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Articles by Ian Lesser
Fragmentation by Design? Reading Morocco’s 2026 Election Beyond the Results
The author of this opinion, Chaimae Bourjij, is a 2019 alumna of the Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leaders Program. An election result tells only part of a country’s political story. The rules that turn votes into seats also shape which voices reach Parliament, how local interests are represented, and whether any party can claim a clear mandate.
The ‘Strategic Possibilities Frontier’ of Global Reconfiguration
In the first seven Policy Briefs of this ongoing series of analysis on Pan-Atlanticism: The Atlantic Basin in a Multipolar-Transnational World, we developed the argument that the strategic significance of the Atlantic Basin is on the rise for a range of international actors (states, regions and non-state agents) and from distinct political or ideological perspectives.
The EU State of the Union Address
About the United States, Without the United States By Dr. Ian Lesser In her lengthy speech addressing issues affecting Europe and its place in the world, Ursula von der Leyen did not mention the United States once. There were multiple references to China, Russia, the war in Ukraine, conflicts from the Middle East to the Balkans and, of course, a partnership with Canada.
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Taking Down the Sign: Carney’s Wake-Up Call to Middle Powers
On every street, other shopkeepers do the same. They display the slogan not out of conviction but to avoid trouble, signal compliance, and make everyday life a little easier. The system endures not because people believe in its message, but because they continue to act as if they do. Mark Carney returned to this story in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Internationally Fragmented Data Could Lead to Geopolitically Antagonistic AI
Impressive progress continues to be made in artificial intelligence (AI). The use of AI applications in daily life is increasing, from sophisticated chatbots to self-driving taxis, such as those operated by Alphabet’s Waymo in the United States, or Baidu’s Apollo Go in China. More importantly, AI is evolving from generative AI to , becoming more autonomous. In this context, public debate about AI’s potential benefits and costs—or negative consequences—has understandably intensified.
The United States and Venezuela: Beyond the Bilateral Dimension
The United States and Venezuela: Beyond the Bilateral Dimension Related topics: This episode examines the evolving U.S.–Venezuela relationship amid renewed U.S. assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere. It discusses Venezuela’s democratic crisis, the failure of the Barbados Accords, and the limits of resistance in a global order increasingly shaped by power politics. The conversation also explores oil negotiations, sanctions, and the geopolitical narratives used to justify U.S. actions.
Maduro Captured: GMF Experts Offer Analysis of Washington’s Extraordinary Strike on Venezuela and Removal of the Country’s Leader
By Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer The US military operation leading to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has had immediate strategic repercussions well beyond Latin America and the Western Hemisphere. Across global capitals, the January 3 action was widely interpreted as a test case for US power projection, international law, and geopolitical competition.
What to Watch at the UN General Assembly
By Ian O. Lesser This year’s UN General Assembly (UNGA) will put the divide on many—but not all—of the most pressing issues between the United States and its allies on full display. In the run-up to the gathering, several US partners, notably France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Portugal announced their recognition of a Palestinian state. Others including Belgium have offered conditional recognition. Germany and Italy have stood aside, as Washington makes its opposition clear.
The US and the Current International Reconfiguration: Implications for Pan-Atlanticism and International Relations in the Atlantic Basin (PART 1)
It is clearly not just the future of pan-Atlantic cooperation and Atlantic Basin regionalism (notions of which many people remain completely unaware) that must be reassessed in light of the range and force of the ‘Trump shock’. But like the many other national, corporate, and transnational strategic reassessments now taking place worldwide, this one could also be pregnant with new possibilities.
Kaum Widerstand gegen Trump: Schafft sich die Demokratische Partei selbst ab?
Donald Trump hat die Republikanische Partei fest unter Kontrolle. Gegner muss er nicht fürchten, bisher zumindest. Er treibt mit seinen Getreuen und opportunistischen Kräften das Land vor sich her und agiert mehr und mehr autokratisch. Von den Demokraten war bisher weder Opposition noch eine Gegenstrategie zu erwarten. Die Partei wirkt wie gelähmt und ist nur mit sich selbst beschäftigt. Werden die Demokraten Trump überleben? Oder schafft sich die Demokratische Partei selbst ab?
Trump will mit Putin telefoniert haben: Kann er den Kremlchef zu Verhandlungen zwingen?
© © The White House US-Präsident Trump will Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine schnell beenden – doch das geht nicht ohne Kremlchef Putin. Angeblich haben die beiden nun telefoniert. Was kann das bringen? Von Gwendolyn Sasse Ian Lesser Liana Fix Heute, 14:32 Uhr Donald Trump sieht sich gerne als Friedensbringer, als Dealmaker, als mächtigsten Mann der Welt. Und so hat er sich unter anderem zum Ziel gesetzt, Russlands Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine schnell zu beenden.
The NATO Washington Summit and the Southern Flank
For 75 years, NATO strategy toward its southern flank has generally taken a back seat to more demanding and existential requirements in the East. At a time of war in Ukraine and an increasingly dangerous confrontation with Russia, security challenges emanating from the South—from Africa to the Persian Gulf—will not top the alliance’s summit agenda in Washington, DC. But these challenges are critical to transatlantic security in their own right and as an element in the conflict with Moscow.
Gaza y sus derivadas: una perspectiva de seguridad transatlántica
Tema El presente análisis explora las implicaciones para las relaciones transatlánticas de la guerra abierta en Gaza. Resumen El 7 de octubre de 2023 los ataques de Hamás y la posterior ofensiva israelí en Gaza volvieron a sumergir a Oriente Medio en un estado de agitación, con importantes implicaciones diplomáticas y de seguridad no sólo para Oriente Medio sino para la región euroatlántica en un sentido más amplio.
Gaza y sus derivadas: una perspectiva de seguridad transatlántica
Tema El presente análisis explora las implicaciones para las relaciones transatlánticas de la guerra abierta en Gaza. Resumen El 7 de octubre de 2023 los ataques de Hamás y la posterior ofensiva israelí en Gaza volvieron a sumergir a Oriente Medio en un estado de agitación, con importantes implicaciones diplomáticas y de seguridad no sólo para Oriente Medio sino para la región euroatlántica en un sentido más amplio.
Gaza and after: a transatlantic security perspective
Theme This analysis discusses the implications of the ongoing war in Gaza for transatlantic relations. Summary The October 7 2023 Hamas attacks and Israel’s ensuing offensive in Gaza have sent the Middle East back into a state of turmoil. This will have important security and diplomatic implications not only for the Middle East but also for the broader Euro-Atlantic region.
The Ukraine war and the East Med | eKathimerini.com
The war in Ukraine is a storm raging in Europe’s east. But its consequences will be felt in the south. The Eastern Mediterranean is likely to be affected in a variety of ways, with particular implications for Greece and its neighbors. Russia’s presence and actions are one element in this equation. The effects of the war on the global order and the aspirations of regional powers are another. To these must be added a general rise in insecurity of all kinds, alongside new ideological cleavages.
Dall'Africa al Mediterraneo, Lesser (Gmf) svela la strategia Usa
Gli Stati Uniti sono una potenza mediterranea da oltre 200 anni, sebbene non abbiano mai dedicato un’attenzione specifica al Mediterraneo come spazio strategico a sé stante. Tradizionalmente, gli interessi americani nel Mediterraneo sono stati un’appendice di questioni più ampie, che spesso originavo in aree lontane dalle coste mediterranee. Ciò è in netto contrasto con l’approccio europeo e persino russo.
[Opinion] A coronavirus 'Marshall Plan' alone won't be nearly enough
Senior figures across Europe, from the presidents of the European Council and the European Parliament to the prime minister of Spain and the head of the OECD have all called for a "Marshall Plan" to deal with the enormous human and economic costs of the Covid-19 crisis. The Marshall Plan has also been invoked in the American debate over a two trillion dollar stimulus and compensation package. The symbolism is powerful.
EPP head says SYRIZA government delayed Greece's program exit | Kathimerini
European People’s Party president Manfred Weber welcomed on Sunday Greece’s completion of its third bailout program, but said the country could have exited sooner if it wasn’t run by the SYRIZA-led coalition. “It is good that Greece exits its bailout. Nevertheless we don’t have to forget that due to the SYRIZA government this didn’t happen much earlier and much cheaper for the Greek people,” he said in a tweet.
Myconos hit by water cuts, Yiannis Elafros | Kathimerini
The glamorous Aegean holiday island of Myconos has been plagued by repeated water cuts this summer due to increased power consumption impacting desalination plants. Authorities attribute the water shortage to the lower productivity of desalination plants due to power cuts caused by the surge in electricity consumption resulting from the arrival of thousands of visitors on the island. The areas most affected include Platis Yialos, Ornos, Aghios Ioannis, Aleomandra and the region of Peteinaros.
Varoufakis says biggest mistake was trusting Tsipras | Kathimerini
Almost three years after the SYRIZA-ANEL coalition government signed the third bailout program and two days before Greece is set to complete it, former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said his biggest mistake during his tumultuous tenure was “trusting Tsipras.” “My mistake was trusting Mr. Tsipras - [trusting] that we had been elected with a clear mandate not to extend the country’s debt colony status with a new memorandum and that we would fight until the end to link the total debt and the...
Cyprus extradites Egyptian hijacker who dropped legal fight, MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS, SAMY MAGDY | Kathimerini
An Egyptian man who hijacked a domestic EgyptAir flight in 2016 and ordered it to land in Cyprus has been extradited to his homeland after giving up a drawn-out legal fight, authorities said Sunday. Seif Eddin Mustafa was transferred to Egyptian custody and flown back to Egypt late Saturday, where prosecutors are investigating the incident.
Regling in Kathimerini: First half of 2015 cost Greece 86-200 bln euros, * KLAUS REGLING | Kathimerini
I remember my relief when euro area leaders agreed with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on an ESM assistance package in the early morning of 12 July 2015. This formed the basis for the new programme for Greece, which euro finance ministers approved on 19 August 2015. Crucially, it allowed the country to stay in the monetary union and to restart the reform process.
Low-key televised address to mark bailout program exit, Dora Antoniou | Kathimerini
The Greek government will opt for a muted acknowledgement of the country’s exit from its third and final bailout on Monday, as the deadly wildfire that killed at least 96 people in east Attica last month and turbulence in the international markets caused by Turkey’s economic woes rule out public appetite for bigger celebrations.
Search continues for missing Greek-American off Oinousses | Kathimerini
Greek coast guard vessels, one Navy ship and several privately-owned boats on Sunday were continuing for a second day the search for a 22-year-old Greek-American who went missing after the boat he was on with three more passengers capsized off the Oinousses complex of islands in the eastern Aegean on Saturday morning.
Stournaras says Greece has 'a long way to go' after exiting bailout, Eirini Chrysolora | Kathimerini
Greece still has ‘a long way to go’ to fix imbalances in its economy and problems in the functioning of the state after the country officially exits its latest bailout program on Monday, the country’s central bank governor said in an interview with Kathimerini, published on Sunday.
Tax scam under investigation, Prokopis Hatzinikolaou | Kathimerini
Greece’s Independent Authority for Public Revenue (IAPR) is reportedly planning to send thousands of notices to taxpayers who amended their initial tax declarations and managed to either significantly reduce their due tax or to secure large tax refunds due to suspicion of widespread tax fraud.
Six in every 10 businesses audited have broken the law | Kathimerini
Tax evasion remains rampant in Greece, as raids by tax officers nationwide have shown that 60 percent of businesses audited have violated Greek tax legislation. Violations include failure to issue receipts, using POS terminals registered in other countries and tampering with cash registers. Audits have revealed tax dodging by construction firms, doctors, bailiffs, tour operators, gas stations and even the unemployed and retirees.
Father of released soldier posts message of thanks | Kathimerini
The father of Dimitris Kouklatzis, one of the two Greek soldiers that were released from a Turkish prison in Edirne last Tuesday, thanked God and the country’s political, military and religious authorities in a long Facebook post on Saturday. Kouklatzis and Angelos Mitretodis were arrested on March 1 after crossing the Turkish border during a routine patrol.
Wildfire put out in Kassandra forest | Kathimerini
A wildfire in a pine forest near the Aghia Paraskevi area on the Kassandra leg of northern Greece’s Halkidiki peninsula was brought under control on Saturday, the fire service said. The fire led to the deployment of 40 firemen, two water-dropping aircraft and 10 fire engines, authorities said. More than 90 people died after a wildfire ravaged the seaside settlement of Mati, east of Athens, on July 23.
Fresh call for snap elections in Greece | Kathimerini
As Greece prepares for its official exit from its third bailout program on Monday, the country’s conservative opposition on Saturday renewed its call for snap elections.
Greek leaders pay tribute to Kofi Annan | Kathimerini
Greece’s political leadership paid tribute to former United Nations secretary-general and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Kofi Annan who has died at the age of 80. Annan, a Ghanaian national, died in hospital in Bern, Switzerland on Saturday.
Papadopoulos faces jail over lies to FBI | Kathimerini
Greek American George Papadopoulos, a former member of the foreign policy advisory panel to Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, could face up to six months in jail. Robert Mueller, who heads a special counsel created to investigate alleged Russian meddling in the presidential campaign, recommended the prison sentence for Papdopoulos, who has admitted to having lied to the FBI about his contacts with Russian go-betweens.
Police seize 246 kg of cannabis in Epirus | Kathimerini
Authorities in Epirus, northwestern Greece, seized 246 kilograms of cannabis in two police operations on Friday and Saturday. Police arrested a 52-year-old woman on Saturday after finding 102 kg of the drug in her car in the region of Komboti in Arta. On Friday, police confiscated 144 kg of cannabis found in an abandoned car in the region of Nea Selefkia in Thesprotia. The car, which was also confiscated, had been reported stolen on July 13.
Alpha Bank report: Athens must stick to fiscal pledges | Kathimerini
The Turkish lira crisis and questions over the fiscal prudence of the new Italian government have significantly increased the uncertainty in international equity and bond markets, Alpha Bank said in its weekly report published on Friday.
Centeno warns Greece against tweaking reforms | Kathimerini
Any changes in reforms that are being implemented in Greece as part of its adjustment program and any future reforms to be implemented after the program’s completion will have to be agreed with its creditors, Eurogroup President Mario Centeno told Ta Nea newspaper’s weekend edition.
Bids deadline for Cyclades power connection extended | Kathimerini
Greece’s Independent Power Transmission Operator (ADMIE) has extended the deadline for bids for the third phase in the construction of a cable link connecting the Cyclades islands in the Aegean Sea to the mainland grid. Companies have until September 3 to submit their offers as opposed to an original deadline of August 23. The project concerns a 150 KV cable connecting the island of Syros to the Attica port of Lavrio, which is intended to bolster the existing cable connection to the mainland.
DEPA splitting next month | Kathimerini
The management of the Public Gas Corporation (DEPA) will enlist foreign consultants to help implement its plans to split the company into two – as part of the process of its privatization – reports said Friday. According to the deal with Greece’s creditors for DEPA’s sell-off, the company will be split into two – DEPA Infrastructure, which will have all of the country’s networks and international projects, and a commercial part.
Greek gov’t plans low-key bailout exit, Dora Antoniou | Kathimerini
Yorgos Vagelakos, 81, holds a notebook reading their debts to the local pharmacy, at his home in Keratsini suburb, near Athens. Greece will exit its bailout program on Monday after eight years of highly unpopular memorandums, but the government’s plans to mark the occasion with fanfare have been dashed by the fallout from the deadly Attica fires on July 23 which left almost 100 dead.
Former UN chief and Nobel peace laureate Kofi Annan dies aged 80 | Kathimerini
Former United Nations Secretary-General and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Kofi Annan has died at the age of 80, his foundation said on Saturday. Annan, a Ghanaian national, died in hospital in Bern, Switzerland, in the early hours of Saturday, two of his close associates said. In Geneva, the Kofi Annan Foundation announced his peaceful death with “immense sadness” after a short illness, saying he was surrounded in his last days by his second wife Nane and children Ama, Kojo and Nina.
Fire survivor sues officials | Kathimerini
A woman who lost her family in last month’s Attica wildfires has filed a criminal lawsuit against seven officials, claiming that state services’ “total lack of communication and confusion” caused the tragedy that claimed 96 lives. Varvara Voukaki, who lost her husband, 54, son, 11, and daughter, 13, in the July 23 fires, submitted the lawsuit Friday.
Erdogan says Turkey will defy economic threats | Kathimerini
Turkey’s president has said his country will stand strong against an “attempted economic coup” amid heightened tensions with the US.
Police to boost patrols on Philopappou Hill after death, Yiannis Souliotis | Kathimerini
As detectives continue their investigation into the death of a 25-year-old man who fell off a cliff onto rocks on Philopappou Hill after being mugged on Wednesday night, the Greek Police (ELAS) on Friday decided to boost patrols of the popular central Athens park. After senior police officers visited the scene of the crime on Friday, it emerged that police will henceforth conduct regular patrols of the park on foot and on off-road motorcycles.
Greece-Israel-Cyprus summit brought forward, Vassilis Nedos | Kathimerini
This fall’s planned trilateral summit in Jerusalem between Greece, Cyprus and Israel at the foreign ministry level has been brought forward to September 13. The meeting between Greece’s Nikos Kotzias, Cyprus’s Nikos Christodoulides and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who holds his government’s foreign affairs portfolio, will take place amid increased gas exploration activity in the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkish plans to drill in the region.
Greek bailout ends, but Europe's debt problems grind on, DAVID McHUGH | Kathimerini
Greece officially completes its bailout program on Monday, after eight years of cutbacks enforced in return for massive loans and following an economic collapse on the scale of the Great Depression. The exit is a welcome milestone. But it offers little assurance that the 19-country euro currency union has left behind its problems with debt. The huge debt pile in Greece and an even bigger one in Italy will remain a lurking financial threat to Europe that could take a generation to defuse.
Berlin heralds deal with Greece to return migrants, Yiannis Elafros | Kathimerini
The German government Friday heralded a deal with Athens for the return of migrants who applied for asylum in Greece and then turned up at Germany’s border with Austria. It is expected to lead to the imminent return of some 2,000 migrants to Greece. The return agreement will apply to asylum seekers registered in Greece by the Eurodac system – the European Union’s fingerprint database – the spokeswoman for the German Ministry of the Interior announced.
E-platform for short-term rentals ready by end-August | Kathimerini
The electronic tax platform for property owners to register income from short-term rentals as advertised on Airbnb and other websites will be up and running by the end of August, the head of the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (IAPR), Giorgos Pitsilis, said on Friday. “The platform for short-term rentals will open very soon. Notwithstanding any unforeseen events, the platform will have gone live by the end of the month,” he said in comments to Greek broadcaster ANT1 TV.
Stocks post small gains in week’s last session | Kathimerini
Following intense profit-taking at the Greek stock market on Thursday, Friday’s trading session started with hopes that the benchmark would post a robust rise. However, subsequent pressure on banking stocks dashed that optimism, and threatened to push the main index into negative territory.
Man hospitalized after refugee brawl | Kathimerini
A man was seriously injured in a fierce brawl at a refugee camp at Thermopyles in central Greece, authorities said on Friday. The fight, which occurred on Thursday afternoon, involved three refugees, and one of them lost consciousness after being hit on the head with a heavy object. The injured man was rushed to hospital in the nearby city of Lamia after police intervened to break up the brawl. It was not clear why the fight started.
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