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Articles by Ruediger Frank
Ethical Issues in North Korea Research
Commentary, Human Security How do we conduct research on a country where data are often unavailable or of questionable quality? Should we publish research that could potentially be used to inflict harm on others or to support misguided policies? Should we travel to North Korea or not? Should we accept funding from state institutions?
Authoritarian Leisure: North Korea’s Wonsan-Kalma Tourism Project in Comparative Perspective
Economy Domestic Reorientation, Background, and Implications The recent opening of the Wonsan Kalma Beach Resort in the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or North Korea) has prompted questions about the state’s underlying intentions and the resort’s feasibility and future prospects. In particular, observers have expressed doubts that the estimated 20,000 vacation slots can be filled by foreign visitors. Until a few years ago, such a perspective would have been highly justified.
The New North Korea: How Geopolitical Advantages and Growing Middle Class Prosperity Challenge the Next South Korean President
On June 3, the Republic of Korea (South Korea or ROK) will hold a snap presidential election, prompted by the impeachment and removal of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The new president will be inaugurated on June 4. Current polling and political analysis indicate that Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), is the clear front-runner and as of now, most likely to win.
The New North Korea: How Geopolitical Advantages and Growing Middle Class Prosperity Challenge the Next South Korean President
1 hour ago Lieutenant Vinay Narwal of the Indian Navy was one of the unlucky tourists who were killed in the terror attack in Pahalgam in Kashmir's Anantnag district on Tuesday. Navy officials paid their respect to the soldier during the wreath-laying ceremony at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New …
The January 2025 Session of the North Korean Parliament: An Unusual Oath and the Absence of a “Russia-Effect”
Introduction Whatever the size and economic impact of North Korea’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine really is, it has so far had no visible impact on economic data and policies as announced during the recent session of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA). Abstractly speaking, we are relatively certain that there is a cause, but we cannot see the effect. Ironically, the opposite is true for a loyalty oath taken by North Korea’s Premier.
North Korea’s New Unification Policy: Implications and Pitfalls
Domestic Affairs, Foreign Affairs At the Ninth Enlarged Plenum of the Eighth WPK Central Committee in late December 2023, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un declared a “new stand on the north-south relations and the reunification policy.” This marked a significant departure from previous policies and carries profound implications: Kim Jong Un has not given up national unification.
North Korea’s De-risking Strategy and Its Implications
Commentary, Foreign Affairs The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) has been closing several of its embassies in 2023, reducing the total number of its diplomatic missions to 46.[1] One frequently cited reason is the country’s “dire economy.” However, economic problems have persisted for a long time and are therefore not sufficient to explain the recent series of embassy closures.
Satellites Can’t Get Information Into North Korea Now, but Could Have 20 Years Ago
The recent deployment of the Space X Starlink satellite Internet service to Ukraine and Iran has many wondering if such a system could be used to beam uncensored information into North Korea. Penetrating the North’s information blockade has been a challenge for decades, and satellite platforms are often seen as a possible solution. However, upon closer examination, the possibility of reaching North Koreans in this way is quite limited.
Russia and North Korea: Moving Toward Alliance 2.0?
Commentary, Foreign Affairs For more than two years, since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, relations between Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) had been uneventful, almost frozen. Fearing the spread of the coronavirus, North Korea went into extreme self-isolation. As a result, Russia’s trade and human contact with the North came to a nearly complete halt.
The Future of North Korean Studies
What is the state of North Korean Studies as a field of research, and what is its future? In June 2022, a total of 15 scholars from Europe, Asia and the United States came together in Vienna to address these and related questions for “The Future of North Korean Studies,” a workshop hosted by the Department of East Asian Studies at the University of Vienna. Over the course of two days, these four propositions were thoroughly considered: Defining the field: Is North Korean Studies a discipline?
North Korea’s Dramatically Increasing Trade Deficit With China: A Short-term Trend or Longer-term Strategy?
Economy After more than two years of isolation to try to stave off a COVID-19 outbreak in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea), the resumption of at least limited train-based trade with China earlier this year was a welcome sign to most North Korea watchers. But when that trade was halted once again in late April, questions resurfaced about the potential impact of these trade disruptions on an already difficult economic situation.
Defense Minister, GPB Boss Missing from Funeral Committee
North Korea Leadership Watch Our researchers have shared with us articles from their own pages. Please take a moment to view the article from its original source. View The DPRK’s Minister of National Defense [MND], VMar Ri Yong Gil (Ri Yo’ng-kil), and the Director of the Korean People’s Army [KPA] General Political Bureau [GPB], Gen. Kwon Yong Chin (Kwon Yo’ng-chi) do not appear on the state funeral committee organized for retired senior KPA official Marshal Hyon Chol Hae (Hyo’n Ch’o’l-hae).
Rethinking Sanctions Against North Korea: Strategic Shifts and their Implications
Domestic Affairs, Economy, Foreign Affairs Throughout the past two decades, many discussions and publications on current affairs in North Korea have had the theme of “sanctions” at their core.
North Korea's problematic Covid-19 numbers
Our researchers have shared with us articles from their own pages. Please take a moment to view the article from its original source. View By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein North Korea’s admission of a Covid-19 outbreak has understandably drawn global attention. It’s one of two countries – the other one being Eritrea – that have not yet started administering Covid-19 vaccines. North Korea also claimed, until just a few days ago, to have had zero cases of infections.
South Koreans Could Learn A Lot From the War in Ukraine
By: LTG (ret.) In-Bum Chun March 31, 2022 Foreign Affairs (Source: Yonhap) When the first artillery and rockets struck targets in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, South Koreans were having their lunch break that same Thursday. Topics of the day were the upcoming South Korean presidential elections in less than two weeks and the ever-changing situation with COVID-19.
Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: A Review and Implications
By: Rachel Minyoung Lee and Robert Carlin March 24, 2022 Commentary, Economy (Source: Rodong Sinmun) When we launched this research project last year, there were fundamental questions about the North Korean economy we felt needed to be examined: How does Pyongyang view its key economic and financial interests? How do those interests translate into policy decisions? How, once decisions are made, are new policies rolled out?
China’s Trade With North Korea Rises Slightly in January and February, Amid Partial Border Openings
By: William Brown March 23, 2022 Domestic Affairs, Economy On Sunday, China’s Customs Bureau reported a slight uptick in officially documented trade with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in January and February 2022.[1] Chinese exports of $57 and $59 million respectively compare with almost no trade during the same months of 2021. This has led to some exaggerated claims in the media about what’s going on in China-DPRK trade these days.
North Korea as a Beneficiary of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
By: Ruediger Frank March 16, 2022 Commentary, Foreign Affairs On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine. The world is only starting to understand the resulting geoeconomic and geopolitical consequences, but it is safe to say that they are and will be substantial and that North Korea is likely to benefit in economic, political and military ways. The most significant and tangible gains for North Korea will be economic.
Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking: Management System Discourse
By: Robert Carlin and Rachel Minyoung Lee February 16, 2022 Commentary, Economy This paper is the fourth installment of the “Understanding Kim Jong Un’s Economic Policymaking” series.[1] It tackles what has been the heart of Kim’s economic policy initiatives from the very start of his time in power—an effort to revive the North Korean economy by changing the incentive and responsibility structures in both the enterprise and agricultural sectors, shifting enormous power into the hands of the...
The 2022 Session of the North Korean Legislature: Strengthening Import Substitution and State Control While the Economy Stagnates
By: Ruediger Frank February 10, 2022 Domestic Affairs, Economy (Source: Rodong Sinmun) North Korea’s legislative body, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), met in Pyongyang for its annual meeting from February 6-7, 2022. Leader Kim Jong Un did not attend. Instead, Choe Ryong Hae chaired the meeting in his capacity as chairman of the Standing Committee, the SPA’s top governing body. The SPA passed new laws on childcare and the protection of overseas Koreans.
North Korea’s Strategic Vision for 2022: Focus on Rural Development
By: Ruediger Frank January 1, 2022 Domestic Affairs The 4th Plenum: Main Takeaways The 4th Plenum of the 8th Central Committee of the Korean Worker’s Party convened in Pyongyang for five days, from December 27 to December 31, 2021. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participated in the meeting in his capacity as Secretary General of the Party and gave at least two major speeches.
SPA Session: Lowest Official Growth Rate in Decades
By: Ruediger Frank January 22, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Economy (Source: Rodong Sinmun) The annual session of the North Korean parliament, the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), was held on January 17, 2021. The SPA’s role is to implement the strategic decisions made by the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP); the session was thus directly connected to the decisions made at the Eighth Party Congress, which had taken place just days before.
North Korea’s Eighth Workers’ Party Congress: Putting Things Into Context
By: Robert Carlin January 19, 2021 Domestic Affairs (Source: Rodong Sinmun) There has been a lot written about the Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), some of it good and worth reading.[1] All of it is necessarily from the perspective of observers far outside the assembly hall. No doubt, sitting in that vast space, literally filled to the gills with people, was not the most wonderful way to spend January 5-11.
Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 2 of 2)
By: Ruediger Frank January 19, 2021 Domestic Affairs (Source: Rodong Sinmun) The Eighth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) was held in North Korea earlier this month. The first part of this report highlighted mainly economic issues such as the growing dominance of the state over the market, an increasingly domestic focus of economic policy, parallels to South Korea’s development in the 1970s and details on key industries.
Key Results of The Eighth Party Congress in North Korea (Part 1 of 2)
By: Ruediger Frank January 15, 2021 Domestic Affairs, Economy The Eighth Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP, or simply the party) was held in the DPRK from January 5 to January 12, 2021. Such events are rare occasions during which the work of the past is officially analyzed, and strategic goals are set for the immediate and mid-term future. The last such Congress occurred in 2016, after a hiatus of 36 years since the Sixth Party Congress of 1980.
A Hypothetical Letter From North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong Un to US President-Elect Joseph Biden
By: Kenneth B. Dekleva M.D. November 10, 2020 Commentary Dear President-elect Biden, I am writing this letter to wish you my heartiest congratulations on your historic election victory over US President Donald Trump, with whom I have had a warm and close relationship.[1] As you are aware, he and I have met three times since 2018 to peaceably resolve the differences between our two countries.
“The Most Impressive Private Intelligence Operation”: Review of "The Mole"
By: Ruediger Frank and Peter Ward October 20, 2020 Commentary The Mole Directed by Mads Brügger. Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the United Kingdom: Piraya Film I, Wingman Media, BBC, NRK, DR and SVT, 2020. Web Episode Series, 123 min (UK). What Is The Mole? Many Western documentaries on North Korea follow a similar script: footage from one or more tourist visits to the country, supplemented by interviews done in South Korea, the USA and/or Europe. The Mole is different.
Pyongyang General Hospital After One Month: Building Outline Clear
By: Martyn Williams and Peter Makowsky April 14, 2020 Domestic Affairs, Satellite Imagery Construction on the new Pyongyang General Hospital has continued at such pace that for the first time—after just under one month—the overall outline of the building is visible. Commercial satellite imagery from April 14 shows clear outlines of the two towers that will dominate the rear of the hospital.
The 2020 Parliamentary Session in North Korea: Self-Criticism and Questionable Optimism Concerning Economic Development
By: Ruediger Frank April 13, 2020 Domestic Affairs, Economy The North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly session took place this Sunday. Here are the main takeaways: North Korea’s economy remains inward-oriented. Neither a major crisis nor a major economic breakthrough was reported.
Wonsan-Kalma Beach Resort: April Opening Feels Doubtful
By: Peter Makowsky April 2, 2020 Domestic Affairs, Satellite Imagery Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Wonsan-Kalma Beach Resort suggests plans to open the resort in April 2020 may be delayed, as construction appears to have dramatically slowed since the end of 2019. While sanctions are believed to have hindered sourcing necessary finishing materials, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is likely having a greater impact on the resort’s construction schedule, as tourism has been suspended.
North Korea’s Koryolink: Built for Surveillance and Control
By: Martyn Williams July 22, 2019 Commentary This article was published in tandem with the Washington Post: “Leaked documents reveal Huawei’s secret operations to build North Korea’s wireless network.” Eavesdropping and network security were the top concerns of the North Korean government in the months before Koryolink, the country’s current mobile network service, was launched in December 2008, according to minutes of a May 28, 2008 meeting in Kuala Lumpur between engineers from the Korea...
North Korea Is Not Desperate: The New Geostrategic Environment in East Asia
By: Ruediger Frank July 11, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs Kim Jong Un and Trump at Panmunjom. (Photo: Rodong Sinmun) The discussion surrounding the surprise meeting at the DMZ between US President Donald Trump and DPRK State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un has shown a remarkable ignorance of the fact that North Korea is by no means desperate to strike a deal with the Americans.
North Korea’s Food Situation: Bad but not Catastrophic
By: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein May 29, 2019 Economy, Human Security North Korea’s food situation is confusing. The World Food Program (WFP) and the North Korean government have effectively conveyed the message to the world that major food shortages and, some say, perhaps even a famine, are at hand. Pyongyang as well as some experts blame United Nations sanctions.
North Korean Defense Conversion: New Opportunities for Inter-Korean Cooperation?
By: Richard Sokolsky and Yuri Lee April 18, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs, Special Reports Introduction Kim Jong Un is committed to North Korea’s economic development and has prioritized this goal over military modernization. In the event a peace and security regime for the Korean Peninsula leads to North Korean agreement to reduce its conventional weapons and equipment, Kim may want to convert portions of the North’s defense industries to production of civilian goods.
EU Support for North Korean Denuclearization: Brussels May Help Pay for Implementation If It Can Play
By: Ramon Pacheco Pardo April 17, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs Diplomacy between the US and North Korea may still yield an agreement on denuclearization. Implementation of any deal will require, as it has in the past, economic incentives for an impoverished North Korea to meet its obligations. Given political realities, South Korea and perhaps China and Russia will bear the brunt of these costs.
The North Korean Parliamentary Session and Budget Report 2019: Signs of Economic Stagnation and an Open Claim to Leadership on the Korean Peninsula
By: Ruediger Frank April 13, 2019 Commentary, Domestic Affairs, Economy On April 11, 2019, the first session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA, the DPRK’s Parliament) convened at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang. Such meetings take place annually in spring, usually before the highest holiday in North Korea, the “Day of the Sun,” which is celebrated on April 15 and commemorates the birthday of the country’s founder Kim Il Sung.
US-DPRK Negotiations after Hanoi: Reconcilable Differences?
By: Daniel Wertz March 4, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong Un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea meet for a social dinner Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi, for their second summit meeting. (Official White House Photo by Joyce N.
US-North Korea Relations: From Infancy to Maturity
By: Ruediger Frank March 1, 2019 Commentary, Foreign Affairs (Photo: Rodong Sinmun.) When Chairman Kim and President Trump arrived in Hanoi, it was broadly assumed that after their meeting they would present a deal to formally end the Korean War. This has not happened; both delegations left with no document signed despite a friendly dinner on February 27 and formal negotiations on February 28.
Libyan Lessons for North Korea: A Case of Déjà Vu
By: Ruediger Frank March 21, 2011 Foreign Affairs When the various uprisings began in North Africa and the Middle East in January 2011, the combination of wishful thinking and a lack of knowledge led some to hope for a similar process to occur in North Korea.
Kim Jong Un's New Year’s Address: The Art of Propaganda
By: Martyn Williams January 4, 2019 Commentary, Domestic Affairs, Foreign Affairs Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s address got a makeover in 2019. Gone was the lectern and flowers in front of a large assembly hall, and in came an armchair and a more relaxed style. KCTV thankfully got rid of most of the absurd recorded applause that punctuated his speech in previous years, although snippets were still used at the start and end. Kim Jong Un’s new setting for the 2019 New Year’s address. Photo: KCTV.
Hints for 2019: Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Address
By: Robert Carlin January 3, 2019 Commentary, Domestic Affairs, Foreign Affairs Fireworks in Pyongyang. Photo: KCNA. In his January 1st New Year’s speech, Kim Jong Un was almost relentlessly positive in discussing DPRK-US relations, a topic that took up an unusually large portion of the entire address.
Kim Jong Un’s 2019 New Year’s Address: Dropping a Strategic Bombshell
By: Ruediger Frank January 2, 2019 Commentary, Domestic Affairs, Foreign Affairs Photo: Rodong Sinmun Kim Jong Un gave his much awaited 2019 New Year’s speech on the morning of January 1. Considering the many breakthrough events of the past year, there was not much room left for a big surprise.
Kim Jong Un’s Risky Gambit
Kim Jong Un is in the midst of a complex juggling act. He has to keep at least four crucial, long-term initiatives in the air, and he cannot afford to drop any of them.
North Korea’s Economic Policy in 2018 and Beyond: Reforms Inevitable, Delays Possible
Kim Jong Un has based his claim to legitimacy as North Korea’s leader on economic performance. This makes him more vulnerable to economic crises than his predecessors. If he wants to stay in power and achieve Korean unification under his leadership, he will have to succeed in making North Korea the next East Asian tiger. However, reaching such an ambitious goal will be impossible without decisive steps towards privatization.
The Specter of Taft-Katsura 2.0: Is a US-China Deal Far-Fetched?
A few months ago, the possibility of a direct meeting between US President Donald Trump and DPRK Chairman Kim Jong Un seemed as remote as North Korean denuclearization. The verdict is still out on how plausible achieving the latter really is, but the summit has been announced and now awaits more specification. The biggest mystery concerns possible outcomes.
US Troops in Korea: From History’s Vantage Point
Robert Carlin recently observed that despite Pyongyang’s historical demands for the removal of US forces as a condition for peace, it might not want to see US forces rapidly depart. Consistent with this, there was no direct mention of US forces in the Panmunjom Declaration following the Inter-Korean Summit, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in has stated Kim Jong Un would not insist on their withdrawal.
The North Korean Parliamentary Session and Budget Report 2018: Cautious Optimism for the Summit Year
On April 11, 2018, the 6th session of the 13th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) of the DPRK convened at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in Pyongyang, featuring a general report on the economy and a report on the state budget. Such meetings take place annually in spring, and neither the parliamentary session nor its timing this year was particularly extraordinary.
Please Go, But Not Quite Yet: The Question of US Troops in South Korea
In the run up to what is certainly going to be one summit (North-South Korea) and possibly a second (US-DPRK), most observers are focusing on the nuclear issue. In a contagion of self-hypnosis, pundits are walking around muttering the word “denuclearization” over and over. By contrast, we can be sure the North Koreans are alert and awake, confident in the knowledge that Kim Jong Un has a full range of options. His possible menu is long and varied—baked, fried, parboiled, steamed.
"The Country I Saw," or "How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love North Korea’s Bomb (Almost)"
Wonkish hearts are aflutter over a new movie produced by the DPRK’s official film studio, Chosun Art Film Studio. The movie—actually four full-length sequels to a 1988 propaganda piece called The Country I Saw—is the fictional story of how one unassuming Japanese professor of international relations learns to stop worrying and love North Korea’s bomb. Wonkish hearts are beating fast for two semi-animated scenes: one of the 2009 rocket launch and another of North Korea’s 2009 nuclear test.
Korea 2018: The Beginning of the End of the Post-1990 World Order?
After eleven years without any top level contact between South and North Korea, the second such exchange has taken place this year when a South Korean delegation visited Pyongyang and was able to meet the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It returned with plans for a summit meeting at Panmunjom—a neutral place—in April and even the promise of a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing under certain conditions. How was that possible, and what could be the implications?
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