Jackson Huang

With Timor-Leste’s entry to ASEAN possibly taking place as early as October 2025, researchers Jackson Huang and Yao Bowen discuss whether Dili’s close ties with major powers like China could risk ASEAN becoming further divided on key regional issues. After years of anticipation, Timor-Leste is finally nearing ASEAN membership, with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announcing during the 46th ASEAN Summit that it could be formalised as early as October 2025.

For much of the past few decades, China’s engagement with the global south has been defined as importing raw materials and financing large-scale infrastructure abroad. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China signed around 340 BRI-related deals across 149 countries, totalling US$121.8 billion in investments and contracts, funding railways, highways, ports and energy projects across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Findings from researcher Jackson Huang’s recent visit to Timor-Leste suggest that while Chinese economic engagement with Timor-Leste is often viewed as part of a broader “grand strategy”, the reality on the ground shows that local economic needs, market conditions and pragmatic considerations drive many aspects of the relationship beyond political agendas.