Peter Kellner
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Articles by Peter Kellner
Where America’s pollsters got the mid-terms wrong
For once, we progressives can cheer America’s pollsters. They have a habit of letting us down – predicting Donald Trump’s defeat in 2016 and 2024 and overstating Joe Biden’s support in 2020. This time, they have been even more inaccurate, but helpfully so. Their average national forecast was that the Democrats would lead the Republicans by 8.8 points in the elections to Congress.
The taboo that Labour needs to shed
Last month I entered my ninth decade. For 57 of the past eighty years, I have enjoyed a ring-side seat as journalist and pollster, seeking to make sense of successive political dramas, from Wilson to Burnham via Thatcher and Blair; “into Europe” and out again. This time, I have decided to stretch my legs. Here is a personal view of how progressive politics have evolved over my life and where they might go from here. At the heart of my story is a curious gap in Labour’s lexicon.
Britain’s pro-Brexit majority has literally died out
Andy Burnham’s ambition to reset relations with Brussels comes at a significant moment. For years after the 2016 referendum, Brexiters could claim that most current voters had chosen to leave the EU. No longer. The pro-Brexit majority has literally died out. Most voters still alive backed Remain. A decade ago, older voters backed Brexit by almost two-to-one. Over time, the remorseless impact of mortality has meant that, among survivors, the gap between the two sides steadily shrunk.
Losing Holborn and St Pancras is catastrophic for Zack Polanksi
Only three times in the party’s history has a Labour government been able to cheer a byelection night as a boost to its prospects of remaining in office. The first was retaining Kingston upon Hull North in January 1966, ahead of its big national victory two months later. The second was four months ago, when Andy Burnham won Makerfield (though some ministers were happier than others). The third was last night. Sagal Abdi-Wali has not just defeated the Greens in a local byelection.
The figures that make Sagal Abdi-Wali’s victory remarkable
Ignore the Greens’ misleading claims. It was a catastrophic night for Zack Polanski Only three times in the party’s history has a Labour government been able to cheer a by-election night as a boost to its prospects of remaining in office. The first was retaining Kingston-upon-Hull North in January 1966, ahead of its big national victory two months later. The second was four months ago, when Andy Burnham won Makerfield (though some ministers were happier than others).
How Burnham’s plans for voting reform could backfire
A better system might be good for democracy, but not necessarily for Labour Andy Burnham should beware what he wishes for. Last week he explained why he wants to change the way we elect MPs. It’s to scrap the risk of getting “a divisive government on less than 30% of the vote”. Proportional voting – the dream of the electoral reform movement for decades – would certainly prevent that. The trouble is, it would hurt Labour, too. To show how such a voting system could work, I have made two assumptions.
Labour is more middle class than ever
A promise or, if you prefer, a warning. This post contains lots of numbers. Let’s dive straight in. New research by Nortstat has important information for all our national parties. It finds that ** Labour has drifted further away from its traditional base. Its supporters are better off and and more middle class than ever – and more likely to be graduates. ** However, its rising share of women supporters over recent elections has gone into reverse.
Tony Hall | Biography, BBC, & Facts | Britannica Money
Tony Hall, 2009. Yui Mok—PA Images/Getty Images in full: Anthony William Hall, Baron Hall of Birkenhead born: March 3, 1951, Birkenhead, Wirral, England (age 75) Tony Hall (born March 3, 1951, Birkenhead, Wirral, England) is a British theatre and television administrator who served as chief executive (2001–13) of the Royal Opera House (ROH) and later as director general (2013–20) of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC).
Solved: the mystery of Badenoch’s wobbly ratings
“After the break, we shall be speaking to Kemi Badenoch”. This is a sentence that television producers dread. They fear it will put viewers off. Leaders of stumbling opposition parties seldom attract large audiences. Yet Badenoch’s fortunes matter, and as much to her opponents as her allies. Moreover, as we shall see, the latest data, unnoticed by the media, shows that she has made remarkable progress since last autumn. Those TV producers may need to change their views.
The national polls are right—Reform is in trouble
So much for the fears that a Reform UK mayor in Greater Manchester would be the price Labour paid for allowing Andy Burnham back into parliament. In the end it wasn’t even close. Labour’s Bev Craig led Reform’s Sian Astley comfortably on first preferences, and the supplementary vote system in the mayoral race rewarded her with a greater lead after counting second preferences. Like Andy Burnham in the Makerfield byelection, Craig outperformed the polls.
No, Andy Burnham is not destined to be an unpopular PM
It must be true: Andy Burnham is doomed. Why else would we be told so often that each of the last five prime ministers set a record for being the least popular occupant of that office? It follows that Burnham, who today finally realises his long-held dream of leading the Labour party, and the country, is heading to Downing Street at a time when voters are becoming ever more disillusioned with their leaders. Surely, before long he too will be the victim of an unforgiving electorate.
It’s not just your money, Nigel. Voters don't trust you
Be warned; or, possibly, be cheered. Andy Burnham and Nigel Farage will dominate the political headlines for the rest of the summer. Fortunately for those of us with an appetite for political numbers, a significant new poll of almost 6,000 electors has been conducted following Keit Starmer’s resignation. The survey was conducted by Norstat, the company whose eve-of-election figures two years ago came closest to the result.
Stará slovenská vieronáuka: Skrytý odkaz ľudových rozprávok
Komentáře knihy Stará slovenská vieronáuka: Skrytý odkaz ľudových rozprávok Přidat komentář Zavřít Vypněte si reklamy na Databázi Za 99 Kč vám vypneme všechny reklamní bannery na CELÝ ROK: Chci vypnout reklamy Nebo se staňte členem DK Premium a využijte Databázi naplno - více o DK Premium
Stará slovenská vieronáuka: Skrytý odkaz ľudových rozprávok
O knize Stará slovenská vieronáuka: Skrytý odkaz ľudových rozprávok Dosiaľ nanovo nepublikovaný historický klenot z roku 1871 Stará slovenská vieronáuka je kľúč do podstaty ľudových rozprávok. Naši predkovia do nich zaodeli svoje predstavy o svete, o jeho vzniku, vývoji, o zákonoch prírody, o kolobehu života. Rozprávkové postavy predvádzajú mystické predstavenie, pri ktorom sa tají dych, myseľ tuho pracuje a učí sa vstupovať do našej histórie nečakanými dverami, nevídaným spôsobom.
Is Burnham right to enjoy a coronation rather than face a contest?
From MPs, columnists and leader-writers, the cry goes out: Andy Burnham has no mandate to become prime minister; his plans for governing Britain should be tested in a full-scale leadership election. Let us consider a different test: the validity of those two arguments. Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. First the mandate. Keir Starmer won a landslide victory less than two years ago.
Makerfield By-Election Special: How Andy Burnham Defeated Reform UK
The Byline Times Podcast spoke this morning to top pollster Peter Kellner about Andy Burnham’s huge by-election victory in Makerfield. Kellner was almost alone among the experts in foreseeing that Burnham was on course for a big victory against Reform in this contest. He talks about what the pollsters got wrong and why Reform and Nigel Farage could now be in big electoral trouble. You can watch the whole interview (including some early technical problems) by clicking on the above video.
Minnesota Protests War On Iran Outside Army Recruitment Center
Above photo: Protest against war on Iran at Richfield, MN Army recruitment center. Fight Back! News. Richfield, MN – On June 14, over 50 protesters gathered outside a U.S. Army recruitment center to demand an end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Lebanon, highlighting the war crimes committed by U.S. military personnel while admonishing recruiters for preying on vulnerable people’s basic needs.
Minnesota protests war on Iran outside Army recruitment center
Richfield, MN – On June 14, over 50 protesters gathered outside a U.S. Army recruitment center to demand an end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Lebanon, highlighting the war crimes committed by U.S. military personnel while admonishing recruiters for preying on vulnerable people’s basic needs. The event was organized by the Minnesota Anti-War Committee (AWC) with a wide range of grassroots organizations participating in the event. The day also marked the Flag Day holiday.
Why MPs should choose their leaders
Fifty years ago this month, British politics changed course. Depending on your point of view, you should thank or curse the Liberal party. In June 1976 it needed a new leader. Jeremy Thorpe had resigned amid one of British politics’ more lurid scandals. The somewhat discombobulated party felt that it needed not just a new leader but a new way of choosing them, one that involved local activists.
Hand the power to choose party leaders back to MPs
The 50-year experiment of giving the vote to grassroot members has failed Fifty years ago this month, British politics changed course. Depending on your point of view, you should thank or curse the Liberal Party. In June 1976 it needed a new leader. Jeremy Thorpe had resigned amid one of British politics’ more lurid scandals.
Peter Kellner (@peterkellner1)
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Mapping the future of multiparty politics
Thursday’s elections showed how multiparty competition is transforming British politics. Two of Thursday’s results illustrate its character. In Hackney Zoe Garbutt, the Green candidate was elected Mayor on a 19 per cent swing from Labour. A few miles to the East, Reform captured Havering Council, gaining 39 seats, most of them from the Conservatives. Two boroughs, two two-party contests, but completely different.
The lessons of this week’s election
Thursday’s elections showed how multi-party competition is transforming British politics. Two of the results illustrate the character of this change. In Hackney, Zoe Garbutt, the Green candidate, was elected mayor on a 19 per cent swing from Labour. A few miles to the east, Reform UK captured Havering Council, gaining 39 seats, most of them from the Conservatives. Two boroughs, two two-party contests, but each completely different.
Yesterday's elections: the story so far
This analysis is based on the overnight results from yestreday’s elections. I shall update it later today Welcome to multiparty politics. The overnight results from English councils confirm the story told by recent polls: Reform UK is out in front, Labour is in deep trouble, the Conservatives may have begun to recover, the Greens have gained ground, and the Liberal Democrats are doing well where they have a chance of victory.
The May elections: What you need to know
The elections on 7th May look set to be the most significant of this Westminster parliament. They will produce new governments for Scotland and Wales, and they will show whether Reform UK has started to slip back in popularity—and if the Greens can match their recent polling performance in actual votes. Further, they might just determine Keir Starmer’s fate as prime minister. Here is what to look out for: Will the SNP win an outright majority in Scotland?
The very British tradition of keeping the PM out of the loop
Last week, a column in the Times by Fraser Nelson stirred old memories. With the extent of Keir Starmer’s knowledge of the security vetting of Peter Mandelson high on the news agenda, Nelson described the “Rhodesia solution” for keeping prime ministers in the dark. It helps civil servants to bury a problem while still playing by the book. Fraser said this “solution” was rooted in the scandal of Rhodesian oil sanctions, which the Sunday Timeshad exposed decades earlier. I remember the story well.
Minneapolis protests against war on Iran
Minneapolis – On April 2, protesters gathered in Chute Square, a small park located at the busy intersection of University and Central Avenues Northeast Minneapolis. Commuters honked in solidarity at the sight of Palestinian, Iranian and Lebanese flags. The action, called by the Twin Cities-based Free Palestine Coalition, highlighted Israel’s renewed invasion of Lebanon amid the broader war surrounding U.S. and Israeli attacks against Iran that began on February 28.
Scotland’s voting system is ripe for exploitation
If the break-up of the United Kingdom doesn’t bother you, read no further. But those of us who want the UK to stay together should prepare for a bitter battle between Westminster and Holyrood. This battle will not just decide the future of these islands; it could raise big questions about the way Scottish democracy works. The election for a new Holyrood parliament takes place on 7th May, the same day as elections to the Welsh Senedd and councils across England.
The dangerous madness of Scotland’s coming election
If the break-up of the United Kingdom doesn’t bother you, read no further. You are unlikely to be concerned by a clear majority for independence in Scotland’s new parliament - even if most voters choose parties that want to keep the union. But those of us who want the UK to stay together should prepare for a bitter battle between Westminster and Holyrood. It will not just decide the future of these islands. It could raise big questions about the way Scottish democracy works.
April 2026
Juliet Mitchell, second wave seer
An open letter to Labour’s next prime minister
Dear comrade, If you are reading this before you have reached the top of the greasy pole—good. Successful prime ministers depend on the preparations they make before they arrive at Number 10, not just the decisions they take afterwards. It will be crucial to learn from Keir Starmer’s mistakes. Listing them is the easy bit. The crisis that has engulfed him deserves an explanation. How did he end up disliked by so many voters and alienating so many of his own MPs?
Greens humiliate Labour: five take-aways from yesterday’s by-election
A terrible result not just for Starmer, but for Britain’s political mainstream 1. Hannah Spencer’s victory is sensational. Before last night, the Greens’ best by-election performance was 10.2 per cent in Somerton and Frome three years ago. Last night they won four times as much support. Gorton and Denton will join the roll call of constituencies that have humiliated unpopular governments this time with a new name added to the list of triumphant parties.
Rayner may be ahead of Starmer and Streeting… but maybe not
Most of this post discusses the politics of tax-and-spend, and a recent poll that has been reported as showing voters shifting to the right. I argue that this misreads the true message of the numbers. But first, new polling figures released over the weekend show that in a straight fight to succeed Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner is well placed. It comes from research by Survation for the LabourList website.
Why the polls are all over the place
Are you baffled by recent polls? If so, congratulations; it shows you are paying attention. Here are some of the things they have told us since the new year. Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
The Rise of Euroscepticism: causes and prospects
Thursday 30 January 2014 | 1 hour 37 minutes 59 seconds ‘Eurosceptic‘ parties all around Europe are gathering momentum in advance of the European Parliament elections in May. But how wide and how deep does their support actually run? And has hostility towards the EU become a surrogate for other discontents? Matthew Goodwin is associate professor at the University of Nottingham, where his research focuses on radical right parties, immigration and Euroscepticism.
Minneapolis holds protest for Palestine, demands end to state terror at home and abroad | Opinion - Liberal | Before It's News
Minneapolis, MN – On January 11, over 50 people rallied to demand an end to state terror from Minneapolis to Palestine. Attendees waved Palestine and Venezuelan flags in the busy intersection of Hennepin Avenue and Oak Grove on the corner of Loring Park and displayed a banner on the pedestrian bridge over I-94 reading “Free Palestine: End ethnic cleansing.” Minneapolis has once again become the epicenter in the struggle against state terror.
Half the picture
“We were elected as New Labour. We shall govern as New Labour.” Twenty-eight years later, Tony Blair’s words still resonate. Standing on the steps of Downing Street on the day he became prime minister, he captured the meaning and the excitement of the moment. Does anyone remember what Keir Starmer said on the same steps on his big day? Does anyone care? All general elections have consequences, but some are more consequential than others.
Starmer's options in the last chance saloon
Labour can win the next general election. That statement should not be condemned as a blind refusal to accept recent polls. The story these tell is, indeed, bleak. To be ahead in only 85 seats, according to the latest More in Common poll for the Sunday Times – the lowest yet in any seat-projection survey in this parliament – is plainly catastrophic. Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
How 2025 transformed British politics
Thirty years ago, when I reported on politics for BBC Newsnight, we occasionally dipped our toes in the murky waters of political theory. As ours was a television programme, we needed pictures. Which was why we ended up one day filming ice cream vans on London’s Exhibition Road... All will be explained soon. Please be as patient as a child queueing quietly for a 99 Flake from Mister Whippy.
2025: the year when the rules of ice cream battles changed British politics
Thirty years ago, when I reported politics for BBC Newsnight, we occasionally dipped our toes in the murky waters of political theory. As ours was a television programme, we needed pictures. Which was why we ended up one day filming ice cream vans in London’s Exhibition Road. All will be explained a little later. Please be patient, like young Jack and Seema queueing quietly for a 99 from Mr Whippy. Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Minneapolis stands with Somali community against Trump's racist attacks
Minneapolis, MN – On December 8, despite subzero temperatures and snow, 300 people gathered at Mayday Plaza for a rally in solidarity with the Somali and Afghan communities in Minneapolis. The event was organized by the Free Palestine Coalition, with a wide range of grass roots organizations participating in the event. The event was organized in response to the racist rhetoric that has been directed at the Somali community from the Trump administration.
The majority of doctors supported the recent strike. So why did the Department of Health suggest the opposite?
; ; ; Continue reading More for You ; ; ; Continue reading More for You
The majority of doctors supported the recent strike. So why did the Department of Health suggest the opposite?
Resident doctors picket outside the Royal Liverpool University hospital, 14 November 2025. Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA The story began: “Most junior doctors do not support Friday’s strike, a poll has revealed as Wes Streeting attacked the British Medical Association for going ‘against the wishes’ of its members.” The trouble is that the poll showed no such thing. It was conducted by Savanta, a reputable survey research company.
How Whitehall suppressed the truth about the doctors strike
Last Friday, the first day of the latest strike by resident doctors, the lead story on The Times front page could not have been clearer. It began: “Most junior doctors do not support Friday’s strike, a poll has revealed as Wes Streeting attacked the British Medical Association for going “against the wishes” of its members....
One hundred ways to thwart Reform
YouGov and The Times have done more than they may have realised to show how Labour could stay in office – and the Tories return from the dead. On November 5, the paper published details of a poll which explored voters’ willingness to vote tactically at the next election: how they would if “in your constituency the only two parties that appeared to have a chance of winning were…” c) Reform and the Liberal Democrats The poll reveals something remarkable.
Caerphilly: terrible for Labour, not that good for Reform
The result of yesterday’s by-election was awful for Labour; but I doubt anyone reading this will be unaware of that. So rather than repeat the obvious, I offer two thoughts about Reform. 1. In last year’s general election, it won 20 per cent in Caerphilly – five points above its Britain-wide average. Yesterday it won 36 per cent. This 16-point rise matches its national polling average (up from 15 to 31 per cent).
Voters are not listening to Labour
Polls before last week’s Labour conference showed the party in deep trouble. The first post-conference polls have brought no relief. Ministers are asking two questions (and if they aren’t, they should be): What has the government done to put off so many voters? And why is it getting so little credit for the things it has done to set Britain on the right course? Fresh data helps to answer both.
Voters are not listening
Polls before last week’s Labour conference showed the party in deep trouble. The first post-conference polls have brought no relief. Ministers are – and if they aren’t, they should be – asking two questions: ** What has the government done to put off so many voters? and Thanks for reading Peter’s Substack! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. ** Why is it getting little credit for the things it has done to set Britain on the right course?
A history lesson for Starmer and Badenoch
Politically, are you a bit down these days? Feeling that last year’s election result has turned sour? That glad, confident morning is a distant memory? That Britain these days is in as big a mess as ever? That neither Labour nor the Tories understand where they have gone wrong? If so, you are not alone. Reform’s consistent lead in the polls is a product of widespread disenchantment with both the government and the official opposition.
Sir Robert Worcester obituary
On the morning of 16 March 1976, Robert Worcester – universally known as “Bob” – received the phone call that converted him from the head of a little-known market research company into the public face of polling in Britain. The call was from Harold Evans, the editor of the Sunday Times. Harold Wilson had just announced his retirement at prime minister. Evans wanted to find out whom voters wanted as the next Labour leader.
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