Based on survey data, U.S. EMS providers are reporting a noticeable uptick in orders, and the narrative forming around what’s driving that growth is familiar: tariffs, reshoring, and a long-awaited revival of domestic manufacturing. Some analysts even claim we’ve entered a super-cycle, a prolonged period of demand-driven economic growth that can last years to decades. But as is often the case in this industry, the reality is more nuanced. A closer look at the data suggests two competing truths.