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Barbara Mellers on Muck Rack

Barbara Mellers

As seen in: The Washington Post, PNAS, SAGE Publishing, Science Magazine, The Regulatory Review, International Journal of Forecasting, Resoundingly Human
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Articles

Moving Mountains

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By Barbara Mellers
| The Regulatory Review
Howard’s extraordinary empathy and action had a profound influence on my life. We all know that Howard Kunreuther was a creative and prolific economist whose psychological insights enriched our thinking about many facets of risk. He understood uniquely how people could cope with losses from technological threats and natural hazards like climate change, earthquakes, and floods. But there were other sides to Howard, and I will share a story that reveals one of them.
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Reference-Point Theory: An Account of Individual Differences in Risk Preferences

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By Barbara Mellers, Siyuan Yin
| SAGE Publishing
Risk is ubiquitous, and preferences for risk are central to the social and behavioral sciences. Since von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944), economists have defined risk preferences using choices between sure things and gambles with equal expected value. Decision makers should prefer the option that maximizes their expected utilities, and their response to risk depends on the shape of their utility function. Risk aversion—a preference for the sure thing—implies a concave downward utility function.
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Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting: Quantifying Uncertainty in Hard-to-Quantify Domains

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By Barbara Mellers, John McCoy, Louise J. Lu, Philip E. Tetlock
| SAGE Publishing
Geopolitical Forecasting Is the overall process of making predictions generally similar across domains? Do psychiatrists who predict the well-being of institutionalized patients do essentially the same thing as intelligence analysts who predict political crises? In both cases, humans play an indispensable role in distilling diverse, hard-to-quantify cues from the environment and translating their hunches into probabilities.
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