Colby Smith
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@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com
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Articles by Colby Smith
High interest rates aren’t slowing the AI boom. That’s a problem for the Fed.
The Federal Reserve has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of today’s growth, and the price pressures that have followed in its wake, appears nearly immune to the higher interest rates that the central bank has begun to impose on the economy.
Higher Energy Prices Lift US Inflation Before Midterm Elections
Higher energy prices drove up inflation in the United States in September, a warning shot to President Donald Trump before midterm elections that have centered primarily on affordability concerns. The uptick in consumer prices will also keep the Federal Reserve under pressure to raise interest rates for a second time this year. The consumer price index report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, showed that overall prices rose 0.6%, the largest monthly increase in five months.
Se dispara inflación a tres semanas de las elecciones
El aumento en los precios de la energía impulsó la inflación en Estados Unidos en septiembre, una llamada de atención para el presidente Donald Trump antes de unas elecciones intermedias centradas sobre todo en la preocupación por el costo de la vida. El alza en los precios al consumidor también mantendrá a la Reserva Federal bajo presión para subir las tasas de interés por segunda vez este año.
One of the country’s best Wine festivals returns to San Diego this November—with waterfront tastings and award-winning chefs
The San Diego Food + Wine Festival returns this November for eight days of chef dinners, wine experiences, and a signature weekend packed with coastal flavor. via San Diego Food and Wine Festival It’s back! The San Diego Food + Wine Festival returns November 1–8, 2026, bringing chefs, winemakers, and food lovers together for its 22nd annual celebration. Expect intimate dinners, cross-border culinary collaborations, and waterfront tastings—with the three signature events taking place November 6–8.
Live Updates: New Insight on Inflation Pressuring U.S. Economy and the Fed
Latest Fresh data on Wednesday will offer the latest look at the forces that have made rapidly rising prices a fact of life in recent years. The Consumer Price Index will show what people paid for goods and services across the U.S. economy last month, when conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy costs and the strained supplies of computer chips and labor.
Live Update: Soaring Energy Prices Push Inflation Higher
Latest Higher energy prices drove up inflation in the United States in September, a warning shot to President Trump ahead of midterm elections that have centered primarily on affordability concerns. The uptick in consumer prices will also keep the Federal Reserve under pressure to raise interest rates again after last month’s move.
Trump’s Latest Effort to Fire a Fed Official Underscores Political Motives
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Trump’s Latest Effort to Fire a Fed Official Underscores Political Motives President Trump tapped his political appointees to determine whether he could oust Lisa Cook, a Fed governor he had already tried to oust.
Lawyer for Fed Governor Cook Denounces Trump’s New Investigation
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Lawyer for Fed Governor Cook Denounces Trump’s New Investigation A lawyer for Lisa Cook raised “significant concerns” over the “objectivity and fitness of the committee” assembled by President Trump as a way to remove her as a governor at the Federal Reserve. Lisa D.
AI boom tangles Fed’s measures to ease inflation
Let us read it for you. Listen now. Your browser does not support the audio element. The Federal Reserve has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of today's growth, and the price pressures that have followed in its wake, appears nearly immune to the higher interest rates that the central bank has begun to impose on the economy.
Trump Announces White House Inquiry Into Fed Governor Cook
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Trump Announces White House Inquiry Into Fed Governor Cook President Trump said the White House would investigate unsubstantiated claims that Lisa D. Cook committed mortgage fraud and hold a hearing next month. The announcement is the latest escalation in President Trump’s campaign to remove Lisa D.
A Top Fed Official Casts Further Doubt on a Rate Rise This Month
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. A Top Fed Official Casts Further Doubt on a Rate Rise This Month The Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates further as it seeks to tame inflation, but that is unlikely to happen until the end of the year. Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, last month.
Fed Minutes Show Officials Saw More Work to Do to Quell Inflation
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Fed Minutes Show Officials Saw More Work to Do to Quell Inflation Policymakers grew increasingly concerned about inflation risks at their most recent meeting in September. Kevin M.
High interest rates aren’t slowing the AI boom. That’s a problem for the Fed
The Federal Reserve has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of today’s growth, and the price pressures that have followed in its wake, appears nearly immune to the higher interest rates that the central bank has begun to impose on the economy.
High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed.
8 hours ago Hundreds of thousands of borrowers fell into default on their federal student loans this year, according to new data released by the Education Department. And the situation for borrowers is deteriorating further as default rates continue to climb, millions of borrowers are kicked off of affordable …
High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed.
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed. Rising borrowing costs are taking a toll on households and businesses. But they are doing little to dampen enthusiasm for investments in A.I. infrastructure, which are contributing to inflation.
Soft Jobs Report Boosts Market Bets Fed Will Skip October Rate Increase
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Soft Jobs Report Boosts Market Bets Fed Will Skip October Rate Increase The odds of an interest rate change at the Federal Reserve’s meeting in late October have dropped following a softer jobs report and strong signaling from bank officials. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in 2025.
Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations
The Federal Reserve’s internal watchdog found no evidence of illegal behavior or administrative misconduct associated with the central bank’s nearly $2.5 billion project to overhaul its headquarters in Washington, D.C., even as it concluded that the renovations were poorly managed and lacked sufficient budget constraints.
Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations
Fed’s Watchdog Finds No Misconduct or Illegal Activity in Costly Renovations - The New York Times
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Points to Continued Price Pressures The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index showed little sign of easing in August. The immediate question confronting Federal Reserve officials, led by Kevin M. Warsh, is how quickly they need to deliver additional rate increases in order to firm their grip on inflation.Credit...Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve. Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent. Sept.
Fed Confronts the Prospect of Another Rate Increase Ahead of Midterms
Fed Confronts the Prospect of Another Rate Increase Ahead of Midterms Financial markets are placing nearly 70 percent odds on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in late October. Federal Reserve officials, led by Kevin M. Warsh, hold their next policy meeting just days before the midterm elections.Credit...Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Sept.
Carney Says Risk of an A.I. Catastrophe Is ‘Above Zero’
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Carney Says Risk of an A.I. Catastrophe Is ‘Above Zero’ In contrast to President Trump’s calls for an unfettered A.I. industry, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada called for international coordination on regulations.
The Fed, after raising rates, grapples with what comes next
After four months of talking tough about inflation, Kevin Warsh finally followed through. On Wednesday, the chair of the Federal Reserve announced with his colleagues that the central bank had raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a new range of 3.75% to 4%. The move was widely expected, with financial markets ascribing over 90% odds to an increase before the gathering. The question now is what comes next.
Fed Chairman Escapes Trump’s Public Ire Over Interest Rate Increase
Fed Chairman Escapes Trump’s Public Ire Over Interest Rate Increase The president blasted the rest of the Fed — and kept up his demand for a cut — but spared Fed Chairman Kevin M. Warsh from the criticism. From left, Fed Chairman Kevin M. Warsh and President Trump. While Mr. Trump is still pursuing lower borrowing costs, he has afforded Mr. Warsh more leeway than his predecessorCredit...Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times Sept.
The Fed, After Raising Rates, Grapples With What Comes Next
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. The Fed, After Raising Rates, Grapples With What Comes Next Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday left open-ended how much more interest rates may have to rise to tame inflation.
Takeaways From the Fed’s Decision to Raise Interest Rates
Takeaways From the Fed’s Decision to Raise Interest Rates Kevin M. Warsh, the Federal Reserve chairman, said the bank acted to fight inflation that ‘is too high and has been for too long.’ Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, declined to discuss whether the rate increase on Wednesday was the first of a series of moves or just a one-off.Credit...Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Sept.
Fed Signals Another Rate Increase Could Be Coming Original
Fed Signals Another Rate Increase Could Be Coming Here’s how to read the Federal Reserve’s economic projections like a pro. A chart showing what the 19 Fed officials think the Federal Funds rate should be at the end of this year and next, which range from about three to five percent. Each dot represents what one Fed official thinks the midpoint of the target rate range should be at the end of that year.
Live Updates: Fed Faces a Credibility Test on Interest Rates
Latest Updated Sept. 16, 2026, 12:09 p.m. ET Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve for The New York Times. The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a momentous decision. The central bank is widely expected on Wednesday to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to a new range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent. If the Fed follows through, it will be the first rate increase since July 2023. It would also immediately put Kevin M.
Fed Readies for Momentous Rate Decision The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, less than two months before the midterm elections. Kevin M. Warsh and his colleagues on the Fed’s policy-making committee have limited latitude to avoid lifting rates.Credit...Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Colby Smith covers the Federal Reserve for The New York Times. Sept. 16, 2026, 5:04 a.m. ET The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of a momentous decision on Wednesday.
Live Updates: Treasury Secretary Testifies Before House Panel
Sept. 15, 2026, 9:52 a.m. ET Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s testimony is specifically on the state of the financial system. But, as with most congressional hearings, no topic is off limits, so the Treasury secretary may soon find himself on the receiving end of a grilling about a vast set of economic developments.
Warsh Set for Showdown With Trump as Fed Faces Pressure to Raise Rates
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Warsh Set for Showdown With Trump as Fed Faces Pressure to Raise Rates The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, putting Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman, at odds with the administration just before the midterms. Kevin M.
Here’s what to know.
Sept. 11, 2026Updated 9:29 a.m. ET U.S. inflation stayed stubbornly high in August, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its meeting next week. The Consumer Price Index report, released on Friday, showed overall inflation remained elevated at an annual pace of 3.4 percent, after a 0.4 percent rise from July. “Core” inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy items, rose 0.3 percent in August, or 2.4 percent from a year earlier.
Live Updates: Inflation Data to Offer Update on Stubborn Price Pressures
Latest Updated Sept. 11, 2026, 5:52 a.m. ET20 minutes ago All eyes are on Friday’s inflation report for a key reason: It could prompt officials at the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Policymakers stipulated this summer that if inflation did not soon moderate, they stood ready to take action. Officials have yet to define what exactly “soon” means, but many have run out of patience.
Trump threatens to halt some trade unless the Fed cuts rates
President Donald Trump threatened Friday to halt a broad swath of U.S. trade unless the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates, issuing a sweeping ultimatum that could prove costly to the economy if he were to carry it out. The Fed is a politically independent institution, and it has long kept rates steady as it tries to tame years of persistent inflation. Trump’s demand risked undermining that work, while choking off commerce in ways that could harm American families and businesses.
Trump Threatens to Halt Some Trade Unless the Fed Cuts Rates
Trump Threatens to Halt Some Trade Unless the Fed Cuts Rates The president said he could halt trade between the United States and countries with which it has a trade deficit if the central bank doesn’t do his bidding. President Trump’s remarks were his latest attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times Sept.
Rate Rise in Play as Fed Officials Await Inflation Data Christopher J. Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, sounded optimistic about inflation’s trajectory but indicated he would support higher rates if progress does not continue. Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, said he was looking for evidence that showed inflation was continuing to abate.Credit...Ann Saphir/Reuters Sept.
Warsh, After Talking Tough on Inflation, Faces a ‘No-Win Situation’ on Rates
Warsh, After Talking Tough on Inflation, Faces a ‘No-Win Situation’ on Rates Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, must soon decide whether to raise interest rates if inflation does not ease, even if it draws President Trump’s ire. Kevin Warsh, chairman of the Federal Reserve, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday.Credit...Natalie Behring/Getty Images Aug. 29, 2026, 4:39 p.m. ET Kevin M.
Fed Chairman Seeks to Calm Concerns About Elevated Inflation In a high-profile speech, Kevin M. Warsh said that the Federal Reserve was chiefly responsible for taming inflation. If price increases did not return to the central bank’s target quickly, “we have work to do,” he said. Kevin M. Warsh, the Federal Reserve chairman, used a closely watched speech in Jackson, Wyo., to assure the public the Fed is committed to tackling inflation.Credit...Natalie Behring/Getty Images Aug.
Trump Administration Live: Fed Governor Slams Trump’s Latest Attempt to Oust Her
Image The legal battle between Lisa D. Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, and President Trump has hung heavily over the central bank.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times Lisa D. Cook on Wednesday fought back against President Trump’s latest attempt to try to oust her from her role at the Federal Reserve.
Fed Governor Targeted by Trump Issues Defense Against Attempted Ouster
Fed Governor Targeted by Trump Issues Defense Against Attempted Ouster Lisa D. Cook hit back at President Trump’s allegations that she had committed mortgage fraud. The legal battle between Lisa D. Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, and President Trump has hung heavily over the central bank.Credit...Kenny Holston/The New York Times Aug. 26, 2026, 7:25 p.m. ET Lisa D. Cook on Wednesday fought back against President Trump’s latest attempt to try to oust her from her role at the Federal Reserve.
‘Honeymoon’s Over’: Warsh Under Pressure as Fed Weighs Raising Rates
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Three years before taking over as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin M. Warsh recounted an exchange he once had with a hero of his, Paul A. Volcker, the celebrated central banker.
The Enemies of Poetry are the Enemies of Nature
Submitted creative writing by Colby Smith Poetry is more effective than every spoken or inward prayer, every minor or major ritual, and every fleeting or fundamental myth when confronting the mysteries of Nature. Poetry shapes the only prayers and invocations that the gods could want to hear. It is the ritual that yields foolproof results without burning or bloodshed.
Mundo redescobre dívida colossal dos EUA, e risco de crise começa a preocupar
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The Economy Got Used to Low Borrowing Costs. Their Exit Could Pose Risks.
You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. The Economy Got Used to Low Borrowing Costs. Their Exit Could Pose Risks. After roughly two decades of ultralow interest rates, a period of rapid readjustment is ahead for the United States, the world’s largest economy and most important financial system.
Treasury Turns to Interventionist Tactics to Lower Interest Rates
Treasury Turns to Interventionist Tactics to Lower Interest Rates Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reinventing the government’s role in the world’s most important bond market. Credit...Tierney L. Cross for The New York Times Aug. 20, 2026Updated 2:07 p.m. ET The Trump administration’s Treasury Department has become increasingly interventionist in its efforts to bend the forces of global markets to lower the cost of living in the United States, but it is finding that success does not come easily.
More Fed Officials Lost Patience About Elevated Inflation at Latest Meeting
More Fed Officials Lost Patience About Elevated Inflation at Latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July gathering showed broadening support for higher borrowing costs to stamp out lingering price pressures. Kevin M. Warsh, the Federal Reserve chairman, has made taming inflation his top priority.Credit...Anna Rose Layden for The New York Times Aug.
Benign Inflation Data Would Reduce Urgency Around September Rate Rise Original
The Federal Reserve has an inflation problem, but officials differ on what needs to be done to resolve it. A growing cohort of policymakers believe the central bank should have already raised interest rates to speed up the pace at which inflation falls back to a more palatable level. Others remain confident that price pressures will ease on their own as temporary factors caused by tariffs and the war with Iran fade.
Benign Inflation Data Offers Reprieve to Fed as It Weighs Rate Increase
New inflation data showing a modest easing of price pressures in July has given the Federal Reserve some breathing room as it considers raising interest rates at its policy meeting next month. But the prospect of higher borrowing costs remains firmly on the table as officials begin to lose patience about how long inflation has overshot the central bank's target.
Trump Restarts Battle to Fire Sitting Fed Governor Original
President Trump opened a new front in his battle with Lisa D. Cook, the Federal Reserve official he tried — and failed — to oust from her position last year. In a letter sent on Wednesday, the White House informed Ms. Cook, who serves on the Board of Governors, that it was “considering” removing her from her position. The letter, which was signed by Dan Scavino, the White House deputy chief of staff, gave Ms. Cook 21 days to respond to previous allegations that she had committed mortgage fraud.
Weak Jobs Report Does Not Eliminate Prospects of a September Rate Rise Original
July’s jobs report has reduced some of the urgency around the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, but it has not eliminated the possibility. Officials at the central bank instead appear much more sensitive to how price pressures are evolving, with heightened focus on next week’s inflation report.
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