“Everyone has an opinion. On Polymarket, you can actually get paid for yours.” But most people don’t get paid on the prediction market. Most people end up losing money - typically a few bucks. Since Polymarket launched in 2022, a few thousand people have lost the bulk of the money … … and an even smaller group - .05 percent of users - has gone home with most of the overall profits , according to a new analysis from finance researcher Pat Akey and colleagues.