Tim Cohen
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South African
journalist and editor: Currently Senior Editor at fm.co.za. Views my own ...obvs. Substack at www.timcohen.co.za
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Articles by Tim Cohen
Loose Canon π₯ Predicting AI - the future isn't what it used to be
One of the wonderful things about AI is how it's made idiots out of us, and I don't mean just our ability to do maths problems. It's changed so fast, and in such unpredictable ways, that confident predictions made just a few years ago have turned out to be way, way off the mark. Its amusing, and embarrassing ... and revealing.
Loose Canon 💥 A Nobel for criticising the economics of saying nothing at great length
This year's Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded to two American economists, Robert Hall of Stanford University and Michael Woodford of Columbia University, for what the Nobel committee described as their contributions to the “microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”.
Loose Canon 💥 Pillay's Nobel peace prize; a respectful critique
Oh boy. The Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Where do you even start? Mountains have been written on the subject, and it’s so complicated that like other very complicated topics it’s possible to have two contradictory but simultaneously correct views. It’s a conflict so fraught that sensible people keep away from it (hello, Ed Sheeran) ... so obviously I'm going to jump right in. I hate fence sitters (hello, Ed Sheeran - again).
MPRD in 2026: A maze of mineral policy
It is a cliché of effective industrial policy that developing an industry works best if there is “policy certainty”.
Loose Canon 💥 Trump, Ramaphosa and the limits of business acumen
Imagine for a moment that South Africa finally decides to do what people have been recommending for decades, by bringing in a proper businessperson to run the country. Huzzah! His or her first concern would be that the headcount is ridiculous. Sixty-three million employees and few of them report to anybody, least of all the person at the apex of the pyramid of power. They seem to be working against each other with no accountability.
Loose Canon 💥 The case for taking silly robots seriously
The World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing have just wrapped up and judging by the footage, they were glorious, amazing, and thankfully, wonderfully hilarious. The Wall Street Journal's take is that the genre delivers exactly what we need right now: pure physical comedy, schadenfreude and a reassuring feeling of superiority. One clip shows a bunch of two-legged machines on a 100m track in Beijing slamming full tilt into the finish-line barrier, collapsing and reeling like drunks.
Can De Beers make diamonds forever again?
So … diamonds are forever, you say. Are we sure about that? The diamond market has, over the past few years, seen a cataclysmic shift that threatens its foundations to the core with the sweeping advent into the market of lab-grown diamonds. The question now is not only what the future of the industry will be, but indeed whether it has a future at all.
Loose Canon 💥 Dolly Parton, rhinestones and the art of investing
It’s amazing how Dolly Parton’s death has prompted an outpouring of grief beyond what you might expect for someone of her fame, generosity, and ability. Her careful lifelong effort to appeal to a wide audience, her ebullience, and her spirited humour, combined to produce a genuinely heartfelt torrent of tributes. Some of the reactions have been wonderful. Kacey Musgraves said simply that “the world feels a lot less sparkly all of a sudden”.
PODCAST 📣 The ANC and the Bokke: each snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
South Africa doesn’t need a municipal election popularity contest; it needs a survival strategy. So says merchant banker Mark Barnes in conversation with Financial Mail journalist Tim Cohen and former Goldman Sachs Partner and now adjunct professor at Columbia Business School Colin Coleman. In this lively discussion, we talk about the November 4 elections not as a political event but as an opportunity to remedy municipal bankruptcy.
Loose canon 💥 A “vibecession” - the recession between your ears
I have been wondering whether one of the great economic problems of our age is not inflation itself but the peculiar havoc it wreaks inside our heads. There is even a word for this now: “vibecession”, coined by economic commentator Kyla Scanlon for that odd circumstance in which the statistics say the economy is doing reasonably well while almost everybody sitting around the dinner table insists it is going to hell in a handbasket.
Loose Canon 💥 Six (possibly dubious) reasons Homer is back
Ever since I was a child, Homer’s Iliad and Odyssey have been part of my life, to the extent that all of our various homes were called “Troy” and all of our pets were named after characters in from the poems. We had a very elegant Persian cat called Priam, a beautiful dog inevitably called Helen, and a large bullmastiff called Hector. We even had a sailboat called The Wooden Horse.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP!’ – Fifa’s fables, foibles and fraud
Launch access Welcome to the new Financial Mail. For a limited time, we’ve unlocked every premium article. Subscribe now to keep reading Financial Mail’s reporting and analysis when the launch offer ends. How do sport and money mix? Like oil and water. It’s such a difficult balance to get right; sports can generate enormous turnover and need the cash to support development and pay the players. But if you go too far, you lose sight of the public and the ethic.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP!’ – Fifa’s fables, foibles and fraud
How do sport and money mix? Like oil and water. It’s such a difficult balance to get right; sports can generate enormous turnover and need the cash to support development and pay the players. But if you go too far, you lose sight of the public and the ethic. So it’s turning out for Fifa, despite a fabulous world cup. Talk about an own goal! Merchant banker Mark Barnes and journalist Tim Cohen discuss this issue, and its much less benign distant cousin, war.
Criminal syndicates may be infiltrating licensed financial firms
The latest annual report from South Africa’s financial regulator, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA), shows a spectacular increase in administrative penalties – to R2.89bn in the year to March, from just R119.8m the previous year – with the organisation warning that increasingly sophisticated criminal networks are moving beyond simple online scams and infiltrating apparently legitimate, licensed financial institutions.
Loose canon 💥 Fifa’s grand plan shows us greed is often confirmation bias with a balance sheet
Greed is such an odd thing. Most people think it is the understandable, if morally dubious, consequence of scarcity. You have nothing, so you are desperate to get more. Its obvious. But actually, more often than not, I suspect, it is the consequence of success, not failure. It's much more of a tailwind than a headwind.
The race for De Beers is still wide open
Anglo American and the Botswana government appear to have differing ideas about how close the sale of De Beers is to being wound up – and, more particularly, whether a buyer has already reached the front of the queue. Botswana’s government told parliament earlier this month that Anglo had selected the Global Diamond Consortium, led by former De Beers CEO Gareth Penny, as the preferred bidder for the mining company’s 85% interest in the diamond group.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP’ – should the PIC be closed down?
Mark Barnes and Tim Cohen gallop through the week’s events, offering thoughts, opinions, and perspectives on local and international affairs. Here, they ask existential questions about the beleaguered PIC. With special guest Leon Louw. Should the PIC be closed down? Podcast Episode · ListenUP! · July 27 · 24m Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup.
Webber Wentzel and Linklaters call time on 13-year alliance
Local top-tier law firm Webber Wentzel and international legal giant Linklaters have agreed to end their longstanding alliance in November, bringing to a close what appears to be the last major exclusive bilateral pairing between an independently branded South African firm and one of London’s elite global practices.
How to build a PIC dream board
Eight Public Investment Corporation (PIC) directors, including chair and deputy finance minister David Masondo, have now resigned since Masondo unceremoniously suspended CEO Patrick Dlamini two weeks ago. The implosion of PIC management, its terrible unlisted investment record, and the departure of its board provides finance minister Enoch Godongwana a fabulous opportunity to do it all again from scratch and get it right this time. He’s promised a new board by Thursday.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP’ – should the PIC be closed down?
Since the Public Investment Corporation, the nominal investor of more than R3-trillion in retirement savings of the entire civil service, now has no board or permanent CEO, not to mention a broadly poor investment record, would this not be a great time to do away with it entirely and hand the mandate to the professionals? Merchant banker Mark Barnes and journalist Tim Cohen discuss this issue with special guest and free-market proponent Leon Louw.
Loose canon 💥How to grow old and remain irritating
Last weekend, I attended a memorial for a fabulous person who died too young, even though he was actually pretty old. Some people are always young, and he was one of them; a friend and business mentor to people much younger than he; a pleasure in company; idiosyncratic in style and full of character. The memorial was fulsome and a balm, as they often are. But there is no getting away from it: death is much closer than we imagine.
Can De Beers make diamonds forever again?
The instinctive response of most analysts to the current woes of the diamond industry is that there has been a dire lack of marketing. But is this true? And, if it is, how difficult will it be for the new owners of De Beers to turn its once awesome marketing ship around? De Beers is a legend in the world of marketing, having famously convinced first Americans and then Asians and then almost everybody around the world that romantic love could not be complete without a diamond gift.
Why the SARB is losing patience with South Africa’s banks
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is toying with making low-cost, person-to-person cash transfers mandatory for banks, which still earn billions in fees from their various payment platforms. These transfers have revolutionised the payments systems in countries like Brazil and India. Yet banks’ embrace of the technology has been slow in South Africa, even though, says the SARB, this measure alone could boost economic growth by up to a percentage point.
The unbearable weight of the next pass
One of the more interesting things about the 2026 World Cup was that two teams played some of their best football after it was no longer possible to win the cup. Against Argentina in the semifinal, England took the lead and then began behaving like someone carrying a Ming vase across a floor covered in ball bearings. The passing became cautious, the players retreated, and every decision seemed to require an internal legal opinion.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP!’ – the meaning of sport
This weekend has seen a feast of sporting events, and your hosts, merchant banker Mark Barnes and journalist Tim Cohen, dissect the soccer, the tennis and the rugby … deciding who should have won and who should not. Juuuuust kidding. We talk about how decision-making at the peak of sporting events can be hobbled by too much mind. And there is that other sport, the Public Investment Corporation, and its seeming inability to function properly.
Loose Canon 💥 The unbearable weight of the next pass
One of the more interesting things about England’s 2026 World Cup was that the team played some of its best football after it was no longer possible to win the Cup. Against Argentina in the semi-final, England took the lead and then began behaving like someone carrying a Ming vase across a floor covered in ball bearings. The passing became cautious, the players retreated, and every decision seemed to require an internal legal opinion.
The Liz Truss theory of municipal finance
One of the more extraordinary facts underlying the National Treasury’s latest confrontation with local government is not merely that it has temporarily withheld July’s equitable share transfers to 69 municipalities. It is that nearly half of South Africa’s municipalities have apparently thought it perfectly acceptable to pass budgets they had no realistic prospect of funding. You almost have to admire the optimism.
Orbiting the obvious
Oddly, or perhaps not, I know quite a bit about rural internet – not as a technician but as a user, since I actually live in a rural area, as opposed to most politicians who pretend they do, but don’t. When I first moved into my rural digs near Prince Albert in the Karoo, I was desperate for internet connectivity – so desperate that I became a client of Telkom.
Why De Beers opted to shut Venetia diamond mine
De Beers: Venetia diamond mine DE Beers is preparing to shutter South Africa’s largest diamond mine for two years, threatening thousands of jobs and removing roughly two-fifths of the country’s diamond production as the industry’s most famous company battles one of the worst downturns in its history. The move is intended to cut costs, while production will be increased elsewhere, enough to leave its overall output guidance unchanged.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP!’ – South Africa’s three biggest problems, right now
If you had to isolate the three biggest problems faced by South Africa right now, the quantity and variety of options would be numerous. Poverty, inequality and unemployment are the typical trio mentioned. Merchant banker Mark Barnes, journalist Tim Cohen and special guest Rob Rose make a case for an alternative trio: political parties unable or unwilling to choose the most qualified people; government over-interventionism where it’s unnecessary; and under-interventionism where it is necessary.
Beneficiation is not a spell
There are few words in South African economic policy more seductive than “beneficiation”. It has everything: moral uplift, industrial ambition, a pleasingly muscular rhythm and the promise that somewhere, just beyond the next cabinet lekgotla, a lump of ore will be persuaded to become a dishwasher, a turbine blade or perhaps a small electric car by force of patriotic will. It is the sort of word that makes policy documents stand up straighter.
De Beers mothballs Venetia as diamond crisis deepens
De Beers is preparing to shutter South Africa’s largest diamond mine for two years, threatening thousands of jobs and removing roughly two-fifths of the country’s diamond production as the industry’s most famous company battles one of the worst downturns in its history. The move is intended to cut costs, while production will be increased elsewhere, enough to leave its overall output guidance unchanged.
De Beers fails to dazzle as more buyers withdraw
Anglo American’s auction of its storied diamond division De Beers has turned out to be a bit of a dog show, with many of the potential bidders apparently dropping out amid continuously declining rough diamond prices. This now includes former De Beers chief executive Bruce Cleaver, who had been leading one of the bidding consortiums. He tells Currency he has reluctantly decided to withdraw because neither he nor his financial backers could justify the economics in the current market.
Loose Canon💥The kids are alright; the economy is not
Pete Townshend was just 20 when he wrote the immortal line, “Hope I die before I get old”, for The Who’s 1965 anthem My Generation. It was an admirably bold commitment for someone who had not yet encountered lower-back pain, compound interest, or the administrative complexity of claiming from a medical aid. Townshend, born in May 1945, is now 81, which does suggest that youthful manifestos should come with the same disclaimer as long-term economic forecasts: circumstances may change.
The show goes on – on fumes, if necessary
When Monica Newton is asked how the 2026 National Arts Festival went, she gives the only honest answer any outgoing arts CEO could possibly give after 11 days of theatre, music, dance, comedy, visual art, catering crises, artists, audiences, funders, local politics, winter weather and presumably at least one printer refusing to work at the worst possible moment. “On fumes sometimes,” she says. “But yeah, we’ve done it.
South32-Alcoa deal exposes beneficiation myth
THERE are few words in South African economic policy more seductive than “beneficiation”. It has everything: moral uplift, industrial ambition, a pleasingly muscular rhythm and the promise that somewhere, just beyond the next cabinet lekgotla, a lump of ore will be persuaded to become a dishwasher, a turbine blade or perhaps a small electric car by force of patriotic will. It is the sort of word that makes policy documents stand up straighter.
The glamour and plumbing of an IPO bookbuild
Funny what you don’t know about investing until you try to do it yourself. As a journalist, I’m not an especially active investor for conflict-of-interest reasons. My portfolio, as I laughingly call it, is handled by my brilliant PSG financial adviser who makes all the substantive investment decisions. But occasionally I do invest directly through EasyEquities to get a bit of a hands-on feel, though I never invest in local stocks that I might have to write about at some point.
Treasury draws a line on failing municipalities
In National Treasury’s most forceful intervention yet in local government finances, it has temporarily stopped the July “equitable share transfers” to 69 municipalities, including Joburg, Nelson Mandela Bay, Mangaung and Buffalo City. The move is aimed at instilling better fiscal discipline. The “equitable share” amounts to about 15.5% of total municipal revenue on 2026/27 budget numbers, but its importance varies sharply by municipality.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUP!’ – festooned with festivities
The Durban July, Opera at La Scala and the Soccer World Cup: we are festooned with festivities, and we discuss them! Merchant banker Mark Barnes and journalist Tim Cohen are joined by arts writer and enthusiast extraordinaire Sarah Buitendach to talk about some of the amazing events of our time, and artists in general. Also, if it’s okay for presidents to second-guess referees, where were you when you were needed, Mr Ramaphosa?
Why the ANC likes joblessness stats
Sometimes it’s so much more enlightening to speak to a retired CEO than a current one. Existing CEOs obviously have enormous responsibilities, many of which entail not unnecessarily infuriating one or other constituency; staff or unions, or shareholders … or government. It’s just endless. But once they are retired, all those responsibilities slide away somewhat, and what’s left is a whole bucketload of experience and history and knowledge.
Zuma and Trump: The cash register and the throne
Two events, very different in legal character but rich in the symbolism of corruption, were triggered this past week and it's interesting to compare them. The first was Jacob Zuma’s reported meeting in India with Ajay Gupta, and the second was US president Donald Trump's disclosure of his financial interests, demonstrating that his crypto ventures earned him $1.4-billion last year. In both cases, I’m interested in not only the facts of each, but also the psychology involved.
America, f*ck yeah!
In an enormously packed field, perhaps the most embarrassing, chair-writhing scene in cinematic history was Bill Pullman’s pre-battle speech in the movie Independence Day. Just before the fly boys go out in their few remaining fighter jets to take on those horrid, annihilating aliens, President Thomas J Whitmore solemnly informs the planet that July 4 will no longer be merely an American holiday, but the day the whole world will achieve its independence.
Loose Canon💥 A dispatch to ‘merica on the occasion of its 250th birthday
In an enormously packed field, perhaps the most embarrassing, toe-curling, chair-writhing scene in cinematic history was Bill Pullman’s pre-battle speech in the movie Independence Day. Just before the fly boys go out in their few remaining fighter jets to take on those horrid, annihilating aliens, President Thomas J. Whitmore solemnly informs the planet that July 4th will no longer be merely an American holiday, but the day the whole world will achieve its independence.
PODCAST: ‘ListenUp’ – xenophobia in South Africa
The terrible prospect of xenophobic violence is once again afflicting South Africa this week, dragging Mzansi into the fraught global political issue of immigration. Having the national soccer side booed in the US by other African nations at the World Cup is deeply sad, but, then again, so is struggling to find a job back home. Merchant banker Mark Barnes and journalist Tim Cohen wrestle with the issue, offering some ideas on a subject that has many aspects and few obvious solutions.
Fifa is the new vampire squid
A few weeks ago, I shamefully admit, I was cynical about football governing body Fifa. Now that the Soccer World Cup is under way, however, I have to acknowledge my error. Fifa has been genius. Provided, of course, that what you admire is the cool, unsentimental ability to locate every last human emotion and convert it into a billable event.
Prosus: not just Tencent in a trench coat
For years, Naspers, and more recently its cousin Prosus, have been trying to convince the market that the company is more than just its mega-holding in Chinese giant Tencent with paperwork attached. In its results published on Monday, it finally generated some proof that this might be the case using the tried and tested technique of generating actual profit.
BEE’s problem is not its enemies. It’s its friends
At the recent Nedbank Top Empowerment Conference in Sandton, trade, industry and competition minister Parks Tau launched into a defence of broad-based BEE (BBBEE). Addressing the criticism that BBBEE has “failed” because huge “gaps” remain, he made the following revealing comment: “I want to be clear that the argument is not new, and it is not neutral.
The department of grand plans and small results
South Africa’s industrial policy has always had the air of a committee trying to assemble a Boeing from a leftover Meccano set, three slogans and a strongly worded cabinet statement. The latest contraption is the new industrial development strategy, or IDS, which arrives just as manufacturing has once again reminded everyone that it is not in the mood to be the cavalry.
Loose Canon 💥 Britain took back control. Starmer becomes the sixth UK prime minister to lose it.
It seems almost fated. Nearly ten years after Brexit, the UK loses its sixth prime minister prematurely following Keir Starmer’s resignation this week. It is as though there is a link between the two. Before Brexit, the UK’s post-Second World War prime ministers served for an average of five years, from Clement Attlee to David Cameron. After Brexit, the average more than halved to just over two years from Theresa May to Keir Starmer.
Britain’s Brexit hangover claims another PM
It seems almost fated. Nearly 10 years after Brexit, the UK loses its sixth prime minister prematurely, following Keir Starmer’s resignation this week. It is as though there is a link between the two. Before Brexit, the UK’s post-World War II prime ministers served for an average of five years, from Clement Attlee to David Cameron. After Brexit, the average more than halved to just over two years, from Theresa May to Starmer.
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