Bret Jensen
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Articles by Bret Jensen
Credit Markets Send Financial Warning Despite Index All-Time Highs
Investors got a rare bright economic reading during this summer on Friday. The August BLS jobs report showed that 162,000 positions were created last month. This was triple expectations. Both June and July employment were revised up as well. The strong labor reading boosted the probability of a 25 BPS rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The central bank probably should boost its primary rate as inflation has been running above its official 2% target for five and a half years now.
NewAmsterdam Pharma: Potential Coupled With Uncertainty
Sep 08, 2026, 10:08 AM ET, , , , , Summary NewAmsterdam Pharma has seen a near 40% stock pullback post-Merck’s Lipfendra approval but retains multi-blockbuster potential with obicetrapib. Obicetrapib, a CETP inhibitor, has shown robust LDL-C lowering and early cardiovascular event reduction, with pivotal PREVAIL CVOT interim data due YE26.
This $26 Billion Biotech Name Is Ripe for a Covered-Call Trade
I am returning to the biotech sector for this weekend’s covered-call trade idea. And I am teeing up a situation I ordinarily wouldn’t touch. And I am targeting a company that will not be profitable for at least a few years. However, this selection is sitting on a massive cash hoard. With covered-call orders, I bring my potential entry point down to the net cash on the balance sheet. The name in question is firm called BioNTech SE (BNTX), which has an approximate market cap of roughly $26 billion.
Interest Rates Will Increasingly Crimp The U.S. Economy
Sep 05, 2026, 6:29 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary Rising interest rates are pressuring key U.S. economic sectors, especially housing, big-ticket consumer goods, and commercial real estate. I remain underweight homebuilders and housing-related equities like Home Depot due to persistent affordability issues and limited prospects for lower mortgage rates.
I’m Staying Plugged Into These Energy Stocks
The conflict with Iran hit the six-month mark last Friday. There is no clear resolution on the horizon. At least one that permanently ends the hostilities in the Middle East. Perhaps after the mid-terms? While traffic has picked up recently going through the Strait of Hormuz, it remains far below its pre-war levels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped below the 300-million-barrel market for the first time since Ronald Reagan’s first term in office.
The Markets Are Waist Deep In Investor Complacency
Sep 03, 2026, 11:36 AM ET, , , , , , , , , Summary Geopolitical turmoil and surging energy prices have created significant headwinds for the global economy and U.S. consumers in 2026. Stubborn inflation and ongoing conflicts have shifted Fed expectations from rate cuts to a likely 25 bps hike at the next FOMC meeting. AI infrastructure investment is the primary driver of U.S. GDP growth, while most other economic engines are sputtering.
Top 2 GARP Stock Picks in a Bifurcated Market
Equities remain bifurcated within this K-shaped economy. Earnings growth has been fantastic so far this year with S&P 500 profits growing over 27% year-over-year in Q1 and roughly 50% in Q2. Of course, this growth comes with numerous caveats. It comes within a U.S. economy that has been growing at less than 2% for the last three quarters. That is much better than what the sclerotic European economy is producing of note.
The AI Infrastructure Buildout Is Hitting Major Roadblocks
Sep 01, 2026, 10:46 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The unprecedented AI infrastructure buildout in the U.S. has been the main driver of equities and the economy in recent years. However, AI data center expansion faces mounting obstacles: intense local opposition, limited electricity and water access, and soaring construction costs.
3 Market Predictions For September
Aug 31, 2026, 3:59 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , Summary August saw significant market volatility, with high-profile investment blowups and record diesel crack spreads amid unresolved Middle East tensions. Earnings growth in the S&P 500 remains robust, led by AI chipmakers like NVIDIA (NVDA), though concerns are rising over NVDA's vendor financing and increasing credit risk.
These Two IPOs Could Decide the Fate of the Market Rally
The markets were up modestly last week with the Nasdaq leading the way with a gain of .9%. It was not a broad-based rally and one that left out the small caps. The Russell 2000 was off just over 1% last week. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, it is more than impressive that this rally has continued as long as it has.
The Iranian War 'Tax' Hits The 6-Month Mark
Aug 31, 2026, 6:44 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The latest Middle East conflict has sharply reduced Gulf oil exports, driving diesel prices and transportation costs significantly higher. This 'tax' on the American economy hit its six-month mark on Friday, and no resolution appears to be on the near-term horizon. AI-driven investment is propping up GDP, but most sectors show minimal growth amid persistent inflation and high-energy costs.
Looking for Cash Flow, Not AI Hype? Here’s the Trade for You.
The AI infrastructure buildout continues to be the primary driver of the markets and the U.S. economy. In the recently revised Q2 GDP estimate, investment tied to AI and construction accounted for 1.2% of the 1.5% projected growth for the quarter. The rest of the economy contributed 0.3% net, even as consumer spending was solid. Inflation remains elevated, the housing market continues to be moribund, and the July BLS jobs report had a negative print with downward revisions for prior months.
Thanks to Salesforce, ServiceNow, the Contrarian SaaS Bet Is Paying Off
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) dominated the financial headlines on Thursday after its big quarterly beat and guidance raise after the bell on Wednesday. The stock rose nearly 9% in trading on Thursday and took the NASDAQ up with it. I don’t hold NVDA, so I was more interested in the quarterly beat and raise from Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) as I have a fairly large covered-call holding in this name. The stock was up over 20% in trading on Thursday. Furthermore, Salesforce’s CEO had plenty to say.
U.S. Economy: The Outlook For Housing Worsens
Aug 28, 2026, 12:32 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The U.S. housing market remains deeply sluggish, with existing home sales at 30-year lows and no recovery in sight. Elevated mortgage rates near 7% and stagnant wage growth have crushed affordability, especially for mid and entry-level buyers. New home builders like LEN and PHM face rising inventories, heavy incentives, and sharply compressed margins.
AI Is Nearly The Only Thing Keeping The U.S. Economy Afloat
Aug 27, 2026, 1:55 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Current market valuations rival the late 1990s but lack broad economic support beyond AI infrastructure spending. Housing and job markets are weak, with housing activity moribund and job growth anemic compared to 1999. Consumer sentiment is near historic lows, with persistent inflation eroding purchasing power and savings rates at multi-decade lows.
AI Bubble Alert: The Rubber Hits The Road In 2027
Aug 26, 2026, 1:56 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The huge surge in capex budgets at the hyperscalers has, to a large part, been driven by what was termed 'vendor financing' back during the Internet boom. As but one example, Oracle has locked in a massive $300B, five-year agreement with OpenAI, driving a surge in capex and debt. Debt has also boomed at the hyperscalers, particularly in off-balance-sheet obligations, which have surged past the $3 trillion mark.
Two Biotechs I’m Buying Amid an Overbought Market
Dick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) became the latest retailer to be hit by a weak American consumer, or at least those households that are not in the top 10% or 20% of the “K”-shaped economy. DKS fell 31% yesterday after posting disappointing Q2 results below the bell on Tuesday and reducing forward guidance. It was the biggest daily loss in the stock’s history.
S&P 500 Earnings Growth Overstated And Bifurcated
Aug 25, 2026, 1:23 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary S&P 500 profit growth is highly concentrated in energy and AI infrastructure, with most other sectors showing significantly weaker fundamentals. Valuations remain at extreme historical levels, raising caution amid tepid GDP growth, weak consumer demand, and potential AI bubble risks. Profit margins are at all-time highs but face significant mean reversion risk, especially as treasury yields rise and cost pressures mount.
More 'Naked Swimmers' Will Continue To Emerge As The Tide Recedes
Aug 24, 2026, 1:52 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Markets continue to trade near record highs even as bond yields have hit their highest levels since 2007 and energy prices remain elevated. Private credit markets are deteriorating, with record default rates and redemption gates at major funds like Apollo (APO) and Blackstone (BX), raising systemic risk.
With September Cool Comes Three Big Concerns
We have a week left before the start of September. I, for one, will be glad to have the dog days of summer in the rear-view mirror as it has been hot and sticky few months here in South Florida. And I hope the Sunshine State can make through the rest of hurricane season without getting walloped this year. That said, September and October have been two of the most challenging months for investors historically. And equities certainly have a very large “wall of worry” to climb these days.
New Disney Price Target After Morgan Stanley Update
Funny story: About a week ago, I was trying to teach my “significant other” some rudimentary technical analysis. I showed her a chart of Disney (DIS). She named the stock. I was not looking to get long Disney, but I did that day. Thank goodness. When trying to spread the good word of financial survival to folks who really had not been very exposed to living life in the markets prior, I always start with technical analysis. Mastering TA is not easy.
Why Macro Trends Matter To Prudent Investors
Aug 23, 2026, 10:00 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The AI infrastructure buildout may support markets short-term, but macro risks threaten equities once this narrative fades. However, outside the huge surge of tech spending powered by the massive AI infrastructure buildout, the global macroeconomic backdrop is not favorable. Rising energy and commodity prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, present headwinds for consumers but benefit energy sector holdings like VLO.
Prelude Therapeutics: A Prognosis After Year-Long Rally
Aug 23, 2026, 5:52 AM ET, , Summary Prelude Therapeutics has rebounded 500% in 12 months after a $60M option deal with Incyte for its JAK2 inhibitor program. PRLD's pipeline is high risk, with six discontinued programs and only early-stage assets remaining, notably PRT12396 and preclinical KAT6A degrader PRT13722. Incyte's option on PRT12396 offers potential validation but is more of an insurance policy for Jakafi, with no near-term revenue impact for PRLD.
Making a Small Bet on an Electric Grid Buildout Play
The AI narrative appears to be weakening a bit in recent weeks. Investors and the financial press are starting to pay more attention on the huge amounts of debt being taken on to build out all this compute capacity, even if most of it is off balance sheet. A recent Wall Street Journal article has generated a lot of buzz after projecting that the five major hyperscalers have a combined $3 trillion (with a ‚Äút‚ÄĚ) in off-balance sheet liabilities.
What Walmart, Lowe's, And La-Z-Boy Earnings Say About The American Consumer
Aug 21, 2026, 12:52 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Walmart posted solid headline results but missed on comp sales, triggering a 9% one-day decline in the stock. La-Z-Boy and Klarna offered up sharply reduced guidance, reflecting broad consumer weakness. Rising energy prices and inflation are pressuring most American households, with only the wealthiest still buoyed by equity gains.
After Moderna’s Big News, Here Are Three Biotechs to Watch
Biotech had a huge day Wednesday with the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) rising nearly 6% by market close to hit a post-pandemic high. The trigger for the rally was positive Phase 3 trial data for a skin cancer therapy from Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK). MRNA rose just over 175% on the disclosure Wednesday while Merck rose over 12%. It has been a good year for biotech with the sector up nearly 40% year to date.
Silence Therapeutics: Making Some Recent Noise
Aug 19, 2026, 3:13 PM ET, , , Summary Silence Therapeutics have moved higher on recent trial results, and the company also addressed its funding needs. SLN's lead asset, divesiran for polycythemia vera, faces significant competition from Takeda's rusfertide, which is likely to launch in Q4 2026. Analyst firms are currently constructive on the company's prospects. An analysis around Silence Therapeutics follows in the paragraphs below. Looking for a helping hand in the market?
Caution Ahead: Credit Markets Flash Yellow
The market is starting to weaken a bit now that second-quarter earnings season is for the most part over. The S&P 500 had its third-straight losing session in trading on Tuesday. The Nasdaq fell a bit over 1.3% on the day as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped some 5% yesterday. It feels like the AI Revolution has entered its mania stage or is close to doing so.
Aquestive Therapeutics: Potential Catalyst On The Horizon
Aug 19, 2026, 7:17 AM ET Summary Aquestive Therapeutics (AQST) is highlighted for its growth potential, driven by upcoming NDA resubmission for Anaphylm, an orally delivered epinephrine product. Q2 results showed 38% year-over-year revenue growth to $13.8 million, with Suboxone sales as the primary driver and managment reaffirmed 2024 revenue guidance of $46–$50 million.
Artiva Biotherapeutics: Targeting A Potentially Lucrative Niche
Summary Artiva Biotherapeutics is advancing AlloNK, an off-the-shelf NK cell therapy targeting refractory rheumatoid arthritis and other B-cell autoimmune diseases. ARTV's AlloNK demonstrated promising efficacy and safety in early basket studies, with a 71% ACR50 response in RA and no serious adverse events attributed to the therapy. Phase 3 RA trial initiation is slated for 2H26, with pivotal data expected in 2H28; management estimates a $5 billion domestic opportunity in fourth-line RA.
The 'Silver Tsunami': Significant Demographic Headwind Incoming
Aug 17, 2026, 12:35 PM ET, , , , , Summary The rapidly aging U.S. demographic—the 'Silver Tsunami'—will be a persistent headwind for residential real estate, fiscal health, and equity markets. Baby Boomers own over 40% of U.S. residential real estate and hold just over half of all national wealth, amplifying the impact of their asset liquidation.
Eventually, Free Cash Flow Will Matter Again
Aug 14, 2026, 11:27 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary AI-driven tech giants like Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Oracle are showing impressive revenue and earnings growth but sharply deteriorating free cash flow. Capex surges, litigation, and infrastructure buildouts have driven META's Q2 free cash flow down 91% year-over-year, with GOOG and Oracle posting even larger negative cash flows.
With Doubts About Hyperscale Investment, Here Are 2 AI Plays I Like
The AI infrastructure buildout continues to power both the markets and the economy. On Wednesday, two neocloud providers, CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) and Nebius N.V. (NBIS), posted quarterly results. Both stocks catapulted forward in trading on better-than-expected numbers and guidance. That said, CoreWeave had negative free cash flow of $5.7 billion in Q2 despite a huge surge in revenues.
CG Oncology: Circling Back After Huge Rally
Summary CG Oncology is advancing cretositimogene grenadenorepvec (cret) for NMIBC, showing strong efficacy and best-in-class safety versus competitors. Cret achieved a 75% anytime CR, 46% 12-month CR, and 42% 24-month CR in BOND-003 Cohort C, with no Grade 3+ adverse events. Rolling BLA for cret in HR BCG-unresponsive NMIBC is expected to complete in 4Q26, with multiple trial readouts in 2H26 and 2027. An updated analysis around CG Oncology follows in the paragraphs below.
Credit Markets Shooting Off 2007 Like Flares
Aug 13, 2026, 11:50 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equity markets continue to surge on AI optimism, but credit markets signal rising stress and potential systemic risks reminiscent of 2007. CoreWeave and Nebius rallied on strong results Wednesday despite CoreWeave's sharply worsening negative free cash flow and elevated default risk. Private credit and commercial real estate sectors show increasing default rates and stress, with parallels drawn to pre-crisis warning signs.
Bausch Health: Q2 Beat And Cheap, But Debt Overhang Remains Substantial
Aug 12, 2026, 6:30 PM ET, Summary Bausch Health Companies Inc. has surged 40% post-Q2 on strong results and raised FY2026 guidance, but balance sheet risks remain paramount. BHC delivered Q2 non-GAAP EPS of $1.26, beating consensus by $0.25, with 13% revenue growth and notable margin and cash flow improvements. Despite operational momentum, BHC's $15B long-term debt and $800M H1 interest expense drive speculative credit ratings and analyst skepticism. Looking for a helping hand in the market?
Home Builders Stocks Will Be a Value Buy but Haven’t Hit Bottom Yet
The yield on the 30-Year treasury hit 5.25% on Tuesday for the first time since mid-2007. Rising yields will continue to push up average mortgage rates — the last thing the already struggling housing sector needed. In Monday’s column, I highlighted moribund housing market which faces headwinds, from near record low housing affordability to rising foreclosure rates. In today’s column, I take a deeper look at the new home builders and related industries.
Prime Medicine: An Initial Prognosis
Aug 11, 2026, 6:06 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary Prime Medicine possesses promising gene editing technology but faces significant dilution risk and cash constraints, with no new clinical data expected until 2027. PRME's lead programs target high-need liver indications, but both Wilson Disease and AATD programs are preclinical and entering crowded, competitive spaces.
Irrational Exuberance On Overdrive
Aug 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The market is exhibiting extreme 'irrational exuberance,' with record margin debt, bullish sentiment, and minimal insider buying. Tech giants like Alphabet (GOOG) have shifted from asset-light, high free cash flow models to heavy capex, negative free cash flow, and large debt issuance.
The One Word That Best Describes The Current Market: Unsustainable
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Current equity market highs mask deep economic and credit market cracks, with AI-driven capex obscuring underlying weakness. Hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending exceeds $700B for 2026, driving negative free cash flow and record debt issuance at firms like GOOG. Credit markets are flashing distress: CMBS delinquencies near 7.5%, CDS prices on ORCL and CRWV signal heightened default risk.
Sometimes Bad Is Good, and Sometimes Bad Is Bad
You Can’t always Get What You Want No, you can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometime, you’ll find You get what you need – Richards, Jagger (The Rolling Stones), 1969 Friday was a day of beauty for financial markets. The marketplace got exactly what it needed, or maybe what it wanted. That “need” was a dreadful Bureau of Labor Statistics release for the U.S. July employment situation.
An Attractive Bet on an Ugly Duckling
We are venturing out to an unloved company in a challenged sector for our latest trade idea. This stock has struggled in 2026 as the company’s results in the first and second quarters have missed expectations. Management did boost its already healthy dividend payout by 13% earlier this year, though. There also has been some recent insider buying in the shares, quite the rarity this year. The name in question is food and drug retailer Albertsons Companies (ACI).
These Will Be Among The First Casualties When The AI Bubble Bursts
Aug 07, 2026, 3:13 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The AI-driven equity rally is underpinned by surging debt and credit market stress and extreme valuation levels, reminiscent of the 1999 and 2007 bubbles. Hyperscalers like Oracle face mounting risk from massive capex, rising debt, and reliance on fragile counterparties such as OpenAI. OpenAI's delayed IPO, heavy cash burn, and market share losses heighten default risk, threatening major partners and investors.
Hold Off on Buying Cloudflare After ‘Stellar’ $696 Million Update
On Thursday evening, Cloudflare went to the tape with the firm’s second quarter financial results. For the period ended June 30, the cloud services and internet infrastructure provider posted an adjusted EPS of $0.29 (GAAP EPS: -$0.48) on revenue of $696.061 million. These top- and adjusted bottom-line results both beat Wall Street’s expectations while that sales number was good enough for year-over-year growth of 35.9%. The stock is running higher on these results. Let’s take a look.
The Economy's Dependence On Diesel
Aug 06, 2026, 10:39 AM ET, , , , , Summary Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have slashed global oil flows by 100 million barrels weekly, driving commodity price volatility. Strategic petroleum reserves are at multi-decade lows, with 600 million barrels drawn down and an 18-month timeline needed to rebuild if the conflict ends.
I See Two Very Different Opportunities in This Overbought Market
In my column on Monday, I highlighted how many parts of the market feel like a casino right now. I noted that U.S. stock margin debt is at a record $1.5 trillion after surging over the past year. High margin levels have been correlated historically with market tops. We will see if things are different this time around. This is not a U.S. phenomenon. Japan’s stock margin debt just hit its highest levels since 1990. The Nikkei would then go on to plunge by 80% over the next 18 years.
A Post Acquisition Look At Zymeworks
Summary Zymeworks Inc. (ZYME) is transitioning to a royalty revenue model, catalyzed by positive Ziihera data and the planned Theravance acquisition. ZYME's royalty model hinges on regulatory success for Ziihera in GEA, with $440M in potential milestones and high-margin future revenues if approvals materialize. Theravance acquisition creatively limits ZYME's risk to $119M, leveraging Theravance's cash, non-recourse financing, and anticipated milestone payments.
Morgan Stanley Hits Circle With Drastic New Price Target Amid Crypto Contraction
Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is trading a few percentage points lower on Monday morning after suffering a ratings downgrade by investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS). For Circle, Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette took the stock down to “Underweight” (sell-equivalent) from “Equal Weight” (hold-equivalent). Faucette also took his target price all the way down to $38 from $106.
Who Wants to Believe in Iran Talks? (The Markets Do); Big Earnings; Yen Plan
After the Fire After the fire the fire still burns The heart grows older but never ever learns The memories smolder and the soul always yearns After the fire the fire still burns I heard a voice asking what happens after the fire And then the sound of a breaking window and the scream of a tire And then the sound of a distant gun and the cry of a hungry child The night is hot But nothing’s gonna stop This gang going wild – Peter Townshend (Roger Daltrey – solo), 1985 Iran Attack Off … Again?
3 Market Predictions For August
Aug 03, 2026, 3:53 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The month of July saw the NASDAQ fall just over 3% as semiconductors had their worst month since 2008. Leverage-driven blowups are expected to continue, as seen in July's Korea Kospi crash and the forced liquidation of a highly leveraged fund. Bond vigilantes are reemerging, with rising yields and credit market stress, especially around AI-related debt issuance from companies like NVDA and ORCL.
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