With the Strait of Hormuz closed, national oil reserves have been steadily depleting, and will empty by the end of the summer, halting most economic activity, globally. Ahead of us is an energy supply cliff; that is when oil runs out. It does not just mean the oil price rises again, which is an inflation problem. It is when there is not enough oil. Oil is hard-wired to economic output. When oil is in short supply, output stops. It does not just get more expensive.