Urmas Hõbepappel

This report analyses the Taiwan Strait as a structurally escalating security flashpoint. Since 2022, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has intensified military pressure around Taiwan through large-scale exercises, grey-zone coercion, air and maritime incursions, and efforts to normalise a heightened military presence in the Strait. These developments are embedded in a broader systemic rivalry between Washington and Beijing, which increasingly defines global geopolitics.

The experience of recent years illustrates a persistent challenge in European security debates: warnings emerging from the geographic front line are not always fully integrated into broader strategic thinking. The lesson of 2022 was that the countries closest to Russia often had the clearest view of the threat.

Over the past few years, there has been much talk about an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait.