’s sealed report revealed no prosecutions, so much for reckoning
The sealed section of the robodebt royal commission report has finally been released. It comes two-and-a-half years after the royal commission handed down its report, and almost six years after the cruel and illegal robodebt scheme was discontinued. As a reminder, robodebt began in 2016. It used automated data-matching to generate debt notices for social security recipients for alleged overpayments. Many of the calculations were wrong.
Australian economy picks up speed, but managing inflation and rates is getting harder
Australia’s economy grew at its fastest annual rate in almost three years in the December quarter, rising 2.6%, although this is still modest growth by historical standards. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter rose 0.8%, picking up from 0.5% in the September quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Both private-sector and government spending contributed to growth. But the report predates the latest conflict in the Middle East.
Australian economy picks up speed, but managing inflation and rates is getting harder
Australia’s economy grew at its fastest annual rate in almost three years in the December quarter, rising 2.6%, although this is still modest growth by historical standards. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter rose 0.8%, picking up from 0.5% in the September quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Both private-sector and government spending contributed to growth. But the report predates the latest conflict in the Middle East.
Is federal government spending really to blame for higher inflation? It’s not clear cut
There has been a spate of articles[1] and commentary in recent days calling on the Australian government to reduce spending. Those calling for government cuts[2] – mostly long-time advocates of smaller government – claim this would lower inflation, and as a consequence reduce interest rates. In fact, claims that government spending[3] is now a very large share of the economy are exaggerated. So, what’s actually going on with government spending?
Is federal government spending really to blame for higher inflation? It's not clear cut
There has been a spate of articles and commentary in recent days calling on the Australian government to reduce spending. Those calling for government cuts – mostly long-time advocates of smaller government – claim this would lower inflation, and as a consequence reduce interest rates. In fact, claims that government spending is now a very large share of the economy are exaggerated. So, what's actually going on with government spending?
The budget update shows a slight improvement in the federal deficit, but it’s mostly due to good luck
The federal government’s mid-year budget update shows a modest improvement in the deficit forecast in 2025–26, but much of this comes from a larger-than-forecast tax take. The update, known as the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), estimates a deficit for 2025–26 at A$37 billion, or 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP). This is down from the $42 billion forecast in the March 2025 federal budget and the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) issued before the May election.
Budget, trust, and tough choices: What public servants need to know for 2026
This year ended in tragedy, with the appalling Bondi shootings on December 14. They will cast a shadow over the Australian government in 2026. The government faces the challenge of responding decisively and vigorously to combat domestic terrorism and antisemitism without overreaching and harming civil rights. Public service advice to help it respond must straddle the tricky boundary between being rapid and careful at the same time. That is not the only challenge in the coming year.
The budget update shows a slight improvement in the federal deficit, but it’s mostly due to good luck
The federal government’s mid-year budget update shows a modest improvement in the deficit forecast in 2025–26, but much of this comes from a larger-than-forecast tax take. The update, known as the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), estimates a deficit for 2025–26 at A$37 billion, or 1.3% of gross domestic product (GDP). This is down from the $42 billion forecast in the March 2025 federal budget and the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO) issued before the May election.
Weak appointments framework based on a flawed Briggs report
Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher said the new framework for government appointments announced this week was “informed by” a review of public sector board appointments processes conducted by Lynelle Briggs. However, the key review recommendations were not adopted. The new framework is long on rhetoric, with few specific controls, no new legislation, and no mandatory cooling-off period before former ministers and ministerial staff can be appointed to a board.
Inflation jumps in October, adding to pressure on government to make budget savings Original
Annual inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.8% in October, adding to pressure on the government as it seeks to make savings across the public sector. When governments, whether Commonwealth, state or local, increase spending it adds to inflation. Opinions differ on whether Commonwealth spending makes a significant difference. Opposition finance spokesperson Jane Hume argues it does; Treasurer Jim Chalmers countering “the Reserve Bank hasn’t mentioned that in their recent statements”.
Measuring defence spending as a percentage of GDP is meaningless
Some people think Australia should spend more on defence. Others disagree. Those on either side of the debate often frame their arguments in terms of defence spending as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). It is common but wrong. Spending as a percentage of economic output is a meaningless and misleading measure. It says nothing about our ability to defend our interests. Capability is more important than spending.
Procurement overhaul raises stakes for APS ethics and accountability
On October 22, the Minister for Finance, Katy Gallagher, announced that the Commonwealth Procurement Rules (CPRs) were changing. The changes are extensive and take effect from November 17. This means the Australian Public Service will have its work cut out to implement new systems, processes, and training. Hopefully, the Department of Finance, which administers procurement, gave departments and agencies advance warning of impending changes.
The controversial GST deal with the states is under review. There are better alternatives
Treasurer Jim Chalmers last week announced the Productivity Commission will review the 2018 deal that gave states a guaranteed minimum share of the goods and services tax (GST). Within minutes, the Western Australian Treasurer Rita Saffioti responded with a promise to fight to keep WA’s “fair share” of the GST. She announced a “fairness fighter” team would be set up in the WA Treasury.
The controversial GST deal with the states is under review. There are better alternatives
Copyright 2025 Rio Tinto Treasurer Jim Chalmers last week announced the Productivity Commission will review the 2018 deal that gave states a guaranteed minimum share of the goods and services tax (GST). Within minutes, the Western Australian Treasurer Rita Saffioti responded with a promise to fight to keep WA’s “fair share” of the GST. She announced a “fairness fighter” team would be set up in the WA Treasury.
The controversial GST deal with the states is under review. There are better alternatives
© 2025 Tolerance.ca ® Inc. All reproduction rights reserved. All information reproduced on the Web pages of www.tolerance.ca (including articles, images, photographs, and logos) is protected by intellectual property rights owned by Tolerance.ca ® Inc. or, in certain cases, by its author. Any reproduction of the information for use other than personal use is prohibited.
SBS documentary reminds the APS that robodebt lessons remain unfinished business
This week, SBS television launches its new four-part documentary, The People vs. Robodebt. The documentary is about the human dimension of robodebt. It features interviews with real people (both victims of the scheme and a handful of courageous Centrelink compliance officers who spoke out against it), together with actors recreating events. Recreations were needed for cases where people sadly lost their lives to suicide.
Stephen Bartos, Author at Switzer Daily
Here's how Albo and Chalmers could fix the tax system post-roundtable Treasurer Jim Chalmers emerged from the three-day summit saying there was broad support from the gathered business and union leaders and economists for a simpler and more equitable tax system. Here's how it could work. Get the latest financial, business, and political expert commentary delivered to your inbox. When you sign up, we will never give away or sell or barter or trade your email address.
After three days of talks, a fairer tax system is on the agenda. There’s no shortage of ideas
© 2025 Tolerance.ca ® Inc. All reproduction rights reserved. All information reproduced on the Web pages of www.tolerance.ca (including articles, images, photographs, and logos) is protected by intellectual property rights owned by Tolerance.ca ® Inc. or, in certain cases, by its author. Any reproduction of the information for use other than personal use is prohibited.
After three days of talks, a fairer tax system is on the agenda. There’s no shortage of ideas
Day three of the government’s economic reform roundtable was about budget sustainability. It’s a slow burn issue. If the Australian government spends more than it raises in revenue, it has to finance the difference (the budget deficit) by borrowing. The most recent budget has forecast deficits for at least the next decade. It is not an immediate problem. Domestic and overseas investors want to lend to Australia.
After three days of talks, a fairer tax system is on the agenda. There’s no shortage of ideas
Day three of the government’s economic reform roundtable was about budget sustainability. It’s a slow burn issue. If the Australian government spends more than it raises in revenue, it has to finance the difference (the budget deficit) by borrowing. The most recent budget has forecast deficits[1] for at least the next decade. It is not an immediate problem. Domestic and overseas investors want to lend to Australia.
RBA’s surcharges kill could make public sector charging simpler
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is proposing to remove credit card surcharges for Mastercard, Visa and EFTPOS. It released a consultation paper on the proposal on 15 July. There won’t be a direct impact on the public service. After the NSW government took legal advice that found the practice as applied in Services NSW was unlawful, which then dropped surcharges, jurisdictions around Australia quickly followed suit. So, mostly public sector agencies already refrain from surcharging.
Agencies ignore advice on competitive procurement, sole sourcing dominates panel deals
Procurement, buying goods and services, is a big deal in government. According to the Department of Finance, in 2023-24, there were 83,171 contracts published on AusTender (the Commonwealth government’s tender reporting website) with a combined value of $99.58 billion. Huge amounts of taxpayer dollars are involved. It is clearly in the public interest for government departments to manage procurement well. In practice, however, it does not always happen.
Labor's productivity puzzle - Openforum
Higher productivity has quickly emerged as an economic reform priority for Labor’s second term. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has laid down some markers for a productivity round table in August, saying he wants it to build the “broadest possible base” for further economic reform. The government is right to focus on productivity. Improving economic efficiency will increase real wages, help bring down inflation and interest rates, and improve living standards.
‘Hard to measure and difficult to shift’: the government’s big productivity challenge
Higher productivity has quickly emerged as an economic reform priority for Labor’s second term. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has laid down some markers for a productivity round table in August, saying he wants it to build the “broadest possible base” for further economic reform. The government is right to focus on productivity. Improving economic efficiency will increase real wages, help bring down inflation and interest rates, and improve living standards.
‘Hard to measure and difficult to shift’: the government’s big productivity challenge
Higher productivity has quickly emerged as an economic reform priority for Labor’s second term. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has laid down some markers for a productivity round table in August, saying he wants it to build the “broadest possible base” for further economic reform. The government is right to focus on productivity. Improving economic efficiency will increase real wages, help bring down inflation and interest rates, and improve living standards.
the government’s big productivity challenge
Higher productivity has quickly emerged as an economic reform[1] priority for Labor’s second term. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has laid down some markers for a productivity round table[2] in August, saying he wants it to build the “broadest possible base” for further economic reform. The government is right to focus on productivity. Improving economic efficiency will increase real wages, help bring down inflation and interest rates, and improve living standards.
‘Hard to measure and difficult to shift’: the government’s big productivity challenge
© 2025 Tolerance.ca ® Inc. All reproduction rights reserved. All information reproduced on the Web pages of www.tolerance.ca (including articles, images, photographs, and logos) is protected by intellectual property rights owned by Tolerance.ca ® Inc. or, in certain cases, by its author. Any reproduction of the information for use other than personal use is prohibited.
‘Hard to measure and difficult to shift’: the government’s big productivity challenge
Higher productivity has quickly emerged as an economic reform[1] priority for Labor’s second term. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has laid down some markers for a productivity round table[2] in August, saying he wants it to build the “broadest possible base” for further economic reform. The government is right to focus on productivity. Improving economic efficiency will increase real wages, help bring down inflation and interest rates, and improve living standards.
Labor’s modest tax tweaks leave major reform and economic risks unaddressed
There are few taxation and economic election promises for the public service to implement now that the election dust has settled and it’s back to business for the Labor party. The most significant tax change proposed by Labor was a cut to the 16% rate down to 15% then 14% over two years. Even though it was a major talking point in the election campaign, it was not actually a promise (although it was included in the ABC’s post-election list of promises).
Inflation is easing, boosting the case for another interest rate cut in May
By John Hawkins and Stephen Bartos Australia’s headline inflation rate held steady at a four-year low of 2.4% in the March quarter, according to official data, adding to the case for a cut in interest rates at the next Reserve Bank board meeting in May. A key measure of underlying inflation closely watched by the RBA fell to 2.9%, returning to within the 2-3% inflation target band for the first time since 2021.
The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years
By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra The Coalition’s policy costings have been released, just two days ahead of the federal election. The costings show the Coalition would run up a larger budget deficit than Labor in the first two years of government, but make a greater contribution to budget repair in years three and four. This arises because two big-spending Coalition policies – the fuel excise reduction and cost of living tax offset – are short term.
The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years
The Coalition’s policy costings have been released, just two days ahead of the federal election. The costings show the Coalition would run up a larger budget deficit than Labor in the first two years of government, but make a greater contribution to budget repair in years three and four. This arises because two big-spending Coalition policies – the fuel excise reduction and cost of living tax offset – are short term. Their impact on the deficit disappears after year two.
The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years
The Coalition’s policy costings have been released, just two days ahead of the federal election. The costings show the Coalition would run up a larger budget deficit than Labor in the first two years of government, but make a greater contribution to budget repair in years three and four. This arises because two big-spending Coalition policies – the fuel excise reduction and cost of living tax offset – are short term. Their impact on the deficit disappears after year two.
Inflation is easing, boosting the case for another interest rate cut in May
Australia’s headline inflation rate held steady at a four-year low of 2.4% in the March quarter, according to official data, adding to the case for a cut in interest rates at the next Reserve Bank board meeting in May. A key measure of underlying inflation closely watched by the RBA fell to 2.9%, returning to within the 2-3% inflation target band for the first time since 2021.
Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed
The federal budget will be stronger than suggested in last month’s budget, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers who released Labor’s costings on Monday. Many of the policies included in the costings were already detailed in either the 2025 Budget or the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook, so are shown as having a net zero cost. But that does not mean they are costless. It means simply that their costs were included in previously published budget updates.
Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed
© 2025 Tolerance.ca ® Inc. All reproduction rights reserved. All information reproduced on the Web pages of www.tolerance.ca (including articles, images, photographs, and logos) is protected by intellectual property rights owned by Tolerance.ca ® Inc. or, in certain cases, by its author. Any reproduction of the information for use other than personal use is prohibited.
Big and small spending included in Labor costings, but off-budget items yet to be revealed
The federal budget will be stronger[1] than suggested in last month’s budget, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers who released Labor’s costings on Monday. Many of the policies included in the costings were already detailed in either the 2025 Budget or the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook, so are shown as having a net zero cost. But that does not mean they are costless. It means simply that their costs were included in previously published budget updates.
How much do election promises cost? And why haven’t we seen the costings yet?
With the May 3 federal election less than a week away, voters still have little reliable information on the costs of Labor or Coalition policies. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said Labor’s policy costings will be released imminently. At the 2022 election, the costings were not released for nearly two months after polling day. Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley last week told Sky News the Coalition costings will be “released in the lead up to election day and will be able to be fully interrogated”.
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