Dennis Smith on Muck Rack

Dennis Smith

Verified
Chicago
As seen in: Wiley Online Library, PR Newswire, ACS Publications, Gartner, Daily Business Review, Cincinnati Enquirer, Anchorage Daily News, BW Businessworld, WFMZ-TV (Allentown, PA), WatchUSeek.com and
Commodity broker/livestock analyst for over 34 years. Publishes evening livestock wire followed widely by the industry. DM for a free trial.
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Articles

No bull in the hogs

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By Dennis Smith Verified
| National Hog Farmer Verified
The bullish trade in lean hog futures is completely missing. The current seasonal tendencies are bullish but futures remain locked in a down trend. The cash seasonal is higher. Cash is stuck going sideways with no urgency noted by packer bids. The product seasonal tendencies are bullish at this time of year. The cutout is still trading below $100 with no urgency noted in hams and bellies. Funds have just flipped from being net long futures to net short futures.
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The pork seasonals turn bullish

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By Dennis Smith Verified
| National Hog Farmer Verified
The normal basis for June hogs for early May is around 7 to 10 cents under. Currently June futures are priced 10 cents over the index, so the basis is normal. The seasonal production in pork production always experiences a decline into the summer months, thus futures go into summer priced over the cash. This is normal and no surprise. But my question is; will hog supplies experience a greater than normal decline in numbers this summer?
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Pork fundamentals point to a bullish outlook

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By Dennis Smith Verified
| National Hog Farmer Verified
The hog chart pattern is clearly bullish going into the spring/summer season. After posting a bottom in November, front month April rallied from $81.00 to $99.80 with the contract high posted in early February. This action was then followed with a major downward correction with prices breaking $9.00 off the highs yet futures only spent two days below the 50-day moving average.
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