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Articles by Murray Hiebert
High Time for the United States to Graduate Vietnam from Its Nonmarket Economy Status
Vietnam’s leaders might be forgiven for being befuddled about why their country can have a comprehensive strategic partnership and rank as one of the United States’ top trading partners but still be categorized as a nonmarket economy. Vietnam has held that status for over two decades and is categorized in a grouping of 12 nations that includes Russia, China, and countries formerly linked to the Soviet Union.
US and SE Asia as perennial ‘imperfect partners’
As much of the focus in the Indo-Pacific shifts to United States-China hostilities, it is important not to forget the Southeast Asian countries that could be among the first nations impacted by this rivalry. A new book by former US diplomat Scot Marciel has landed just in time to remind readers about the importance of this complex and dynamic region.
Biden Should Invite Vietnam’s Party Chief for a Visit
President Joe Biden should pencil the name of Vietnam’s Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong onto his 2023 diplomatic “dance card.” Vietnam has in recent years emerged as one of Washington’s most consequential partners in the Indo-Pacific and is a frontline state facing China’s assertiveness in Southeast Asia, particularly in the South China Sea. This year marks the tenth anniversary of the United States and Vietnam signing a bilateral comprehensive partnership in 2013.
CSIS Laos Trip Report
November 1, 2012 This report is also availabe in PDF here. In mid-October 2012, Murray Hiebert, deputy director and senior fellow in the CSIS Chair for Southeast Asia Studies, visited Vientiane, Laos, for several days to explore recent economic and political developments. This report highlights his key findings. WTO accession will help Laos develop rule of law.
The United States Makes Up Critical Terrain in Thailand
September 2, 2022 Thailand has been showered with attention from the United States in recent months after Thai officials privately complained last year that senior Biden administration officials seemed to be passing by Bangkok during their travels to the region. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited in July, a month after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stopped in Bangkok.
The Looming Environmental Catastrophe in the South China Sea
Features | Environment | Southeast Asia Heated maritime and territorial disputes conceal the severe damage being done beneath the waves. Credit: Depositphotos Much of the focus on the South China Sea over the past decade has centered around the nationalistic territorial disputes between China and four Southeast Asian claimants and a geopolitical tussle between China and the United States over freedom of navigation in the contested waters.
Fallout in Southeast Asia of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
March 11, 2022 Southeast Asian nations have been rather subdued in their responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, although all but two—Vietnam and Laos—voted in the United Nations in early March to condemn Moscow’s aggression. The fighting erupted thousands of miles away, but the effects, particularly of the sanctions imposed by the United States, Europe, Japan, Australia, and others, will still have economic reverberations in Southeast Asia.
Security Challenges of Climate Change in Southeast Asia
October 5, 2021 Southeast Asia will be one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change unless countries make dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas pollution. According to a 2018 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global warming increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) will cause rising seas, dangerous flooding, and changing rain patterns leading to violent typhoons and drought.
A Review of Books on Southeast Asia's Relationship With China by Murray Hiebert, Sebastian Strangio, and David Shambaugh
When I served as a Singaporean diplomat, I once asked a Vietnamese counterpart what an impending leadership change in Hanoi meant for his country’s relations with China. “Every Vietnamese leader,” he replied, “must get along with China, every Vietnamese leader must stand up to China, and if you can’t do both at the same time, you don’t deserve to be leader.” As U.S. President Joe Biden begins his term in office, his team should heed those words.
Under Beijing's Shadow: Southeast Asia's China Challenge
August 3, 2020 ISBN# 978-1-4422-8138-7 (hb); 978-1-4422-8140-0 (eBook) China’s rise and stepped-up involvement in Southeast Asia have prompted a blend of anticipation and unease among its smaller neighbors. The stunning growth of China has yanked up the region’s economies, but its militarization of the South China Sea and dam building on the Mekong River has nations wary about Beijing’s outsized ambitions.
Gauging Indonesia’s interests in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
26 June 2020 Authors: Aristyo Rizka Darmawan and Arie Afriansyah, University of Indonesia In June, four years after the Hague’s 2016 South China Sea tribunal ruling, Indonesia put forward a formal diplomatic note to the UN. This was in response to Malaysia’s 2019 continental shelf submission that objected to China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea, including the area bounded by China’s nine-dash line.
Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy in the balance | East Asia Forum
26 June 2020 Author: Sourabh Gupta, Institute for China-America Studies On 1 July 2017, on the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s reversion to Chinese rule, President Xi Jinping laid down three ‘red lines’ for handling the relationship between Hong Kong and the central government. Crossing them would be met with a resolute response. Three years on, that response has come to pass.
Rising tensions on the Nepal–India border | East Asia Forum
25 June 2020 Author: Rishi Gupta, Jawaharlal Nehru University Amid rising cases of COVID-19 in Nepal, the country is engaged in a diplomatic spat with India over land disputes in the Dharchula region — a tri-junction between Nepal, India and China. The latest dispute began after Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh inaugurated an 80 kilometre road from Dharchula to Lipulekh in India’s Uttarakhand state.
The fear of managing Chinese investment | East Asia Forum
25 June 2020 Authors: Shiro Armstrong and Adam Triggs, ANU The trend in advanced economies of closing up to Chinese foreign investment has accelerated during the economic downturn from the coronavirus pandemic. There is a fear among Australian, Japanese, European and other policymakers that cashed up Chinese companies will scoop up their distressed assets in a fire sale and take ownership of critical infrastructure, data and other national assets.
Asia is hurtling towards a fentanyl disaster | East Asia Forum
25 June 2020 Author: Pascal Tanguay, Bangkok In May 2020, authorities in Myanmar seized a whopping 3700 litres of liquid fentanyl — equivalent to about 30 bathtubs’ worth — alongside other drugs, precursors and weaponry. The lethal drug is increasingly being found cut into common illicit substances as the opioid epidemic rages in North America and Europe. 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine, its growing presence in Asian illicit drug markets will likely prove disastrous.
Nationalism, heroism and media in Vietnam’s war on COVID-19 | East Asia Forum
24 June 2020 Author: Lena Le, Vietnam National University Hanoi While many countries around the world are struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, 11 May 2020 marked the end of the ‘longest New Year (Tet) holiday ever’ for students in Vietnam. When the nationwide lockdown was lifted, Vietnamese students at all levels returned to school. Shops and restaurants reopened, and local markets were busy again.
South Korea can help drive Asia’s recovery post-COVID-19 | East Asia Forum
24 June 2020 Author: Choong Yong Ahn, Chung-Ang University Having been hit early by the COVID-19 crisis, some East Asian economies are also recovering early — including South Korea. The early movers should work together to achieve regional economic reconstruction and eventual global recovery. Prioritising the exhaustive prescriptions of the Asian Strategy for Recovery and Reconstruction after COVID-19, released by the ANU’s Asian Bureau of Economic Research (ABER), could be a start.
The end of ‘one country, two systems’? | East Asia Forum
24 June 2020 Author: Joseph Yu Shek Cheng, Hong Kong In May 2020, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) passed a resolution to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. Chinese leaders defended the move as essential for China’s security — closing a gap that could be exploited by hostile countries to introduce a colour revolution to China. Hong Kong’s Basic Law allows the NPC to introduce legislation for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), to be attached to Annex III.
Back to square one for inter-Korean relations | East Asia Forum
23 June 2020 Author: Scott Snyder, Council on Foreign Relations On the eve of the 70th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War, the two Koreas face a dramatic breakdown in relations. Tensions rocketed on 16 June when North Korea demolished a liaison office that had stood as a symbol of hope for improved communications.
Japan, the Olympics and the COVID-19 pandemic | East Asia Forum
23 June 2020 Author: Helen Macnaughtan, SOAS University of London Japan’s path to hosting the Summer Olympics has had more than its fair share of twists and turns. The Tokyo 1940 Olympics were cancelled. Since their inception in 1896 the Olympics have been cancelled only three times: 1916, 1940 and 1944, all in wartime. The Games have weathered political boycotts and acts of terrorism, but in 2020 they have been postponed for the first time because of a pandemic.
Revitalising Japan’s battered economy post-COVID-19 | East Asia Forum
22 June 2020 Author: Takashi Oshio, Hitotsubashi University At the end of May, the Japanese government delivered a much larger than expected second supplementary budget, worth 6.2 per cent of GDP (31.9 trillion yen or US$291 billion). Combined with the first supplementary budget (5 per cent of GDP at 25.7 trillion yen or US$234.5 billion), the total fiscal stimulus in response to the COVID-19 shock now amounts to over 11 per cent of Japan’s GDP — the largest in decades.
Can Mongolia’s elections shun democratic backsliding? | East Asia Forum
22 June 2020 Authors: Byambajav Dalaibuyan, Mongolian Institute for Innovative Policies and Julian Dierkes, UBC On 24 June 2020, Mongolia will hold its eighth parliamentary election since adopting its 1992 democratic constitution. This election is significant at a time when democracy worldwide increasingly appears under threat. It will assess the state of Mongolia’s democracy — which has exhibited signs of weakening — and whether the country can buck a global democratic backsliding trend.
Trump’s missteps in managing the China relationship | East Asia Forum
22 June 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU In the tell-all memoir released in part this week by John Bolton, the former US national security adviser alleges that President Donald Trump has spent the past four years using the China relationship for his own electoral purposes. Bolton describes a president who implored Chinese President Xi Jinping to buy up American agricultural products as a way to boost Trump’s electoral fortunes in key states and with special interest groups.
New contagion afflicts US–China relations | East Asia Forum
21 June 2020 Author: James Curran, Sydney University Even before the onset of coronavirus, it had become something of a truism to talk of US–China relations plunging into a new era of heightened geopolitical competition. The element of danger in all this comes not from the risk of it sparking a major military conflict — which remains unlikely. It comes with the reinforcement on both sides of existing stereotypes.
Trump versus Huawei: right target, disastrous strategy | East Asia Forum
21 June 2020 Author: William H Overholt, Harvard Kennedy School The United States has valid complaints about Huawei, but US President Donald Trump is botching the negotiation. The principal issue with Huawei is the lack of reciprocal market access. As long as Huawei has access to all three major markets — the United States, European Union and China — and foreign tech companies are prevented from having full access to the Chinese market, it will soon dominate the global 5G market.
India’s lockdown locks out the poor | East Asia Forum
20 June 2020 Author: Mandar Oak and Peter Mayer, University of Adelaide Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave India’s nearly 1.4 billion people just four hours’ notice that a total national lockdown would be imposed to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on 24 March. Neither preparation nor provision was made for the needs of workers in the informal sector (90 per cent of India’s workforce), nor means for them to return to their distant homes.
What does Moon’s election victory mean for South Korean democracy? | East Asia Forum
19 June 2020 Author: WooJin Kang, Kyungpook National University On 15 April 2020, the legislative elections to choose the 21st National Assembly were held in South Korea. President Moon Jae-In’s ruling Democratic Party (DP) was elected in a landslide victory, winning a total of 180 out of 300 seats. The DP won 163 out of 253 directly contested seats (49.91 per cent of votes) and 17 out of 47 proportional representation (PR) seats (33.35 per cent of votes) through its satellite party.
COVID-19 entrenching poverty in the developing world | East Asia Forum
19 June 2020 Author: Omkar Shrestha, Singapore Through disruption of the forces of supply and demand and the forcing of lockdown measures across the global economy, the COVID-19 pandemic is posing an existential threat to least developed and developing countries. Gains made in poverty alleviation through decades of economic growth are being shattered. It is a sober reminder of humanity’s fragility and it will be a tragedy if we do not emerge wiser and more united from this savage crisis.
The global pushback against China's overreach in Hong Kong | East Asia Forum
18 June 2020 Author: Andreas Fulda, University of Nottingham On 28 May 2020, with a vote of 2878 to 1, China’s rubber stamp National People’s Congress passed and enacted its new controversial Hong Kong national security legislation. It sent a clear message to the international community: Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ model is history. But the process of hollowing out Hong Kong’s autonomy started much earlier. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has played a very long game.
Mind the gap in combating COVID-19 | East Asia Forum
18 June 2020 Author: Juzhong Zhuang, ADB A public health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic destroys economic growth and pushes millions into poverty. Without policy interventions, it will also worsen income inequality. As of 16 June 2020, there have been more than 885,900 reported cases of COVID-19 and about 23,400 deaths in 33 out of the 45 economies in developing Asia. The pandemic is inflicting tremendous human, social and economic pain on society at large.
COVID-19 tightens Duterte’s iron grip | East Asia Forum
18 June 2020 Author: Imelda Deinla, ANU On top of its health impact, COVID-19 has thrown the Philippines further into economic and political uncertainty. The government under President Rodrigo Duterte is demonstrating to the world yet again that a forceful exercise of power is its preferred mode of governance. Yet despite harsh quarantine measures, the Philippines continues to struggle to contain the spread of the virus.
Crisis in Ladakh strengthens US–India relations against China | East Asia Forum
17 June 2020 Author: Vinay Kaura, Sardar Patel University of Police, Security and Criminal Justice The face-off between Indian and Chinese forces has become uglier with the recent deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers. It is the first such incident in over four decades and likely to change India’s perception of China decisively.
Implementing Indonesia’s COVID-19 stimulus | East Asia Forum
17 June 2020 Author: Lili Yan Ing, ERIA and Yessi Vadila, Indonesian Ministry of Trade COVID-19 is a wake-up call for the world. The pandemic has brought some of the worst economic impacts since World War II. While some Eastern countries seem much better prepared than their Western peers in terms of handling infections, testing and mitigating the pandemic’s economic impacts, the poorest countries will be hit hardest.
Indonesia’s PPE export ban backfires | East Asia Forum
16 June 2020 Authors: Arianto Patunru and Krisna Gupta, ANU By 16 June 2020, Indonesia had recorded 39,294 cases of COVID-19, second only to Singapore in Southeast Asia. Indonesia’s death toll tops the region with 2198 lives lost. The government has drawn a lot of criticism for its slow response to the pandemic — from the lack of testing to ineffective physical distancing measures. The fear of the infection spreading has also shaped economic policies, including trade.
Humanity’s COVID-19 crossroads | East Asia Forum
16 June 2020 Author: Naoto Kan, Tokyo COVID-19 quickly spread worldwide from the end of 2019. While some countries are seeing a decline in transmission and are relaxing restrictions after almost six months of disruption and uncertainty, there are still no signs of an end to the emergency in many countries. Meanwhile, the global economic impact of the virus is worsening, and there is concern that the number of suicides linked to economic collapse will increase.
Japan’s triple economic shock | East Asia Forum
15 June 2020 Author: Sayuri Shirai, Keio University Japan’s economy has experienced three consecutive shocks over the past year-and-a-half. The first shock struck Japan in early 2019 when the US–China trade war and slowing economic growth adversely affected Japan’s manufacturing sector. This economic effect was exacerbated by a second demand shock caused by the consumption tax hike from 8 to 10 per cent on 1 October 2019.
Trump spins his China policy for re-election | East Asia Forum
15 June 2020 Author: Daniel Sneider, Stanford University Just as the crisis over the murder of George Floyd was erupting, US President Donald Trump, flanked by his senior foreign and national security and trade officialdom, strode out to the Rose Garden to deliver a statement on China.
Asian cooperation should start with financial stability | East Asia Forum
15 June 2020 Author: Editorial Board, ANU ‘Stand your ground, don’t retreat’ is how to survive a bear attack. The same is true for surviving COVID-19. Countries that retreat into themselves will face worse health outcomes, deeper recessions and slower recoveries than open ones. Whatever misguided comfort people may get from closing their country, it cannot overcome the basic arithmetic of national accounting: closed economies will see living standards collapse.
Asian economies positioned to ride out crisis | East Asia Forum
14 June 2020 Author: Brad Setser, Council on Foreign Relations Social distancing has become the primary tool for protecting public health amid the coronavirus pandemic, and its inevitable impact on economic life has required governments to provide income and support to those who can no longer work, even as spending on public health rises. Nearly all governments globally are now running large fiscal deficits, and a sharp rise in the stock of public debt globally is expected.
A Farewell to Arms on the Ho Chi Minh trail | East Asia Forum
13 June 2020 Author: James Borton, Vietnam National University It was not unusual for war-time soldiers in Vietnam to gain an understanding of Americans through a reconnaissance of literature. Today, Vietnam appears to be taking pages straight out of Washington’s cultural diplomacy playbook and the Cold War cultural export of ‘American Corners’ — the US Department of State-sponsored initiative highlighting US culture, history and literature.
Will the macroeconomic policy response to COVID-19 be enough? | East Asia Forum
13 June 2020 Author: Alok Sheel, ICRIER Stringent public health measures taken by governments across the world to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have savaged the global economy. Treasuries and central banks have moved quickly to contain the economic fallout with some of the most aggressive macroeconomic policies in recent memory. The IMF projects the global economy to retreat by 3 per cent in 2020 — the sharpest contraction since the Great Depression.
The creeping danger of Hindu extremism | East Asia Forum
12 June 2020 Author: Balachander Palanisamy, RSIS India’s government is neglecting the creeping danger of Hindu extremism. The nation has seen several mass riots from Ayodhya in 1992 and Gujarat in 2002 to the recent New Delhi riots in February 2020. The Delhi riots were sparked by Kapil Mishra — a local Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) politician — making incendiary remarks at a crowd protesting the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act.
Cambodia’s COVID-19 success and economic challenges | East Asia Forum
12 June 2020 Author: Kimkong Heng, University of Queensland Unlike Europe, North America and recently Russia, Southeast Asia does not seem to have been hit as hard by the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of total deaths and confirmed cases. Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia are the worst affected countries in the region, but Vietnam, Cambodia and previously Singapore, have managed to contain the spread of COVID-19. Cambodia is a successful case in point.
South Korea’s digital quarantine success | East Asia Forum
11 June 2020 Author: Hyung-A Kim, ANU Worldwide demand for South Korea’s ‘drive-thru’ COVID-19 test kits and other precision contact tracing methods boosted the country’s image as a leading global health care and technology powerhouse. Early success in managing the pandemic also gave South Korean voters more confidence in President Moon Jae-in’s administration.
Political manoeuvres compromise Nepal’s COVID-19 response | East Asia Forum
11 June 2020 Author: Sujeev Shakya, Beed Management The Nepali government did little to combat COVID-19 when its first case was confirmed on 13 January 2020, viewing it at the time as an isolated problem in China rather than a looming global public health crisis. Nepal was prompted into action only after Europe was hit, followed by the United States. Nepal implemented nationwide lockdowns on 24 March, and further measures were taken following neighbouring India’s response.
COVID-19, economic crisis and gender equality in Asia | East Asia Forum
10 June 2020 Authors: Elizabeth Hill and Marian Baird, Sydney University The global research evidence is clear: economic crises exacerbate pre-existing inequalities, damaging the employment opportunities and economic security of women more than men.
Will COVID-19 temper Pyongyang’s belligerence? | East Asia Forum
10 June 2020 Author: Liang Tuang Nah, RSIS The current COVID-19 pandemic could indirectly apply the brakes on North Korea’s belligerent behaviour. Though North Korea initially denied that there was a single COVID-19 case within its borders, the fact that it shares a lengthy border with China makes this highly unlikely. Indeed, there was significant trade across this frontier in late 2019 when the virus was spreading rapidly across China.
Time to reset Australian international education | East Asia Forum
10 June 2020 Author: Fran Martin, University of Melbourne In the context of the long-term erosion of public funding for universities, education has become one of Australia’s most valuable export commodities. Not only do international students’ fees bolster the revenue of universities, but their spending on other goods and services also makes a significant contribution to the communities where they live. In 2018–19, they contributed AU$37.6 billion (US$25.1 billion) to the national economy.
The impacts of COVID-19 on Vietnam and ways to move forward | East Asia Forum
9 June 2020 Author: Minh Cuong Duong, UNSW The number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Vietnam are much lower than in most countries worldwide due to early and aggressive anti-pandemic response. But this does not mean that the impact of the pandemic on Vietnam is less severe. The crisis has adversely affected all sectors in Vietnam and COVID-19 related losses may not be fully reflected in the statistics.
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