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Articles by Philipp Heimberger
WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
Fiscal consequences of climate change publication_icon Meryem Gökten, Philipp Heimberger, Anna Matzner and Bernhard Schütz wiiw Working Paper No. 282, October 2026 40 pages including 2 Tables and 13 Figures We study the consequences of rising temperatures for public finances in a global panel of countries.
EU Fiscal Rules and Public Investment in the Green and Digital Transitions –
Policymakers in the EU must substantially increase public investment to achieve ambitious green and digital objectives, even as many member states face fiscal consolidation, rising ageing-related expenditure and higher defence spending. This article examines how the reformed EU fiscal framework treats public investment and whether it provides sufficient fiscal space for the green and digital transitions.
WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Die österreichische Budgetpolitik steht seit 2025 erneut im Zeichen der Konsolidierung. Vor dem Hintergrund des EU-Defizitverfahrens vergleicht diese Kurzstudie die aktuellen Maßnahmen mit früheren Konsolidierungsperioden. Grundlage ist ein eigens erstellter Datensatz zu legislativen Änderungen bei Steuern und monetären Sozialleistungen auf Bundesebene seit Mitte der 1990er-Jahre.
WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
Uneven cuts: Fiscal consolidation and the composition of government spending publication_icon Philipp Heimberger, Anna Matzner and Bernhard Schütz wiiw Working Paper No. 281, October 2026 38 pages including 2 Table and 22 Figures We present new evidence on the dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation shocks across different components of government spending.
WIIW The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche
image credit: Philipp Heimberger By Philipp Heimberger On 9 September, Philipp Heimberger, Senior Economist at wiiw and Head of the Research Group on Macroeconomics, presented a wiiw study on new sources of revenue for the EU’s next long-term budget at an event in Brussels hosted by the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC).
Europe’s Ultra-Rich Could Fund a Substantial Part of the EU’s Budget
A budget financed by wages: Gross national income-based national contributions rest largely on taxes on labour and consumption, so the EU budget ultimately leans on ordinary earners. The net-position trap: While Brussels depends on national transfers, the debate collapses into who pays in and who takes out, crowding out any discussion of European public goods.
Studie: Haushaltskürzungen gefährden die politische Stabilität
Österreich und andere EU-Länder setzen auf Budgetkonsolidierung, um das Budgetdefizit zu reduzieren. Wir liefern empirische Evidenz, dass Konsolidierungsprogramme die politische Instabilität erhöhen. Konsolidierung senkt die Zustimmungswerte der Regierung; kurzfristig steigt die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Regierungskrisen und Protestaktivitäten. Die Unterstützung in der Bevölkerung nimmt deutlich stärker ab, wenn in einem Wirtschaftsabschwung und nur ausgabenseitig gespart wird.
The EU's message on migration is wrong and short-sighted
The EU's message on migration is wrong and short-sighted - Friends of Europe
Personal stories of the Western Balkans' brain drain - Friends of Europe
Policy Voices | Personal stories of the Western Balkans' brain drain - Friends of Europe
Europe’s social contract: the stakes have never been higher
Europe’s social contract: the stakes have never been higher - Friends of Europe
Advancing the green and digital transition despite budget constraints
Advancing the green and digital transition despite budget constraints - Friends of Europe
Europa braucht mehr Investitionen, um seine Zukunft zu sichern
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Balancing Budgets with Green and Digital Ambitions
The recently enacted EU fiscal framework aims for fiscal prudence but poses challenges for funding the green and digital transition. The European Union’s revamped fiscal rules, which took effect on 30 April 2024, mark a significant shift in how member states manage their public finances. This comprehensive reform, the most substantial since the post-financial crisis tightening, seeks to rein in national deficits and debt.
Full Employment: A Survey of Theory, Empirics and Policies
Supporting Information Filename Description KYKL_12463-sup-0001-appendix.docxWord 2007 document , 127.7 KB Data S1. Appendix. References , and . 2019. “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2: 3–30. , and . 2019. “Feminist Economics: Theoretical and Political Dimensions.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology 78, no. 1: 137–166. , and . 2020.
Other Revenue for the EU Budget - Status Quo and Potential
“Other revenue” has long been neglected in the academic and policy debate on reform needs and options for the EU revenue system.
Fiscal policy for the 21st century – meeting economic, social and climate challenges (news article)
image credit: wiiw/Hans Schubert By Philipp Heimberger On November 22nd and November 23, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) hosted the second conference of the . With over 150 participants over two days, it was a great opportunity to reflect on the economic, political and climate challenges Europe is currently facing.
Reforma de las normas fiscales de la UE: más ambición
La reforma de las normas fiscales de la Unión Europea está al caer. Está sobre la mesa una propuesta legislativa de la Comisión Europea para cambiar esas normas, estableciendo límites de déficit y deuda para la política fiscal de todos los Estados miembros.
The Eurozone’s Achilles heel: Reassessing Italy’s long decline in the context of European integration and globalization
This paper analyzes how Italy’s decades-long decline turned the country into the Eurozone’s Achilles heel, the most vulnerable spot of the common currency. We use a new structuralist framework to synthesize different (competing) supply-side and demand-side explanations.
Quo vadis media pluralism in Europe? A contextualization from an Austrian perspective
Policy Recommendations The European Union should establish a permanent EU investment fund amounting to at least 1% of EU economic output per year to finance green public investment.
Budgetpolitik: Kürzungen oder Investitionen
Im Kontext von Energiekrise und Klimawandel ist eine erhebliche Ausweitung der öffentlichen Investitionen nötig. Doch der Budgetkonsolidierungsdruck wird wegen der Auswirkungen der Krisen der letzten Jahre steigen. Vor diesem Hintergrund diskutiert dieser Beitrag drei Szenarien für die Budgetpolitik, die jeweils unterschiedliche Implikationen für die Nachhaltigkeit der Staatsfinanzen und für die Erreichung von Zielen in den Bereichen Klima, Energie und Soziales haben.
Assessing the European Commission’s proposal for reforming the EU’s fiscal rules
By Philipp Heimberger image credit: wiiw/Philipp Heimberger On November 30th, the ECON Committee of the European Parliament held an expert hearing on the upcoming reform of the EU’s fiscal rules with a focus on discussing the European Commission’s recent proposals.
Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?
Supporting Information Filename Description joes12536-sup-0001-appendix.pdf900.7 KB Supporting Information REFERENCES , , & (2007). Economic growth with constraints on tax revenues and public debt: Implications for fiscal policy and cross-country differences [Working paper 12750]. NBER. , & (2013). Growth and productivity: The role of government debt. International Review of Economics and Finance, 25(C), 384–407. , & (2015).
EZB-Zinserhöhungen behindern Klimaschutz
Indem die Europäische Zentralbank Investitionskosten und konjunkturelle Lage mitbestimmt, hat sie großen Einfluss auf Möglichkeiten der Klimapolitik. Weitflächige Waldbrände, austrocknende Gewässer, Hitzewellen. Die Auswirkungen der Klimakrise trafen in diesem Sommer weite Teile Europas und der Welt. In Europa könnten durch die Folgen der Klimakatastrophe große Regionen bald kaum mehr bewohnbar sein.
How the ECB is trying to prevent a new Euro crisis
I published this column first in the German business newspaper Handelsblatt; here is an English translation: The European Central Bank's (ECB) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) has played a crucial role in preventing a crash in bond and equity markets. Markets had been under tremendous stress in March 2020 due to excessive market reactions around the impact of the pandemic, which quickly receded with the introduction of PEPP.
Hiking interest rates in Europe won't tackle inflation, only ending the war, the pandemic, and supply chain disruptions will
The central bank of the United States has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points; further rate hikes are to be expected this year. Should the European Central Bank follow the Federal Reserve by raising interest rates soon and significantly, as some economists and policy-makers urge? In fact, there are several good reasons for a more expansionary monetary policy in the euro area than in the US. Blunt instrument Over the last year, inflation in the US has consistently been much higher.
Sollte die EZB wirklich die Zinsen erhöhen?
Die US-Notenbank hat die Zinswende gestartet. In der Eurozone gibt es gute Gründe für eine eigenständige Geldpolitik. Die amerikanische Notenbank Fed hob die Leitzinsen bereits um 0,25 Prozentpunkte an; weitere Zinserhöhungen sind für dieses Jahres angekündigt. Sollte sich die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) ein Vorbild an der Fed nehmen, indem sie bald und signifikant die Zinsen anhebt? Einige Politikerinnen und Politiker, aber auch Ökonominnen und Ökonomen fordern das.
Does economic globalisation promote economic growth? A meta‐analysis
ORIGINAL ARTICLE Philipp Heimberger, Corresponding Author Philipp Heimberger heimberger@wiiw.ac.at orcid.org/0000-0001-9874-7345 Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Vienna, Austria Correspondence Philipp Heimberger, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), Rahlgasse 3, 1060 Vienna, Austria.
German inflation worries and distorted memories of history
The trauma of hyperinflation from the days of the Weimar Republic casts a long shadow. It still influences Germans' views on inflation and economic policy today. A large proportion of Germans have distorted perceptions of economic history that are firmly rooted in collective memory, fuelling current concerns about inflation. Lukas Haffert, Nils Redeker and Tobias Rommel provide a representative survey of Germans' memories of economic history concerning the interwar period.
Keynes, output gap nonsense and the EU’s fiscal rules
Last week on April 21st, there was the 75th anniversary of the death of John Maynard Keynes, one of the 20th century’s most formidable public intellectuals, who made highly influential contributions to economics. I take this anniversary as an occasion to write about something I think Keynes would be very vocal about were he still alive: the role of economic models in current policy-making. I will focus on fiscal policy in Europe.
European fiscal complacency
Yesterday, Martin Sandbu was banging the drum for more fiscal policy action in Europe: “[The] US stimulus package leaves Europe standing in the dust […] This will hasten Europe’s and the UK’s relative economic decline, especially compared with China.“ Adam Tooze has also been arguing for a bigger fiscal and monetary effort in Europe to counteract the COVID-19 crisis.
Keynes, the output gap and the EU’s fiscal rules
By Philipp Heimberger Model-based estimates restrict the fiscal space of EU countries due to their importance in the EU’s fiscal rules. Our paper provides an in-depth analysis of the underlying estimation approach of “structural” deficits and discusses how it is applied in European fiscal policy-making.
Draghi government: Seven ‘surprising’ facts about Italy
Draghi government: Seven ‘surprising’ facts about Italy 16 February 2021 The main fault line of the Eurozone and the EU lies in the South - first and foremost in Italy. By Philipp Heimberger and Nikolaus Kowall photo: iStock.com/Em Campos It is high time to take a fact-based look at the country and dispel some of the myths that continue to be spread. Italy has been running trade surpluses, and the country remains the EU’s second-largest industrial location behind Germany.
La hiperinflación y la llegada al poder de los nazis: distorsiones de la historia de Hans-Werner Sinn
Fuentes: Sin permiso Hans-Werner Sinn, uno de los economistas más influyentes de Alemania, está fomentando un viejo error alemán en el debate acerca de la respuesta política a la crisis del coronavirus. En una entrevista con la Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), vincula la hiperinflación tras la Primera Guerra Mundial en la República de Weimar, que empobreció a la clase media alemana, con una consecuencia aparente: “Diez años después eligieron a Adolf Hitler como Canciller del Reich”.
The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies
ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the performative impact of the European Commission's model for estimating ‘potential output’, which is used as a yardstick for measuring the ‘structural budget balance’ of EU countries and, hence, is crucial for coordinating European fiscal policies. In pre-crisis years, potential output estimates promoted the build-up of private debt, housing bubbles and macroeconomic imbalances.
Estimates that should set alarm bells ringing: Downgrading Germany’s fiscal space
A few weeks ago, ECB president Christine Lagarde voiced critique about it, but now the European Commission has done it again: in its latest economic forecast, it reinterprets the underutilisation of production capacities caused by the Corona crisis as a decline in potential output. According to the Commission, Germany’s potential output in 2021 will have fallen by 77 billion euros compared to the last estimate before Corona.
The power of economic models: The case of the EU's fiscal regulation framework
This paper is concerned with the impact of economic ideas on political processes and decision-making. We argue that economic models can serve as a transmission device between economic paradigms and policy programs, which allows actors drawing on the model to exercise power in decision-making.
Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta‐analysis
Abstract A large volume of econometric literature has studied the impact of economic globalisation on income inequality around the world. However, reported econometric estimates vary substantially, which makes it difficult to draw valid conclusions. This paper presents a quantitative summary and analysis of existing estimates regarding the globalisation–inequality relationship. We use a new data set consisting of 1,254 observations from 123 primary studies.
Reform der Budgetregeln in der Corona-Krise erforderlich
Die österreichische Budgetpolitik sollte perspektivisch nicht auf einen Budgetkonsolidierungskurs durch staatliche Ausgabenkürzungen gezwungen werden. Das würde die wirtschaftliche Erholung von der Corona-Krise gefährden, Unternehmen wie ArbeitnehmerInnen negativ treffen und die staatliche Handlungsfähigkeit einschränken.
Understanding economic openness: a review of existing measures
Abstract This paper surveys measures of economic openness, the latter being understood as the degree to which non-domestic actors can or do participate in a domestic economy. Based on the existing literature, the authors introduce a typology of openness indicators, which distinguishes between ‘real’ and ‘financial’ openness as well as ‘de-facto’ and ‘de-jure’ measures of openness.
Why distorted pictures of Italy are poison for European policy debates (news article)
By Philipp Heimberger and Nikolaus Kowall photo: iStock.com/Em Campos ‘A country cannot permanently live beyond its means. The Italian state must urgently tighten its belt!’ Politicians and journalists have been repeating variations of this statement again and again when it comes to discussing Italy and its economy.
Seven ‘surprising’ facts about the Italian economy
Why would affluent northern-European taxpayers want to pour money into an Italian economy that is a basket-case? Except it isn’t. Behind the deadlock exhibited at the June European Council over the recovery fund lay continued scepticism among northern member states of the eurozone as to the entitlement of southern members to substantial financial support—most especially Italy. This disposition is however based on images of the Italian economy and fiscal policies which are at odds with the data.
European burden sharing of corona crisis costs: Why Germany should lead the way
By Philipp Heimberger A highly divergent fiscal policy response by member states would result in an uneven recovery from the corona crisis and increasing economic polarisation between Northern and Southern euro area countries. Therefore, a strong and common European fiscal policy response will be needed to prevent the euro area from disintegrating over the course of this crisis.
Italy is of systemic importance – European solutions are needed (news article)
By Philipp Heimberger photo: iStock.com/Em Campos Because Italy is of systemic importance, the developments there will also put the euro area as a whole to the acid test once again. Those who want to prevent the collapse of the euro must participate in common European solutions that create a credible perspective of positive economic development in the south of the euro area for the period after the lockdown.
Does economic globalization affect government spending? A meta-analysis - Public Choice
Abstract Despite extensive econometric testing, the research literature has been unable to draw firm conclusions regarding the effect of economic globalization on government spending. This paper explores various dimensions of the wide variation in existing estimates of the globalization-spending relationship.
A Money View of Keynes, Keynesians, and Post-Keynesians
The central bank today is not just the government’s bank, but also a bankers’ bank, a truly hybrid institution From time to time, someone asks me about the connection between the “money view”, which I profess in my online course “Economics of Money and Banking”, and so-called “Modern Money Theory,” which has been put forward as a heterodox post-Keynesian alternative to standard macroeconomic theory.
"Output Gap Nonsense" and the EU’s Fiscal Rules
This column deals with recent debates concerning the technical foundations underlying the EU’s fiscal rules, which are of great political relevance. Leading economists of the European Commission have responded to criticism concerning the European Commission’s model framework for estimating potential output and output gaps, which are relevant for assessing fiscal policies in EU member states.
Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock
This paper discusses how the technical foundations of the EU’s fiscal rules constrain the fiscal space in EU countries in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the evidence on how estimates of potential output, which are at the heart of essential control indicators in EU fiscal surveillance, were revised in the ten years running up to the COVID-19 pandemic, and how these revisions affected the fiscal stance of EU countries.
Unemployment in Europe: What should be done?
by Philipp Heimberger In many European countries, unemployment remains higher than it was before the beginning of the financial and economic crisis about ten years ago. However, with consistent welfare-oriented economic policies, a significant improvement of the situation could be achieved at both the national and European level. These policies would have to be based above all on a public investment offensive and an active labour market policy.
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