Meredith Conroy
United States
PhD in Political Science || Professor || @Fivethirtyeight contributor🦊 || Research @GeenaDavisOrg || Tweets about gender/media/politics
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Articles by Meredith Conroy
Trump's record number of executive orders are testing the limits of presidential power Original
He's quickly undoing Biden's orders, too. Trump signed (and revoked) a record number of executive orders in the first couple weeks of his second term. ABC News, Julien Behal Photography Pool, AP Photo/Ben Curtis Before his inauguration, President Donald Trump vowed to sign 100 executive orders on his first day in office. And while he didn't hit that mark on Day 1, the number and breadth of executive actions he's taken so far has been historic, and potentially unlawful.
What did we learn from Trump's first week?
Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. tia.yang (Tia Yang, senior editor): President Donald Trump's second term began on Monday, and he's already taken a record number of executive actions. A lot has happened this week, so today we thought we'd debrief and discuss what mattered most (or least), what it tells us about how Trump is approaching his second presidency and what we might expect moving forward. So, what stood out to you all the most this week?
Has the number of women in Congress hit a ceiling?
After several election cycles of progress in expanding the number of women in Congress, and following a record-breaking cycle for female governors, the 2024 election saw this progress stall, as gains in some areas balanced out losses in others.
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
His appeals to young men and men of color may have paid off. ByMeredith Conroy, Tia Yang, and Katie Marriner November 19, 2024, 5:10 PM Not long before polls began closing on Election Day, Stephen Miller, a longtime adviser whom President-elect Donald Trump has since tapped as his deputy chief of policy, shared a post on X mentioning an "after-work surge of men" voting: "Get every man you know to the polls," Miller added.
Election Day 2024: Live results and analysis
Live Getty Images/AP Election Night 2024: ABC News Live The big day is finally here: Tuesday, Nov. 5, is Election Day across the U.S. Millions of people are heading to the polls today — joining more than 80 million who already voted early or by mail — to decide who controls everything from the White House to Congress to state and local governments. All eyes are, of course, on the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Will Gen Z Women Be Decisive in 2024?
With less than two weeks until the election and polls showing a tight race, Gen Z is expected to play a decisive role. While a lot of media coverage has been talking about Gen Z men (like here, here, here, here and here), Dr. Melissa Deckman, author of the new book, The Politics of Gen Z: How the Youngest Voters Will Shape Our Democracywith Columbia University Press, has plenty of evidence that tells us Gen Z women are the ones to watch.
Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries Original
But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing. As they have for several decades now, Democrats are nominating many more women than Republicans are in their party's primaries. And what happens in the primaries doesn't stay in the primaries.
How Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
The Oprah Effect. The Colbert Bump. The Swift Surge? On Tuesday night, soon after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ended, Taylor Swift told her 280 million Instagram followers that she would be casting her vote for Harris and Tim Walz. The endorsement comes after "a year of paranoid speculation" as Vox.com termed it, as fans and foes alike publicly hunted for clues to determine whether the pop superstar planned to weigh in.
How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
The Oprah Effect. The Colbert Bump. The Swift Surge? On Tuesday night, soon after the presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump ended, Taylor Swift told her 280 million Instagram followers that she would be casting her vote for Harris and Tim Walz. The endorsement comes after "a year of paranoid speculation" as Vox.com termed it, as fans and foes alike publicly hunted for clues to determine whether the pop superstar planned to weigh in.
What you might've missed at the DNC
Democrats have leaned into themes of "joy" and "freedom" this week. ByTia Yang, Monica Potts, Meredith Conroy, and Nathaniel Rakich Welcome to 538's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. tia.yang (Tia Yang, senior editor): This week, Democrats (and our own Nathaniel Rakich!) are gathered in Chicago for the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign? Original
She's already responding to a slew of gendered and racist attacks. With Vice President Kamala Harris now the expected Democratic nominee for president, she'll be the second woman, and first woman of color, to receive a major political party's nomination for president in the United States.
How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign?
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Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind Original
We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year. Today, Democratic women make up 41 percent and Republican women make up just 15 percent of their respective parties' members of Congress. And of the 12 female governors currently serving, eight are Democrats. That discrepancy is due in part to what happens in the parties' respective primaries, where interest groups and candidates spar over the direction of their parties and just which candidates should represent them.
Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
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LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is another busy primary day, with voters in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia heading to the polls to decide who will be on the ballot this fall. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the election results as they come in. We’re tracking nearly a dozen races that could have implications for who wins the Senate and House in November, as well as how far right or left the new Congress will be. Join us below for up-to-the-minute vote counts and analysis.
By Meredith Conroy, Brittany Shepherd, Nathaniel Rakich, Jacob Rubashkin, G. Elliott Morris Verified
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abcnews.go.com
Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is another busy primary day, with voters in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia heading to the polls to decide who will be on the ballot this fall. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the election results as they come in. We’re tracking nearly a dozen races that could have implications for who wins the Senate and House in November, as well as how far right or left the new Congress will be. Join us below for up-to-the-minute vote counts and analysis.
Maryland, West Virginia and Nebraska primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is another busy primary day, with voters in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia heading to the polls to decide who will be on the ballot this fall. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the election results as they come in. We’re tracking nearly a dozen races that could have implications for who wins the Senate and House in November, as well as how far right or left the new Congress will be. Join us below for up-to-the-minute vote counts and analysis.
Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
ABC News is reporting that wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the GOP nomination in Indiana's 6th District, east of Indianapolis, with 81 percent of the expected vote reporting. Shreve, who poured millions of his own wealth into the race and who recently lost a bid for mayor of Indianapolis, is a shoo-in in the general election to replace Rep. Greg Pence. With 28 percent of the vote, he's outpacing fellow Republicans Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier.
ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary Original
LIVE UPDATES Tuesday is election day in Indiana, and there's plenty of action: The state's U.S. Senate seat, gubernatorial seat and three U.S. House seats are all open, setting up multiple fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent could also lose renomination after waffling over her decision to seek reelection. As usual, 538 reporters and contributors will be live-blogging the results tonight as they come in.
Haley's campaign exposed cracks in Trump's GOP
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley's presidential campaign was both brief, barely lasting until Super Tuesday, and seemingly prolonged, as she stayed in the race even as it became clear she didn't have an electoral path to the nomination. Haley was the last woman standing in a field of Republican primary candidates that seemed like long shots from the get-go. As New York Times opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie cogently explained when Florida Gov.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Trump, Biden dominate, Haley ekes out win in Vermont Original
LIVE UPDATES March 5 was Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! As of early Wednesday morning, former President Donald Trump is projected to win in at least 12 of the day's 15 GOP presidential nominating contests, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to win one state (Vermont).
Final thought: I'm looking forward to winning future Jason Palmer trivia questions Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Will the VIEWPAC-endorsed candidate win in Alabama's 2nd District?
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Super Tuesday primaries 2024: Live results and analysis Original
LIVE UPDATES It's Super Tuesday — the biggest election day of the year until the one in November! Fifteen states hold their GOP presidential nominating contests today, and 854 delegates are up for grabs. It's also the first downballot primary day of 2024, with important contests for Senate, House and governor in states like Alabama, California, North Carolina and Texas. As usual, 538 reporters, analysts and contributors will be live-blogging the election results tonight as they come in.
Rewriting Motherhood: How TV Represents Moms and What We Want to See Next
March 20, 2024 Virtual Event 12 pm PT / 3 pm ET Moms First joined us for a See Jane Salon to release the findings of our latest report: Rewriting Motherhood: How TV Represents Moms and What We Want to See Next. Popular media plays a powerful role in shaping social norms and our expectations. This study investigates the “cultural meaning of motherhood,” as told in scripted television.
Female Candidates’ Incumbency and Quality (Dis)Advantage in Local Elections
ABSTRACT As springboards to higher office we need to better understand women’s electoral success at lower-level offices to eliminate the gender gap among elected officials in the United States. To help understand women’s success as local candidates, we ask: is there a difference in electoral performance between men and women with political experience who run for local office?
New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on Original
LIVE UPDATES Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. While the result is no surprise, what remains to be seen is how large the margin of victory will be.
New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on Original
LIVE UPDATES Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. While the result is no surprise, what remains to be seen is how large the margin of victory will be.
New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win
LIVE UPDATES After former President Donald Trump won Iowa in convincing fashion last week, the presidential primary race turns to New Hampshire. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is the last major Trump alternative standing, and she has staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. However, polls still indicate that Trump has a healthy lead.
New Hampshire primary 2024: Live results and analysis Original
Primaries are a race for delegates, but the early primary states don’t actually have many delegates up for grabs. Their real value is in their potential to give favorable media coverage, and thus a polling boost, to candidates ahead of delegate-rich Super Tuesday. That’s why you hear so much about the importance of “beating expectations” in states like New Hampshire. But where should those expectations be set for each candidate? It’s subjective, but I’ll try to give you a data-driven idea.
New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on Original
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State.
Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd Original
LIVE UPDATES The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.
Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win Original
Interesting, Elliott! It seems like Trump’s focus on what happened in 2020 is not turning off Iowa voters. However, pre-election polling suggests it may not have been top of mind for most Iowa voters who were considering Trump in the caucuses. Only 40 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers who said they were considering caucusing for Trump said that payback for 2020 was among the reasons, which was the smallest share among the possible reasons listed in a December YouGov/CBS News survey.
Iowa caucuses 2024: Live results and analysis Original
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LIVE UPDATES The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is here! Tonight, Iowa Republicans will brave frigid temperatures to participate in the state’s caucuses, giving us the first concrete look at who Republican voters want as their 2024 presidential nominee. Former President Donald Trump is favored to win, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fighting for second place.
By Nathaniel Rakich, Amina Brown, Meredith Conroy, Geoffrey Skelley Verified, Mary Radcliffe, Monica Potts Verified
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abcnews.go.com
538’s delegate benchmarks set a low bar for Trump tonight
LIVE UPDATES The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is here! Tonight, Iowa Republicans will brave frigid temperatures to participate in the state’s caucuses, giving us the first concrete look at who Republican voters want as their 2024 presidential nominee. Former President Donald Trump is favored to win, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fighting for second place.
Who might Trump pick as his vice president?
ByNathaniel Rakich, Monica Potts, Tia Yang, and Meredith Conroy November 15, 2023, 9:16 AM Welcome to 538’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. tia.yang (Tia Yang, editor/reporter): With one GOP primary debate last week and another planned for December, Republican presidential hopefuls are still battling it out, but former President Donald Trump has remained above the fray.
The 2024 Republican Primary Is Heating Up. Time For Another FiveThirtyEight Primary Draft!
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst):It feels like this is the week the 2024 Republican presidential primary really started in earnest! On Monday, Sen. Tim Scott announced he was running for president, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is expected to formally jump into the race on Wednesday night as well.
Nikki Haley Is Taking On Trump
2024 Republican Primary Nikki Haley Is Taking On Trump As the first woman of color to run for the Republican presidential nomination, shell face unique challenges. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy Feb. 14, 2023, at 10:00 AM PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES Former President Donald Trump is no longer the only candidate in the 2024 Republican primary. On Tuesday Nikki Haley announced that shes running for president too.
Freedom of Expression in an Age of Social Media
We are pleased to offer free access to the Symposium below until the end of March 2023. Follow PS on Twitter to stay up to date with the latest from this important journal.
A Historic Number Of Women Will Be Governors Next Year
After two record-shattering elections for women in Congress, it was female governors’ turn this year. Nearly 25 percent of the nation’s governors will be women in 2023, including in several states that have never before elected a woman to their top office.
2022 Election: Live Analysis and Results
Whitmer, who faced a female challenger, Tudor Dixon, made abortion central to her campaign. In other places, despite Democrats best efforts, abortion wasn't top...
Where Will Progressives Win Today?
Although the progressive movement lost some key races in Democratic primaries this year, their caucus in the House should gain new members after Election Day. A...
2022 Is Not Another ‘Year Of The Woman’
In the last midterm elections, Democratic women won a historic number of congressional races. Two years later, the GOP had its own “Year of the Woman.” But now that the 2022 primaries are long over, we can say that any signs that Republican women would continue to gain on their Democratic counterparts were likely a flash in the pan, not a watershed.
2022 Is Not Another ‘Year Of The Woman’
2022-10-10 10:00:00 FiveThirtyEight By Meredith Conroy 2022 Election 2022 Is Not Another 'Year Of The Woman' Several states could get their first female governor, but fewer women are running for Senate and House than in 2020. By Meredith Conroy and Nathaniel Rakich Oct. 10, 2022, at 6:00 AM Heidi Ganahl, the Republican nominee for governor in Colorado, is one of three women who, if elected, would be the first female governor of her state.
Women Have Swung Toward Democrats Since the Dobbs Decision
With about a month before the midterm election, some Republican candidates across the country are scrambling to moderate their position on abortion. Supporting the recent Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization — which overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to abortion — might be a winner in a Republican primary, but early signs are that it makes it harder to win a general election.
Progressives Took A Step Back In The 2022 Primaries - But They’re Playing The Long Game
When Rep. Kurt Schrader, a seven-term incumbent endorsed by President Biden, lost his primary in May, he joined a small but slowly growing list of congressional veterans defeated by progressive candidates with the backing of an increasingly influential campaign apparatus on the left. This renewed progressive movement emerged following Sen.
Meredith Conroy
Meredith Conroy is an associate professor of political science at California State University, San Bernardino, and co-author of “Who Runs? The Masculine Advantage in Candidate Emergence.”
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