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Articles by Alexander Graef
Europa fürchtet den Krieg – aber will Putin nicht etwas ganz anderes?
Politik Ausland Meinung Europa fürchtet den Krieg – aber will Putin nicht etwas ganz anderes? von Alexander Graef 28. April 2025 18:06 Uhr 5 Min Mal droht er, mal unterbreitet er Angebote: Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin © IMAGO/Sergei Ilyin / Imago Images Droht der Nato ein Angriff durch Russland? So skrupellos Wladimir Putin auch ist – der Westen, sagt unser Gastautor, übersieht ein wichtiges Detail bei der Bewertung.
Special Tribunal for Russia’s Aggression is Taking Shape – Riddle Russia
The establishment of a special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine has entered a decisive phase. Officials of the Council of Europe and the European Union announced that the group of states supporting the tribunal initiative (the so-called Core Group, comprising 41 states in total) has made a principal decision to move forward with creating the special tribunal.
Aufrüstung in Deutschland: Reden wir über Eskalationskontrolle!
Ausgabe September 2024 Bild: Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius neben Oberst Sammy Mbassa bei seinem Besuch im Fliegerhorst in Büchel, 18.7.2024 (IMAGO / Panama Pictures) Die gemeinsame deutsch-amerikanische Erklärung am Rande des Nato-Gipfels Anfang Juli 2024 hatte es in sich.
Missiles on the move: Why US long-range missiles in Germany are just the tip of the iceberg
On July 10, during the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., the US and German governments announced a plan to deploy US long-range missiles in Germany by 2026. The announcement, which caught many members of the German parliament off guard and sparked a public debate about its potential consequences, prompted criticism of the government’s lack of communication and concerns about escalation risks.
Anything but routine
Arguably the most surprising news to come out of last week's NATO summit: In four short sentences, the US, together with the German government, announced its intention to station American land-based medium-range missiles in Germany by 2026. The joint declaration reads as concisely as if it were a routine act. But this step will actually have far-reaching consequences in terms of security policy. It is indicative of the lack of a serious strategic debate in Germany.
Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland: Wo bleibt die Strategiedebatte?
Es war wohl die überraschendste Nachricht des NATO-Gipfels in der vergangenen Woche: In vier kurzen Sätzen verkündeten die USA gemeinsam mit der Bundesregierung, bis 2026 amerikanische, landgestützte Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland zu stationieren. Die gemeinsame Erklärung liest sich so knapp, als handele es sich um einen Routineakt. Tatsächlich wird der Schritt weitreichende sicherheitspolitische Konsequenzen haben.
The CFE Treaty’s Demise and the OSCE: Time to Think Anew?
NATO members announced last month that they were suspending the 1990 landmark Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE-Treaty) for “as long as necessary.” The official statement linked the decision to Russia’s withdrawal and its war against Ukraine, but the treaty has been outdated for more than two decades. Eventually, it was the continued and increasingly problematic membership of Belarus, which created legal and security tradeoffs for NATO, that tipped the balance toward suspension.
Why the West Should Stick with Conventional Arms Control in Europe for Now
Home / Articles / Why the West Should Stick with Conventional Arms Control in Europe for Now After Russia’s withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Arms Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) formally enters into force on November 7, 2023, the remaining twenty-nine member states need to decide whether they want to keep the Treaty or dissolve it for good.
How the Russia-Ukraine war could end - four scenarios examined
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin - MANDEL NGAN,MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images A year ago, I sketched out four scenarios detailing how Putin’s war against Ukraine might end. Unsurprisingly, none of them has materialised in pure form but one thing is clear now: Ukraine has not collapsed. A full Russian victory – the total seizure of Ukrainian territory and regime change in Kyiv – is now almost certainly out of reach.
A Confidence-Building Defense for NATO
NATO knows what it needs to do at the upcoming Madrid Summit, but it still does not know how. The alliance is determined to strengthen conventional deterrence on its eastern front and soon its northern flank.
A Letter from Moscow: (In)divisible Security and Helsinki 2.0
A Russian letter recently darkened Europe’s door. In it, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the alliance’s understanding and use of a principle known as “indivisible security.” You would be forgiven for having never heard of that niche term that emerged from a conference in Helsinki in the 1970s (more on that later), but Lavrov does have a point. It comes down to contrasting interpretations of what this term means in Western capitals versus in Moscow.
Is There a Future for Open Skies Without Russia?
Without Moscow’s participation, the treaty loses its rationale. NATO members could start conducting flights over each other’s territory or shift their flight quotas to non-NATO state parties, but in both cases, the treaty would be reduced to a symbolic function. With U.S. President Joe Biden now in the White House, tensions between the United States and Russia are likely to grow.
The Rise and Fall of Cooperative Arms Control in Europe
In this comprehensive and ambitious book, which is based on the author’s dissertation at the University of Hamburg, Ulrich Kühn sets out to explain the decay of US-Soviet/Russian cooperative arms control in Europe over a period of more than four decades. After introducing the reader to the subject, he starts by developing a “realist model for understanding international cooperation” in chapter 2 (p. 65).
The End of the Open Skies Treaty and the Politics of Compliance
On May 22, the Trump administration notified the remaining state parties that the United States would withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. The treaty has been in force since January 2002 and allows its 34 members to conduct joint, unarmed observation flights over each other’s territory using sensors with a predefined resolution. The U.S. withdrawal will come into effect in November.
The End of the Open Skies Treaty and the Politics of Compliance
On May 22, the Trump administration notified the remaining state parties that the United States would withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty. The treaty has been in force since January 2002 and allows its 34 members to conduct joint, unarmed observation flights over each other’s territory using sensors with a predefined resolution. The U.S. withdrawal will come into effect in November.
„Open Skies“-Vertrag: Haltet den Himmel offen!
Der „Vertrag über den Offenen Himmel“ ist ein multilateraler Vertrag zwischen heute 34 Mitgliedsstaaten in Nordamerika und Europa. Seit 2002 ermöglicht er es, unbewaffnete Beobachtungsflüge nach vorher festgelegten Quoten über das gesamte Staatsgebiet aller Teilnehmer durchzuführen. Ziel ist es, vor allem militärische Veränderungen zu beobachten. Seit Herbst 2019 wird in den Vereinigten Staaten jedoch über einen Austritt diskutiert.
Same-Same but different: The Evolving Qualitative Arms Race
During the Cold War, an ever-increasing quantity of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles determined the strategic parameters of international security. In the 30 years since then, the global nuclear stockpiles have been reduced gradually. This process has, at least for the time being, come to an end with the New START treaty on deployed strategic nuclear weapons. It was signed by the US and Russia in April 2010.
Getting Deterrence Right on NATO’s Eastern Flank
Poland won’t exactly be getting the “Fort Trump” it wanted. But NATO’s robust force posture in the East, like Russia’s, still risks being misinterpreted. On June 12th, the Polish government finally secured its long-sought after joint declaration with Washington on enhancing the US military presence in Poland. As part of the intensive lobbying process leading up to the declaration, Polish President Andrzej Duda had even jokingly offered to name the prospective installation “Fort Trump”.
Nukleare Rüstungskontrolle in der Sackgasse
Für die Sicherheitsfrage bedeutsam ist, ob es sich bei der SSC-8 tatsächlich um einen neu entwickelten, bodengestützten Marschflugkörper handelt, oder ob Russland lediglich einen grundsätzlich INF-konformen seegestützten Marschflugkörper "falsch" getestet hat. Moskau bestreitet beides und verlangt öffentliche Beweise. Washington hat diese mit dem Hinweis auf den Schutz von Quellen und Informanten bisher abgelehnt.
Russland hat das Recht, Geopolitik zu betreiben
Häufig wird der Eindruck erweckt, als handele es sich beim Konflikt mit Russland um eine existenzielle Auseinandersetzung. Gleichzeitig werden diejenigen, die sich um einen Ausgleich der geopolitischen Interessen bemühen, als "Putinversteher" gebrandmarkt.Diese Strategie ist im Hinblick auf innenpolitische Erwägungen noch nachvollziehbar. Im Feld der Außenpolitik übersieht sie jedoch die Vielschichtigkeit der Lage.
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