Bret Jensen
- Founder, Biotech Forum and Freelance Columnist, Freelance
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Articles by Bret Jensen
The Credit Cycle Is Flashing Yellow
Jul 22, 2026, 12:20 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , Summary The credit markets are flashing yellow, with rising default rates and deteriorating fundamentals across private credit and commercial real estate. Oracle faces heightened credit risk as its debt load surges from AI infrastructure CapEx and skepticism grows over its $300B OpenAI deal. CMBS delinquency rates, especially in office and multifamily, have reached or exceeded Great Financial Crisis levels, pressuring regional banks and insurers.
Going Deeper On Disc Medicine
Jul 21, 2026, 5:57 PM ET, Summary Disc Medicine (IRON) faces a pivotal 4Q26 with APOLLO Phase 3 data for bitopertin, following an FDA CRL that delayed the approval timeline. IRON appears slightly compelling, trading at ~$2.1 billion net of cash, with significant upside tied to bitopertin and DISC-0974 clinical milestones. Bitopertin's approval path is now aligned with the FDA, but Tanabe's dersimelagon could reach the EPP/XLP market first, adding competitive pressure.
Eikon Therapeutics: Behind The Rough Debut
Jul 20, 2026, 12:05 PM ET, , , , Summary Eikon Therapeutics trades at a small discount to cash but lacks near-term catalysts and robust clinical data. EIK1001’s NSCLC Phase 2 results showed improved ORR and DCR over SOC, yet market reaction was muted and pivotal data are years away. EIK1003’s efficacy lags approved PARP inhibitors, and anemia rates, while lower, do not offset modest response rates. Looking for a helping hand in the market?
Markets Heading Toward The 'Cone Of Uncertainty'
Jul 17, 2026, 12:40 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary U.S. equity markets face significant near-term risks from fading tech leadership, overextended valuations, and persistent high interest rates. The semiconductor sector's outsized gains in 1H2026 have reversed sharply, with SOX down roughly 20% since late June and no clear new market leadership emerging.
Our Ocular Call Is Set to Expire as Market Struggles
Markets are struggling yet again on Friday. The portfolio, as readers can see, is down to about $92 in cash. Hence, I am kind of handcuffed in what I can do right now, unless I sell a few shares of something. Anything. The problem with that is two-fold. One: I don’t want to sell anything that we already have in inventory. I already sold the more expensive stocks (on a per share basis) that were in the portfolio in preparation for lower stock prices so I could add to our core positions.
SpaceX And hynix IPOs Could Mark The Top Of The Market
Jul 16, 2026, 4:19 PM ET, , , , , , , , Summary The current market environment mirrors late-stage Internet Boom dynamics, with extreme valuations and a surge in capital raising, especially among AI-related companies. Space Exploration Technologies led the 2Q2026 IPO volume with a record $85 billion raised, followed by a $25B bond deal soon thereafter. IPO volumes are projected to set records in 2026. Previous surges have been followed by bear markets.
1999 Vs. 2026: The U.S. Economy Then And Now
Jul 15, 2026, 3:51 PM ET, , , , , , Summary Current U.S. equity valuations and market concentration mirror 1999 levels, but the economic backdrop is notably weaker today. Wealth inequality has reached unprecedented levels, fueling political polarization and increasing the risk of wealth taxation initiatives. Deteriorating demographics and an aging population pressure productivity, housing supply, and healthcare costs, creating headwinds for economic growth.
ASML’s ‘Bull Flag’ and Guidance Has My Attention: Here’s My Plan
Overnight, Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML Holding (ASML) released its second-quarter financial results. The company posted GAAP EPS of €7.59 on revenue of €9.33 billion. These top and bottom-line results both easily beat Wall Street expectations while the sales print was good enough for year-over-year growth of 21.3%. In addition, ASML lifted its full-year sales forecast for the second time this year. Net sales for the year are now seen in a range spanning from €43 billion to €45 billion.
7 Numbers Behind The General Misery For Consumers
Jul 14, 2026, 7:08 PM ET, , , , , , , , Summary Consumer sentiment is near historic lows, pressured by high car payments, mortgage rates, and declining savings rates. Home affordability remains near all-time lows, with mortgage rates at 6.6% and property costs elevated post-COVID. The article examines seven numbers that highlight consumers growing struggles and their impacts on the U.S. economy. Looking for a helping hand in the market?
A Fresh Look At Syndax Pharmaceuticals
Jul 14, 2026, 4:48 PM ET, , , , , , Summary Syndax Pharmaceuticals is leveraging first-mover advantage and broad label approval for Revuforj to approach profitability despite recent revenue misses. SNDX's near-term catalysts include pivotal Phase 2/3 data for Niktimvo in 1L cGvHD and IPF, expected in 4Q26 and 2H26, respectively.
5 Things That Should Happen Before The Next Bear Market
Jul 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The U.S. economy and equity markets outside the AI-related areas are under significant pressure from multiple converging risks. OpenAI's recent turmoil, Oracle's stock drop, and surging CDS prices highlight mounting technology and credit sector vulnerabilities. Semiconductors have started to top out in recent weeks after quintupling their market weighting since 2020.
AI Hype Is Obscuring Some Pretty Dire Warning Signs
It seems the latest U.S. misadventure in the Middle East is not quite as settled as investors and the administration were hoping. Clear escalation by both parties of the recently signed memorandum of understanding puts that agreement in doubt at this point. Traffic that was just starting to regain some normalcy transiting the Strait of Hormuz is being bottle-necked again. This will push volatility around a variety of energy and commodity products higher.
7 Numbers That Should Make A Prudent Investor Say 'Whoa!'
Jul 13, 2026, 11:50 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equity markets remain near all-time highs despite rising macroeconomic risks, stretched valuations, and heavy concentration in tech and semiconductors. Micron and Nvidia profit margins have surged to unsustainable levels, with semiconductors historically being highly cyclical and vulnerable to sharp corrections.
3 Questions Prudent Investors Should Be Asking
Jul 10, 2026, 12:08 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Market trades near all-time highs with extreme valuations, driven by passive investing and questionable underlying metrics. AI hyperscalers like Oracle (ORCL) and Amazon (AMZN) show negative free cash flow despite positive non-GAAP earnings, raising sustainability concerns. OpenAI and Anthropic face profitability challenges and competitive threats, with unclear moats as cheaper alternatives and Meta Platforms (META) enter the space.
5 Eerie Signs Of A 1999-Like Market Top
Jul 09, 2026, 11:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The current AI-driven market environment closely mirrors the late stages of the 1999 Internet Boom, with extreme valuations and concentration risks. Semiconductors now represent 20% of the U.S. market cap, and tech-related stocks comprise 55%, exceeding the concentration seen in the dot-com era.
War Returns, Semis Snap Back, Fed Frets Over … AI Inflation?
U.S. forces, for a second straight day, carried out extensive strikes against Iranian military targets on Thursday. On Wednesday, U.S. air and naval forces hit 80 targets. On Thursday, they hit 90 targets. The object of these strikes is to degrade the Iranian military’s ability to attack civilian commercial vessels, which has been their hallmark, while those vessels traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is claiming to have fired at U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait as well.
A New Look At Legend Biotech: Plenty Of Upside For Carvykti
Jul 08, 2026, 2:46 PM ET, , , , , , , , Summary Legend Biotech Corporation remains a decent cell therapy play, with Carvykti showing strong efficacy and underpenetrated multiple myeloma markets. Despite competitive threats, Carvykti’s move into earlier MM lines, robust efficacy, and safety profile support upside potential and management’s multi-therapy thesis. Promising early data from LB2501 in non-Hodgkin lymphoma and solid tumor programs add optionality and have reignited investor enthusiasm.
5 Signs Of A Struggling U.S. Consumer And Economy
Jul 08, 2026, 12:07 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary AI infrastructure capex, exceeding $700B for FY2026, is the primary engine behind U.S. equity markets and GDP growth. Consumer health is deteriorating: low savings rates, rising loan delinquencies, and weak housing activity threaten economic stability. If AI capex growth slows, the U.S. economy faces significant recession risk, as few other sectors are driving growth.
The AI Data Center Blues
Jul 07, 2026, 12:52 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The hyperscaler AI data center buildout is facing mounting ROI concerns, with capex exceeding $700B in FY2026 and surging debt and equity issuance. Escalating costs for GPUs, NAND, DRAM, and electricity are pressuring hyperscaler margins and delaying or canceling data center projects.
Why I’m Eyeing Lockheed, RTX; Fire in Hormuz; SpaceX Lands on … Nasdaq 100
Here we go again. Has anyone at least considered that these guys will always attempt to disrupt the peace process? It’s pretty obvious that they have no interest in a peaceful coexistence with the U.S., with Israel, or even with their Islamic neighbors. It’s also pretty obvious that the more radical voices within that nation have no interest in sharing internal power with those holding more moderate views within their own government.
‘Logic’ Tells Me to Buy Lam Research, but Not Yet
We all know that the semiconductors had a rough week going into the 250th anniversary of our nation’s independence. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gave up 9.43% last week, while the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductor Index surrendered 6.31%. The semiconductor equipment providers were not immune. For the week, Lam Research gave back 7.3%, and KLA Corp (KLAC) lost 5.3%, while Applied Materials surrendered 3.8%. For KLAC, the period was “good” for a second consecutive red weekly candlestick.
U.S. Economy: Why Housing Will Remain Stuck In Q3
Jul 06, 2026, 7:35 AM ET, , Summary The U.S. housing market faces a supply glut, not a shortage, with inventories at decade highs and home sellers greatly outnumbering buyers. Affordability is the core issue: home prices have far outpaced wage growth, and stagnant or falling prices with rising ownership costs create a toxic mix. Demographic shifts—especially the Baby Boomer 'Silver Tsunami'—will drive significant home supply onto the market over the next 15–20 years.
The Hopium Around The AI Narrative Is Fading
Jul 04, 2026, 10:51 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary The AI-driven rally appears to be peaking, with recent negative developments challenging the sustainability of the AI narrative. OpenAI's struggles—pricing pressure, delayed IPO, and political maneuvering—raise concerns about the viability of massive AI infrastructure investments. Hyperscalers and tech giants like META are reconsidering their AI capex strategies, with some renting out excess data center capacity amid ROI doubts.
4 Unsustainable Trends Driving The U.S. Economy
Jul 02, 2026, 12:02 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The U.S. market is highly bifurcated, with megacap tech stocks like NVIDIA driving most of the equity gains since late 2022. Core economic drivers—consumer savings, debt, fiscal deficits, and AI-driven tech spending—are unsustainable and pose significant risks. AI-related capex accounts for a disproportionate share of recent GDP growth; any slowdown could have dire market and economic consequences.
Ascendis Pharma: Behind The Stock Surge
Jul 02, 2026, 9:44 AM ET, , , , , , Summary Ascendis Pharma has more than tripled over the past two and a half years, driven by Yorvipath's blockbuster launch and Yuviwel's FDA approval. Yorvipath's rapid adoption and ongoing label expansion underpin robust revenue growth. Yuviwel-Skytrofa combo therapy demonstrated unprecedented efficacy in achondroplasia, positioning ASND ahead of competitors pending pivotal trials. Patent litigation is one risk with the stock.
About That 'Robust' Earnings Growth
Jul 01, 2026, 1:08 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equity markets posted strong H1 2026 gains, but S&P 500 earnings growth is narrowly concentrated in a few sectors and megacap tech names. Record S&P 500 profit margins and non-GAAP earnings are driven by Information Technology, Energy, and Materials, with most sectors showing modest growth.
Nike Rallies as Execution Improves but There’s a Problem
On Tuesday evening, athletic equipment and apparel seller Nike (NKE) went to the tape with the firm’s fiscal fourth quarter financial results. Wall Street is less than excited about it. Even after the shares have fallen more than 77% from their late 2021 high, there just seems to be no way for the once-prestigious brand name to get out of its own way. The shares are down 36.5% just in 2026 alone.
U.S. Equity Markets: Lots Of Gambling Going On
Jun 30, 2026, 11:55 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Speculative excess is evident in record margin debt ($1.4T), surging leveraged ETF AUM ($198B), and the return of SPACs, signaling heightened market risk. Market leadership has narrowed as the Magnificent Seven have shed $5T in market cap from its peak, with hyperscalers facing surging capex and falling free cash flow.
6 Asset Bubbles That Have Already Popped
Jun 29, 2026, 11:23 AM ET, , , , , , , , , Summary Recent asset bubbles - SPACs, NFTs, office real estate, Sun Belt housing, Bitcoin, and gold - have sharply deflated following the Fed’s aggressive monetary expansion and subsequent tightening. Office property values in major cities have plunged up to 70%, with CMBS office delinquencies now near 12%, surpassing Great Financial Crisis peaks.
Markets Starting To Choke On Massive Surge In Debt Issuance
Jun 28, 2026, 2:53 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Micron Technology delivered a strong earnings beat and raised guidance, driven by surging DRAM and NAND prices and robust data center demand. Hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta have shifted to heavy capex models, sharply reducing free cash flow and buybacks.
The Private Credit Blues
Jun 26, 2026, 11:55 AM ET, , , , , , Summary Private credit funds are experiencing accelerating stress, with redemption gating intensifying and default rates at record highs. Major funds like Ares, Apollo, Blackstone, and Cliffwater are granting only 5% of AUM for redemptions amid rising requests, pressuring stock prices. Private credit is heavily exposed to SaaS/software sectors, which face disruption from AI, compounding risk and likely pushing default rates higher.
4 Signs Of A Schizophrenic Market
Jun 25, 2026, 1:09 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equity markets remain near all-time highs despite sharp divergences between Wall Street and Main Street fundamentals. Retail investors are leveraging up as personal savings rates hit historic lows, while institutional players aggressively raise capital and reduce risk. Earnings growth is highly concentrated in technology and energy, masking weak or negative profit trends in most S&P sectors.
BioAge Labs: Developing A 'Pipeline In A Pill'
Jun 24, 2026, 5:11 PM ET, Summary BioAge Labs is focused on developing BGE-102, a promising oral NLRP3 inhibitor targeting cardiometabolic diseases and inflammation-driven conditions. BGE-102's Phase 1 data showed rapid, profound reductions in hsCRP and consistent decreases in IL-6 and fibrinogen, supporting its multi-organ potential. BIOA is well-capitalized, ending Q1 with $390M cash and no long-term debt, funding operations through 2029 despite commercialization being years away.
3 Troubling Trends For Investors
Jun 24, 2026, 10:08 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary Private credit funds like Apollo and Cliffwater are facing surging redemption requests, enforcing strict limits amid record 6% default rates and potential valuation opacity. Market concentration is at unprecedented levels, with technology now over 55% of U.S. market cap and margin debt at record highs relative to GDP.
4 Market Surprises For Q3
Jun 23, 2026, 4:52 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The second quarter has been a good one for investors despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The AI infrastructure buildout continues to be the primary driver of the U.S. economy and semiconductors have been huge movers to the upside in Q2. FactSet is expecting another quarter of over 20% year-over-year profit growth from the S&P 500 in Q3. What else is ahead for the markets and investors in the coming third quarter?
The Prognosis For PTC Therapeutics
Jun 23, 2026, 11:20 AM ET Summary PTC Therapeutics has surged 75% since Sephience’s July 2025 approval, driven by a blockbuster launch and robust sales momentum. Sephience’s superior efficacy, broad label, and rapid uptake support management’s $2 billion peak sales target, with 1Q26 sales reaching $124.6 million. PTCT’s balance sheet is fortified by $1.89 billion in cash and a lucrative Novartis collaboration, providing optionality for business development.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals: The Song Remains The Same
Summary Acadia Pharmaceuticals remains a solid covered call candidate, with shares up 20% since the last review and a stable trading range. ACAD's growth is driven by Nuplazid and DAYBUE, with DAYBUE STIX expected to marginally boost sales following its full Q2 launch. Management reaffirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $1.22–$1.28 billion, supported by a robust balance sheet with $850M in cash and no long-term debt.
3 Potential Economic Landmines Investors Are Choosing To Ignore
Jun 21, 2026, 6:55 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , Summary U.S. equities remain at all-time highs despite mounting economic risks across student loans, shadow banking, and multi-family real estate. Student loan delinquencies have surged to record levels, with over 9 million borrowers delinquent and new, less forgiving repayment plans imminent. Private credit and private equity face rising default rates and liquidity stress, particularly in software, with potential spillover risks to broader markets.
A Look At The Transformation Around Rigel Pharmaceuticals
Jun 20, 2026, 7:44 AM ET, , Summary Rigel Pharmaceuticals trades at an attractive valuation after a 35% pullback, with a market cap just over $600 million. RIGL's growth strategy pivots on the Veppanu licensing deal, supplementing strong Tavalisse performance and recent product acquisitions. Q1 revenues rose 10% year-over-year to $58.8 million, but net product revenues rose 26%; management also maintained FY2026 sales guidance of $275–$290 million.
5 Numbers Highlighting How Insane The Market Has Become
Jun 19, 2026, 11:26 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equity markets are at record highs, driven lately by peace prospects with Iran and surging Technology and Energy sector earnings. Valuations are historically extreme: SpaceX trades at over 130x sales, the Buffett Indicator is at 214%, and IPO fundraising is set to shatter records. Semiconductor stocks like SNDK exhibit excessive momentum, with Sandisk's RSI reaching unprecedented levels after a 4,600% annual gain.
One Massive Hole In The AI Narrative
Jun 18, 2026, 12:18 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Goldman Sachs forecasts hyperscaler capex could reach $1.1 trillion in FY2027, with Oracle projecting up to $95 billion in capex for FY2027. AI data center buildout dwarfs prior tech cycles, but GPUs’ short useful life (2–3 years) for mission-critical tasks creates higher ongoing costs vs. historical infrastructure.
3 Well-Known Companies Getting Hit By The K-Shaped Economy
Jun 17, 2026, 3:43 PM ET, , , , , , , , Summary Lennar, Nike, and Dave & Buster's exemplify the struggles of consumer-facing sectors in today's K-shaped U.S. economy. LEN faces declining sales, shrinking margins, and heavy incentives, with average sale prices down 24% from peak and stock halved since 2024 highs. NKE suffers from weak China sales, domestic demand softness, and failed DTC strategy; despite a 3.6% yield, valuation remains unattractive at 30x forward earnings.
6 Obtuse Numbers That Should Concern Investors
Jun 17, 2026, 12:05 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary Equities have rallied on optimism over a potential Iran deal which seems done now, but underlying economic risks remain significant despite near-record market highs. Private credit default rates have hit all-time highs, which Fitch reported at 6% in April and UBS projecting up to 15% in a worst-case scenario.
U.S. Economy: 4 Reasons Housing Is Toast In 2026
Jun 16, 2026, 12:36 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary The U.S. housing market is expected to deteriorate further in 2026, with no rebound in sight. Rising competition from new home builders, aggressive incentives, and historically high price-to-income ratios are pressuring existing home sellers. Affordability remains at record lows due to elevated mortgage rates, surging insurance, property taxes, and flat or declining rents.
The Market Is Experiencing A 'Jumping The Shark' Moment
Jun 15, 2026, 12:11 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equities are trading at extreme valuations, fueled by the AI boom and massive tech spending, echoing past market bubbles. Space Exploration Technologies debuted as the largest U.S. IPO ever Friday, reaching a $2.1T market cap despite $5B in 2025 losses and a 113x sales multiple. Hyperscalers like Alphabet and Oracle are raising unprecedented debt and equity to fund AI infrastructure, with significant off-balance-sheet liabilities.
Heading For The Exits
Jun 11, 2026, 11:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is about to raise a record $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation, over 90x projected 2025 revenues. Massive AI-related IPOs and secondary offerings signal insiders cashing out amid parabolic private valuations and extreme market multiples. Private credit and equity funds face surging redemption requests and are gating, with default rates at record highs and redemptions capped.
Iran: Sleepwalking Into A Crisis
Jun 10, 2026, 5:23 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , Summary The ongoing Iran conflict has kept the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, severely disrupting global energy flows and supply chains. Oil supply disruptions have removed roughly 11 million barrels per day from the market, triggering the largest energy shock since 1973. Inflation is surging, with May CPI at 4.2% y/y and airline fares up 27%, eroding household purchasing power and stalling Fed rate cuts.
Iovance Biotherapeutics: Progress With Caveats
Jun 10, 2026, 10:15 AM ET Summary Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) faces execution issues post-Amtagvi approval, with FY25 sales significantly lower than initial guidance and significant share dilution. IOVA’s TIL therapy Amtagvi is the first FDA-approved individualized T-cell therapy for solid tumors, with ongoing trials in melanoma, NSCLC, and other indications.
The 'Real Economy' Remains Troubled
Jun 09, 2026, 6:51 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , Summary The AI-driven tech surge is masking significant underlying weakness in the broader U.S. economy. AI leaders like Anthropic and OpenAI, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO, remain unprofitable despite massive valuations and are critical to sustaining market momentum. Housing affordability has collapsed, consumer sentiment is at record lows, and loan delinquencies are rising, signaling distress in the real economy.
7 Signs Markets Are Near A Top
Jun 09, 2026, 9:33 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Summary Equities appear significantly overbought, with extreme bullish sentiment, record margin debt, and historically low S&P 500 dividend yields. Market concentration is at 1999-like levels, with tech dominating capitalization and the Shiller PE ratio near Internet Bubble highs. Hyperscaler free cash flow is plunging due to surging capex, raising doubts about future ROI and increasing reliance on debt.
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