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Articles by Sergey Radchenko
China Is Sabotaging the World That Enables Its Rise
Following the back-to-back state visits to China in May by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, many U.S. and European commentators noted that the summit meetings yielded little of real substance. But from a Chinese perspective, that didn’t matter. What mattered were the visuals, broadcast in the Chinese state media: like the emperors of old, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was receiving tribute missions from the most important foreign potentates.
The Nord Stream Conspiracy by Bojan Pancevski
If you haven’t yet read Bojan Pancevski’s marvellous page-turner, The Nord Stream Conspiracy (https://www.amazon.com/Nord-Stream-Conspiracy-Inside-Explosions/dp/1250410436), I recommend that you do. It’s a brilliant work of investigative journalism, a study in geopolitics, and a spy thriller all in one. And it fills many gaps in the story. The sabotage of Nord Stream 1 & 2 on September 26, 2022 resulted in a flurry of speculation about the culprits. Who could’ve done it? Russia? But what’s the motive?
Rasputin by Antony Beevor — the corrupt prophet at the heart of a rotten Russian empire
“The country had never known such degradation and shame”; it was blighted by “brazen profiteering” and “total corruption”.
‘I had poked the bear right in the eye': My fight to renounce my Russian citizenship
One morning in May 2025, I walked briskly down Bayswater Road along the northern edge of London's Kensington Gardens until I reached the gates of the Russian embassy. Its formidable outer wall, already topped with razor wire, now had the additional protection of a crowd control barrier. But there was no crowd, just a lone man feebly protesting from the other side of the road. In the early days of the war, the embassy was besieged by angry protesters.
Putin’s Persian Problem
Ante una denuncia efectuada por una asociación que gestiona los derechos de propiedad intelectual de autores y editores, hemos decidido, como medida preventiva, inhabilitar de forma temporal el acceso a determindso contenidos.
Trump's Attack on Iran Has Revealed Putin's Impotence
Foreign & Public Diplomacy Russia Iran There is a view that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran benefits Russia. The shift of U.S. attention and resources to the Middle East arguably makes it easier for Russian President Vladimir Putin to wage his war in Ukraine. Surging oil prices help enrich the Kremlin’s coffers. Washington’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil is one indication of how Russia stands to win from this new war. Yet a close look reveals a more complex picture.
How the United States lost Iran
King of Kings: The Fall of the Shah, the Iranian Revolution and the Unmaking of the Modern Middle East, Scott Anderson, Hutchinson Heinemann, £25. Iran is not the worst disaster in the history of United States foreign policy – not even close – but it gets written about a lot. One reason is that Iran remains a source of instability in the Middle East – rarely more clear than now – and, if its nuclear ambitions are to be taken seriously, a long-term threat to American security.
Russia's Arctic game
President Trump’s dramatic claim to Greenland spiralled into an unprecedented crisis for the trans-Atlantic alliance. Although Trump appeared to backtrack on his intention to annex the Danish territory and, in his speech in Davos on 21 January 2026, promised that he would not resort to military means to press his claims, the crisis left a bitter aftertaste. For many Europeans, it highlighted Trump’s fickleness and America’s general unreliability.
Reading Kofman
Michael Kofman has a great piece in Foreign Affairs this week: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukraines-war-endurance. It’s an excellent overview of the four years of war, where he shows how both Russia and Ukraine have adapted to changing battlefield conditions. The piece makes a number of important claims, for example this here: We’ve heard this criticism many times from the Ukrainians.
Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity — brutality behind the propaganda
Ever since Frank Dikötter’s first book, The Discourse of Race in Modern China (1992), this prolific star of China studies has challenged...
The Ukraine war pessimists were proven right this year
As the Russian-Ukrainian full-scale war nears its fourth anniversary, Vladimir Putin looks confident, even cocky. It is not that he has achieved great breakthroughs on the battlefield. The Russians have managed, haltingly, to occupy a little more of Donbas, but one would have to zoom in on the map to see these gains, which amount perhaps to 1 per cent of the (now hopelessly ruined) Ukrainian territory – paid for with hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers.
Trump and Putin share a craving for status. That’s why they both want to destroy Europe
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, 15 August 2025. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters There are people who argue that Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is not motivated by fears or imperial ambitions, but by other countries’ disrespect. Russia once commanded authority as one of the world’s two superpowers, but it has since forfeited that status.
Trump and Putin share a craving for status. That’s why they both want to destroy Europe
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, 15 August 2025. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters There are people who argue that Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is not motivated by fears or imperial ambitions, but by other countries’ disrespect. Russia once commanded authority as one of the world’s two superpowers, but it has since forfeited that status.
America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine | Foreign Affairs
In August, U.S. President Donald Trump was disappointed when a meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine. “We didn’t get there,” Trump acknowledged at the time. Putin had evinced little interest in ceding ground on his maximalist demands, making a peace deal look remote, but the entirely predictable failure of the Alaska misadventure evidently did not deter Trump from trying again.
America’s Magical Thinking About Ukraine
In August, U.S. President Donald Trump was disappointed when a meeting in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough in ending the war in Ukraine. “We didn’t get there,” Trump acknowledged at the time. Putin had evinced little interest in ceding ground on his maximalist demands, making a peace deal look remote, but the entirely predictable failure of the Alaska misadventure evidently did not deter Trump from trying again.
The Global Reach of the War in Ukraine
This article is reserved for War on the Rocks members. Join our community to unlock exclusive insights and analysis. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the war has had ripple effects around the world. We asked five experts to assess how the war has affected key regions beyond Europe — from East Asia to the Middle East and Africa to Latin America.Read more below.Sergey Radchenko Wilson E.
The Reeducation of Russia’s Military
Play Listen to the Episode 00:00 / 00:00 MP3 Close audio player Ever since Russia started its war in Ukraine, assessments of its military power have vacillated wildly. First, Russian forces were supposed to overrun Ukraine and crush any resistance in a matter of days. Then, they were thought to be so weak that a Ukrainian counteroffensive or a new capability might cause them to collapse altogether.
Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond
Earlier this month, a swarm of Russian drones violated Poland’s borders. Some were shot down. A few days later, another Russian drone overflew Romania en route to Ukraine. The Romanian air defence let it get away. Then, on 19 September, three Russian MiG-31 fighters intruded into Estonia’s airspace. Italian F-35s – in the area on a Nato mission – intercepted the Russians and saw them off.
Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond
A Nato military crew boards an air surveillance aircraft ahead of a flight over Polish airspace on 19 September 2025. Photograph: John Thys/AFP/Getty Images Earlier this month, a swarm of Russian drones violated Poland’s borders. Some were shot down. A few days later, another Russian drone overflew Romania en route to Ukraine. The Romanian air defence let it get away. Then, on 19 September, three Russian MiG-31 fighters intruded into Estonia’s airspace.
Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond
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The Real Losers of Russia’s War: Ukraine, Europe and Russia Itself
U.S. President Donald Trump has a remarkable ability to be appear differently to different people. Like the Wizard of Oz, now he is a giant talking head, now a beautiful maiden, now a beast, now a ball of fire. The man behind these disguises is hard to pin down, and yet the fate of whole countries depends on what Trump really thinks — nowhere more so than in the case of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Trump’s latest pronouncement on the war in Ukraine was as enigmatic as ever.
Europe’s Delayed Reckoning With Russia
In the early hours of September 10, Polish and NATO forces shot down several of the 19 Russian drones estimated to have crossed into Polish airspace—an unprecedented incursion that caused consternation and alarm throughout Europe. Russia denied responsibility, implying that the drones had simply lost their way; NATO and European officials suggested the violation was intentional. Whatever the case, the clash marked the first time that NATO engaged enemies in allied territory.
Xi’s Pablum and Power
Splendidly dressed dancers moved about the stage swiftly in a colorful performance as nearly 30 world leaders looked gravely on. Gathered in Tianjin for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), these assembled dignitaries were also taking part in Beijing’s carefully choreographed pageantry. Their presence was meant to proclaim China’s glory as the center of the non-Western world. The SCO, founded in 2001, was formerly written off as the dictators’ club.
Xi’s Pablum and Power
TUOLUMNE COUNTY, Calif. (AP) — One of nearly two dozen fires burning across Northern California on Wednesday scorched homes in a Gold Rush town settled in the 1850s by thousands of Chinese miners driven out of a nearby camp. The quick-moving fire in the Sierra Nevada foothills threatened the few …
Beijing’s Military Parade Meant More Than the Pageantry of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit
Geopolitics Military China Russia Europe Splendidly dressed dancers moved about the stage swiftly in a colorful performance as nearly 30 world leaders looked gravely on. Gathered in Tianjin for the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), these assembled dignitaries were also taking part in Beijing’s carefully choreographed pageantry. Their presence was meant to proclaim China’s glory as the center of the non-Western world.
Putin has yet to make any real concessions
After the jaw-dropping spectacle of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, there was another full day of theater on Monday as Trump hosted European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Yet the results of this three-day diplomatic pageant are embarrassingly modest.
Putin hasn’t made any real concessions yet
After the jaw-dropping spectacle of the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, there was another full day of theatre on Monday as Trump hosted European leaders and President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Yet the results of this three-day diplomatic pageant are embarrassingly modest.
Not Unprecedented but Unprincipled
U.S. President Donald Trump has an unsurpassed talent for pulling surprises on the weary world. But even by Trump’s rigorous standards, the announcement last week of his forthcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin has dumbfounded audiences worldwide. The last time that anyone was so perplexed, horrified, or excited about any summit was when former U.S. President Richard Nixon visited communist China. “This was a week that changed the world”, Nixon said of his 1972 trip.
The enduring allure of the summit
Summits continue to fascinate – especially when they could conceivably usher in major changes. There is something spellbinding about these occasions, when leaders come together to confer, quarrel, and, occasionally, make decisions that will change the course of history. British historian David Reynolds – the author of Summits: Six Meetings That Shaped the Twentieth Century – describes their enduring allure: A perilous encounter between two adversaries.
Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska Helps Russia at Europe's Expense
Foreign & Public Diplomacy Russia Ukraine U.S. President Donald Trump has an unsurpassed talent for pulling surprises on the weary world. But even by Trump’s rigorous standards, the announcement last week of his forthcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin has dumbfounded audiences worldwide. The last time that anyone was so perplexed, horrified, or excited about any summit was when former U.S. President Richard Nixon visited communist China.
How Putin got the Middle East wrong
A fresh conflagration in the Middle East following Israeli and then US strikes on Iran, and the Iranian response, has created a dilemma for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, for whom this volatile region is not a strategic priority, but who feels compelled nevertheless to be seen as a significant regional player. There are two risks. First, there is the risk of being irrelevant.
Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine
It has been nearly three months since U.S. President Donald Trump launched a major effort to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. The diplomatic exchanges that followed have yet to produce meaningful results. In Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump faces a crafty, experienced adversary who hopes to capitalize on the American president’s impatience with the war to coerce Ukraine into signing away what the Russians have failed to win by force on the battlefield.
Why Peace Talks Fail In Ukraine
… Learning the Right Lessons From Three Years of Grinding War and Faltering Negotiations It has been nearly three months since U.S. President Donald Trump launched a major effort to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. The diplomatic exchanges that followed have yet to produce meaningful results.
Why Peace Talks Fail in Ukraine
It has been nearly three months since U.S. President Donald Trump launched a major effort to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. The diplomatic exchanges that followed have yet to produce meaningful results. In Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump faces a crafty, experienced adversary who hopes to capitalize on the American president’s impatience with the war to coerce Ukraine into signing away what the Russians have failed to win by force on the battlefield.
The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition
“After being dismissed as a phenomenon of an earlier century, great power competition returned.” So declared the National Security Strategy that President Donald Trump released in 2017, capturing in a single line the story that American foreign policymakers have spent the last decade telling themselves and the world. In the post–Cold War era, the United States generally sought to cooperate with other powers whenever possible and embed them in an American-led global order.
Trump was naive to think he could negotiate with Putin
President Donald Trump’s creative diplomacy in the Ukraine conflict – which entails bullying the victim and making unilateral concessions to the aggressor – has achieved its latest non-result. After a telephone conversation that lasted for an hour and a half, Trump failed to convince his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to accept the US proposal for an unconditional ceasefire.
Among the rubble of Black Lives Matter Plaza
So, rest in power, Black Lives Matter Plaza. Mayor Muriel Bowser has at last caved to Republican pressure and is overseeing the renovation of the stretch of Washington’s 16th Street NW leading up to the White House ahead of the US’s 250th anniversary next year. Demolition of the plaza began Monday near Lafayette Square, where BLM protesters were cleared using tear gas in June 2020, and in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church, where an arsonist started a fire in the basement during the protest.
Republicans dare Senate Democrats to shut everything down
Call it the ultimate example of budgetary FAFO — or “F- around and find out”: Republicans are practically daring Democrats in the Senate to follow through on Chuck Schumer’s threat to vote against the six-month continuing resolution passed by the House Tuesday night on a near-party-line vote. With Senator Rand Paul joining his fellow libertarian-minded Kentuckyian Representative Thomas Massie in opposing the measure, Republicans likely need eight Democrats to cross over.
Is Ireland out of Trump’s firing line?
The Taoiseach Micheal Martin’s White House encounter with Donald Trump was controversial even before it was announced.
The US has entered a bear market
Could it be that Donald Trump actually wants a bear market now? At some point, one was bound to happen on his watch — after all, US equities weren’t going to keep up their stunning gains from the past two years for the rest of his term. A market correction was inevitable, and it seems we’ve already seen that, as the S&P 500 dipped into correction territory this week. And a bear market was almost certainly coming, given that there have been 27 of them in the S&P index since 1928.
Will Putin go along with the US ceasefire proposal?
After Ukraine accepted America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal, all eyes are on Russia’s reaction. Will Vladimir Putin — who, as President Trump has incredulously claimed, has all the cards, and at the same time no cards at all — go along with the US proposal, or choose to snub it? To answer this question, it is important to understand what Putin is trying to do.
Putin can still defeat Ukraine
After Ukraine accepted America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal, all eyes are on Russia’s reaction. Will Vladimir Putin – who, as President Trump has incredulously claimed, has all the cards, and at the same time no cards at all – go along with the US proposal, or choose to snub it? To answer this question, it is important to understand what Putin is trying to do.
Not Corrupt Enough
‘The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power.’ The subtitle of Sergey Radchenko’s book makes it sound like an aspirant bestseller from the height of America’s Red Scare. But don’t be misled by the spin or put off by the fact that you may already have a dozen books on the Cold War on your shelves. Both Radchenko’s and Vladislav Zubok’s new books are ones you want to read.
Kaspia state of mind
It’s been almost 100 years since Arcady Fixon, a refugee from the Russian Revolution, opened the doors of Caviar Kaspia on Place de la Madeleine in Paris, and began beguiling his fellow exiles and the crème of Paris society with the exotic flavors of his homeland: shiny black caviar, served with blinis or potatoes, and ice-cold vodka.
The tale of two budget bills continues
The Senate may be filled with octogenarians, but it defied the odds this week with a marathon “vote-a-rama” that lasted almost ten hours — just in time to set it up on a collision course with the Republican-led House across the Capitol. Despite the stated preference of President Donald Trump for “one big, beautiful bill” for reconciliation, the Senate pushed through a giant reconciliation bill, which will be smaller than whatever the House seems poised to pass.
The case for moving SOUTHCOM back to Panama
The recent American interest in the Panama Canal is grounded and rational — contrary to media characterizations of the renewed focus as a byproduct of the president’s impulsive fixations. The Canal, as President Trump has correctly noted, was an American development in a nation that existed mostly as a consequence of American intervention. Panama provided the setting for the Canal — and America provided the Canal itself, having taken on, in 1903, the project France failed to complete in 1890.
Elon Musk wields chainsaw at impromptu CPAC appearance
National Harbor, Maryland Elon Musk made a surprise appearance at CPAC Thursday afternoon, where Argentinian president Javier Milei presented him with a chainsaw. “This is a chainsaw for bureaucracy!” Musk said, brandishing it before a whooping crowd. The Department of Government Efficiency chief took to the stage with Newsmax host Rob Schmitt. Musk wore his MAGA hat — “dark gothic MAGA!” as he said — a black jacket and mirror shades, which he kept on for the duration of his appearance.
Trump betrayed Ukraine: will Europe step up?
The American president has pioneered a new form of diplomacy: betrayal by tweet. The mean-spirited, autocrat-indulging Donald J.
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