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Articles by Warren Hogan
Battle won. Our budget woes are behind us
The government’s final budget outcome for 2017-18 is a deficit of A$10.1 billion. That’s an extraordinary A$8.1 lower than the May estimate just months ago, and more than A$19 billion lower than when the 2017-18 budget was originally put together the previous May. The deficit, a mere 0.6% of gross domestic product, is the smallest in the run of ten that began in the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The result tells us something important about the Australian economy ten years on from the crisis.
Thanks to APRA, it's about to become harder to get a mortgage. Here's why
Wed Oct 6 Written by Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney On Wednesday the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority wrote to each of Australia’s home lenders asking them to make it just a little bit harder for Australians to get mortgage. The letter, addressed to so-called authorised deposit-taking institutions, asked them to adopt a serviceability buffer “at least 3.0 percentage points over the loan interest rate”.
Thanks to APRA, it's about to become harder to get a mortgage. Here's why
On Wednesday the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority wrote to each of Australia’s home lenders asking them to make it just a little bit harder for Australians to get mortgage. The letter, addressed to so-called authorised deposit-taking institutions, asked them to adopt a serviceability buffer “at least 3.0 percentage points over the loan interest rate”.
The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey
Tue May 14 Written by Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free. That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy[1]. But it will be a challenge.
Gambling on the stock market: are retail investors even playing to win?
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic surge in “mum and dad” retail investors playing stock exchanges across the world. In Australia, retail investors were net buyers of A$9 billion of Australian stocks between late February and mid-May, according to corporate advisory firm Vesparum Capital. In contrast, the professional institutional investors – superannuation funds and the like – were net sellers of A$11 billion of stock.
Eye-wateringly bad, yet rosy: why these budget numbers will get worse
Thursday’s economic statement is the government’s first attempt to quantify the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on government finances and should be treated with caution. The near A$300 billion hit to government finances over two years is, as the treasurer says “eye-watering”, but that forecast is as good as it’s going to get. In all likelihood the impact of the virus on the economy and government finances will be much worse.
Australian household wealth has taken its biggest dive since the GFC, but things are looking up
Fri Jun 28 Written by Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms household wealth has fallen, on the back of falling house prices, in the past year. But it’s not all bad news. There are signs of hope in the portents for the next six months. During the first quarter of this year, the net worth of all Australian households rose 0.2% to A$10.2 trillion.
Frydenberg's three-stage economic recovery is abominably hard to get right
Gone are the days when economic policy was adjusted once each year by the government in the budget and fine-tuned once each month at meetings of the Reserve Bank board. The coroanvirus means we haven’t had a budget in more than a year. What the Reserve Bank has done to interest rates means its monthly board meetings matter less. Governor Philip Lowe reaffirmed this week that monetary policy was on hold for the foreseeable future.
Expect tax cuts and an emptying of the cupboards in a budget cleanout as the billions roll in
It has been just over three months since the December budget update[1] but once again the government has been gifted a windfall of unexpected revenues, despite a raft of economic data suggesting the economy has slowed its rate of growth. This is because the things that really matter to the budget have all done better than was expected by the Treasury just months ago.
Iron ore dollars repurposed to keep the economy afloat in Budget 2019
Tue Apr 2 Written by Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney A weaker domestic economy has cost the budget A$15 billion over the next four years, but booming international commodity markets are more than offsetting this. The net result is a budget that will remain comfortably in surplus for the next four years, assuming the economic situation improves rather than disappoints.
Australia’s populist moment has arrived
This is part of a major series called Advancing Australia, in which leading academics examine the key issues facing Australia in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election and beyond. Read the other pieces in the series here.[1] Populism is driven by the view that everyday people are suffering economic hardship as the corporate and political elites prosper. A sense of rising inequality and injustice is the foundation stone of populist rhetoric.
are retail investors even playing to win?
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a dramatic surge[1] in “mum and dad” retail investors playing stock exchanges across the world. In Australia, retail investors were net buyers of A$9 billion of Australian stocks between late February and mid-May, according to corporate advisory firm Vesparum Capital[2]. In contrast, the professional institutional investors – superannuation funds and the like – were net sellers of A$11 billion of stock.
Mais que s'est-il passé sur le marché du pétrole ?
Nous venons d’assister à un effondrement des prix du pétrole sans précédent, ce qui a entraîné les prix en territoire négatif le 20 avril. Le prix au comptant du West Texas Intermediate (WTI), le type de pétrole utilisé comme standard dans la fixation du prix du brut, a ainsi atteint moins 40,32 dollars américains le baril.
What just happened to the price of oil?
Energy There is no guarantee the problems of storage evident in the US won’t spread to other markets By Christina Nikitopoulos, Warren Hogan Last Updated: Tuesday 21 April 2020 We have just witnessed an oil price crash like never before taking prices of West Texas Intermediate into deeply negative territory.
What just happened to the price of oil?
We have just witnessed an oil price crash like never before taking prices of West Texas Intermediate into deeply negative territory. The spot price of West Texas, the US benchmark, reached minus US$40.32 a barrel and the May futures price (which is deliverable in a physical form) went to minus US$37.63 a barrel, the lowest price in the history of oil futures contracts. There has been no better indicator of the extent of the economic impacts of coronavirus.
We’re staring down the barrel of a technical recession as the coronavirus enters a new and dangerous phase
This week marks a new phase in the coronavirus crisis with the case count outside China accelerating sharply. China’s containment strategy bought global health authorities time to prepare, but failed to confine the outbreak to North-East Asia. In the past week both President Trump and Prime Minister Morrison have prepared citizens for a rise in the onshore case count in recognition of the likelihood the virus will spread to most of the world.
Technical recession looms, as coronavirus enters dangerous phase
March 2 (UPI) -- This week marks a new phase in the coronavirus crisis with the case count outside China accelerating sharply. China's containment strategy bought global health authorities time to prepare, but failed to confine the outbreak to Northeast Asia. In the past week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison have prepared citizens for a rise in the onshore case count in recognition of the likelihood the virus will spread to most of the world.
We're staring down the barrel of a technical recession as the coronavirus enters a new and dangerous phase
This week marks a new phase in the coronavirus crisis with the case count outside China accelerating sharply. China’s containment strategy bought global health authorities time to prepare, but failed to confine the outbreak to North-East Asia. In the past week both President Trump and Prime Minister Morrison have prepared citizens for a rise in the onshore case count in recognition of the likelihood the virus will spread to most of the world.
We're staring down the barrel of a technical recession as the COVID-19 coronavirus enters a new and dangerous phase
This week marks a new phase in the coronavirus crisis with the case count outside China accelerating sharply. China’s containment strategy bought global health authorities time to prepare, but failed to confine the outbreak to North-East Asia. In the past week both President Trump and Prime Minister Morrison have prepared citizens for a rise in the onshore case count in recognition of the likelihood the virus will spread to most of the world.
The big budget question is why the surplus wasn’t big
The budget was for practical purposes in neither deficit nor in surplus in 2018-19, the final figures released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann on Thursday reveal. The underlying cash deficit was just A$690 million, which, on the scale of Commonwealth budgets, is close to nothing: 0.0% of GDP.
The big budget question is why the surplus wasn't big
The budget was for practical purposes in neither deficit nor in surplus in 2018-19, the final figures released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann on Thursday reveal. The underlying cash deficit was just A$690 million, which, on the scale of Commonwealth budgets, is close to nothing: 0.0% of GDP.
The new banking code looks impressive, but what will it achieve?
On July 1, the banking industry got yet another code of conduct – its fifth since 1993 – and although it is voluntary, all of the retail banks have signed up. In the promotional video, Australian Banking Association chairman Shayne Elliott describes it as “a step”, acknowledging that there is a lot of work to do. “In and of itself it won’t restore trust, but it will absolutely help. It’s about the industry saying: Hey this is what we stand for. This is how we are going to live our lives.
The new banking code looks impressive, but what will it achieve?
On July 1, the banking industry got yet another code of conduct – its fifth since 1993 – and although it is voluntary, all of the retail banks have signed up. In the promotional video, Australian Banking Association chairman Shayne Elliott describes it as “a step”, acknowledging that there is a lot of work to do. In and of itself it won’t restore trust, but it will absolutely help.
Monday's MYEFO will look good, but it will set the budget up for awful trouble down the track
An appallingly perfect storm is brewing for the federal budget: a government with much more income than expected a federal election due within months a government well behind in the polls With the election all but announced for May, next Monday’s Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) will be the effective start of the campaign. The latest figures put the government’s budget position about A$10 billion better than was expected[1] when it was delivered last May.
Australian household wealth has taken its biggest dive since the GFC, but things are looking up
The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms household wealth has fallen, on the back of falling house prices, in the past year. But it’s not all bad news. There are signs of hope in the portents for the next six months. During the first quarter of this year, the net worth of all Australian households rose 0.2% to A$10.2 trillion. Total household net worth in March 2019 was 0.7% lower than in March 2018, largely because of steep falls over the final six months of 2018.
Cutting interest rates is just the start. It's about to become much, much easier to borrow
Australia’s lowest ever Reserve Bank cash rate – 1.5% – is about to be consigned to history. On Tuesday Governor Philip Lowe made it clear he plans to cut it in two weeks’ time. The money market cash rate (from which all other rates derive) will then fall to 1.25%. After that, if betting in the market is right, he will cut the cash rate to just 1% by Christmas.
The big budget question is why the surplus wasn't big
The budget was for practical purposes in neither deficit nor in surplus in 2018-19, the final figures released by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann on Thursday reveal. The underlying cash deficit was just A$690 million[1], which, on the scale of Commonwealth budgets, is close to nothing: 0.0% of GDP.
Cutting interest rates is just the start. It's about to become much, much easier to borrow
Wed May 22 Australia’s lowest ever Reserve Bank cash rate – 1.5% – is about to be consigned to history. On Tuesday Governor Philip Lowe made it clear he plans to cut it in two weeks’ time. The money market cash rate (from which all other rates derive) will then fall to 1.25%. After that, if betting in the market is right, he will cut the cash rate to just 1% by Christmas.
The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey
Warren Hogan | 20 May 2019 GUEST OBSERVATION If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free. That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. But it will be a challenge.
Survive and thrive mentality sustains SMEs
With a potential change in government looming over the heads of small-to-medium enterprises across the country, many are taking a keen interest to see how the result will impact their operations.
The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey
If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free. That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. But it will be a challenge.
Why the Reserve Bank shouldn't (but might) cut interest rates on Tuesday
Unbelievably, given that he hasn’t moved interest rates once during his entire 33 months as governor, financial markets have Reserve Bank chief Philip Lowe odds on favourite to cut them on Tuesday, just a week and a half before we vote. What they might be missing is that during an election campaign, a case to adjust rates isn’t enough. The case to wait must be weak as well. Adjusting rates during a campaign can be seen as interfering with the democratic process.
Iron ore dollars repurposed to keep the economy afloat in budget 2019
A weaker domestic economy has cost the budget A$15 billion over the next four years, but booming international commodity markets are more than offsetting this. The net result is a budget that will remain comfortably in surplus for the next four years, assuming the economic situation improves rather than disappoints. Much lower payments on a range of different programs have also given the government some extra money to play with.
Iron ore dollars re-purposed to keep the economy afloat in budget 2019
A weaker domestic economy has cost the budget A$15 billion over the next four years, but booming international commodity markets are more than offsetting this. The net result is a budget that will remain comfortably in surplus for the next four years, assuming the economic situation improves, rather than disappoints. Much lower payments on a range of different programs have also given the government some extra money to play with.
Why the Reserve Bank shouldn't (but might) cut interest rates on Tuesday
Unbelievably, given that he hasn’t moved interest rates once during his entire 33 months as governor, financial markets have Reserve Bank chief Philip Lowe odds on favourite to cut them on Tuesday, just a week and a half before we vote. What they might be missing is that during an election campaign, a case to adjust rates isn’t enough. The case to wait must be weak as well. Adjusting rates during a campaign can be seen as interfering with the democratic process.
Expect tax cuts and an emptying of the cupboards in a budget cleanout as the billions roll in
Warren Hogan | 27 March 2019 Prime Minister Morrison and Treasurer Frydenberg will do their best to leave the cupboard bare next Tuesday while still delivering a budget surplus in 2019-20. It has been just over three months since the December budget update but once again the government has been gifted a windfall of unexpected revenues, despite a raft of economic data suggesting the economy has slowed its rate of growth.
Expect tax cuts and an emptying of the cupboards in a budget cleanout as the billions roll in
It has been just over three months since the December budget update but once again the government has been gifted a windfall of unexpected revenues, despite a raft of economic data suggesting the economy has slowed its rate of growth. This is because the things that really matter to the budget have all done better than was expected by the Treasury just months ago.
Australia’s populist moment has arrived: Warren Hogan
Warren Hogan | 28 February 2019 GUEST OBSERVATION Populism is driven by the view that everyday people are suffering economic hardship as the corporate and political elites prosper. A sense of rising inequality and injustice is the foundation stone of populist rhetoric. In Australia, the financial services royal commission has lent credence to these concerns across a large part of the Australian community.
Australia’s populist moment has arrived
This is part of a major series called Advancing Australia, in which leading academics examine the key issues facing Australia in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election and beyond. Populism is driven by the view that everyday people are suffering economic hardship as the corporate and political elites prosper. A sense of rising inequality and injustice is the foundation stone of populist rhetoric.
Monday's MYEFO will look good, but it will set the budget up for awful trouble down the track
An appallingly perfect storm is brewing for the federal budget: a government with much more income than expected a federal election due within months a government well behind in the polls With the election all but announced for May, next Monday’s Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) will be the effective start of the campaign. The latest figures put the government’s budget position about A$10 billion better than was expected when it was delivered last May.
A tip for bankers ahead of the royal commission: be more like doctors
GUEST OBSERVATION The financial services royal commission resumes for its final round of hearings on Monday, and reappearing before Justice Hayne will be the chief executives each of the big six institutions he has in his sights: the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, AMP, Macquarie, ANZ, and the National Australia Bank.
A tip for bankers ahead of the royal commission: be more like doctors
The financial services royal commission resumes for its final round of hearings on Monday, and reappearing before Justice Hayne will be the chief executives each of the big six institutions he has in his sights: the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, AMP, Macquarie, ANZ, and the National Australia Bank.
Battle won. Our budget woes are behind us
The government’s final budget outcome for 2017-18 is a deficit of A$10.1 billion. That’s an extraordinary A$8.1 lower than the May estimate just months ago, and more than A$19 billion lower than when the 2017-18 budget was originally put together the previous May. The deficit, a mere 0.6% of gross domestic product, is the smallest in the run of ten that began in the global financial crisis of 2008-09. The result tells us something important about the Australian economy ten years on from the crisis.
WARREN HOGAN: The budget reflects a government keeping its house in order, and that should help the economy
The three key takeaways from this budget are that the economy is on a much stronger footing than what many had thought, that federal government finances are in better shape than many thought, and that the government has a much better chance at winning the next election than the polls indicate. This is in the context of rising consumer and business confidence and a robust global economy.
WARREN HOGAN: Scott Morrison's numbers look solid, and avoid the temptation of a pre-election splurge
As has been the case in recent years, the Government’s economic forecasts are conservative and appropriate. There are no material changes from the mid year update last December, and the forecasts for the next two years are very similar those the RBA presented just last Friday in the Statement on Monetary Policy.
A tip for bankers ahead of the royal commission: be more like doctors
The financial services royal commission resumes for its final round of hearings[1] on Monday, and reappearing before Justice Hayne will be the chief executives each of the big six institutions he has in his sights: the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, AMP, Macquarie, ANZ, and the National Australia Bank.
We're staring down the barrel of a technical recession as the coronavirus enters a new and dangerous phase
This week marks a new phase in the coronavirus crisis with the case count outside China accelerating sharply. China’s containment strategy bought global health authorities time to prepare, but failed to confine the outbreak to North-East Asia. In the past week both President Trump and Prime Minister Morrison have prepared citizens for a rise in the onshore case count in recognition of the likelihood the virus will spread to most of the world.
WARREN HOGAN: Political gridlock is now a real risk to Australia's economic outlook
No matter what the eventual outcome of the federal election, Australia’s political leadership has been damaged. At best we will see a return of a Coalition government with a slim majority and a much diminished leader in Malcolm Turnbull. At worst there will be a minority Labor government held together by minor players with little economic policymaking experience. A divided Senate seems assured.
Why Gold Will See $2,000
The income effect implies that consumer purchasing power increases as real wages rise, and as such, the demand for gold will increase as more people can afford to buy it. In Asia over the past few decades, the income effect has been dominant. The Asian economies (particularly China and India) have enjoyed strong growth, but still have a relatively tightly regulated and narrow financial system.
WARREN HOGAN: The budget strategy now rests on the spending of Australian households
The Budget night routine is becoming all too familiar. Lots of rhetoric, a few policy tweaks here and there but ultimately not much that is likely to move the dial on the economy, or the government’s financial position. This year was no different. The realists will say a modest $3.4bn deterioration in the 2016/17 budget projection from the mid-year update is a pretty good outcome just a few months out from an election.
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