David Karpf
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Elon Musk spent $44B to ruin Twitter. His midlife crisis shouldn't be our problem.
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Articles by David Karpf
What is the Great American State Fair like?
I stopped by the Great American State Fair on Tuesday. The website listed the day’s theme as "Innovation, Technology & Progress.” It doesn’t get more on-theme for The Future, Now & Then than that. I documented the trip in a bluesky thread, the highlights of which are featured on Flaming Hydra (have you subscribed to Flaming Hydra yet? It is the absolute best. Please subscribe.). The most striking part of the experience, really, was just how boring it all was.
On the Wired renaissance
❝ “If you still don’t understand why Wired covers politics, you are either willfully ignorant or a complete idiot.” -Katie Drummond, Wired EIC There’s been some murmuring among the tech barons about buying Wired magazine and turning it back into the magazine they remember from their youth. Anduril co-founder Trae Stephens wrote an X.com diatribe about this a couple weeks ago, where he complained that Wired still has good journalists, but they are focused on the wrong stories.
Why Centrist Democrats Keep Being Wrong About Elections Original
A team of centrist Democratic consultants thinks they've figured out what went wrong in the 2024 election. The problem, apparently, was that the Democratic Party was insufficiently nostalgic for 1992. The 60-page election postmortem report titled "Deciding to Win," was published by WelcomePAC-a political action committee that says it is working for a "big tent" Democratic Party but somehow lacks tent space for climate groups or trans people.
Opinion: The MAGA media takeover
American mass media has been transformed in these early months of President Donald Trump’s second administration.
The MAGA Media Takeover Original
American mass media has been transformed in these early months of President Donald Trump’s second administration.
It’s Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
OpenAI announced this week that it has raised $6.6 billion in new funding and that the company is now valued at $157 billion overall. This is quite a feat for an organization that reportedly burns through $7 billion a year—far more cash than it brings in—but it makes sense when you realize that OpenAI’s primary product isn’t technology. It’s stories.
Democracy After Truth
The Death of Truth: How Social Media and the Internet Gave Snake Oil Salesmen and Demagogues the Weapons They Needed to Destroy Trust and Polarize the World — and What We Can Do. By Steven Brill. New York: Knopf, 2024. 336 pp. Invisible Rulers: The People Who Turn Lies into Reality. By Renée DiResta. New York: PublicAffairs, 2024. 448 pp. Steven Brill’s new book, The Death of Truth, offers a sobering account of how America’s media and political systems went wrong.
FDA clears wearable vibration belt for postmenopausal women with osteopenia
Douglas P. Kiel, MD, MPH For many years, clinical trials testing whether low-magnitude mechanical signals to the skeleton can preserve bone mass have been inconsistent. With funding from a National Institute on Aging Small Business Innovation Research Grant, Bone Health Technologies tested a wearable belt with an incorporated motor transmitting low-amplitude, high-frequency (20 to 40 Hz) vibration to the spine and hips.
FDA clears wearable vibration belt for postmenopausal women with osteopenia
You've successfully added Endocrinology: Bone/Mineral Metabolism to your alerts. You will receive an email when new content is published. Click Here to Manage Email Alerts We were unable to process your request. Please try again later. If you continue to have this issue please contact customerservice@slackinc.com. Key takeaways: The FDA cleared a vibration belt to treat postmenopausal women with osteopenia.
ChatGPT’s FarmVille Moment
ChatGPT has certainly captured the world’s imagination since its release at the end of 2022. But in day-to-day life, it is still a relatively niche product—a curiosity that leads people to ask questions that begin “Have you tried … ?” or “What do you think about … ?” Its maker, OpenAI, has a much more expansive vision. Its aim is seemingly to completely remake how people use the internet. For that to happen, the bot needs to be more than a conversation starter: It has to be a functioning business.
The Curse of the Long Boom
A story in four parts, about predictions and what they’re ultimately good for: Dan Davies (whose Substack is an excellent read, by the way) wrote a post last week in which he coined Davies’ Law: “If you don’t make predictions, you’ll never know what to be surprised by.” This seems like the perfect starting point for our story. I love it. I hope very much to see Davies’ Law become A Thing. I’ve written around the edges of this topic before.
The Curse of the Long Boom
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It's time to admit that Bitcoin ideologues like Balaji Srinivasan are fools
After losing a million dollar bet, you should lose the presumption that you know what you're talking about First published by The Future, Now and Then Remember the Silicon Valley Bank collapse? It was only a couple months ago. All of Silicon Valley’s industry titans panicked in the group chat and managed to drive their favorite regional bank into insolvency.
Those meddling kids! The Reverse Scooby-Doo theory of tech innovation comes with the excuses baked in
There’s a standard trope that tech evangelists deploy when they talk about the latest fad. It goes something like this: 1. Technology XYZ is arriving. It will be incredible for everyone. It is basically inevitable. 2. The only thing that can stop it is regulators and/or incumbent industries. If they are so foolish as to stand in its way, then we won’t be rewarded with the glorious future that I am promising. We can think of this rhetorical move as a Reverse Scooby-Doo.
Those meddling kids! The Reverse Scooby-Doo theory of tech innovation comes with the excuses baked in
Another Air Force fleet grounded over fears plane tails may fall off The big search for a tiny component that could cause an airplane’s tail to fall off has uncovered the problem on at least two dozen Air Force jets …
This report sees journalistic “bias” less as partisanship and more as relying on too-comfortable habits
When people say the news is biased, what do they mean? Versions of the critique can range from the cartoonishly simple to the paralyzingly complex. On one end of the spectrum lie straightforward claims of journalistic corruption. (“George Soros pays reporters to write fake news!” “No reporter can tell the truth without getting fired by their corporate masters!”) On the other, there’s room for nuance. (Who was in the room when that story was pitched?
Money Will Kill ChatGPT’s Magic
Buzzy products like ChatGPT and DALL-E 2 will have to turn a profit eventually. Arthur C. Clarke once remarked, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” That ambient sense of magic has been missing from the past decade of internet history. The advances have slowed. Each new tablet and smartphone is only a modest improvement over its predecessor.
Thread by @davekarpf on Thread Reader App
The thing to understand about the Hunter Biden laptop story was that it was SUPPOSED to be the Trump campaign’s “October Surprise.” Mainstream media and social media were supposed to take the bait and focus on the appearance of scandal for the last weeks of the election. (1/x) They didn’t take the bait. The New York Post story was shunned. Social media platforms treated it as manufactured propaganda with questionable sourcing. And conservative elites have been PISSED ever since.
Association of Children’s Hospital Status With Value for Common Surgical Conditions
Association of Children’s Hospital Status With Value for Common Surgical Conditions | Pediatrics | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network [Skip to Navigation] Figure 1. Study Flowchart HCCI indicates Health Care Cost Institute; NPI, National Provider Identifier. Figure 2.
(Throwback Thursday)Lessons from the predictable failure of Americans Elect
There's an old saying that, once something is online, it is there forever. That's not actually true. As Jonathan Zittrain points out, " the internet is rotting." Blogs go offline, databases disappear, hyperlinks break. A lot of my old internet writing was at a site called ShoutingLoudly.com, started by a few friends while we were in grad school. It went offline a few years ago, and the posts are only accessible if you do some serious digging on the Wayback Machine. That bugs me.
An Open Letter to the American Political Science Association regarding John Eastman and the Claremont Institute
(Members of the APSA can sign on to this letter by clicking here) September 23, 2021 To the members of the APSA Council: On January 11, 2021, you issued the following statement on behalf of the APSA and its members: “The American Political Science Association strongly condemns President Trump, Republican legislators, and all those who have continuously endorsed and disseminated falsehoods and misinformation, and who have worked to overturn the results of a free and fair Presidential...
Virtual Reality Is the Rich White Kid of Technology
It has been seven years since Palmer Luckey appeared on the cover of WIRED magazine. The June 2014 issue declared, “This kid is about to change gaming, movies, TV, music, design, medicine, sex, sports, art, travel, social network, education—and reality.” This was just after Facebook acquired his virtual reality company, Oculus, for $2 billion.
Progressives want Biden to push for more infrastructure spending. It’s a sound strategy.
“You’ve convinced me. Now go out and make me do it.” That’s what Franklin Delano Roosevelt purportedly told a group of left-wing activists early in his presidency. FDR was an ally to their cause. But he cautioned them that nothing would get done without political pressure. Former interior secretary Bruce Babbitt said the same thing to a room full of environmental leaders in the early days of the Clinton administration.
A narrow Biden victory isn't enough to save democracy Original
Former vice president Joe Biden may prevail in the presidential election, but moving past the chaos of the past few years would take a bigger win than he'll probably have. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) By Wednesday evening, Joe Biden looks likelier to win the presidency once all the votes are counted. But he and the Democrats needed more than that: They needed a resounding victory, even beyond whatever the final electoral college and popular vote margins wind up being.
The Electoral Politics of Trump’s Diagnosis
Donald Trump and Melania Trump have been diagnosed with Covid-19. At a minimum, the president will spend early October in quarantine rather than on the campaign trail. Apart from what this means for his health, you’re probably wondering what it means for November 3. The simple answer is, no one really knows. But here’s what to keep your eye on. First, the uncertainty regarding the virus exposure itself.
Biden's Path to Victory Does Not Bode Well for Voters
There’s an interesting parallel between Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 Democratic primary and Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 Republican primary. Both ran weak campaigns that managed, through completely different means, to dominate “free” media coverage when it mattered most. And that free coverage outweighed all their election efforts’ floundering in other areas—fundraising, advertising, volunteer support, strategic communication choices.
Bernie’s Easy Path Has Closed, But the Harder Path Is Better
After the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada contests, Sanders was poised to capture 70 to 80 percent of California’s enormous haul of delegates while earning only a third of the votes. He might have won an insurmountable delegate lead without ever showing he could build a majority coalition within the party. Of course, we all know what happened next. The field cleared at the eleventh hour for Joe Biden after his South Carolina victory.
Two provocations for the study of digital politics in time
This article confronts some of the difficulties that temporality poses for the study of digital politics. Where previous articles have discussed the unique methodological challenges for digital politics research – centrally, that we face ceteris paribus problems when attempting to study how people use a medium that is itself still being developed – this article addresses the underlying subject of temporality itself. It offers two distinct provocations.
MoveOn Effect: The Unexpected Transformation of American Political Advocacy
David Karpf Abstract The internet is facilitating a generational transition within America’s advocacy group system. New “netroots” political associations have arisen in the past decade and play an increasingly prominent role in citizen political mobilization. At the same time, the organizations that mediate citizen political engagement and sustained collective action are changing. They rely upon modified staff structures and work routines. They employ novel strategies and tactical repertoires.
David Karpf Called Bret Stephens a Bedbug. Then the NYT Columnist Compared the Professor to a Nazi Propogandist.
New York Times columnist Bret Stephens went searching for an online insult last Monday night. He found a Twitter joke I wrote, calling him a metaphorical bedbug as a riff on the actual bedbugs reported in the Times offices. He tried to put me in my place, emailing me from his Times account and copying my university provost, daring me to come to his house, meet his wife and children, and call him a bedbug to his face. It did not go well for him, and has resulted in a riveting public meltdown.
I Called Bret Stephens A Bedbug. Then He Tried To Squelch My Freedom Of Speech. What A Day.
Photo credit: photo composite - Getty Images From Esquire Bret Stephens is above me in the status hierarchy. He knows this. I know this. He has won a Pulitzer Prize and has a regular op-ed column in the New York Times. I am just some professor. I’ve written two books, but unless you are professionally involved with digital politics, you probably have never heard of me. So I was surprised to receive an email from Bret Stephens last night.
People are calling me the bedbug professor. I really hope that name doesn’t stick
I teach classes in strategic political communication. Every week, for the last seven years, I have begun each class session with a simple question: “What happened in the news this week?” The idea is to draw out lessons about how strategy and power work in the digital age. I often joke that it is my job to have a professional opinion about the latest Twitter storm.
I Called Bret Stephens a Bedbug. Then He Tried to Squelch My Freedom of Speech. What a Day.
photo compositeGetty Images Bret Stephens is above me in the status hierarchy. He knows this. I know this. He has won a Pulitzer Prize and has a regular op-ed column in the New York Times. I am just some professor. I’ve written two books, but unless you are professionally involved with digital politics, you probably have never heard of me. So I was surprised to receive an email from Bret Stephens last night.
A Tale of Two Analytics Programs: It Really Matters What You Optimize For
Steve Olson wrote a real barnburner at Medium last week, “DCCC, I’m pleading with you.” [h/t Personal Democracy Forum FirstPost] He wasn’t the only one. Jenny Lawson wrote a nice post about the over-the-top fundraising language, “Nancy Pelosi Is extremely disappointed in me for destroying the Democratic Party.” And, of course, there’s also the ubiquitous Emails from the DCCC Tumblr site.
Something I No Longer Believe: Is Internet Time Slowing Down?
Introduction A 2012 article of mine pondered the pace of digital change online—“Internet Time”: The Internet of 2012 is different from the Internet of 2002. What is more, there is little reason to suppose this rapid evolution is finished: The Internet of 2022 will likely be different from the Internet of 2012. My central argument was that the Internet is unique among Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) because it keeps changing even as it is adopted by larger segments of the public.
Allah, hidden treasures, and the Divine Feminine
Historically, Muslim theology has been radically iconoclastic—God is not simply beyond gender but for most Muslims, also beyond anthropocentric similitudes. The idea of God the father is simply not part of the dominant Muslim imaginary. Instead Muslim theology speaks of ungendered multitudinous divine attributes as a way for humanity to relate to the One all-encompassing God.
Predicting the Future of Technology and Power: A Conversation
Scholars, journalists, and technologists alike are prone to making bold predictions—both optimistic and pessimistic—about the ever-changing relationship between media, technology, and politics. Less frequently, however, do they look back on failed prognostications and draw lessons from them.
016-TransCon GH as a Long-Acting Growth Hormone for the Treatment of Pediatric Growth Hormone Deficiency
To view the full text, please login as a subscribed user or purchase a subscription. Click here to view the full text on ScienceDirect. Background: With growth hormone (GH) receptors present on virtually all cells, GH replacement therapy should aim for the same exposure and tissue distribution as endogenous GH and current daily GH therapies.
The Modern Origins of Our Epistemic Crisis: A Media & Democracy Workshop
A well-functioning democracy, it is commonly held, depends on an informed citizenry, and that informed citizenry in turn depends on the Fourth Estate—the collection of organizations that constitute the news media. Alas, in recent years, this pillar of democratic politics has been eroding.
Will the Revolution Be A/B-Tested?
Chapter: (p.1) 1 Will the Revolution Be A/B-Tested?Source: Analytic ActivismAuthor(s): David Karpf Publisher: Oxford University Press DOI:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780190266127.003.0001 This introductory chapter defines the key terms and concepts in the book, including analytic activism, the media theory of movement power, the culture of testing, and the analytics floor and analytics frontier and provides narrative examples of each of these concepts to help clarify them for the reader.
How to Hack an Election (Without Touching the Machines)
On Monday morning, just 24 hours before polls opened in the US midterm elections, President Trump sounded an alarm with a Tweet: “Law Enforcement has been strongly notified to watch closely for any ILLEGAL VOTING which may take place in Tuesday’s Election (or Early Voting). Anyone caught will be subject to the Maximum Criminal Penalty allowed by law.
When, Exactly, Did Politics Become a Tech Story?
For WIRED's October issue, David Karpf read every issue of the magazine, in chronological order. He'll be writing a series about the patterns and insights he found in 25 years of stories about the future. When politics professors like myself tell the story of the internet, there are a few touchstone events. The biggest is the Battle of Seattle, the vibrant, vocal antiglobalization protest convened at the city’s convention center in 1999.
Today’s News Crises Are Different, But Will Never Be Entirely New
For WIRED's October issue, David Karpf read every issue of the magazine, in chronological order. He'll be writing more about the patterns and insights he found in 25 years of stories about what's coming. Ideas about the future endure through the years, like a fixed horizon of expectations. Nowhere is that clearer than in WIRED’s journalism about the future of journalism. Since the magazine was launched, journalism has always appeared on the verge of crisis.
A Media Theory of Movement Power
Editors’ note: Movement organizations are dealing with an increasingly varied media and technological landscape, and that requires our use of a different set of tools and strategies. This article, which is drawn (with some minor alterations) from David Karpf’s new book, Analytic Activism: Digital Listening and the New Political Strategy (Oxford University Press, 2016), provides a useful disruption of antiquated assumptions about the interfaces between movement and medium.
A Media Theory of Movement Power
Editors’ note: Movement organizations are dealing with an increasingly varied media and technological landscape, and that requires our use of a different set of tools and strategies. This article, which is drawn (with some minor alterations) from David Karpf’s new book, Analytic Activism: Digital Listening and the New Political Strategy (Oxford University Press, 2016), provides a useful disruption of antiquated assumptions about the interfaces between movement and medium.
25 Years of WIRED Predictions: Why the Future Never Arrives
On the cover of WIRED's eighth issue, the Pillsbury Doughboy stands against a wall, flanked by two men wearing neckties. All are blindfolded, stricken with terror. Together they face a firing squad of mismatched TV remotes. The cover line reads: “Is Advertising Finally Dead?” By all appearances, the cover promised yet another gleeful epitaph for the declining institutions of the analog age.
The Infowars Purge, and Life among Responsible Information Monopolies
(Adapted and updated from my remarks at the 2018 International Communication Association Annual Meeting.) Now that most of the major social media platforms have done something about Alex Jones/Infowars, I think it’s worth taking a minute to think about what we should expect from our social media platforms. Should we be concerned that Google and Facebook can essentially silence a program for vague Terms of Service violations? In the abstract, yeah. Sure.
Philanthropy Intervenes to Fight the Misuse of Facebook’s Social Data
In the midst of Mark Zuckerberg’s visit to Congress and the ongoing headlines about Cambridge Analytica’s exploitation of Facebook data, there is one potential silver lining: the newly-announced “Social Data Initiative” that will be hosted by the Social Science Research Council. The Social Data Initiative is a partnership between the social media giant, academic researchers, and several large foundations.
The MoveOn Effect
https://global.oup.com/academic/covers/pop-up/9780199898381 The Unexpected Transformation of American Political Advocacy David Karpf Oxford Studies in Digital Politics The first detailed scholarly investigation of MoveOn.org - how it operates, how it engages its member/supporters, and how these practices are changing political advocacy in general. An analysis of Looks at the Description The Internet is facilitating a generational transition within America's advocacy group system.
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