Cooper Burton
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Articles by Cooper Burton
Where are all the polls?
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. We’re less than three weeks out from the midterm elections, and our team here at FiftyPlusOne is hard at work collecting up all the polls and data to help understand how things are shaping up in the race for Congress this year.
Progressives won a lot of primaries this year. Can they win in November?
Throughout the 2026 primaries, progressive candidates have made headlines across the country, with little-known challengers toppling 30-year incumbents, deep-pocketed House members, and powerful congressional chairs. Elsewhere, notable progressives won highly competitive open primaries in swing districts and deep-blue seats alike, all but guaranteeing that they will expand their numbers in Congress next year. So, what types of races were these progressives running in and winning?
No, the polling industry is not on the verge of collapse
The New York Times is, once again, worried about the polls. In a piece last week, Reid Epstein brought up a number of concerns facing the polling industry, full of hand-wringing about whether or not the polls are blowing it this cycle.
Rural and suburban voters haven’t looked this Democratic since 2018
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. For decades, Republicans have built their congressional strength on support from rural voters, racking up huge margins in some of the most sparsely populated areas of the country.
We’re suspending two pollsters from FiftyPlusOne for ethics violations
FiftyPlusOne is not the polls police. However, we do, from time to time, make the tough decision to exclude a pollster from our data collection, aggregation, and forecasting when we lose faith in the process a firm uses to gather and generate its polling results.
Major Supreme Court decisions this term are underwater with Americans
Welcome to The Trendline, the FiftyPlusOne.news weekly polling roundup. Subscribe to get it delivered straight to your inbox and get bundled access to our polling website. It’s summertime, which means the Supreme Court is in the news again. The court’s overall approval rating has been abysmal for years now, and according to the latest YouGov/Economist poll conducted earlier this week (Jul. 3 - 6, 2026), most of the justices’ personal favorability ratings are in the gutter as well.
Trump is giving Elon Musk an unprecedented amount of power Original
The Department of Government Efficiency could wind up hurting Trump politically. ByNathaniel Rakich, Julia Azari, and Cooper Burton February 4, 2025, 2:27 PM Welcome to 538's latest politics chat. Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
What do Americans think of Trump's executive actions?
They support Trump’s immigration policies, but not much else. ByMary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Tia Yang, and Cooper Burton January 22, 2025, 1:39 PM In just the first couple days of his second term, President Donald Trump has already taken an extraordinary amount of executive action. On Monday alone, he issued 26 executive orders, 12 legally binding memoranda and four presidential proclamations.
How Biden reshaped the judiciary Original
His appointees were the most diverse ever, but Trump's remain more influential. ByCooper Burton and Amina Brown January 16, 2025, 4:21 PM Amid the flurry of discontent with much of Joe Biden's presidency (his approval rating recently hit a new low), the outgoing president has managed to score a quiet victory that could leave an impact long after he has left office: appointing lots of judges.
The congressional bathroom ban is the latest transgender policy battle
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Do Americans agree with Republicans' transgender bathroom bans? The history of bathroom access in the U.S. Capitol is part of a broader story about how political representation in the U.S. has been limited to men until recently — female lawmakers didn't have access to a bathroom near the House chamber until 2011, nearly a century after the first woman served in Congress and four years after the House elected its first female speaker.
Democrats aren't alone - incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
But their losses were smaller than those in many other democracies. As the dust settles from Election Day, many have begun their autopsies on Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, trying to parse out what talking points or issues ultimately led to her defeat. Domestic issues and the minutiae of campaigning certainly play a big role in any campaign.
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
24/7 LiveNew York CityNew JerseyLong IslandNorthern SuburbsConnecticut Welcome, Mickey mickey@disney.com Manage MyDisney Account Log Out ByNathaniel Rakich and Cooper Burton, ABCNews Tuesday, November 5, 2024 5:30AM The next leader of the free world isn't the only thing being decided on Tuesday.
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election Original
Across 41 states, voters will decide on abortion, drug legalization and more. ByNathaniel Rakich and Cooper Burton November 4, 2024, 4:24 PM The next leader of the free world isn't the only thing being decided on Tuesday. Voters in 41 states will take policymaking into their own hands as they decide the fate of 146 ballot measures on topics as diverse as abortion rights, election laws, workers' rights and even drug legalization.
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024 Original
Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire. By now, you’re probably well familiar with the handful of swing states that are all-but-certain to decide who wins the race for control of Congress and the White House this November. But many of those states are also hosting highly competitive elections for their state legislatures too.
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections. ByMary Radcliffe, Cooper Burton, and Amina Brown October 28, 2024, 4:58 PM As Election Day approaches, many of you may find yourselves obsessively checking the polls, poring over every minute change in our forecasts and averages to try to glean any new insights you can about the state of the race. We get it — looking at the polls is kind of our thing here at 538.
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024? Original
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states. ByNathaniel Rakich and Cooper Burton October 17, 2024, 11:25 AM The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024 Original
While congressional redistricting typically only happens every 10 years, coinciding with the U.S. Census, several states have nevertheless changed their congressional maps since 2022, due to court rulings that struck down previous maps as unconstitutional.
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election Original
Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states. The entire nation will vote on the next president of the United States this fall, but the election will likely come down to seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries Original
But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in. Over the last six years, a wave of upstart progressives have slowly chipped away at the old guard of the Democratic Party, toppling more centrist or establishment-aligned incumbents and pushing the party as a whole further to the left. These skirmishes have been one of the defining stories of Democratic primaries since 2018.
Fact-checking Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's 1st presidential debate
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump met for the first time Tuesday in their first presidential debate of the 2024 election, hosted by ABC News. The high-stakes, 90-minute debate was held at Philadelphia's National Constitution Center, with Trump and Harris arguing their case for the White House.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
Vice President Kamala Harris launched her run for president just 107 days before Election Day, so she's had to cram a lot of campaigning into the last few weeks. This includes reintroducing herself as a top-of-the-ticket candidate to voters and laying out her policy platform. She's done much of this through speeches, including her nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's platform?
8 hours ago White House press secretary shuts down reporter’s ‘insane’ Kamala Harris question The Independent - Lucy Leeson • 8h White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre shut down a reporter’s “insane” question about vice president Kamala Harris’s accent. Fox News reporter Peter Doocy questioned the vice president’s apparent shift in dialect during her Labor Day rally in Detroit.
Can You Guess How Americans Feel About Harris’s Platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about the VP’s policies. Vice President Kamala Harris launched her run for president just 107 days before Election Day, so she’s had to cram a lot of campaigning into the last few weeks. This includes reintroducing herself as a top-of-the-ticket candidate to voters and laying out her policy platform. She’s done much of this through speeches, including her nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.
Americans don’t like Project 2025 Original
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Project 2025 could be an albatross for Trump There's been some infighting among conservatives lately over a package of sweeping conservative policy proposals known as "Project 2025." Conservative groups developed the plan as a sort of wish list for if former President Donald Trump gets reelected, and it contains policies widely considered to align with his vision for governance.
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
ABC7 New York 24/7 Eyewitness News Stream THE LOOP | NYC Weather and Traffic Cams WATCH LIVE Welcome, Manage MyDisney Account Log Out We looked at polls, resumes and more to assess the likely front-runners.
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
We looked at polls, resumes and more to assess the likely front-runners. ByMary Radcliffe and Cooper Burton President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race on Sunday set off a whirlwind of activity among Democrats to coalesce around Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's pick to replace him.
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term
Welcome to NewsBreak, an open platform where diverse perspectives converge. Most of our content comes from established publications and journalists, as well as from our extensive network of tens of thousands of creators who contribute to our platform. We empower individuals to share insightful viewpoints through short posts and comments.
Why the Supreme Court tends to release unpopular decisions late in its term Original
The court may be trying to minimize public backlash over controversial opinions. ByCooper Burton and Katie Marriner The Supreme Court ended its term July 1, partially granting former President Donald Trump's claim to absolute presidential immunity while in office while punting specific questions related to his Jan. 6 prosecution back down to lower courts for further consideration.
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about Original
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Thursday's mifepristone ruling will be popular On Thursday, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that plaintiffs did not have standing to challenge the Food and Drug Administration's guidelines on mifepristone, one of the drugs used in medication abortions. The decision means that women will continue to have access to the pill without an in-person doctor's appointment. The Supreme Court has become quite unpopular in the wake of 2022's Dobbs v.
How Trump's trial is (not) changing the polls
Plus, the latest polling on campus protests and marijuana legalization. ByMonica Potts, Mary Radcliffe, and Cooper Burton Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Trump's trial isn't changing minds yet We're now in the second week of testimony in the trial of former President Donald Trump, in which he's accused of paying hush money to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
The 8 types of Democrats and Republicans in the House
We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses. ByTia Yang, Cooper Burton, Mary Radcliffe, Katie Marriner, and Amina Brown A new 538 analysis of voting data reveals that while many members' formal caucus affiliations matched up pretty well with their voting behaviors, some did not.
The 8 Types Of Democrats And Republicans In The House
We analyzed voting patterns to see if members actually vote with their caucuses. Some say Congress is a lot like high school — but who lawmakers vote with isn't necessarily who they sit with in the cafeteria. We were interested in whether members’ formal ideological caucus affiliations matched up with how they actually voted. Is every member of the Problem Solvers Caucus actually voting to advance bipartisan legislation?
Americans really love their governors
Pollsters differ on how much, but most hold high approval ratings. ByCooper Burton and Mary Radcliffe On a cool day last October, while federal officials in Washington, D.C., were squabbling to elect a new speaker of the House, Phil Scott was talking about construction. The Vermont governor stood in a spacious workshop outside Montpelier, the state capital, surrounded by wooden beams and workers wearing bright blue hard hats.
8 people who could be Trump's VP pick
ByNathaniel Rakich, G. Elliott Morris, Geoffrey Skelley and Cooper Burton Tuesday, March 26, 2024 10:15PM Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
How IVF and abortion access could shape the 2024 election
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Americans continue to support IVF and abortion access It's been just over a month since the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos are children and jeopardized access to in vitro fertilization treatments in the state, bringing the procedure to the forefront of reproductive rights politics.
Does Gen Z really care more about that viral TikTok than politics? Original
What is (and isn't) motivating young voters today. ByGalen Druke, G. Elliott Morris, Geoffrey Skelley, Tia Yang, and Cooper Burton The general election has begun in earnest and in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses how the country is feeling about it with a game of “Guess What Americans Think.” What percentage of Americans think the country is on the right track? Or that their preferred candidate will win?
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Two years into the war, American support for Ukraine is down
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Support is waning for American involvement in Ukraine Saturday marked two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, drawing opprobrium from around the world. But as the war has dragged on, American support for aiding Ukraine has started to wane. From the beginning, Americans supported helping Ukraine, but only to a certain extent.
Americans believe in climate change, but do they believe in love?
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our occasional polling column. Today we're trying out a new format — we've rounded up recent polls that caught our eye, including those on some of the biggest news items of the week: extreme weather, U.S. involvement in the Israel-Hamas war, the bipartisan border deal, the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day. Americans are worried about extreme weather Polling shows that Americans' doubts about whether climate change is real have diminished.
How often every member of Congress voted with Biden in 2023
Even for a divided Congress, the 118th Congress so far has been historically unproductive . That's in no small part because the House devoted much of its floor time to partisan bills with no chance of advancing in the Senate — not to mention two protracted periods where the House had no speaker. But lawmakers still managed to hold over 1,000 roll call votes between the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving us a trove of data to dissect and analyze.
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