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Direction of the Alpine Fault's last big quake will help NZ prepare for the inevitable next rupture
One of the world's most anticipated earthquakes is the next major surface rupture of the Alpine Fault in the South Island of New Zealand. With a 75% chance of it happening within the next 50 years, there is justified interest in the likely magnitude, extent and intensity of ground shaking and impacts on the landscape, infrastructure and buildings. A key—and so far unanswered—question is which direction the fault rupture will take.
Clues left by the Alpine Fault’s last big quake reveal its direction - this will help NZ prepare for the inevitable next rupture
One of the world’s most anticipated earthquakes is the next major surface rupture of the Alpine Fault in the South Island of New Zealand. With a 75% chance of it happening within the next 50 years, there is justified interest in the likely magnitude, extent and intensity of ground shaking and impacts on the landscape, infrastructure and buildings. A key – and so far unanswered – question is which direction the fault rupture will take.
Spatiotemporal clustering of great earthquakes on a transform fault controlled by geometry
Abstract Minor changes in geometry along the length of mature strike-slip faults may act as conditional barriers to earthquake rupture, terminating some and allowing others to pass. This hypothesis remains largely untested because palaeoearthquake data that constrain spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture are generally imprecise.
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