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Articles by Asfandyar Mir
Pakistan Won the War in Iran
On April 7, as the deadline approached for U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to the Iranian government to open the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of “a whole civilization,” a Pakistani general placed a phone call that helped avert disaster. Field Marshal Asim Munir—the chief of Pakistan’s army, the country’s most powerful institution—pressed Trump and Iran’s surviving leadership to stop the war. Within hours, Washington and Tehran announced a cease-fire.
Pakistan Won the War in Iran
World News 1 hour ago The renewed US-Iran conflict is escalating and threatening to spin out of control CNN - Tim Lister • 1h Over the past week, the conflict between the United States and Iran has gone from a simmering tit-for-tat to something that much more resembles all-out war. US President Donald Trump last week threatened to broaden the war unless Iran stops attacking ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era
When India and Pakistan clash, the world too often dismisses it wearily as just another flare-up of age-old animosities over religion and Kashmir punctuated by inconclusive cross-border skirmishes. As President Trump recently put it — inaccurately — “They’ve had that fight for a thousand years in Kashmir”, and “probably longer than that”. This is somewhat understandable.
Modi’s Washington Visit Signals U.S.-India Ties Will Continue Upswing
Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington marked the fourth meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and a foreign leader since the start of the new administration. Despite differences over tariffs, Modi’s trip signaled that U.S.-Indian relations will continue along the positive trajectory seen in recent years, particularly in defense and technology cooperation.
Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy? Original
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy. After assuming power earlier this year, Pakistan’s new coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had approached the IMF for the 25th time for a loan. On September 12, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country had met all the conditions set by the IMF to qualify for a new loan.
How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?
Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government.
Asfandyar Mir on Balancing Counterterrorism and Strategic Competition
U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124. Transcript Laura Coates: We're joined now by Dr. Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert in the South Asia program at the United States Institute of Peace.
Nationalism, Status, and Conspiracy Theories: Evidence from Pakistan
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 17 May 2024 Show author details Keywords nationalismPakistanmisinformationethnicitysurvey experiment Type Article Information British Journal of Political Science , First View , pp.
Moscow Concert Hall Attack Will Have Far-Reaching Impact
USIP experts Mary Glantz, Gavin Helf, Asfandyar Mir and Andrew Watkins examine ISIS’ motivations to strike Russia, the Central Asian angle to the attacks, the impact of these attacks on the Taliban and implications for U.S. interests. Mir: ISIS-K hasn’t explicitly accepted responsibility for the attack as yet — only ISIS core in the Middle East has, without indicating which regional branch carried out the attack.
America Can’t Isolate the Taliban
At a ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in late January, Chinese President Xi Jinping accepted the credentials of the Taliban’s newly appointed Afghan ambassador to China. Although the step did not amount to formal recognition of the Taliban, Xi’s upgrade of relations marks the most significant challenge to a United States-led consensus against normalization with the Afghan regime.
What to expect from Pakistan's Feb. 8 elections, after all the drama.
Pakistan is set to vote on Feb. 8, 2024. These elections take place in the context of numerous military, intelligence, and law enforcement actions seemingly designed to weaken the ability of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) to compete (see recent New York Times, Guardian, and Al Jazeera reports for a sampling of the allegations). The PTI was founded by former Pakistani cricket star Imran Khan, who served as Pakistan’s prime minister from 2018 to 2022.
Pakistan’s Twin Crises
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Get a link Page url Request Reprint Permissions Pakistan is beset by twin crises. An economic meltdown, underway for several years, has metastasized into a full-blown balance of payments emergency.
After al-Zawahiri’s Killing, What’s Next for the U.S. in Afghanistan?
USIP’s Asfandyar Mir, Andrew Watkins and Kate Bateman discuss al-Zawahiri’s legacy, what his killing tells us about the Taliban and the ramifications for U.S. counterterrorism and Afghanistan policy. What is al-Zawahiri’s legacy? Mir: Ayman al-Zawahiri was routinely downplayed as a terrorist threat by analysts and policymakers, especially compared to his charismatic predecessor Osama bin Laden.
Ayman al-Zawahri Is Gone, but Al Qaeda Is Resilient - The New York Times
Opinion|The Al Qaeda That Ayman al-Zawahri Leaves Behind https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/02/opinion/ayman-al-zawahri-al-qaeda-afghanistan.html Guest Essay Aug. 2, 2022, 1:18 p.m. ET Taliban security in the neighborhood where a U.S. drone strike killed Ayman al-Zawahri in Kabul, Afghanistan, on July 31.Credit...Stringer/EPA, via Shutterstock By Asfandyar Mir Mr. Mir is a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace.
India's Gamble in Afghanistan
Since taking power last summer, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has been isolated internationally; not a single country has yet recognized it. But in recent weeks, Taliban officials have made a series of increasingly public overtures to a once unlikely prospective partner: India. And the interest has been reciprocated, to some extent.
India’s Gamble in Afghanistan
Sign in and save to read later Print this article Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Get a link Request Reprint Permissions Since taking power last summer, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has been isolated internationally; not a single country has yet recognized it. But in recent weeks, Taliban officials have made a series of increasingly public overtures to a once unlikely prospective partner: India. And the interest has been reciprocated, to some extent.
Five Things to Watch in the Islamabad-Pakistani Taliban Talks
Discussions on next steps of the process between Pakistan and the TTP, including on release of more TTP prisoners, continue. Will the talks lead to an enduring political settlement between Pakistan and the TTP? Five factors will determine the trajectory of Pakistan-TTP negotiations. 1. TTP's Demands vs. Pakistan’s Interests Since their onset, the talks remain shrouded in secrecy with Islamabad concealing both the aims of the negotiations as well as what it is willing to offer the TTP.
The Lawfare Podcast: Byman and Mir Debate al-Qaeda
Published by The Lawfare Institute in Cooperation With Asfandyar Mir of the U.S. Institute of Peace and Daniel Byman of Lawfare, Brookings, and Georgetown, are both analysts of al-Qaeda and terrorist groups. They have a different analysis, however, of how al-Qaeda is faring in the current world. Rather than argue about the subject on Twitter, they wrote an article on it, spelling out where they agree and where they disagree, and they joined Benjamin Wittes to talk it all through.
How Strong Is al-Qaeda? A Debate
Sept. 11, 2001, was “The Day the World Changed.” The 2,977 deaths at the hands of al-Qaeda terrorists led to massive policy changes and dominated U.S. politics for years afterward. The United States went to war in Afghanistan to topple the Taliban, and the attacks contributed to the U.S. decision to invade Iraq in 2003.
It's Friday!
Good morning! Every Friday, I spotlight interesting new publications in the general area of MENA Political Science - journal articles, special issues, policy reports, whatever caught my eye.
Assessing al-Qaeda: A Debate
1 “The Day the World Changed,” The Economist, September 15, 2001, https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2001-09-15; picture available at https://coverjunkie.com/cover-categories/best-of-the-rest/economist-9-11/. 2 Bruce Hoffman, “Al-Qaeda’s Resurrection,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 6, 2018, https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/al-qaedas-resurrection.
Pakistan’s Twin Taliban Problem
Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban are teetering on the brink of a major crisis. Since coming into power, the Taliban has defied Pakistan — its main state benefactor during the insurgency against the United States military and the deposed Afghan government.
Pakistan’s Twin Taliban Problem
The Taliban Calculus on the TTP The Taliban has made little effort to conceal their support for the TTP in Afghanistan. But the logic of their support since August 2021 — despite facing several other challenges — remains unclear. Some argue that at the heart of the Taliban-TTP relationship is an ideological alignment on a jihadist project seeking to implement a Shariah-compliant political order through force.
Imran Khan dissolved Pakistan's parliament. How did that happen?
Supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party light up their mobile phones and chant slogans in support of Prime Minister Imran Khan during a rally in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 4, 2022. (Akhtar Soomro/Reuters) Pakistan is in the middle of a major political crisis. Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday blocked a no-confidence vote against him in Pakistan's parliament.
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Dispute Heats Up
In at least two incidents in late December and early January, Afghan Taliban soldiers intervened to block an ongoing Pakistani project to erect fencing along the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan — the demarcation of which prior Afghan governments have never accepted. Despite attempts to resolve the issue diplomatically, and the Taliban’s dependence on Pakistan as a bridge to the international community, both sides remain at odds over the fence.
Opinion | Biden Didn’t See the ISIS-K Threat in Afghanistan Until Too Late
Guest Essay Aug. 31, 2021, 12:00 p.m. ET U.S. Marine Corps with the remains of Sgt. Johanny Rosario Pichardo on Sunday. He was one of 13 U.S. service members killed in a suicide bombing at Kabul airport last week.Credit...Jason Minto/U.S. Air Force, via Getty Images By Asfandyar Mir Mr. Mir is a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace and an affiliate at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation.
Untying the Gordian Knot: Why the Taliban is Unlikely to Break Ties with Al-Qaeda
When the political officer of the US embassy in Islamabad met with top Taliban official Jalaluddin Haqqani in the Pakistani city of Rawalpindi in May 1999, neither the US government nor Haqqani knew that it would be the last major exchange between the two parties before war between them would break out—a long, ongoing war in which Haqqani would emerge as one of America’s most significant nemeses.
Five things to watch as the U.S. prepares to exit Afghanistan
President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan extricates American troops from a complex war but does little to alleviate it. The Taliban is committed to restoring a version of its pre-9/11 emirate and appears uninterested in talks with other Afghans. Riven with infighting and corruption, the Afghan government is unable to put political pressure on the Taliban to negotiate peace. Given the intra-Afghan deadlock and the imminent U.S. withdrawal, what happens now?
Analysis | Five things to watch as the U.S. prepares to exit Afghanistan
President Biden’s decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan extricates American troops from a complex war but does little to alleviate it. The Taliban is committed to restoring a version of its pre-9/11 emirate and appears uninterested in talks with other Afghans. Riven with infighting and corruption, the Afghan government is unable to put political pressure on the Taliban to negotiate peace. Given the intra-Afghan deadlock and the imminent U.S. withdrawal, what happens now?
Opinion | Biden’s Next Afghanistan Challenge: How to Police It From Outside Original
But Afghanistan represents a new challenge, and it won’t be simple—or cheap—to build the kind of remote counterterror operation the pullout will require. It’s a landlocked country in a neighborhood dominated by America’s adversaries, and although the U.S. still has allies inside Afghanistan, such as its armed forces, those allies are constrained in operating without significant U.S. assistance.
Making Sense of Iran and al-Qaeda’s Relationship
Editor’s Note: Al-Qaeda and Iran are strange bedfellows. Iran’s allies and proxies are often at war with al-Qaeda affiliates, but at the same time Iran hosts senior al-Qaeda leaders. Colin Clarke of The Soufan Group and Stanford’s Asfandyar Mir unpack this odd relationship, tracing its history and identifying the advantages for Tehran and al-Qaeda.
Making Sense of Iran and al-Qaeda’s Relationship
Editor’s Note: Al-Qaeda and Iran are strange bedfellows. Iran’s allies and proxies are often at war with al-Qaeda affiliates, but at the same time Iran hosts senior al-Qaeda leaders. Colin Clarke of The Soufan Group and Stanford’s Asfandyar Mir unpack this odd relationship, tracing its history and identifying the advantages for Tehran and al-Qaeda.
Biden’s Afghanistan Decision
Guest post by Asfandyar Mir President Biden has inherited America’s longest war—the war in Afghanistan—at a critical moment. Under the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban, the US government is supposed to withdraw forces from the country by May 2021. But the Taliban hasn’t taken the steps required in the deal against international terrorists, like Al Qaeda. Intra-Afghan power-sharing talks have not made much headway.
What will America's commitment to Afghanistan look like after the election?
Although we did not hear about the war in Afghanistan during the presidential debates, the presidential election is a big moment for Afghanistan. Despite the U.S.-Taliban deal to end America's longest war, signed in Doha, Qatar, in February, conflict in Afghanistan hasn't receded. Recent attacks by Taliban fighters across the country appear aimed at pressuring the U.S. and Afghan governments.
Analysis | What will America’s commitment to Afghanistan look like after the election?
Although we did not hear about the war in Afghanistan during the presidential debates, the presidential election is a big moment for Afghanistan. Despite the U.S.-Taliban deal to end America’s longest war, signed in Doha, Qatar, in February, conflict in Afghanistan hasn’t receded. Recent attacks by Taliban fighters across the country appear aimed at pressuring the U.S. and Afghan governments.
Lithuania hands in note to Minsk over Astravyets NPP
"Lithuania categorically objects to such a hasty launch. The protest note to Belarus was sent today (Tuesday – BNS) already," Skaisgiryte told journalists following President Gitanas Nauseda's meeting with several ministers. Lithuania's power transmission system operator Litgrid said on Monday it had been informed by Belarusian operator Belenergo that power production at the Astravyets nuclear power plant would be launched on November 1-10.
Scientists: strict lockdown might be necessary as early as November
Scientists point to the fact that uncontrollable infection hotspots dominate in the country, therefore, the spread of the virus might even exceed the pessimistic projections.
413 new coronavirus cases
At the moment 6844 cases are still active. 141 people have already died from COVID-19 in Lithuania. 48 other infected people died from other reasons. Since 1st of June, 391 imported coronavirus cases have been recorded. Lithuania has already made 964352 tests, 9390 - on Monday.
Football and basketball officials say ban on fans in stadiums understandable
BNS Tuesday, October 27, 2020 aA Lithuania's top football and basketball officials say the government's planned ban on fans in stadiums is understandable because ensuring the safety of players and spectators is key. © DELFI / Josvydas Elinskas Mindaugas Spokas, secretary general of the Lithuanian Basketball Federation, has described the planned measure as "logical and understandable". "The government makes decisions to protect people.
Al Qaeda's Franchise Reboot
An Aging Jihadi Brand Still Inspires the Next Generation Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaeda still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. But very few experts on Salafi-jihadi movements would dismiss the group outright.
Al Qaeda’s Leader Is Old, Bumbling—and a Terrorist Mastermind
Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. In part that’s because the United States hasn’t cared enough to focus attention on him.
Is al Qaida Still a Threat?
Previous Blog PostCan Workers' Compensation Help Businesses Reopen More Safely? commentary (Foreign Affairs) A man wearing a t-shirt with an image of Zakir Rashid Bhat, the leader of an al Qaeda affiliated militant group in Kashmir, in Dadasara, Kashmir, May 24, 2019 Photo by Danish Ismail/Reuters Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security?
Al Qaeda’s Franchise Reboot
Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaeda still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. But very few experts on Salafi-jihadi movements would dismiss the group outright.
Is the TTP resurging? Some angles on the trajectory and internal politics of the TTP. 1/n Formed in 2007, TTP remains one of the most lethal…
Is the TTP resurging? Some angles on the trajectory and internal politics of the TTP. 1/n Formed in 2007, TTP remains one of the most lethal center-seeking insurgent movements in Pakistan. It functioned as al-Qaida's paramilitary in Af-Pak; it hosted al-Qaida central & supported its int'l terror campaign from Pakistan; it is also allied with the Afghan Taliban. From 2010 to 2016, TTP steadily declined in organizational capital, manpower, & territory.
Analysis | Why didn’t the U.S. rebuke Russia for its Taliban bounty deal? Four things to know.
President Trump is in the middle of another controversy involving Russia. A New York Times article on June 26 revealed Trump was informed in March that Russia offered bounties to the Taliban to kill U.S. personnel in Afghanistan, and reportedly the president ignored the matter. Trump insists he was never briefed on it, and Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Saturday said that intelligence officials had not briefed the president.
Where is Ayman al-Zawahiri?
Despite being hunted by the US government since the 1990s, the chief of al-Qaida Ayman al-Zawahiri remains at large. The US government offers a massive reward for information on his whereabouts: $25 million - the highest for any terrorist in the world.
What Explains Counterterrorism Effectiveness? Evidence from the U.S. Drone War in Pakistan
The U.S. government is waging counterterrorism campaigns against al-Qaida, the Islamic State, and their affiliates in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.1 Many analysts, practitioners, and scholars have long been skeptical of the battlefield effectiveness of this effort, however, arguing that it offers short-term tactical gains at best and is counterproductive at worst.2 One camp, which I call the “civilian-centric camp,” argues that the alienation of civilians produced during...
Analysis | With two American soldiers dead in Iraq, how will the U.S. respond?
On Wednesday night, U.S.-led coalition forces based out of the Camp Taji north of Baghdad came under intense rocket fire. The attack killed three coalition personnel, two American and one British. It also injured nearly a dozen more personnel. While rocket fire on U.S. military bases in Iraq is not new, this attack is the first time U.S. personnel have been killed by suspected Iranian-backed Iraqi groups since the United States killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani in early January.
Asfandyar Mir: Are US troop pullouts from Afghanistan up ahead?
Last Friday, the U.S. government announced a two-step peace deal with the insurgent Afghan Taliban. In the first step, the United States and the Taliban will substantially “reduce violence” against each other across Afghanistan for seven days.
Analysis | The U.S. may be close to a peace deal in Afghanistan. Here are 3 big takeaways.
Last Friday, the U.S. government announced a two-step peace deal with the insurgent Afghan Taliban. In the first step, the U.S. and the Afghan Taliban will substantially “reduce violence” against each other across Afghanistan for seven days.
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