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Articles by Eva Vivalt
Forecasting Social Science: Evidence from 100 Projects
We thank Mihai Codreanu, Anna Dreber Almenberg, Angela Duckworth, Thomas Graeber, Donald Green, Ian Krajbich, David McKenzie, Rachael Meager, Barbara Mellers, Edward Miguel, Katherine Milkman, Don Moore, Brian Nosek, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Philip Tetlock, Mattie Toma, Severine Toussaert, Robb Willer and audiences at EIEF, FRI, UC Berkeley, UCLA and USC. We are grateful to an outstanding team of research assistants -- Leo Dai, Kevin Didi, Malek Hassouneh, Rohan Jha, and Francis Priestland.
The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States
We thank the non-profit organizations that implemented the program we study.
Predicting research results can mean better science and better advice
We ask experts for advice all the time. A company might ask an economist for advice on how to motivate its employees. A government might ask what the effect of a policy reform will be. To give the advice, experts often would like to draw on the results of an experiment. But they don’t always have relevant experimental evidence. Collecting expert predictions about research results could be a powerful new tool to help improve science - and the advice scientists give.
Predicting research results can mean better science and better advice
Putting scientific results under the microscope before they are even collected could help improve science as a whole. Credit: Konstantin Kolosov/Shutterstock We ask experts for advice all the time. A company might ask an economist for advice on how to motivate its employees. A government might ask what the effect of a policy reform will be. To give the advice, experts often would like to draw on the results of an experiment. But they don't always have relevant experimental evidence.
Predicting research results can mean better science and better advice
Putting scientific results under the microscope before they are even collected could help improve science as a whole. Konstantin Kolosov/Shutterstock We ask experts for advice all the time. A company might ask an economist for advice on how to motivate its employees. A government might ask what the effect of a policy reform will be. To give the advice, experts often would like to draw on the results of an experiment. But they don’t always have relevant experimental evidence.
Predicting research results can mean better science and better advice
We ask experts for advice all the time. A company might ask an economist for advice on how to motivate its employees. A government might ask what the effect of a policy reform will be. To give the advice, experts often would like to draw on the results of an experiment. But they don’t always have relevant experimental evidence. Collecting expert predictions about research results could be a powerful new tool to help improve science - and the advice scientists give.
Predict science to improve science
Policy ForumSocial Science Stefano DellaVigna1, Devin Pope2, Eva Vivalt3 1Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. 2The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL, USA. 3Research School of Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia. Email: eva.vivalt{at}anu.edu.au See allHide authors and affiliations Science 25 Oct 2019: Vol. 366, Issue 6464, pp.
How to Be a Smart Consumer of Social Science Research
Academic studies in the social sciences often find very different results. Given this variability, how should we consume evidence? The immediate answer is to not rely too much on any one study. Whenever possible, look for meta-analyses or systematic reviews that synthesize results from many studies, as they can provide more-credible evidence and sometimes suggest reasons that results differ. Second, when considering how much weight to give a study’s results, pay attention to its sample size.
Dr Eva Vivalt's research suggests social science findings don’t generalize. So evidence-based development
Robert Wiblin: Hi listeners, this is the 80,000 Hours Podcast, the show about the world’s most pressing problems and how you can use your career to solve them. I’m Rob Wiblin, Director of Research at 80,000 Hours. Before we get into it just a few quick announcements. If you think of yourself as part of the effective altruism community you should fill out the 2018 effective altruism survey. This helps keep track of who is involved, how they’re trying to improve the world, and what they believe.
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