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Articles by Chris Turner
FX Daily: Hot Inflation To Strengthen Dollar Floor
We expect MoM US CPI to be 0.1pp higher than consensus in both headline (0.7%) and core (0.3%) today. While that shouldn’t be enough for markets to price in 50%+ chances of an October Fed hike, it can reinforce expectations of further tightening down the road and, by extension, the dollar’s floor. EUR/USD may retest recent lows before any recovery. We expect month-on-month US CPI to be 0.1pp higher than consensus in both headline and core today.
FX Talking: Forecast table
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FX Daily: High Bar For A Dollar Correction
Dollar drops may continue to prove short-lived and quite small in size as bond markets remain fragile and the Fed narrative hawkish. French premium isn’t likely to leave the euro very soon, and risks remain of a test of 1.110 in the near term. In Canada, jobs numbers should have improved in September, but an October hike looks premature. A hawkish Fed and fragile market sentiment should support a slightly stronger dollar near term.
FX Daily: Hawkish Fed Minutes Keep Dollar Supported
The dollar remains supported as September FOMC minutes showed a Fed firmly expecting to hike the policy rate again later in the year. French debt markets are still unsettled and EUR/USD remains fragile. Expect more focus on political events in Paris today and also on Bank of England speakers, where centrists could turn more hawkish. September FOMC minutes published last night reflect a hawkish Fed.
FX Daily: Fed Minutes Shouldn’t Rock The Boat
A hawkish dot plot in September suggests today's FOMC minutes shouldn’t surprise on the dovish side. At the same time, softish post-meeting data probably raise the bar for a positive dollar reaction today. Eyes should remain on oil, which is back on the rise this morning, and France, which is enjoying some relief in sovereign spreads. The dollar may stabilise around current levels, but risks remain skewed to the upside.
FX Daily: French Risk Keeps Harming ECB Hawks
Alongside a direct – albeit so far relatively contained – build-up of fiscal premium, the euro continues to suffer from an unwinding of ECB rate hike expectations due to French bond turbulence. Risks remain firmly on the downside for EUR/USD. Elsewhere, markets will seek clarity on a November hike from Bank of England speakers this week. The dollar has continued to find support at the start of this week.
Eurozone Inflation Soars To 3.8% In September
This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. (“ING”) solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies).
FX Daily: Tipping Point
Markets reached a point of inflection yesterday, where the sell-off in French debt broke the narrative of ever-higher short-term market interest rates. This questions whether central banks are about to extend into policy error territory with tightening cycles. If that is the case, the ECB has less cause to tighten than the Fed, and EUR/USD can stay offered. EUR/USD is expected to stay offered as markets price in French risk premium and rethink ECB tightening.
FX Daily: Data Back In The Driver’s Seat This Week
Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Markets will look for fresh evidence of a hot US economy from this week as September figures start to flow in. Upside surprises in jobs data could take rate hike pricing for the October FOMC above 20bp. It’s not our baseline though, and we expect some stabilisation with modest downside risks for USD in the coming days. We expect a hawkish hike by the RBA tomorrow.
FOMC Preview: Fed Set To Hike 25bp In Recalibration Move
We changed our view to a 25bp Federal Reserve rate hike in September in the wake of Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at the Jackson Hole symposium. The data since then has justified that decision. Our projections for jobs and inflation suggest no need for a series of hikes.
FX Daily: Introducing the Bessent Put in Treasuries
USD: Investors greet a more interventionist Treasury While increasing liquidity buy-back operations by $2bn might seem like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic given the US national debt of $40tr, yesterday's intervention by the US Treasury has been warmly greeted by investors around the world. As ING's Padhraic Garvey writes, this unscheduled announcement tells us the Treasury's displeasure with the recent sell-off at the long end of the bond market.
FX Talking: Forecast table
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FX Daily: Dollar shrugs off oil sell-off
The US-Iran peace deal brought expected relief across the market yesterday, including the CEE region, particularly visible in the rates space. All three major markets in the region saw a rally in the IRS curve of around 10-20bp and a significant reduction in rate hike pricing. On a one-year horizon, the market has stabilised pricing around two rate hikes in the Czech Republic, including this week's meeting, half a rate hike in Poland and four and a half rate cuts in Hungary.
FX Talking: Forecast table
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Former SBC President Steve Gaines Dies At 68
MEMPHIS — Steve Gaines, longtime pastor of Bellevue Baptist Church in Memphis and a former president of the Southern Baptist Convention, died March 20 after a long battle with cancer. He was 68. Gaines served as pastor of Bellevue for more than two decades and was known as an evangelist, revival advocate and passionate preacher.
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Gov. Reynolds Issues Executive Order Requiring Annual State Risk Assessment Original
Photo: Al Drago / Getty Images News / Getty Images (Iowa) -- Governor Kim Reynolds has signed a new executive order requiring an annual statewide risk assessment. Under Executive Order 18, the Iowa Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management will conduct a yearly review of the state’s vulnerabilities — including cybersecurity threats, critical infrastructure risks, public health readiness, and overall economic security.
One killed, multiple others injured in Northwest Iowa bus crash Original
Photo: gorodenkoff / iStock / Getty Images At least one person is dead and multiple others are injured after a bus crash involving an Iowa Community College baseball team. The crash was reported along Iowa Highway 4, just west of Twin Lakes in Calhoun County, shortly before 11:30 on Wednesday morning. The Iowa State Patrol says 33 people were onboard the bus, which was carrying the Iowa Lakes Community College baseball team. The crash remains under investigation.
FX Daily: Corrective forces in play
Are you a 'hidden millionaire'? Here are 6 money mistakes to avoid. If you have a seven-figure net worth but don’t really consider yourself wealthy, you may be part of a growing population of "hidden millionaires." Vanguard applies the term to Americans who have quietly passed the million-dollar mark in recent years, primarily through saving for retirement and …
FX Daily: Attempting the re-basement trade
Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog. There’s one big event the City is looking towards this week but all signs point to zero …
FX Talking: Forecast Table
This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more
FX Daily: What US Adventurism Means For The Dollar
10 hours ago SHOTLIST: CUCUTA, COLOMBIA (JAN. 4, 2026) 1. VARIOUS OF PEOPLE AND VEHICLES CROSSING BORDER BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA 2. VARIOUS OF COLOMBIAN ARMY GUARDING SIMON BOLIVER INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE 3. VEHICLES CROSSING BORDER (TWO SHOTS)CUCUTA, COLOMBIA - JAN. 4, 2026: People passed through the Colombian–Venezuelan border on Sunday, Jan. 4, in Cucuta, Colombia. Members of the Colombian Army guard the Simon Bolivar International Bridge.
Iowa Among States Receiving Federal Voter Registration Data Original
Photo: outline205 / iStock / Getty Images (Des Moines, IA) -- Iowa is among four states that will now have access to federal voter registration data. The Iowa Attorney General’s Office sued the Biden administration last year, saying the Department of Homeland Security would not grant access to the data after an audit by the Iowa Secretary of State’s Office. The audit found 277 non-citizens voted or are registered to vote. A previous audit reported more than two thousand.
FX Daily: Tight money lending support to dollar
The Vermont senator on how to take the country back from elites — on both sides of the aisle. Bernie Sanders is not a fan of billionaires. His laser focus on economic inequality has made him one of the most influential politicians in the country. In this conversation with David Leonhardt, an …
New Information In Council Bluffs Traffic Crash
Council Bluffs Police say charges are pending against a suspect in a weekend hit-and-run that critically injured a motorcyclist on North Broadway. Police today say the motorcycle operator is identified as 17 year old Hayden Baker of Council Bluffs, who is hospitalized in very critical condition.
FX Talking: No data, no bears
The eurozone story does not look brilliant. Yet we are reasonably confident that the European Central Bank has finished cutting interest rates. And while there are genuine concerns that German fiscal stimulus will be watered down, we still think the net effect will be positive for eurozone growth and the euro into next year. We remain bullish on EUR/USD for the low 1.20s. The yen is a very different and more volatile story.
Des Moines Public Schools suing consulting firm over Superintendent hire Original
The Des Moines Public School Board is filing a lawsuit against the firm hired to facilitate the superintendent search that resulted in the hiring of Ian Roberts. School Board Chair Jackie Norris said One-Fourth Consulting LLC, doing business as JG Consulting, failed to "properly vet candidates." According to a news release, the lawsuit claims breach of contract and negligence. The district has requested a jury trial and is seeking damages "in an amount to be determined at trial."
FX Daily: Outsized tier-two data sensitivity
The US government shutdown means yesterday’s ADP report drew more attention than usual – and it wasn’t good. Payrolls dropped -32k in September, with August revised from +51k to -3k. That prompted a 4bp dovish repricing in the Dec Fed funds future, with 47bp of easing now expected. We could see a longer tail effect from this ADP print, given uncertainty around the payrolls release and general data silence, which limits directional catalysts in FX.
Former Des Moines Superintendent out of Iowa jail, now in federal custody Original
Photo: ICE Former Des Moines Public Schools Superintendent Ian Roberts is out of Iowa jail and in the custody of federal authorities. The Woodbury County Sheriff's Office says the 54-year-old is now in custody of the United States Department of Justice on a federal warrant for his arrest as of this (Thursday) morning. Below is a statement from Woodbury County Sheriff Chad Sheehan: As of Thursday October 2, 2025, Ian Roberts is no longer in the custody of the Woodbury County Sheriff’s Office jail.
FX Daily: Shutdown and slowdown weigh on the dollar
As Francesco Pesole discussed yesterday, it has indeed been the more defensive yen which has benefited the most from the US government shutdown, which went into effect overnight. The moves in FX markets have been modest so far, but investors will be wary that this could be one of the longer shutdowns seen over the last 30 years. Shutdowns have typically lasted anywhere from three to 35 days.
Trump and Netanyahu say they've agreed on a plan to end Gaza war and await Hamas to accept terms
Metadata: Topic(s): International NewsFormat(s): Text Articles Share this post: WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday they’ve agreed on a plan to end the war in Gaza, but it’s unclear whether Hamas will accept the terms. Trump on Monday laid out a 20-point plan for ending the Israel-Hamas war and establishing a postwar governance in the war-battered Palestinian territory.
Des Moines Public Schools Superintendent detained by ICE Original
Photo: Des Moines Public Schools Des Moines Public Schools superintendent Dr. Ian Roberts has reportedly been detained by ICE. In a letter to the DMPS community, School Board President Jackie Norris says they have no confirmed information on why Roberts was detained or the next potential steps. He's been the Superintendent for Des Moines Schools since July 2023. Associate superintendent Matt Smith has been appointed to the role of interim superintendent in the meantime.
FX Daily: Global bond slump not a sustainable FX driver
Trump, who questioned his opponents' health, rebuffs rumors about his own Online speculation and conspiracy theories about Trump's health exploded over the holiday weekend after the spotlight-loving 79-year-old spent a few days out of the public eye. WASHINGTON — The online world had its doubts, but yes, Donald Trump is alive. Trump’s televised appearance in the Oval …
FX Daily: Big Week for Labour Data and the US Dollar
After today's Labor Day holiday, this week's US calendar is packed with labour market data, culminating in Friday's August . Elsewhere, investors don't quite know what to make of an appeals court ruling that Trump's universal tariffs illegal. Could it be a story of lost revenues weighing on the Treasury market?
Iowa DCI investigating officer-involved shooting in Council Bluffs
One person is dead after an officer-involved shooting in Council Bluffs. The Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation (DCI) says an Iowa State Patrol trooper stopped a vehicle on I-29 on Thursday night. During the stop, DCI says 48-year-old Michael Broyles of Missouri pulled a gun and fled. After a chase involving multiple law enforcement agencies, Broyles got out of the car with a gun and fired at officers. He was hit by returning fire, and later died at a hospital. No officers were injured.
AI per il lavoro in condizioni estreme, quali tecnologie scegliere
Affinché l’intelligenza artificiale possa esprimere tutto il suo potenziale sul campo nei contesti operativi più complessi, è necessario disporre di strumenti tecnologici adeguati, capaci di interfacciarsi in real time con l’ambiente, i dati e l’operatore.
Shelby Joins Story County In U.S. Supreme Court Appeal Of Pipeline Ruling
(Harlan, IA) -- Two Iowa counties are taking their legal challenge against the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline to the U.S. Supreme Court. Shelby County joins Story County in petitioning the high court for a review. The county law would limit how close a hazardous chemical pipeline could be from homes, and require an emergency response plan ahead of any possible leak. A Circuit Court ruled in June in favor of Summit Carbon Solutions saying federal and state law already cover safety concerns.
Des Moines sentenced to life in prison for beating girlfriend to death
Photo: Jacob Wackerhausen / iStock / Getty Images A Des Moines man has been sentenced to life in prison for beating his girlfriend to death. 61-year-old Derrick Earnest was convicted of first-degree murder in May 2025 in the death of 49-year-old Holly Snowgren. Police say Earnest hit Snowgren with a wooden board, while also kicking and hitting her during an argument in an alley east of Good Park in Des Moines in April of 2024. She later died from her injuries.
Andrews, Wahls on top in Iowa State Fair straw poll results Original
Photo: STEFANI REYNOLDS / AFP / Getty Images The results of the 2025 Iowa State Fair straw poll are in. Republican State Representative Eddie Andrews won the straw poll for the Republican nomination for Governor, followed by Brad Sherman, Congressman Randy Feenstra, and State Senator Mike Bousselot. Democratic State Senator Zach Wahls narrowly won the straw poll for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate over J.D. Scholten, with Jackie Norris and Nathan Sage behind them.
2025 Iowa State Fair ranks third all-time in Iowa State Fair attendance
The 2025 Iowa State Fair is the third-biggest of all time in the Fair's history. After more than 89,000 people went through the gates on the final day of the Fair, this year's total attendance was 1,160,121. The 2024 Iowa State Fair was the most-attended Iowa State Fair of all-time. The 2026 Iowa State Fair will be from August 13-23.
Iowa HHS confirms state's first West Nile virus case of 2025 Original
Photo: MARTIN LELIEVRE / AFP / Getty Images The first 2025 case of West Nile virus in Iowa has been confirmed. The Iowa Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says the infected individual is between 41 and 60 years old from Northern Iowa. In 2024, 21 Iowans were diagnosed with West Nile virus, with one death. HHS says for the best protection against the virus, Iowans should use an insect repellant with DEET, picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, para-menthane-diol, 2-undecanone, or IR3535.
Governor Kim Reynolds directs Iowa National Guard to assist ICE
Governor Kim Reynolds is directing the Iowa National Guard to assist ICE in immigration enforcement efforts. 20 Iowa National Guard soldiers will provide administrative and logistical support to Iowa-based ICE officials in enforcing immigration laws starting in September. This authorization is approved by the Secretary of Defense through November 15, and is funded by the federal government.
G10 FX Talking: Door opens to a weaker dollar
FXFX Talking The large downward revisions to the US job numbers have undermined the Fed's position that the US labour market is 'solid'. The central bank can now have greater confidence that the summer uptick in inflation will be short-lived and restart its easing cycle this September.
FX Daily: Growth divergence and Fed can send EUR/USD below 1.150
This week’s strong USD performance has been driven by a combination of the US-EU deal, positioning adjustments, and month-end flows. These factors should start to fade now, shifting all the attention to data and the Fed. Before diving into the US calendar, it’s worth noting that the positioning squeeze means the dollar is in a less oversold position and therefore faces more balanced risks. Yesterday’s US data was mixed.
Iowa Attorney General dismisses lawsuit against Winneshiek County Sheriff Original
Photo: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images News / Getty Images Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird is dismissing the lawsuit against Winneshiek County Sheriff Dan Marx. Bird sued the Sheriff earlier this year, accusing him of violating Iowa law by posting on Facebook that his office wouldn't assist federal agents with immigration enforcement if their requests weren't within "constitutional parameters".
Federal judge temporarily blocks Iowa's new pharmacy benefit manager law
Photo: greenleaf123 / iStock / Getty Images A federal judge has temporarily blocked the enforcement of a new Iowa law regulating pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs). A lawsuit was filed by several groups, including the Iowa Association of Business and Industry, arguing that the law would raise costs on Iowans, conflict with federal law and violate the First Amendment by preventing employers from directing workers to some pharmacies over others.
FX Daily: Refocusing on US macro
Geopolitical risk has continued to diminish for markets, as the Israeli-Iranian truce has held since yesterday morning. Markets will be assessing the stability of the ceasefire in the coming days, but are clearly biased towards playing the optimistic trade, judging by how quickly the oil premium has evaporated. We believe that the negative impact of the reduced geopolitical risk on the dollar has largely played out.
Iowa House secures enough signatures to call special legislative session Original
Photo: Digital Vision The Iowa House of Representatives has secured enough signatures to call a special legislative session, in an attempt to override the Governor's veto of House File 639. The bill would've prevented private land being taken by eminent domain for carbon capture pipelines. House Republicans says 70 signatures were secured, surpassing the two-thirds requirement in the Iowa Constitution for the House to call a special session.
Tornado Warning issued for St. Louis area
A tornado warning has been issued for the St. Louis metro, as severe thunderstorms are moving through the area. Damage to roofs, windows, and cars are all possible with this system. A Flash Flood Warning is also in effect for St. Charles and St. Louis counties. We'll bring you the latest updates as severe weather continues.
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