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Articles by Tim Culpan
SK Hynix 3Q Revenue, Operating Beat as Margins Hit Record
Good Evening from Taipei, SK Hynix passed 100 trillion won in quarterly revenue for the first time, beating estimates by 6.5%. Third-quarter operating profit was 8.2% ahead of the average of expectations compiled by FactSet. You need to at least be a CulpiumBasic (free) member to read beyond this point. Exclusive scoops, unparalleled insights, first to breaking news. Remember, you read it here first. Or you were left behind ;) Thanks for reading.
Anthropic S1 Now Live! First Look Original
Good Evening from Taipei, Anthropic just released its S1 — the pre-IPO form which includes its prospectus. This is a quick overview for you to skim through and share. Included is a brief income statement for the first six months of 2026. Read on for that and more. IMO, the most interesting data is in the table I compiled at the very end. This article is free for all to read. But you need to be a Culpium subscriber to get access.
TSMC Breaks Silence on Terafab, Hints at Tenant Role in Texas Original
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC posted record revenue, earnings, shipments, and average prices. It then used its third-quarter investor conference to forecast even higher sales and earnings while raising its full-year forecast. This AI boom has been good for Chip Kong. High-performance computing revenue (read: AI chips) jumped 22% from the prior quarter to account for 68% of sales. That helped average price per wafer break through $10,000 to the highest on record.
CASCI Posts First Drop in 12 Months as Constraints Bite
The September Culpium AI Supply Chain Index (CASCI) posted its first decline in a year with capacity and midstream component supply both hit by labor & manufacturing shortages. Midstream slowdown was foreshadowed in last month’s CASCI Tier-by-Tier report (Culpium Premium members only) Culpium’s proprietary CASCI Composite report is sent free to all registered subscribers every month. CASCI is a proprietary index developed by Culpium based on real data. Not sentiment or surveys.
CASCI September 2026 — Culpium Executive First Look
CASCI] CASCI Composite drops for the first time in 12 months amid supply constraints
Inside TSMC, Texas, and the Terafab Tango Original
“He said his biggest concern was that nobody would supply him with chips. “I told him: ‘Don't worry. As long as you're willing to pay, your chips will definitely be there.’” Good Evening from Taipei, Two years ago TSMC Chairman CC Wei made a promise to a client. You need to be a registered (free) subscriber of Culpium to read further. Culpium offers exclusive news and unparalleled insights from veteran award-winning tech journalist Tim Culpan. Find out more about Culpium here.
Elon Musk Confirms TSMC-Terafab Talks
Good Evening from Taipei, SpaceX and Terafab founder Elon Musk today confirmed my story on talks between TSMC and Terafab. Late Friday I reported exclusively that TSMC was exploring ways to work with SpaceX’s Terafab project. “The most likely scenario is for TSMC to try to own and operate the new factory,” I wrote.
Exclusive: TSMC Exploring Plans to Work With Elon Musk’s Terafab
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC is exploring ways to work with Elon Musk’s Terafab to help the startup chipmaker run its new semiconductor factories in Texas, my sources tell me. Culpium is an independent media outlet with a track-record of breaking news on the Asian technology industry. You need to a free subscriber to read beyond this point. Sign up now. To learn more about Culpium, my 25-year background in journalism, and what I stand for, click below.
Exclusive: TSMC Exploring Plans to Work With Elon Musk’s Terafab
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC is exploring ways to work with Elon Musk’s Terafab to help the startup chipmaker run its new semiconductor factories in Texas, my sources tell me. Culpium is an independent media outlet with a track-record of breaking news on the Asian technology industry. You need to a free subscriber to read beyond this point. Sign up now. To learn more about Culpium, my 25-year background in journalism, and what I stand for, click below.
How Anthropic Can Earn its $2 Trillion IPO Price
Good Evening from Taipei, Anthropic’s proposed $2 trillion IPO price is extraordinary. Data revealed by Reuter’s Echo Wang tell me the numbers do not work. Yet. But the AI company may be able to grow into that valuation. Let me show you how by comparing Anthropic to a few other famous IPOs in the same space. I’ve chosen Amazon’s 1997 IPO, Google in 2004, and Facebook in 2012 because they represent a cross-section of companies in the broader internet space.
How Anthropic Can Earn its $2 Trillion IPO Price
Discover more from Culpium, by Tim Culpan Exclusive news plus unparalleled insights and analysis on the global economy, supply chains, and technology from a veteran of Asian technology journalism. Independent. Culpium: noun [U] — a cure for lack of knowledge, understanding or clarity. Already have an account? Sign in [Opinion] Momentum, a path to profitability, and fiscal discipline must all line up Good Evening from Taipei, Anthropic’s proposed $2 trillion IPO price is extraordinary.
Tech The Money: Qualcomm Could Do With Some Mediatek Magic
Tech The Money: A weekly look inside the business & finance of tech. There are few rivalries more fierce and fascinating than that between an American cellphone-chip giant and its smaller, more nimble Taiwanese peer. Yet the AI boom has made minnows of both Qualcomm and Mediatek. Higher memory-chip costs, shrinking consumer budgets, and a post-Covid slowdown in the global smartphone market left neither chip designer untouched.
Tech The Money: Who Profits from the AI Pilled
Tech The Money: A weekly look inside the business & finance of tech. The AI boom seems aptly described by the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats.” But these rising waters have definitely not lifted all AI players equally. The disparity between the biggest winners and the largest laggards provides a lot of insight into how to view companies during boom times. Enjoy your week.
The Business Case for an AI Slowdown
Dario Amodei thinks a slowdown in AI development is necessary to protect humanity. Beijing thinks an AI slowdown might be needed to protect the Chinese Communist Party. Jensen Huang calls this talk irresponsible. His buddy, President Donald Trump, dismisses the risk as a hoax. Good Evening from Taipei, AI is moving fast and breaking things, and the recent debate around “Pacing the Frontier” pits humanity against national security.
The Business Case for an AI Slowdown
Dario Amodei thinks a slowdown in AI development is necessary to protect humanity. Beijing thinks an AI slowdown might be needed to protect the Chinese Communist Party. Jensen Huang calls this talk irresponsible. His buddy, President Donald Trump, dismisses the risk as a hoax. Good Evening from Taipei, AI is moving fast and breaking things, and the recent debate around “Pacing the Frontier” pits humanity against national security.
Tech The Money: The King’s Crooked Smile
A weekly look inside the business & finance of tech. I first noticed this fact about a month ago, and it's been gnawing away at me ever since. Tech The Money by Culpium, is free. But you need to be a registered subscriber. Become Part of the Culpium Community
Tech The Money: The King’s Crooked Smile
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CASCI August Data Points to Boost in AI Production Capacity
The August Culpium AI Supply Chain Index (CASCI) report shows a rebound in AI-server assembly and significant new manufacturing capacity coming online over the next few quarters. This abridged monthly Culpium AI Supply Chain Index (CASCI) report is free to subscribers on all tiers, but you must be a registered subscriber. Culpium this month launches the tier-by-tier breakdown of its proprietary Culpium AI Supply Chain Index (CASCI). No one else on the planet offers anything like it.
CASCI August 2026 Report - Executive First Look
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MediaTek Sticks With Older Packaging as Memory Risks Grow
Good Evening from Taipei, MediaTek has chosen to skip TSMC’s most-advanced chip-packaging technologies in favor of older approaches that provide more flexibility, my sources tell me. Production of MediaTek’s latest smartphone processor is currently ramping up on TSMC’s 2nm node, but instead of utilizing the foundry’s Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) packaging, the Taiwanese chip designer is sticking with a variant of high-bandwidth PoP (package-on-package), I am told. This entire post is free.
Tech The Money: Nvidia’s New Friends Are Old Friends
Introducing: Tech The Money: A weekly look inside the business & finance of tech. Numerous Culpium subscribers have told me they want more analysis and data behind the tech industry. They want to follow the money. But, I also promised not to spam your inbox. I have a solution. But first, I am keeping my promise to you. You Need to at Least be a Free Subscriber Cool Graphic Behind Here You’re Missing Something Amazing. Think CAT, but better. Premium Has its Perks.
Culpium, by Tim Culpan
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Inside TSMC, Intel and Apple’s Circle of Trust
Culpium Premium Launched on Sept. 1, as a result more Culpium work will sit behind a paywall. This is one such piece. There will be still be free articles, but fewer & fewer. Thanks for your support. Good Evening from Taipei, The team from Intel went into the meeting with their client feeling very proud of themselves. You need to at least be a free subscriber to read this. Exclusive Content Inside. Subscribe to Culpium Premium for access. There’s great stuff here just waiting for you to read. No agenda.
Sony Missing the AI Boom Puts Breakup Back on the Table
Good Evening from Taipei, Announcement: The paywall arrives Sept. 1 with the launch of Culpium Premium. Prices jump 40% a week later. Join us for a launch party next week. Details at the bottom. Sony missed the party. There’s no other way of putting it. While the rest of the tech sector is getting drunk on AI moonshine, Sony has been sitting in the corner like a frumpy friend afraid to even take a sip of Red Bull. This sucks for investors. Something needs to be done about it.
Sony Missing the AI Boom Puts Breakup Back on the Table
Good Evening from Taipei, Announcement: The paywall arrives Sept. 1 with the launch of Culpium Premium. Prices jump 40% a week later. Join us for a launch party next week. Details at the bottom. Sony missed the party. There’s no other way of putting it. While the rest of the tech sector is getting drunk on AI moonshine, Sony has been sitting in the corner like a frumpy friend afraid to even take a sip of Red Bull. This sucks for investors. Something needs to be done about it.
Micron and the Myth of American Memory
Good evening from Taipei, If Micron’s corporate life were to be written like a human biography, the opening chapter would read something like this: Born in a basement — the child of semiconductor engineeers and an Idaho potato farmer — Micron dabbled in design and processors before settling on memory chips. It headed overseas as a young adult to find fame and fortune in far off lands.
Micron and the Myth of American Memory
Good evening from Taipei, If Micron’s corporate life were to be written like a human biography, the opening chapter would read something like this: Born in a basement — the child of semiconductor engineeers and an Idaho potato farmer — Micron dabbled in design and processors before settling on memory chips. It headed overseas as a young adult to find fame and fortune in far off lands.
Expense Culpium to Your Company
Dozens of Culpium Premium readers have expensed their subscription pledge to their employer. The value add and low-cost makes this a good idea. Here’s a template you can use to ask your manager for approval, including a link to the Group Discount. Subject: Approval Request: Culpium Premium subscription before the price jumps 40% Body: Hi {boss}, I’ve been reading Culpium for a while and it’s proven to be a wealth of news and ideas, and is very useful to our work. Here’s a link to the website.
Nvidia Who? The AI Supply Chain Has Moved its Focus Beyond GPUs
Good Evening from Taipei, At the start of the year I explained how Apple had lost its position as TSMC’s biggest customer and was no longer Hsinchu’s Belle of the Ball. “Apple, which once held a dominant position on TSMC’s customer list, now needs to fight for production capacity,” I wrote at the time. Nvidia had taken Apple’s spot thanks to global hunger for the chip designer’s powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) used in AI servers.
Nvidia Who? The AI Supply Chain Has Moved its Focus Beyond GPUs
Good Evening from Taipei, At the start of the year I explained how Apple had lost its position as TSMC’s biggest customer and was no longer Hsinchu’s Belle of the Ball. “Apple, which once held a dominant position on TSMC’s customer list, now needs to fight for production capacity,” I wrote at the time. Nvidia had taken Apple’s spot thanks to global hunger for the chip designer’s powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) used in AI servers.
Exclusive: AI Server Growth Rebounds After Months of Weakness, CASCI Data Shows
145.3 points, highest on record +4.4 pts, largest gain in six months Non-memory component shortages are keeping suppliers from hitting revenue potential CASCI is a proprietary index developed by Culpium based on real data. Not sentiment. Not surveys. Real, on-the-ground data. CASCI is now one of the industry’s most-watched metrics and is used by hedge funds, supply-chain planners, and purchasing managers to track the sector in near-real time.
Exclusive: AI Server Growth Rebounds After Months of Weakness, CASCI Data Shows
145.3 points, highest on record +4.4 pts, largest gain in six months Non-memory component shortages are keeping suppliers from hitting revenue potential CASCI is a proprietary index developed by Culpium based on real data. Not sentiment. Not surveys. Real, on-the-ground data. CASCI is now one of the industry’s most-watched metrics and is used by hedge funds, supply-chain planners, and purchasing managers to track the sector in near-real time.
Exclusive: Apple is Scrambling for DRAM Weeks Ahead of Ultra, iPhone 18 Launch Original
Good Evening from Taipei, Apple and its suppliers are scrambling to get enough memory chips for its upcoming release of new iPhone models, my sources tell me. With less than six weeks until the expected debut of the foldable iPhone Ultra as well as the iPhone 18 and iPhone 18 Pro, assemblers are working with Apple to rush shipments of DRAM used in mobile devices, I am told. Apple leans heavily on Micron for DRAM, but also procures from SK Hynix and Samsung.
Exclusive: Apple is Scrambling for DRAM Weeks Ahead of Ultra, iPhone 18 Launch
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Microsoft Just Said the Nvidia Part Out Loud Original
Good Evening from Taipei, One of the most important statements ever made about the global AI rollout came last Wednesday from Amy Hood, Microsoft’s Chief Financial Officer. She had a lot of competition for quote of the week. This part is for subscribers only. It’s the best part, and well worth your time. The good news: subscription is free, for now. Sadly, by the time Microsoft’s Amy Hood said the quiet part out loud it was far too late for Situational Awareness to listen.
Culpium, by Tim Culpan
“The best piece of opinion writing I've read in a long time“ — Society of Publishers Asia judging panel. “We need more intellectual leaders like you” — pledged reader, finance industry I’m Tim Culpan, and this is Culpium. The paywall is coming soon and the price will jump 40% after that. Expense Culpium to your client or employer. Here’s an email template you can use. I admit that I’m low key and not as outrageous as many other writers in tech. That’s by design.
SK Hynix Sales and Profit Miss, Bears Roar Original
Good Morning from Taipei, SK Hynix bears may have been right. Second-quarter operating profit climbed a mind-boggling 557% to a record 60.54 trillion won ($4.2 billion). But that was short of the 64.31 trillion won average of analyst estimates compiled by FactSet. Revenue also missed. FactSet’s survey saw 84.17 trillion won, yet the world’s largest maker of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) only delivered 79.32 trillion won (also a record).
The US-China AI Battle is About Economics, Not Technology Original
Good Evening from Taipei, Chinese AI models are the hottest topic in tech this week. Moonshot AI topped the headlines with its Kimi K3 model, followed soon after by Alibaba’s Qwen 3.8-Max. They’re generally viewed as technological developments. I see them as economic developments. And over the long term I believe we need to spend more time looking at the US-China AI battle through the lens of economic rivalry. Subscribers only beyond this point. You’re missing out on the best part.
The World Cup, a Dumb Ball, and the Glory of Old Tech Original
Good Evening from Taipei, I don’t normally publish on a Sunday, but this Sunday is different. It’s World Cup Final Day. Outside of the Olympic opening & closing ceremonies, it’s one of the world’s most-watched events. So I am using it as an excuse to tell you about the star of the show — the ball — and to explain one of the most important lessons in technology. Culpium content is only available to signed-up subscribers. It’s currently free, but you must be signed up via Substack to get access.
TSMC is Now the Biggest Driver of AI, Not the Brake
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC is now without a doubt the world’s premier facilitator of the AI boom. Second-quarter earnings, reported Thursday afternoon, were themselves quite undramatic. Revenue was in line with guidance and gross margin just beat its own outlook.
TSMC is Now the Biggest Driver of AI, Not the Brake
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC is now without a doubt the world’s premier facilitator of the AI boom. Second-quarter earnings, reported Thursday afternoon, were themselves quite undramatic. Revenue was in line with guidance and gross margin just beat its own outlook.
AI Server Makers are Under Strain, CASCI Data Shows
140.9 points, driven by rapid uptick in chipmaking +1.4 pts, rising for 10th straight month Divergence emerging between strong upstream and weaker downstream tiers This month’s CASCI report was delayed by a typhoon which swept across Taiwan and shut businesses for two days. There’s no indication that operations across the supply chain were affected, but it’s another reminder of the resilience needed when doing business in Taiwan.
What SK Hynix's IPO Prospectus Doesn't Tell You
Good Evening from Taipei, SK Hynix is going big in America. The world’s premier maker of high-bandwidth memory is set to raise around $28 billion from a sale of American Depositary Receipts that will be listed on the Nasdaq this week. Unlike compatriot Samsung which has a large suite of products, SK Hynix only makes memory chips: DRAM and NAND. As a result, this listing is a good chance for American investors to get exposure to one of the chief beneficiaries of the AI boom.
What SK Hynix's IPO Prospectus Doesn't Tell You
Good Evening from Taipei, SK Hynix is going big in America. The world’s premier maker of high-bandwidth memory is set to raise around $28 billion from a sale of American Depositary Receipts that will be listed on the Nasdaq this week. Unlike compatriot Samsung which has a large suite of products, SK Hynix only makes memory chips: DRAM and NAND. As a result, this listing is a good chance for American investors to get exposure to one of the chief beneficiaries of the AI boom.
Inside Apple's Chipflation Dilemma Original
Good Evening from Taipei, Apple’s decision to raise prices across the board last week took a lot of people by surprise. Customers rued their decision to hold off buying a new MacBook Neo or MacBook Pro after seeing costs jump. Many also saw it as another example of Apple flexing its pricing power, convinced that consumers will still buy no matter how much Cupertino charges. It’s the exact opposite. It was an admission of defeat.
TSMC Clients Handed Price Hikes Across All Advanced Nodes Original
Good Evening from Taipei, TSMC used its North American symposium in April to debut the foundry’s next process node and put memory-chip maker SK Hynix in the spotlight. “This year, we are introducing derivatives of A14, including A13 and A12, both planned for production in 2029,” Kevin Zhang, TSMC’s senior VP of business development and global sales told the Santa Clara crowd.
GlobalWafers Has a Texas-Sized Problem
Good Evening from Taipei, A decade of acquisitions by GlobalWafers and its parent Sino-American Silicon vaulted the Taiwanese company into the top echelons of semiconductor wafer suppliers just as the world’s hunger for chips became even more ravenous. But that momentum is under threat in Texas where the Lone Star State and the Federal Government need to make tough decisions about industrial policy, according to my sources.
GlobalWafers Has a Texas-Sized Problem
Good Evening from Taipei, A decade of acquisitions by GlobalWafers and its parent Sino-American Silicon vaulted the Taiwanese company into the top echelons of semiconductor wafer suppliers just as the world’s hunger for chips became even more ravenous. But that momentum is under threat in Texas where the Lone Star State and the Federal Government need to make tough decisions about industrial policy, according to my sources.
CASCI Data Points to Massive AI Capacity Ramp
139.5 points, record high. +1.7 pts, driven by capacity expansion The CASCI cycle remains Strong, indicating continued upward momentum ahead CASCI is a proprietary index developed by Culpium based on real, official data. It quickly became one of the industry’s most-watched metrics. Make sure you don’t miss out. We saw continued growth in semiconductor and component makers in May.
Tim Culpan (@tculpan)
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