Sean Gossel
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Articles by Sean Gossel
The Promise and Peril of FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa
Skip to main content Overcoming Resource Dependence, Underdevelopment and Dysfunctional Capitalism Book 2025 Overview Examines the opportunities and risk of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa Highlights how FDI can supplement domestic savings, drive financial sector growth and increase international integration Shows how FDI can lead to environmental degradation, the exploitation of labour, and tax evasion Part of the book series: Palgrave Studies in African and Development Economics...
Rapacious greed rules as South Africa transitions into a violent democracy
STATE OF THE NATION OP-ED Illustrative image | Justice Mbuyiseli Madlanga. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla / Gallo Images / Daily Maverick) | Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi. (Photo: Darren Stewart / Gallo Images) | President Cyril Ramaphosa. (Photo: Misha Jordaan / Gallo Images) South Africa has undergone a second transition, away from the ideals of a constitutional democracy, first into a gatekeeper state, and then increasingly into what academics call a ‘violent democracy’.
AUTOCRACY ADORATION OP-ED: Trying to make sense of the senseless — South Africa’s bizarre fealty to Russia
AUTOCRACY ADORATION OP-ED The South African government appears to mistakenly believe that it can continue to side with Russia in the Ukraine conflict without any repercussions from an increasingly unified and clearsighted West. This may be a grave miscalculation with long-term consequences. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the ANC government’s foreign policy has been a seemingly bewildering display of hubris, contradiction, and blatant double-speak.
GRAFT OP-ED: Never mind a wealth tax, South Africa needs a corruption tax on companies that collude in State Capture
The testimony and first part of the Zondo Commission report, as well as the revelations about VBS and PPE corruption, have unambiguously demonstrated the extent to which private and public entities have feasted off SA’s fiscus. The revelations have also thrust open the veil over the extent to which the private sector assisted politicians and public sector employees to design, operationalise, and facilitate large-scale corruption.
OP-ED: How political parties die: The glue holding the ANC coalition together is rapidly flaking
Illustrative image | Source: ANC flag (Photo: Leila Dougan) The survival of the ANC comes down to its last remaining trump cards – party loyalty and the increasingly outdated and romanticised focus on the Struggle against apartheid. Its core voters are ageing and not adequately being replaced by young voters. Even the long-suffering political support of the trade union movement is becoming less significant.
OP-ED: Service delivery gap: The pros and cons of semi-privatising South Africa’s failing municipalities
A service delivery protest in Alexandra township. Johannesburg. (Photo: Gallo Images) A range of non-governmental roleplayers have stepped into the widening municipal service delivery gap, providing significant benefits for communities. But the risks of such privatisation must be carefully weighed. Clearly a fundamental reform of the civil service is required to mitigate against the crisis in the provision of public goods and service.
South Africa: By Enforcing the Step-Aside Rule, the ANC Has Taken the First Step Towards Becoming a Political Party
The current collision between the 'two ANCs' is a clash between the provincial 'homeland' mentality of the RET faction versus the impulses of Cyril Ramaphosa's modernisation faction. To win back voter trust and support the ANC will need to adapt to being an open and transparent political party. Sean Gossel is Associate Professor in Financial Economics at the Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town.
OP-ED: By enforcing the step-aside rule, the ANC has taken the first step towards becoming a political party
Illustrative image | Sources: Leila Dougan | Flickr/ GCIS | Rawpixel The current collision between the ‘two ANCs’ is a clash between the provincial ‘homeland’ mentality of the RET faction versus the impulses of Cyril Ramaphosa’s modernisation faction. To win back voter trust and support the ANC will need to adapt to being an open and transparent political party. Sean Gossel is Associate Professor in Financial Economics at the Graduate School of Business (GSB), University of Cape Town.
ANALYSIS | Student protests: The ANC revolution is eating its children
Students protest over NSFAS allowances in the centre of East London last week. (Photo: Nombulelo Damba-Hendrik, GroundUp) Amid the infighting between ANC factions, the poor that lose out as social assistance continues to shrink; unemployment, poverty, and inequality increase; and "free" education remains an unattainable dream, writes Sean Gossel.
Will Mboweni manage to cut the wage bill and build an investment friendly environment?
In a time of crisis, such as the Covid-19 pandemic we are facing, in which growth has all but collapsed leading to huge job losses andlower tax revenues, budget speechescan beRubicon-esque in importance. They can provide an administration with a chance to reset, chart a new path for economic prosperity, and lift the spirit of the nation.
linking academia, business and industry through research
Home Full-text access for editors Do long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings positively affect bond and equity market efficiency in Africa? by Misheck Mutize; Sean J. Gossel International Journal of Sustainable Economy (IJSE), Vol.
South Africa: Why South Africa Should Adopt Democratic Socialism ... and Why It Probably Won't
The ruling political and economic elites in South Africa appear to be either oblivious to or unconcerned about the prospects of the country falling off a fiscal cliff in the next four to five years. One way to avoid this would be to move urgently towards a system of democratic socialism - but that would run counter to the tenets of the ANC's outdated National Democratic Revolution. It was supposed to be very different.
OP-ED: Why South Africa should adopt democratic socialism … and why it probably won’t Original
Illustrative image | Sources: Gallo Images / Sowetan / Sandile Ndlovu | Flickr The ruling political and economic elites in South Africa appear to be either oblivious to or unconcerned about the prospects of the country falling off a fiscal cliff in the next four to five years. One way to avoid this would be to move urgently towards a system of democratic socialism – but that would run counter to the tenets of the ANC’s outdated National Democratic Revolution. It was supposed to be very different.
OP-ED: Twilight of the ANC as Ramaphoria fails to stem entrenched kleptocracy
The disparity between the ANC’s ideological founding principles and its current ethical bankruptcy becomes wider with the passing of each stalwart. The most apparent evidence of the ANC’s ethical decline has been the burgeoning kleptocracy that has developed over the course of the past two decades. South Africa has endured over 100 days of Covid-19 lockdown and has passed 500,000 infections.
OPINION | If Covid-19 doesn't destroy SA's economy, factionalism will
Government has started a process of reopening the SA economy gradually. Finance Minister Tito Mboweni has warned of an impending sovereign debt crisis if SA does not implement speedy reforms. But how likely are these reforms? Without significant policy changes there is little room to manoeuvre. The implications of ongoing factionalism are that the government no longer has sufficient gravitas and unified purpose to undertake the wide-spread reforms that could resurrect the economy in the long-run.
Africa: Everything Has Changed - the World and South Africa's Economy After COVID-19
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the world: It is possible that it will take years for the global economy to recover, which will have dire implications for South Africa's economic prospects. The impending global depression and our weak state means that most South Africans will find the coming months extremely difficult to manage. With the UN calling Covid-19 the worst crisis humanity has faced since World War II, it is trite to say that the pandemic has changed the world as we know it.
CORONAVIRUS OP-ED: Everything has changed: The world and South Africa’s economy after Covid-19
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the world: It is possible that it will take years for the global economy to recover, which will have dire implications for South Africa’s economic prospects. The impending global depression and our weak state means that most South Africans will find the coming months extremely difficult to manage. With the UN calling Covid-19 the worst crisis humanity has faced since World War II, it is trite to say that the pandemic has changed the world as we know it.
South Africa Gets Close. Whats Next From Rating Agencies?
Moody’s, the only rating agency that keeps South Africa above junk, is scheduled to review its credit rating in November 2019. Shutterstock The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months.
Moody's downgrade will be final nail
Ratings agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on SA's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from "stable" to "negative". A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country's rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This would make it more difficult to stabilise public debt.
What happens next in the event of a Moody’s downgrade
The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on SA’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of a country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-GDP ratio. This would make it more difficult to stabilise public debt.
South Africa is close to 'junk status' from all three rating agencies. What could follow?
The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This would make it more difficult to stabilise public debt.
SA is likely to soon be rated ‘junk’ by all three ratings agencies. How bad will it be?
Misheck Mutize and Sean Gossel Moody’s rating agency. Shutterstock Other countries have walked this treacherous path before. It didn’t turn out too well for them. The ratings agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months.
South Africa Close to 'Junk Status' From All Three Rating Agencies. What Would Follow?
The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from "stable" to "negative". A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country's rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This would make it more difficult to stabilise public debt.
South Africa is close to ‘junk status’ from all three rating agencies. What comes next?
Moody’s, the only rating agency that keeps South Africa above junk, is scheduled to review its credit rating in November 2019. Shutterstock Evidence from around the world suggests that economic crisis often follows unanimous junk ratings. The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”.
South Africa close to ‘junk status’ from all three rating agencies. What would follow?
By: Misheck Mutize, University of Cape Town and Sean Gossel, University of Cape Town The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio.
South Africa close to 'junk status' from all three rating agencies. What would follow?
The rating agency Fitch recently revised the outlook on South Africa’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating down from “stable” to “negative”. A credit rating outlook indicates the potential direction of the country’s rating over the intermediate term, typically six months. Fitch pointed to the expected increase in the government debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. This would make it more difficult to stabilise public debt.
The critical choices Cyril Ramaphosa will have to make to save SA's economy
Members of the Landless People’s Movement protest outside the Constitutional Court in Joburg. File picture: Ziphozonke Lushaba/African News Agency (ANA) South Africa’s economy is in dire straits. Unemployment has reached a 15-year high of 27.6%. And in the first quarter of this year GDP growth dropped by 3.2%. That’s the biggest quarterly drop in a decade.
Ramaphosa's critical choices to get South Africa back on track
South Africa’s economy is in dire straits. Unemployment has reached a 15-year high of 27.6%. And in the first quarter of this year GDP growth dropped by 3.2%. That’s the biggest quarterly drop in a decade. Considered in conjunction with the country’s dismal education outcomes, which the IMF found are perpetuating inequality and contributing to the country’s low economic growth, and the possibility of a ratings downgrade, the outlook isn’t auspicious.
How SA's broken state-owned companies made the 'new dawn' a fake resurrection
When Cyril Ramaphosa took over the presidency of the country just over a year ago, few wanted to think that South Africa's 'new dawn' would turn out to be yet another fake resurrection; but unfortunately, this increasingly appears to be the case.
South Africa: Why Ramaphosa Can't Stop ANC's Decline, Even With An Election Win
analysis By Sean Gossel, University of Cape Town In recent months there has been conjecture that if South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa wins a suitably large majority of the upcoming national vote, he will be able to achieve two notable outcomes. Firstly, he'll be able reverse the governing African National Congress's (ANC's) slide into populism and factionalism. And he'll be able to see off challenges from the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the country's third largest party.
Why Ramaphosa can’t stop the ANC’s decline, even with a win at the polls
In recent months there has been conjecture that if South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa wins a suitably large majority of the upcoming national vote, he will be able to achieve two notable outcomes. Firstly, he’ll be able reverse the governing ANC’s slide into populism and factionalism. And he’ll be able to see off challenges from the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the country’s third largest party.
South Africa: Why Ramaphosa Can't Stop the ANC's Decline, Even With a Win At the Polls
analysis By Sean Gossel, University of Cape Town In recent months there has been conjecture that if South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa wins a suitably large majority of the upcoming national vote, he will be able to achieve two notable outcomes. Firstly, he'll be able reverse the governing African National Congress's (ANC's) slide into populism and factionalism. And he'll be able to see off challenges from the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the country's third largest party.
Why Ramaphosa can’t stop the ANC’s decline, even with a win at the polls
Your Name: Your Email: Send Email To: Keep this field blank South Africa Critics and opposition party leaders are arguing that voters vote for the ANC – not for Ramaphosa. In recent months there has been conjecture that if South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa wins a suitably large majority of the upcoming national vote, he will be able to achieve two notable outcomes. Firstly, he’ll be able reverse the governing African National Congress’s (ANC’s) slide into populism and factionalism.
Why Ramaphosa can't stop the ANC's decline, even with a win at the polls
In recent months there has been conjecture that if South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa wins a suitably large majority of the upcoming national vote, he will be able to achieve two notable outcomes. Firstly, he’ll be able reverse the governing African National Congress’s (ANC’s) slide into populism and factionalism. And he’ll be able to see off challenges from the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the country’s third largest party.
South Africa:Ramaphosa's Efforts Will Fail Unless Corrupt Officials Are Brought to Book
South Africa's new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrong doers of former President Jacob Zuma's era are going to be held accountable through prosecution. Numerous academic studies, including mine, show that investors consider the effective execution of law and order as an indicator of property rights protection.
South Africa: Ramaphosa's Efforts Will Fail Unless Corrupt Officials Are Brought to Book
analysis By Sean Gossel, University of Cape Town and Timothy LondonSouth Africa's new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrong doers of former President Jacob Zuma's era are going to be held accountable through prosecution.
OPINION: Ramaphosa’s Efforts Will Fail Unless Corrupt Officials Are Brought To Book
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has been showered with praise for his early moves in fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrongdoers from Jacob Zuma's era are going to be held accountable through prosecution. Numerous academic studies, including mine, show that investors consider the effective execution of law and order as an indicator of property rights protection.
Ramaphosa's 'new dawn' will not see light of day with corrupt officials in tow
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrong doers of former president Jacob Zuma’s era are going to be held accountable through prosecution.
Ramaphosa's efforts will fail unless corrupt officials are brought to book
South Africa’s new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrong doers of former President Jacob Zuma’s era are going to be held accountable through prosecution. Numerous academic studies, including mine, show that investors consider the effective execution of law and order as an indicator of property rights protection.
Ramaphosa's efforts will fail unless corrupt officials are brought to book
South Africa’s new President, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that wrong doers of former President Jacob Zuma’s era are going to be held accountable through prosecution. Numerous academic studies, including mine, show that investors consider the effective execution of law and order as an indicator of property rights protection.
Ramaphosa is wasting his time if he doesn’t prosecute the corrupt
South Africa’s new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has been showered with praise for his early moves of fighting corruption. But he will need to do much more to win back investor confidence. Critically, Ramaphosa needs to display that the wrongdoers of former President Jacob Zuma’s era are going to be held accountable through prosecution. Numerous academic studies, including mine, show that investors consider the effective execution of law and order an indicator of property rights protection.
No more mercy for bad behaviour at South Africa's state owned companies
South Africa’s 2018 national budget was presented amid growing concern about the financial sustainability of key state owned enterprises such as the power utility Eskom and South African Airways. Sibonelo Radebe asked Misheck Mutize and Sean Gossel to set out what the budget means for them. What is your general impression of the budget speech?
Why Zuma’s free higher education plan will cripple SA’s finances
South Africa’s fee-free higher education initiative, controversially introduced by President Jacob Zuma in the dying weeks of 2017, will plunge the country into a deeper financial crisis if it isn’t adjusted one way or another. Days after Zuma made his surprise announcement, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress. He is set to become the country’s president when Zuma’s term expires if the ANC wins the country’s 2019 national elections.
Why Zuma's free higher education plan will cripple South Africa's finances | African Independent
South Africa’s fee-free higher education initiative, controversially introduced by President Jacob Zuma in the dying weeks of 2017, will plunge the country into a deeper financial crisis if it isn’t adjusted one way or another. Days after Zuma made his surprise announcement, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress. He is set to become the country’s president when Zuma’s term expires if the ANC wins the country’s 2019 national elections.
South Africa: Why Zuma's Free Higher Education Plan Will Cripple South Africa's Finances
analysis By Misheck Mutize, University of Cape Town and Sean GosselSouth Africa's fee-free higher education initiative, controversially introduced by President Jacob Zuma in the dying weeks of 2017, will plunge the country into a deeper financial crisis if it isn't adjusted one way or another. Days after Zuma made his surprise announcement, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Africa's ruling party, the African National Congress.
Why Zuma’s free higher education plan will cripple SA’s finances
The country’s fee-free higher education initiative, controversially introduced by President Jacob Zuma in the dying weeks of 2017, will plunge the country into a deeper financial crisis if it isn’t adjusted one way or another.Days after Zuma made his surprise announcement, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress.
Why Zuma's free higher education plan will cripple South Africa's finances
South Africa’s fee-free higher education initiative, controversially introduced by President Jacob Zuma in the dying weeks of 2017, will plunge the country into a deeper financial crisis if it isn’t adjusted one way or another. Days after Zuma made his surprise announcement, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Africa’s ruling party, the African National Congress. He is set to become the country’s president when Zuma’s term expires if the ANC wins the country’s 2019 national elections.
South Africa: finely balanced between autocracy and democracy
South Africa has spent the last 20 years in transition, oscillating between a deepening and a reversal of democratic liberties. Global patterns suggest that the country has a higher chance of falling back into an autocracy than becoming an established democracy. But there is still hope. Renewed civil engagement, evident in the #ZumaMustFall and #FeesMustFall movements, among others, can put it back on track.
Breaking Zuma’s Kleptocracy is up to all of us
IN 2011, Zwelinzima Vavi, Cosatu’s now ex-secretary general, warned that the ANC was being captured by a “powerful, corrupt, predatory elite.”[1] Since then, ongoing revelations have suggested that the South African state under President Zuma morphed into a Kleptocracy. Kleptocracy derives from the Greek words kleptes, meaning ‘thief’, and kratos, meaning ‘rule’.
Can Zim ride the optimism wave and leapfrog to Economy 4.01?
The momentous shift in Zimbabwe has opened up the space for political and economic reform that has the potential to reinvigorate the entire SADC region, but it’s a window of opportunity that is likely to be short, say Tim London and Sean Gossel. THE mood in Zimbabwe is cautiously optimistic right now. At his inauguration, President Emmerson Mnangagwa told Zimbabweans that they must set aside “poisoned” politics and work together to rebuild the nation and re-engage the world.
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