Varshika Prasanna

For decades, steady jobs were safe while entrepreneurs gambled. The corporate ladder offered a predictable path with a paycheck, title, and a sense of progress. Building something from scratch was a wager most people were unwilling to make. That calculus is shifting. In the AI era, the perceived security of traditional employment is eroding as the cost of entrepreneurship has been falling. What once looked safe is becoming risky. The cost of starting a business has declined in three distinct waves.

By: Nicholas Grous and Varshika Prasanna Shopify is down after earnings despite reporting stellar results, with gross merchandise value (GMV) surpassing $100 billion and growing 35% year-over-year alongside revenue growth of 34% year-over-year. While the market is focused on their revenue guide for the next quarter, we are focused on the long-term story. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

In a world where trust in information is breaking down, prediction markets offer a model for truth discovery backed by capital, not opinion. Beyond their early traction in sports, we believe predication markets’ real potential will come from their instantiation as the future of financial infrastructure, presenting a potential medium-term opportunity up to ~$5 trillion.